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CONTENTS
Summer 2001, Vol. LIV, No. 3

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President’s Forum
    

More than ten years ago, historian Colin Gray asserted that, to put it bluntly, America has become accustomed to playing “away games.” America has enjoyed the great strategic advantage of deciding which wars to fight and whether to win or lose them. But now, many argue that it will not be so for long: the preferred American way of war is increasingly at risk.


Forward Presence and the Navy

The Tyranny of Forward Presence    
Daniel Gouré

A cardinal principle of Navy strategic planning is that “shaping” the international environment is a necessary and appropriate mission. However, the ever-increasing scope of forward presence exerts a tyrannical hold on the future of the Navy, a hold that threatens—in an era of constrained defense budgets and rapidly changing threats—to break the force.

“Being There” Matters—But Where?
James F. Miskel

The driving factor in determining the requirements for routine, noncrisis forward presence ought to be reasoned, objective judgments about the relative importance of the various regions of the world to the United States. One approach is to define specific criteria—and for the time being, the most sensible criteria are economic.


India and Pakistan
Thinking about the Unthinkable
   

Paul D. Taylor

In 1998 and 1999 a series of simulations and “decision events” examined the possible consequences of recent ominous developments in South Asia. The most compelling result was that none of the experts, from a variety of backgrounds, nations, and organizations, argued that the scenario—a dispute over Kashmir leading to a nuclear exchange—could not happen.

“Security Is Like Oxygen”
A Regional Security Mechanism for West Africa
 

Lieutenant
Commander Seth Appiah-Mensah, Ghana Navy

West Africa envisages an ambitious collective-security mechanism for the subregion. However, the West African subregion may not yet have the political, military, or economic means to accomplish its strategic objectives. It will have great difficulty achieving them without increased assistance— properly coordinated and synchronized—from the United States, other states, and private institutions.

Future Carrier Aviation Options
A British Perspective 

David J. Jordan

Particularly in the 1964–70 period, the Royal Navy deemed the aircraft carrier an expensive irrelevance that could not be justified. Since then the aircraft carrier has returned to prominence, with the 1998 Strategic Defence Review (SDR) planning for two carriers. Nonetheless, a number of issues need to be settled before the new vessels enter service in 2012.

Transforming the U.S. Armed Forces
Rhetoric or Reality?

Thomas G. Mahnken

The U.S. armed forces themselves have embraced—at least rhetorically—the need to transform so as to meet the demands of information-age warfare. Nevertheless, in each service, efforts at transformation have faced opposition from traditionalists who perceive threats in new ways of war.

New Insights from Old Books
The Case of Alfred Thayer Mahan

Jon Sumida

The major arguments of Mahan are very different than has been supposed. Yet the issues that prompted him to put pen to paper remarkably resemble those of today—joint operations in coastal waters, global free trade, uncertainty about what America’s proper naval role should be, and a “revolution in naval affairs.”

The Coast Guard and Navy
It’s Time for a “National Fleet”

Colin S. Gray

The U.S. Navy and the Coast Guard are natural complements, and this complementarity should be expressed practically, in a “national fleet” that is not mere rhetoric. The argument is new, but it is well established in historical practice. What should the Navy and Coast Guard do to aid each other?


Set and Drift

Doctrine Matters: Why the Japanese Lost at Midway
Jonathan B. Parshall, David D. Dickson, and Anthony P. Tully

The Perils of Paperless: Some Questions about the Latest Defense Business Trend
Patrick J. Geary


In My View


Review Essay

Where Will Presidential Autocracy Take Russia? 
The Russian Presidency: Society and Politics in the Second Russian Republic,

by Thomas Nichols
reviewed by Sergei Khrushchev


Book Reviews

The Coming Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order,
edited by Victor A. Utgoff
reviewed by Jon Greene   

Planning the Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological,
and Chemical Weapons,

edited by Peter Lavoy, Scott Sagan, and James Wirtz
reviewed by K. A. Beyoghlow    

Chemical-Biological Defense: U.S. Military Policies and
Decisions in the Gulf War,

by Albert J. Mauroni
reviewed by Pietro D. Marghella 

The Changing Role of Information in Warfare,
edited by Zalmay M. Khalilzad and John P. White
reviewed by Eric J. Dahl    

Identifying Potential Ethnic Conflict,
by Thomas S. Szayna
reviewed by Pauletta Otis    

Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future,
by Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J. Tellis
reviewed by Carmel Davis   

Japan’s Navy: Politics and Paradox, 1971–2000,
by Peter J. Woolley
reviewed by Robert Morabito    

Flying Black Ponies,
by Kit Lavell
reviewed by William M. Calhoun    

How Effective Is Strategic Bombing?
Lessons Learned from World War II to Kosovo,

by Gian P. Gentile
reviewed by Phillip S. Meilinger    

Norstad: Cold War NATO Supreme Commander—
Airman, Strategist, Diplomat,

by Robert S. Jordan
reviewed by Douglas Kinnard    

American Airpower Strategy in Korea, 1950–1953,
by Conrad C. Crane
reviewed by Wilfred F. Brown    

Decoding History: The Battle of the Atlantic and Ultra,
by W. J. R. Gardner
reviewed by Christopher Bell    

Dog Boats at War: Royal Navy D Class MTBs and MGBs, 1939–1945,
by Leonard C. Reynolds
reviewed by Carl Otis Schuster    

The Legacy of the White Oak Laboratory,
by William B. Anspacher et al.
reviewed by Frank C. Mahncke