General Accounting Office Report Criticizes Direction of Missile Defense Program

WASHINGTON - Senators Carl Levin (D-MI) and Jack Reed (D-RI) expressed grave concern today about the findings of a report on the Bush Administration's pursuit of a missile defense system. A General Accounting Office (GAO) report to be released tomorrow identifies a number of significant problems with the Pentagon's missile defense programs, including the planned fielding of a missile defense capability in 2004. The report concludes that

"[T]he President's directive to begin fielding a missile defense capability by 2004 places the [Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency (MDA)] in danger of getting off track early and impairing the effort over the long term. . . . For example, MDA is beginning system integration . . . with immature technology and limited testing. While doing so may help MDA meet the President's deadline, it also increases the potential that some elements may not work as intended. . . . If this happens, MDA will be faced either with fielding a less than credible system or likely spending more money in an attempt to develop the desired capability within the time allowed."

The report also criticizes the Pentagon for not making "an early determination of the full cost of a [missile defense] capability." The report states that such an estimate "would help decision makers more effectively evaluate which technologies to include because they offer the best capability for the funds invested."

Reed and Levin requested the GAO report, "Missile Defense: Knowledge-Based Practices Are Being Adopted, but Risks Remain" (GAO-03-441) to ascertain the progress and direction of the MDA program. In January 2002 the Pentagon exempted the MDA from the normal oversight and reviews by the military services and operational testers. Since then, there has been little apparent involvement or influence by such outside organizations in most missile defense programs.

Senator Levin said of the report: "The GAO report on missile defense clearly shows that the missile defense system the administration plans to field in 2004 will not be fully tested or proven to work under realistic conditions. Fielding such an unproven system may pick up political points with some people, but it won't contribute to the defense or security of our country."

Senator Reed said, "The GAO report provides a troubling picture of a system without direction. After spending close to $20 billion over two years on missile defense research, the administration's overall plans for missile defense remain a mystery. The President's decision to deploy an untested national missile defense system still seems to be motivated more by politics than effective military strategy."

The report identifies several potential problems for the planned fielding of missile defenses in 2004:

• Ground-based national missile defense flight tests have been "executed under non-stressing conditions that are not fully representative of the environments that the [system] would experience in combat... Testing under conditions such as these
  significantly limits the data MDA can collect on system effectiveness and readiness."
  
  
• The report says that "MDA does not plan to operationally test the [ground-based national missile defense system] before it is available for initial defensive operations [in 2004]." An operational test assesses the effectiveness of a system against the known threat and the system's suitability for combat use. The report notes that U.S. law requires that operational testing be carried out on major defense acquisition programs and assessed by the Pentagon's chief weapons tester, before a full-rate production decision is made. The purpose of the assessment is to advise the Secretary of Defense and Congress on the effectiveness of the system.
  
  
• The Pentagon's Operational Test and Evaluation officials told the GAO that because all the planned tests to date are developmental tests, which are "scripted, planned events, they do not provide the opportunity to assess how the equipment and its operators will function under unforeseen conditions."
  
  
• The Cobra Dane radar, located at the western end of the Aleutian Islands chain in Alaska, is intended to by the primary radar for tracking incoming threat missiles for the 2004 missile defense system. However, according to the report, MDA has no plans to "demonstrate the expected functionality of the radar through integrated flight tests."
  
  
• The new, three-stage booster rocket for the 2004 missile defense system has yet to fly successfully in its operational configuration, and as of August 2001 the new booster program was 18 months behind schedule. According to the report, the first flight-test of the new booster succeeded in 2001, but in the second test the booster drifted off course and had to be destroyed. Subsequently, the MDA awarded two new contracts for these new boosters. The first flight demonstrations of the boosters developed under the new contracts have yet to occur.
  
  
• The report notes that in the past, when Pentagon programs have been schedule-driven rather than event-driven, program managers have found it difficult to slow the programs if problems were identified during testing. The report states that: "MDA has been placed in a similar, pressured position as it prepares to field an initial capability by September 2004... Only limited test data is available for determining whether a credible capability will be available at that date."
  
  
• Integrated flight tests to date "did not include all of the same components that will be part of the elements deployed in 2004... For example, all tests of the Ground-based Midcourse [national missile defense] have included a surrogate booster and a prototype kill vehicle. In addition, tests of this element have not included the Cobar Dane radar that will be used in September 2004 to detect and track intercontinental ballistic missiles." The report states that the Cobra Dane radar will not actively participate in integrated flight tests at least through September 2007.

The full report will be available at the following website: http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-441 [PDF].