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AN ANALYSIS OF THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGETARY PROPOSALS FOR FISCAL YEAR 1999
 
 
March 1998
 
 
NOTES

Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in Chapter 2 are calendar years, and all years in other chapters and the appendixes are fiscal years.

Some figures in this report indicate periods of recession by using shaded vertical bars. The bars extend from the peak to the trough of the recession.

Unemployment rates throughout the report are calculated on the basis of the civilian labor force.

The tables showing CBO's estimate of the effects of the President's budgetary proposals do not include the effects of his requests for 1998 supplemental appropriations that were made after the budget was submitted.

Numbers in the text and tables of this report may not add to totals because of rounding.
 
 
Preface

This analysis of the President's budget for fiscal year 1999 was prepared at the request of the Senate Committee on Appropriations. It was produced by the staffs of the Budget Analysis, Macroeconomic Analysis, and Tax Analysis divisions under the supervision of Paul Van de Water, Robert Dennis, and Frank Sammartino. Jeff Holland wrote the summary, Daniel Kowalski wrote Chapter 1 with assistance from Mark Booth and Marjorie Miller, and John Peterson wrote Chapter 2. Appendix A was written by Jennifer Winkler, and Appendix B was written by James Baumgardner, Sandra Christensen, and Jeffrey Lemieux. The baseline revenue estimates were prepared under the direction of Richard Kasten. The estimates of the President's revenue proposals were prepared by the Joint Committee on Taxation. The principal contributors to the revenue and spending estimates and analyses are listed in Appendix C.

Sherry Snyder supervised the editing of the report, and Kathryn Quattrone supervised production. Major portions were edited by Leah Mazade and Christian Spoor. Melissa Burman provided editorial assistance. The authors owe thanks to Marion Curry, Linda Harris, Denise Jordan, Dorothy Kornegay, and Simone Thomas, who assisted in producing sections of the report. Kathryn Quattrone prepared the report for publication, with assistance from Martina Wojak-Piotrow. Laurie Brown prepared the electronic versions for CBO's World Wide Web site.

June E. O'Neill
Director
March 1998
 
 

Contents

SUMMARY

ONE - THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGETARY PROPOSALS

TWO - COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC FORECASTS

APPENDIXES

A - CBO Baseline Budget Projections
B - The Administration's Medicare Buy-In Proposals
C - Major Contributors to the Revenue and Spending Projections
 
TABLES
 
S-1. CBO Estimate of the Effect on the Surplus or Deficit of the President's Budgetary Policies
S-2. CBO Reestimate of the President's Budgetary Policies
1. CBO Estimate of the President's Budgetary Policies, 1998-2008
2. CBO Estimate of the President's Discretionary Spending Proposals Compared with the Limits on Discretionary Spending, 1999-2002
3. CBO Estimate of the President's Discretionary Spending Proposals for Fiscal Year 1999, by Function
4. CBO Estimate of Discretionary Outlays in the President's Budget Compared with Various Benchmarks
5. CBO Estimate of the Effect on Outlays of the President's Mandatory Spending Proposals
6. CBO Estimate of the President's Revenue Proposals
7. CBO Reestimate of the President's Budgetary Policies
8. CBO Estimate of the President's Discretionary Spending Proposals for Grant Programs, by Function
9. Comparison of Economic Projections, Calendar Years 1998-2003
A-1. Program Continuations Assumed in the CBO Baseline
A-2. Changes in CBO Baseline Deficits or Surpluses Since January 1998
A-3. The Budget Outlook Under Current Policies
A-4. CBO Baseline Budget Projections, Assuming Compliance with Discretionary Spending Caps
A-5. CBO Baseline Projections for Mandatory Spending
A-6. How Tight Are the Discretionary Caps?
A-7. CBO Projections of Interest Costs and Federal Debt
B-1. Medicare Buy-In for People Ages 62 to 64
B-2. Medicare Buy-In for Displaced Workers Ages 55 to 61
 
FIGURE
 
1. Wages and Salaries Plus Corporate Profits
 
BOX
 
1. The President's Supplemental Appropriation Request for the International Monetary Fund

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