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March 24, 2000
 

Honorable John R. Kasich
Chairman
Committee on the Budget
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515

Dear Mr. Chairman:

This is in response to your February 18 letter requesting information about CBO's analysis of the President's budget for fiscal year 2001. Specifically, you asked CBO to:

Table 1 shows projected budget authority and outlays for discretionary programs under the President's proposals and each of CBO's baseline variations. Table 2 shows the difference, in each year, between the President's proposals (as estimated by CBO) and each of the baseline variations. The President's request is significantly above the inflated variation for next year and slightly above most years thereafter and is substantially higher than either the freeze or capped variations. After adjusting for various timing shifts and other anomalies, CBO estimates that the President's budget would increase spending authority for discretionary programs by about 7 percent in 2001--from $621 billion in 2000 to $664 billion in 2001 (see Table 3).

Out of a total of about 900 discretionary accounts, the President has proposed to add to approximately 570 accounts, for an increase in spending authority of about $63 billion. He has requested decreases in approximately 150 accounts for a reduction of $20 billion. (The remaining 180 accounts would be held at their 2000 levels.) The net increase is $43 billion. The largest proposed increases in absolute terms are for defense, housing, highways, and school renovation. The largest proposed reductions are for the census, foreign military financing, and Navy procurement accounts (see Table 4).

I hope this information is helpful to you. If you wish any further details, the CBO staff contact is Janet Airis.

Sincerely,

Dan L. Crippen
Director
 

Attachments: Tables 1 - 4

cc: Honorable John M. Spratt Jr., Ranking Member
 
 

 
Table 1.
Estimates of Discretionary Spending Under the President's Budgetary Proposals and CBO's Baseline Projections (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
CBO's Estimate of Total Discretionary Spending in the President's Budget
 
Budget Authority
Defense 292 306 310 316 324 332 341 350 359 368 378
Nondefense 281 318 320 323 330 337 346 355 364 373 383
 
Total 573 625 629 639 654 670 687 705 723 741 761
 
Total Outlays
Defense 289 295 303 310 318 329 333 339 352 362 372
Nondefense 322 340 353 360 366 373 381 390 399 408 416
 
Total 611 635 656 670 684 701 714 729 752 770 788
 
CBO's Baseline Projections Assuming That Discretionary Spending Grows at the Rate of Inflation After 2000
 
Budget Authority
Defense 290 298 305 313 320 328 336 344 352 361 369
Nondefense 280 309 317 325 333 341 350 358 367 376 385
 
Total 570 607 622 638 654 669 685 702 719 737 754
 
Total Outlays
Defense 284 296 301 308 316 326 331 336 347 356 364
Nondefense 320 340 349 359 366 374 382 391 399 409 418
 
Total 603 635 650 667 682 700 714 727 747 764 782
 
CBO's Baseline Projections Assuming That Discretionary Spending Is Frozen at the Level Enacted for 2000
 
Budget Authority
Defense 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290 290
Nondefense 280 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296 296
 
Total 570 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586 586
 
Total Outlays
Defense 284 290 288 289 289 291 289 287 289 289 289
Nondefense 320 335 338 340 335 334 334 333 332 332 332
 
Total 603 625 627 628 623 625 622 620 621 621 621
 
CBO's Baseline Projection Assuming That Discretionary Spending Equals CBO's Estimate of the Statutory Caps Through 2002 and Grows at the Rate of Inflation Thereafter
 
Budget Authority 570 541 550 564 578 593 607 623 638 654 671
 
Outlays 603 579 571 585 600 615 630 646 662 679 699
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
 
Table 2.
Differences Between CBO's Estimate of the President's Budget and CBO's Baseline Projections for Discretionary Spending (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Difference Between CBO's Estimate of the President's Budget and the Inflated Baseline Variation
 
Budget Authority
Defense 2 8 5 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 9
Nondefense 1 9 3 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 2
 
Total 4 17 7 1 0 0 2 3 4 5 6
 
Total Outlays
Defense 5 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 8
Nondefense 3 1 4 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 2
 
Total 8 1 6 3 3 1 1 2 5 6 6
 
Difference Between CBO's Estimate of the President's Budget and the Freeze Baseline Variation
 
Budget Authority
Defense 2 16 20 26 34 42 51 60 69 78 88
Nondefense 1 22 24 27 34 41 50 59 68 77 87
 
Total 3 39 43 53 68 84 101 119 137 155 175
 
Total Outlays
Defense 5 5 15 21 30 37 44 52 63 73 83
Nondefense 3 5 15 20 31 39 48 57 67 76 84
 
Total 8 10 29 42 61 76 92 109 131 149 167
 
Difference Between CBO's Estimate of the President's Budget and the Capped Baseline Variation
 
Budget Authority 4 83 79 75 76 77 79 82 85 87 90
 
Outlays 8 56 85 85 84 87 84 83 90 92 89
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: Figures represent CBO's estimate of the President's budget minus the baseline projections.
 
Table 3.
Comparison of Discretionary Spending Enacted for 2000 with the President's Request for 2001 (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)
Defense Discretionary
Nondefense Discretionary
Total Discretionary
2000
Enacted		 2001
Request		 2000
Enacted		 2001
Request		 2000
Enacted		 2001
Request
CBO's Estimate of Discretionary Spending (excluding obligation limitations)
Budget authority 290   306   280   318   570   625
Outlays 284 295 319 340 603 635
 
Adjustments
Advance appropriations
Budget authority 0 0 14 0 14 0
Outlays 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Normalizing pay dates and removing obligation delays
Budget authority 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outlays 2 -2 3 -3 6 -6
 
Incorporating obligation limitations for transportation programs
Obligation limitations 0 0 34 37 34 37
Outlays 0 0 0 0 0 0
 
Othera
Budget authority 0 0 2 3 2 3
Outlays 0 4 -1 4 -1 8
 
CBO's Adjusted Estimate of Discretionary Spending (including obligation limitations)
Budget authority or obligation limitations 290 306 331 358 621 664
Outlays 286 296 322 341 608 637
 
Memorandum:
CBO Baseline (including obligation limitations)
Inflated variation
Budget authority or obligation limitations 290 298 314 344 604 642
Outlays 284 296 320 340 603 635
 
Freeze variation
Budget authority or obligation limitations 290 290 314 331 604 621
Outlays 284 290 320 335 603 625
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
a. Adjustments remove proposed mandatory offsets, proposed user fees, reclassifications, effects of proposed supplemental appropriations for fiscal year 2000, rescissions of prior-year budget authority, and payment shifts across fiscal years.
 
Table 4.
Large Increases and Decreases in the President's Request for Fiscal Year 2001 Compared with Levels Enacted for 2000
Budget Authority
(Billions of dollars)
Percentage
Change
2000
Enacted		 2001
Request		 Difference
Increases
 
Shipbuilding and conversion, Navy 6.9 12.3 5.4 77  
Housing certificate fund 11.4 14.1 2.7 24
Overseas contingency operations transfer fund 1.7 4.1 2.4 139
Operation and maintenance, Air Force 20.3 22.3 2.0 10
Federal-aid highways (Obligation limitation) 27.5 29.3 1.8 7
School renovation program account 0 1.3 1.3 new
Aircraft procurement, Air Force 8.3 9.5 1.2 15
RDT&E, Defensewide 9.2 10.2 1.1 12
Veterans' medical care 19.5 20.6 1.1 6
Missile procurement, Air Force 2.1 3.1 1.0 49
Children and families services programs 6.7 7.7 0.9 14
School improvement programs 3.0 3.9 0.9 30
Student financial assistance 9.4 10.3 0.9 9
Payments to states for the child care and development block grant 1.2 2.0 0.8 69
Operation and maintenance, Navy 22.5 23.3 0.8 3
Federal buildings fund * 0.7 0.8 n.a.
Community-oriented policing services 0.6 1.3 0.7 124
Corps of Engineers, operation and maintenance 1.1 1.8 0.7 63
Trust fund share of FAA operations 5.9 6.6 0.7 12
Federal prison systems, salaries and expenses 3.1 3.5 0.4 14
 
Decreases
 
Periodic censuses and programs 4.6 0.5 4.1 88
Foreign military financing program 4.8 3.5 1.3 26
Other procurement, Navy 4.3 3.3 0.9 22
Aircraft procurement, Navy 8.5 8.0 0.6 7
EPA, State and tribal assistance grants 3.4 2.9 0.5 16
RDT&E, Navy 9.0 8.5 0.5 6
RDT&E, Air Force 14.2 13.7 0.5 4
Economic support fund 2.8 2.3 0.5 17
Payments of arrearages to the United Nations and other international organizations 0.4 0 0.4 100
National defense sealift fund 0.7 0.4 0.3 45
AID, Sustainable development assistance 1.2 0 0.3 22
Military construction, Air Force 0.8 0.5 0.3 33
HHS, general departmental management 0.8 0.5 0.2 30
Military construction, Air National Guard 0.3 0.1 0.2 81
Working capital fund, Army 1.1 0.9 0.2 17
Health resources and services 4.6 4.4 0.2 4
Military construction, Army National Guard 0.2 0.1 0.2 75
SBA, salaries and expenses 0.3 0.2 0.2 49
Military construction, Navy 0.9 0.8 0.1 16
Military construction, Army 1.0 0.9 0.1 13
SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTES: RDT&E = research, development, test, and evaluation; n.a. = not applicable; FAA = Federal Aviation Administration; EPA = Environmental Protection Agency; AID = Agency for International Development; HHS = Department of Health and Human Services; SBA = Small Business Administration.
* = less than -$50 million.