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January 22, 2001
 

Honorable John W. Warner
Chairman
Committee on Armed Services
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510

Dear Mr. Chairman:

The law (10 U.S.C. 226) requires that CBO and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) submit an annual report on the technical estimating assumptions that will be used for budget estimates for national defense. This year's joint report will contain the assumptions used by each agency in preparing outlay estimates for the fiscal year 2002 budget request. OMB, however, has informed CBO staff that it will not finalize its assumptions for some time. As a result, the joint report will not be ready until later this year.

In order to provide the Congress with as much information as possible in a timely manner, CBO has prepared the enclosed tables containing our latest estimating assumptions. Table 1 shows the spendout rates that CBO expects to use in estimating the outlay impact of appropriations that will be requested for fiscal year 2002. Table 2 shows CBO's estimates of outlays from appropriations already enacted.

Once OMB releases its data, CBO will update its estimating assumptions to reflect any new information. We hope that OMB and CBO will be able to provide a joint report at that time.

If you have any questions, we would be pleased to answer them. The CBO staff contact is Kent Christensen.

Sincerely,

Dan L. Crippen
Director
 

Enclosure

Identical letter sent to: Honorable J. Dennis Hastert, Honorable Richard A. Gephardt, Honorable Carl Levin, Honorable Ted Stevens, Honorable Robert C. Byrd, Honorable Pete V. Domenici, Honorable Kent Conrad
 
 


 

TABLE 1.
CBO'S ESTIMATES OF OUTLAY RATES FOR DISCRETIONARY DEFENSE ACCOUNTS (In percent)
  First
Year
Second
Year
Third
Year
Fourth
Year
Fifth
Year

Military Personnel
 
Army 93.2   6.0   0.2   0.1   0.1  
Navy 94.5   4.9   0.2   0.1   --  
Marine Corps 95.4   4.3   0.1   --   --  
Air Force 94.0   5.6   0.1   0.1   --  
Army Reserve 90.4   8.1   0.6   0.1   0.1  
Navy Reserve 89.6   7.6   0.9   --   --  
Marine Corps Reserve 91.2   7.3   0.8   --   --  
Air Force Reserve 90.6   6.2   0.9   0.3   --  
Army National Guard 91.2   7.0   0.6   0.3   --  
Air Force National Guard 95.8   3.6   0.2   --   --  
 
Operation and Maintenance
 
Army 73.0   22.9   2.3   1.0   0.4  
Navy 79.0   14.9   3.6   1.9   0.3  
Marine Corps 68.0   24.8   5.9   0.7   0.3  
Air Force 75.0   20.1   3.2   1.1   0.3  
Defense-wide 74.3   20.1   3.1   1.6   0.5  
Army Reserve 71.5   23.0   2.7   0.5   0.3  
Navy Reserve 68.5   25.8   2.6   0.8   0.2  
Marine Corps Reserve 61.0   31.0   5.5   2.0   0.2  
Air Force Reserve 77.8   18.1   1.9   0.7   --  
Army National Guard 72.0   22.6   2.9   0.8   0.2  
Air National Guard 81.7   16.5   0.9   0.1   --  
Court of Military Appeals 87.0   7.0   1.0   --   --  
Drug Interdiction 34.4   43.3   12.5   5.0   2.2  
Inspector General 88.0   10.0   1.0   0.5   --  
Overseas Contingency Transfer Fund 68.0   22.6   5.4   2.2   1.0  
Defense Health Program  
  Operation and maintenance 81.5   15.4   1.8   0.5   0.3  
  Procurement 23.5   47.5   15.5   7.0   3.5  
  Research and development 51.0   35.5   9.0   2.5   1.0  
Former Soviet Union Threat Reduction 1.0   15.0   30.0   35.0   10.0  
Environmental Restoration 22.0   45.0   22.0   6.0   3.0  
Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid 25.0   54.5   13.5   2.0   0.5  
Quality of Life Enhancements 10.0   50.0   28.0   7.0   4.5  
Overseas Military Facility Investment 16.0   50.0   20.0   8.0   4.0  
Disposal and Lease of Real Property 16.0   50.0   20.0   8.0   4.0  
Kaho'olawe Island 30.0   40.0   20.0   10.0   --  
 
Procurement
 
Aircraft Procurement, Army 25.8   46.6   17.0   7.0   2.0  
Missile Procurement, Army 6.0   37.0   36.0   15.7   3.1  
Weapons and Tracked Combat Vehicles, Army 14.6   53.5   27.0   3.8   0.9  
Procurement of Ammunition, Army 25.0   36.0   21.0   14.0   3.0  
Other Procurement, Army 24.5   47.0   20.0   5.8   1.3  
Aircraft Procurement, Navy 15.9   39.5   33.8   7.6   1.5  
Weapons Procurement, Navy 17.5   30.0   29.5   16.5   3.7  
Procurement of Ammunition, Navy 13.0   36.1   23.0   12.0   10.0  
Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy 7.1   17.0   22.3   17.5   13.0  
Other Procurement, Navy 35.9   39.0   15.7   6.0   1.0  
Procurement, Marine Corps 22.5   42.0   22.4   8.0   2.0  
Aircraft Procurement, Air Force 24.0   45.0   19.9   7.5   2.0  
Missile Procurement, Air Force 28.4   33.0   25.0   8.4   2.0  
Procurement of Ammunition, Air Force 13.3   42.0   33.0   6.5   2.0  
Other Procurement, Air Force 60.6   27.5   8.1   2.0   1.1  
Procurement, Defense-wide 33.5   38.5   18.0   5.5   3.1  
National Guard and Reserve Equipment 15.5   29.5   35.5   10.5   4.7  
Chemical Agents and Munitions Destruction  
  Operation and maintenance 66.0   31.0   2.0   0.5   --  
  Procurement 2.0   12.0   30.0   30.0   15.0  
  Research and development 34.0   54.0   10.0   1.0   0.5  
 
Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation
 
Army 55.5   32.7   6.3   3.3   1.0  
Navy 57.5   34.0   5.8   1.6   0.7  
Air Force 60.0   35.0   4.0   0.4   0.2  
Defense-wide 46.5   42.0   9.7   1.4   0.1  
Operational Test and Evaluation 44.0   47.2   6.0   1.8   0.5  
 
Military Construction
 
Army 5.1   40.1   33.1   10.8   4.0  
Navy 5.0   58.3   28.0   4.2   2.0  
Air Force 14.0   49.0   30.5   4.0   2.0  
Defense-wide 10.8   43.0   23.0   13.4   7.0  
Army Reserve 10.6   40.0   29.5   10.2   6.0  
Navy Reserve 15.0   37.6   25.0   13.5   7.2  
Air Force Reserve 8.0   53.0   25.8   9.0   2.0  
Army National Guard 5.2   39.8   27.5   12.4   11.1  
Air Force National Guard 8.8   50.7   23.2   10.0   4.0  
Base Realignment and Closure 31.0   36.0   18.8   10.2   1.4  
NATO Infrastructure 5.0   20.0   50.0   25.0   --  
 
Family Housing
 
Army Construction 2.0   33.5   39.1   19.0   5.4  
Army Operation and Maintenance 71.5   22.0   4.7   1.0   0.3  
Navy Construction 6.2   29.0   31.0   18.0   9.0  
Navy Operation and Maintenance 59.0   29.7   6.0   2.1   1.2  
Air Force Construction 12.0   44.0   23.0   9.0   7.0  
Air Force Operation and Maintenance 69.9   23.8   4.2   1.0   1.0  
Defense-wide Construction 0.4   3.0   28.6   24.2   22.2  
Defense-wide Operation and Maintenance 64.3   15.0   8.9   8.0   2.0  
Homeowners Assistance 12.0   35.0   24.0   15.0   7.0  
 
Revolving Funds
 
National Defense Sealift Fund 54.9   35.8   6.5   1.8   0.6  
NDSF Ready Reserve Force 87.0   8.0   5.0   --   --  
National Defense Airlift Fund 24.0   45.0   19.9   7.5   2.0  
Working Capital Fund, Defense Commissary Agency 86.3   10.8   1.4   1.1   --  
 
Other Department of Defense Accounts
 
National Security Education Trust Fund 60.0   40.0   --   --   --  
General Transfer Authority 14.0   -3.0   -6.0   -3.0   -1.0  
 
Atomic Energy Defense Activities
 
Weapons Activities 65.0   30.0   5.0   --   --  
Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation 65.0   30.0   5.0   --   --  
Naval Reactors 65.0   30.0   5.0   --   --  
Office of the Administrator 65.0   30.0   5.0   --   --  
Environmental Restoration 70.0   25.0   5.0   --   --  
Defense Facilities Closure Projects 70.0   25.0   5.0   --   --  
Environmental Management Privatization 53.0   36.0   11.0   --   --  
Other Defense Activities 65.0   30.0   5.0   --   --  
Defense Nuclear Waste Disposal 80.0   20.0   --   --   --  
Remedial Action Program 50.0   50.0   --   --   --  
Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board 60.0   40.0   --   --   --  
 
All Other Defense Accounts
 
Department of Commerce Operations and Administration 85.0   10.0   5.0   --   --  
Department of Justice Salaries and Expenses 80.0   20.0   --   --   --  
FBI Salaries and Expenses 80.0   15.0   5.0   --   --  
Telecommunications Carrier Compliance Fund 50.0   50.0   --   --   --  
Radiation Exposure Compensation Trust Fund 85.0   15.0   --   --   --  
Radiation Exposure Administrative Expenses 70.0   25.0   5.0   --   --  
NSF Research and Related Activities 25.0   48.0   15.0   4.0   2.0  
FEMA Salaries and Expenses 85.0   10.0   5.0   --   --  
FEMA Emergency Management Planning and Assistance 45.0   25.0   15.0   10.0   5.0  
Coast Guard Operating Expenses 80.0   15.0   3.0   --   --  
Maritime Security Program 92.0   8.0   --   --   --  
Selective Service Salaries and Expenses 72.0   26.0   2.0   --   --  
Intelligence Community Management 62.0   30.0   6.0   2.0   --  

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization; NDSF = National Defense Sealift Fund; FBI = Federal Bureau of Investigation; NSF = National Science Foundation; FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency.

 

TABLE 2.
CBO'S ESTIMATES OF DISCRETIONARY DEFENSE OUTLAYS FROM BUDGET AUTHORITY PROVIDED FOR 2001 AND PRIOR YEARS (By fiscal year, in millions of dollars)
  2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Military Personnel
 
Army 1,446 119 31 22 --
Navy 918 65 22 -- --
Marine Corps 297 7 -- -- --
Air Force 1,050 25 18 -- --
Army Reserve 231 16 3 3 --
Navy Reserve 135 14 -- -- --
Marine Corps Reserve 36 4 -- -- --
Air Force Reserve 85 12 3 -- --
Army National Guard 302 31 11 -- --
Air Force National Guard 59 3 -- -- --
 
Operation and Maintenance
 
Army 5,476 846 321 102 19
Navy 4,770 1,369 532 92 23
Marine Corps 893 197 30 12 3
Air Force 5,371 1,000 298 70 22
Defense-wide 2,937 622 271 83 24
Army Reserve 432 73 20 5 --
Navy Reserve 278 33 10 2 --
Marine Corps Reserve 55 11 3 -- --
Air Force Reserve 379 44 13 -- --
Army National Guard 847 115 29 7 --
Air National Guard 592 34 4 -- --
Court of Military Appeals 1 -- -- -- --
Drug Interdiction 415 123 49 23 11
Inspector General 16 3 1 -- --
Overseas Contingency Transfer Fund 1,000 240 98 43 12
Defense Health Program 2,884 528 151 50 5
Former Soviet Union Threat Reduction 371 362 230 80 36
Environmental Restoration 590 289 78 39 20
Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid 48 10 1 -- --
International Sporting Competitions 10 3 -- -- --
Quality of Life Enhancements 214 85 26 7 --
Prisoner of War Payments 1 -- -- -- --
Overseas Military Facility Investment 12 3 -- -- --
Disposal and Lease of Real Property 26 17 12 9 6
Kaho'olawe Island 34 16 6 -- --
Across-the-Board Reductiona -45 -9 -4 -1 --
 
Procurement
 
Aircraft Procurement, Army 1,152 424 154 48 16
Missile Procurement, Army 1,204 729 262 57 16
Weapons and Tracked Combat Vehicles, Army 1,822 709 100 22 --
Procurement of Ammunition, Army 876 443 216 48 11
Other Procurement, Army 3,186 1,179 310 88 32
Aircraft Procurement, Navy 7,081 3,766 914 282 148
Weapons Procurement, Navy 1,186 750 320 81 26
Procurement of Ammunition, Navy 407 239 136 72 21
Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy 6,923 6,298 4,655 3,288 2,258
Other Procurement, Navy 2,427 881 296 85 54
Procurement, Marine Corps 903 412 141 49 28
Aircraft Procurement, Air Force 6,129 2,430 773 217 74
Missile Procurement, Air Force 1,806 1,032 357 123 73
Procurement of Ammunition, Air Force 521 271 62 25 14
Other Procurement, Air Force 2,959 896 253 107 46
Procurement, Defense-wide 1,581 641 225 93 21
National Guard and Reserve Equipment 214 103 38 14 5
Defense Production Act 14 14 3 -- --
Chemical Agents and Munitions Destruction 485 138 66 29 9
Indian Financing Act Incentives 2 2 2 -- --
Across-the-Board Reductionb -173 -124 -54 -29 -17
 
Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation
 
Army 2,752 711 319 113 51
Navy 3,951 753 234 85 10
Air Force 5,654 707 99 42 14
Defense-wide 5,895 1,239 172 20 11
Developmental Test and Evaluation 27 10 3 -- --
Operational Test and Evaluation 110 15 4 1 --
Across-the-Board Reductionb -137 -25 -7 -1 -1
 
Military Construction
 
Army 950 518 206 113 69
Navy 834 322 68 33 19
Air Force 750 322 55 21 3
Defense-wide 669 350 182 69 14
Army Reserve 94 50 24 11 4
Navy Reserve 32 19 11 5 1
Air Force Reserve 40 17 5 2 1
Army National Guard 215 127 68 40 10
Air Force National Guard 198 87 38 16 8
Base Realignment and Closure 815 415 205 97 77
NATO Infrastructure 171 131 43 -- --
Across-the-Board Reductiona -5 -3 -1 -1 --
 
Family Housing
 
Army Construction 165 120 55 19 2
Army Operation and Maintenance 289 65 19 8 2
Navy Construction 339 244 125 58 25
Navy Operation and Maintenance 335 84 31 11 5
Air Force Construction 270 128 60 31 5
Air Force Operation and Maintenance 257 56 22 13 --
Defense-wide Construction 3 1 -- -- --
Defense-wide Operation and Maintenance 14 8 5 1 --
Homeowners Assistance 7 2 1 -- --
Across-the-Board Reductiona -2 -1 -- -- --
 
Revolving Funds
 
National Defense Sealift Fund 393 34 7 3 2
National Defense Airlift Fund 1,278 565 213 57 17
Defense Working Capital Funds 457 104 30 10 3
Across-the-Board Reductiona -1 -- -- -- --
 
Other Department of Defense Accounts
 
National Security Education Trust Fund 3 -- -- -- --
General Transfer Authority -156 -168 -76 -36 -20
Spending of Travel Card Refunds 1 -- -- -- --
 
Atomic Energy Defense Activities
 
Weapons Activities 1,755 255 -- -- --
Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation 314 85 40 -- --
Naval Reactors 248 35 -- -- --
Office of the Administrator 4 1 -- -- --
Environmental Restoration 1,501 249 -- -- --
Defense Facilities Closure Projects 320 54 -- -- --
Environmental Management Privatization 124 107 99 82 31
Other Defense Activities 220 30 -- -- --
Defense Nuclear Waste Disposal 40 -- -- -- --
Cerro Grande Fire Activities 41 -- -- -- --
Remedial Action Program 70 -- -- -- --
Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board 8 -- -- -- --
Across-the-Board Reductiona -8 -2 -- -- --
 
All Other Defense Accounts
 
Department of Commerce Operations and Administration 1 -- -- -- --
Department of Justice Salaries and Expenses 7 -- -- -- --
FBI Salaries and Expenses 81 22 -- -- --
Telecommunications Carrier Compliance Fund 53 1 -- -- --
Radiation Exposure Compensation Trust Fund 2 -- -- -- --
Radiation Exposure Administrative Expenses 1 -- -- -- --
NSF Research and Related Activities 46 14 5 2 1
FEMA Salaries and Expenses 4 1 -- -- --
FEMA Emergency Management Planning and Assistance 11 5 3 1 --
Coast Guard Operating Expenses 51 10 7 -- --
Ready Reserve Force 1 -- -- -- --
Maritime Security Program 8 -- -- -- --
Selective Service Salaries and Expenses 6 -- -- -- --
Intelligence Community Management 59 13 3 -- --
 
Total
 
Total National Defense Outlays 104,506 35,430 13,873 6,273 3,380

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.
NOTE: NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization; FBI = Federal Bureau of Investigation; NSF = National Science Foundation; FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency.
a. These figures show the effect of the reduction in Public Law 106-554 (the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2001).
b. These figures show the effects of reductions in Public Law 106-259 (the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2001) and Public Law 106-554 (the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2001).