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January 22, 2001
Honorable John W. Warner
Chairman
Committee on Armed Services
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510
Dear Mr. Chairman:
The law (10 U.S.C. 226) requires that CBO and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) submit an annual report on the technical estimating assumptions that will be used for budget estimates for national defense. This year's joint report will contain the assumptions used by each agency in preparing outlay estimates for the fiscal year 2002 budget request. OMB, however, has informed CBO staff that it will not finalize its assumptions for some time. As a result, the joint report will not be ready until later this year.
In order to provide the Congress with as much information as possible in a timely manner, CBO has prepared the enclosed tables containing our latest estimating assumptions. Table 1 shows the spendout rates that CBO expects to use in estimating the outlay impact of appropriations that will be requested for fiscal year 2002. Table 2 shows CBO's estimates of outlays from appropriations already enacted.
Once OMB releases its data, CBO will update its estimating assumptions to reflect any new information. We hope that OMB and CBO will be able to provide a joint report at that time.
If you have any questions, we would be pleased to answer them. The CBO staff contact is Kent Christensen.
Sincerely,
Dan L. Crippen
Director
Enclosure
Identical letter sent to: Honorable J. Dennis Hastert, Honorable Richard A. Gephardt, Honorable Carl Levin, Honorable Ted Stevens, Honorable Robert C. Byrd, Honorable Pete V. Domenici, Honorable Kent Conrad
TABLE 1. CBO'S ESTIMATES OF OUTLAY RATES FOR DISCRETIONARY DEFENSE ACCOUNTS (In percent) |
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First Year |
Second Year |
Third Year |
Fourth Year |
Fifth Year |
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Military Personnel | |||||||||||
Army | 93.2 | 6.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||||||
Navy | 94.5 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -- | ||||||
Marine Corps | 95.4 | 4.3 | 0.1 | -- | -- | ||||||
Air Force | 94.0 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -- | ||||||
Army Reserve | 90.4 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||||||
Navy Reserve | 89.6 | 7.6 | 0.9 | -- | -- | ||||||
Marine Corps Reserve | 91.2 | 7.3 | 0.8 | -- | -- | ||||||
Air Force Reserve | 90.6 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | -- | ||||||
Army National Guard | 91.2 | 7.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | -- | ||||||
Air Force National Guard | 95.8 | 3.6 | 0.2 | -- | -- | ||||||
Operation and Maintenance | |||||||||||
Army | 73.0 | 22.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | ||||||
Navy | 79.0 | 14.9 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.3 | ||||||
Marine Corps | 68.0 | 24.8 | 5.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | ||||||
Air Force | 75.0 | 20.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | ||||||
Defense-wide | 74.3 | 20.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | ||||||
Army Reserve | 71.5 | 23.0 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | ||||||
Navy Reserve | 68.5 | 25.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | ||||||
Marine Corps Reserve | 61.0 | 31.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.2 | ||||||
Air Force Reserve | 77.8 | 18.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | -- | ||||||
Army National Guard | 72.0 | 22.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | ||||||
Air National Guard | 81.7 | 16.5 | 0.9 | 0.1 | -- | ||||||
Court of Military Appeals | 87.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Drug Interdiction | 34.4 | 43.3 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | ||||||
Inspector General | 88.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -- | ||||||
Overseas Contingency Transfer Fund | 68.0 | 22.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | ||||||
Defense Health Program | |||||||||||
Operation and maintenance | 81.5 | 15.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | ||||||
Procurement | 23.5 | 47.5 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | ||||||
Research and development | 51.0 | 35.5 | 9.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | ||||||
Former Soviet Union Threat Reduction | 1.0 | 15.0 | 30.0 | 35.0 | 10.0 | ||||||
Environmental Restoration | 22.0 | 45.0 | 22.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | ||||||
Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid | 25.0 | 54.5 | 13.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | ||||||
Quality of Life Enhancements | 10.0 | 50.0 | 28.0 | 7.0 | 4.5 | ||||||
Overseas Military Facility Investment | 16.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | ||||||
Disposal and Lease of Real Property | 16.0 | 50.0 | 20.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | ||||||
Kaho'olawe Island | 30.0 | 40.0 | 20.0 | 10.0 | -- | ||||||
Procurement | |||||||||||
Aircraft Procurement, Army | 25.8 | 46.6 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
Missile Procurement, Army | 6.0 | 37.0 | 36.0 | 15.7 | 3.1 | ||||||
Weapons and Tracked Combat Vehicles, Army | 14.6 | 53.5 | 27.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | ||||||
Procurement of Ammunition, Army | 25.0 | 36.0 | 21.0 | 14.0 | 3.0 | ||||||
Other Procurement, Army | 24.5 | 47.0 | 20.0 | 5.8 | 1.3 | ||||||
Aircraft Procurement, Navy | 15.9 | 39.5 | 33.8 | 7.6 | 1.5 | ||||||
Weapons Procurement, Navy | 17.5 | 30.0 | 29.5 | 16.5 | 3.7 | ||||||
Procurement of Ammunition, Navy | 13.0 | 36.1 | 23.0 | 12.0 | 10.0 | ||||||
Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy | 7.1 | 17.0 | 22.3 | 17.5 | 13.0 | ||||||
Other Procurement, Navy | 35.9 | 39.0 | 15.7 | 6.0 | 1.0 | ||||||
Procurement, Marine Corps | 22.5 | 42.0 | 22.4 | 8.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
Aircraft Procurement, Air Force | 24.0 | 45.0 | 19.9 | 7.5 | 2.0 | ||||||
Missile Procurement, Air Force | 28.4 | 33.0 | 25.0 | 8.4 | 2.0 | ||||||
Procurement of Ammunition, Air Force | 13.3 | 42.0 | 33.0 | 6.5 | 2.0 | ||||||
Other Procurement, Air Force | 60.6 | 27.5 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | ||||||
Procurement, Defense-wide | 33.5 | 38.5 | 18.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | ||||||
National Guard and Reserve Equipment | 15.5 | 29.5 | 35.5 | 10.5 | 4.7 | ||||||
Chemical Agents and Munitions Destruction | |||||||||||
Operation and maintenance | 66.0 | 31.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | -- | ||||||
Procurement | 2.0 | 12.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 15.0 | ||||||
Research and development | 34.0 | 54.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | ||||||
Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation | |||||||||||
Army | 55.5 | 32.7 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | ||||||
Navy | 57.5 | 34.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | ||||||
Air Force | 60.0 | 35.0 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | ||||||
Defense-wide | 46.5 | 42.0 | 9.7 | 1.4 | 0.1 | ||||||
Operational Test and Evaluation | 44.0 | 47.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | ||||||
Military Construction | |||||||||||
Army | 5.1 | 40.1 | 33.1 | 10.8 | 4.0 | ||||||
Navy | 5.0 | 58.3 | 28.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | ||||||
Air Force | 14.0 | 49.0 | 30.5 | 4.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
Defense-wide | 10.8 | 43.0 | 23.0 | 13.4 | 7.0 | ||||||
Army Reserve | 10.6 | 40.0 | 29.5 | 10.2 | 6.0 | ||||||
Navy Reserve | 15.0 | 37.6 | 25.0 | 13.5 | 7.2 | ||||||
Air Force Reserve | 8.0 | 53.0 | 25.8 | 9.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
Army National Guard | 5.2 | 39.8 | 27.5 | 12.4 | 11.1 | ||||||
Air Force National Guard | 8.8 | 50.7 | 23.2 | 10.0 | 4.0 | ||||||
Base Realignment and Closure | 31.0 | 36.0 | 18.8 | 10.2 | 1.4 | ||||||
NATO Infrastructure | 5.0 | 20.0 | 50.0 | 25.0 | -- | ||||||
Family Housing | |||||||||||
Army Construction | 2.0 | 33.5 | 39.1 | 19.0 | 5.4 | ||||||
Army Operation and Maintenance | 71.5 | 22.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | ||||||
Navy Construction | 6.2 | 29.0 | 31.0 | 18.0 | 9.0 | ||||||
Navy Operation and Maintenance | 59.0 | 29.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | ||||||
Air Force Construction | 12.0 | 44.0 | 23.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | ||||||
Air Force Operation and Maintenance | 69.9 | 23.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | ||||||
Defense-wide Construction | 0.4 | 3.0 | 28.6 | 24.2 | 22.2 | ||||||
Defense-wide Operation and Maintenance | 64.3 | 15.0 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
Homeowners Assistance | 12.0 | 35.0 | 24.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | ||||||
Revolving Funds | |||||||||||
National Defense Sealift Fund | 54.9 | 35.8 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | ||||||
NDSF Ready Reserve Force | 87.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
National Defense Airlift Fund | 24.0 | 45.0 | 19.9 | 7.5 | 2.0 | ||||||
Working Capital Fund, Defense Commissary Agency | 86.3 | 10.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | -- | ||||||
Other Department of Defense Accounts | |||||||||||
National Security Education Trust Fund | 60.0 | 40.0 | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
General Transfer Authority | 14.0 | -3.0 | -6.0 | -3.0 | -1.0 | ||||||
Atomic Energy Defense Activities | |||||||||||
Weapons Activities | 65.0 | 30.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation | 65.0 | 30.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Naval Reactors | 65.0 | 30.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Office of the Administrator | 65.0 | 30.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Environmental Restoration | 70.0 | 25.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Defense Facilities Closure Projects | 70.0 | 25.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Environmental Management Privatization | 53.0 | 36.0 | 11.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Other Defense Activities | 65.0 | 30.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Defense Nuclear Waste Disposal | 80.0 | 20.0 | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
Remedial Action Program | 50.0 | 50.0 | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board | 60.0 | 40.0 | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
All Other Defense Accounts | |||||||||||
Department of Commerce Operations and Administration | 85.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Department of Justice Salaries and Expenses | 80.0 | 20.0 | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
FBI Salaries and Expenses | 80.0 | 15.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Telecommunications Carrier Compliance Fund | 50.0 | 50.0 | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
Radiation Exposure Compensation Trust Fund | 85.0 | 15.0 | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
Radiation Exposure Administrative Expenses | 70.0 | 25.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
NSF Research and Related Activities | 25.0 | 48.0 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | ||||||
FEMA Salaries and Expenses | 85.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
FEMA Emergency Management Planning and Assistance | 45.0 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | ||||||
Coast Guard Operating Expenses | 80.0 | 15.0 | 3.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Maritime Security Program | 92.0 | 8.0 | -- | -- | -- | ||||||
Selective Service Salaries and Expenses | 72.0 | 26.0 | 2.0 | -- | -- | ||||||
Intelligence Community Management | 62.0 | 30.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | -- | ||||||
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SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office. | |||||||||||
NOTE: NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization; NDSF = National Defense Sealift Fund; FBI = Federal Bureau of Investigation; NSF = National Science Foundation; FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency. | |||||||||||
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TABLE 2. CBO'S ESTIMATES OF DISCRETIONARY DEFENSE OUTLAYS FROM BUDGET AUTHORITY PROVIDED FOR 2001 AND PRIOR YEARS (By fiscal year, in millions of dollars) |
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2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |
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Military Personnel | |||||
Army | 1,446 | 119 | 31 | 22 | -- |
Navy | 918 | 65 | 22 | -- | -- |
Marine Corps | 297 | 7 | -- | -- | -- |
Air Force | 1,050 | 25 | 18 | -- | -- |
Army Reserve | 231 | 16 | 3 | 3 | -- |
Navy Reserve | 135 | 14 | -- | -- | -- |
Marine Corps Reserve | 36 | 4 | -- | -- | -- |
Air Force Reserve | 85 | 12 | 3 | -- | -- |
Army National Guard | 302 | 31 | 11 | -- | -- |
Air Force National Guard | 59 | 3 | -- | -- | -- |
Operation and Maintenance | |||||
Army | 5,476 | 846 | 321 | 102 | 19 |
Navy | 4,770 | 1,369 | 532 | 92 | 23 |
Marine Corps | 893 | 197 | 30 | 12 | 3 |
Air Force | 5,371 | 1,000 | 298 | 70 | 22 |
Defense-wide | 2,937 | 622 | 271 | 83 | 24 |
Army Reserve | 432 | 73 | 20 | 5 | -- |
Navy Reserve | 278 | 33 | 10 | 2 | -- |
Marine Corps Reserve | 55 | 11 | 3 | -- | -- |
Air Force Reserve | 379 | 44 | 13 | -- | -- |
Army National Guard | 847 | 115 | 29 | 7 | -- |
Air National Guard | 592 | 34 | 4 | -- | -- |
Court of Military Appeals | 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Drug Interdiction | 415 | 123 | 49 | 23 | 11 |
Inspector General | 16 | 3 | 1 | -- | -- |
Overseas Contingency Transfer Fund | 1,000 | 240 | 98 | 43 | 12 |
Defense Health Program | 2,884 | 528 | 151 | 50 | 5 |
Former Soviet Union Threat Reduction | 371 | 362 | 230 | 80 | 36 |
Environmental Restoration | 590 | 289 | 78 | 39 | 20 |
Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid | 48 | 10 | 1 | -- | -- |
International Sporting Competitions | 10 | 3 | -- | -- | -- |
Quality of Life Enhancements | 214 | 85 | 26 | 7 | -- |
Prisoner of War Payments | 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Overseas Military Facility Investment | 12 | 3 | -- | -- | -- |
Disposal and Lease of Real Property | 26 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 6 |
Kaho'olawe Island | 34 | 16 | 6 | -- | -- |
Across-the-Board Reductiona | -45 | -9 | -4 | -1 | -- |
Procurement | |||||
Aircraft Procurement, Army | 1,152 | 424 | 154 | 48 | 16 |
Missile Procurement, Army | 1,204 | 729 | 262 | 57 | 16 |
Weapons and Tracked Combat Vehicles, Army | 1,822 | 709 | 100 | 22 | -- |
Procurement of Ammunition, Army | 876 | 443 | 216 | 48 | 11 |
Other Procurement, Army | 3,186 | 1,179 | 310 | 88 | 32 |
Aircraft Procurement, Navy | 7,081 | 3,766 | 914 | 282 | 148 |
Weapons Procurement, Navy | 1,186 | 750 | 320 | 81 | 26 |
Procurement of Ammunition, Navy | 407 | 239 | 136 | 72 | 21 |
Shipbuilding and Conversion, Navy | 6,923 | 6,298 | 4,655 | 3,288 | 2,258 |
Other Procurement, Navy | 2,427 | 881 | 296 | 85 | 54 |
Procurement, Marine Corps | 903 | 412 | 141 | 49 | 28 |
Aircraft Procurement, Air Force | 6,129 | 2,430 | 773 | 217 | 74 |
Missile Procurement, Air Force | 1,806 | 1,032 | 357 | 123 | 73 |
Procurement of Ammunition, Air Force | 521 | 271 | 62 | 25 | 14 |
Other Procurement, Air Force | 2,959 | 896 | 253 | 107 | 46 |
Procurement, Defense-wide | 1,581 | 641 | 225 | 93 | 21 |
National Guard and Reserve Equipment | 214 | 103 | 38 | 14 | 5 |
Defense Production Act | 14 | 14 | 3 | -- | -- |
Chemical Agents and Munitions Destruction | 485 | 138 | 66 | 29 | 9 |
Indian Financing Act Incentives | 2 | 2 | 2 | -- | -- |
Across-the-Board Reductionb | -173 | -124 | -54 | -29 | -17 |
Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation | |||||
Army | 2,752 | 711 | 319 | 113 | 51 |
Navy | 3,951 | 753 | 234 | 85 | 10 |
Air Force | 5,654 | 707 | 99 | 42 | 14 |
Defense-wide | 5,895 | 1,239 | 172 | 20 | 11 |
Developmental Test and Evaluation | 27 | 10 | 3 | -- | -- |
Operational Test and Evaluation | 110 | 15 | 4 | 1 | -- |
Across-the-Board Reductionb | -137 | -25 | -7 | -1 | -1 |
Military Construction | |||||
Army | 950 | 518 | 206 | 113 | 69 |
Navy | 834 | 322 | 68 | 33 | 19 |
Air Force | 750 | 322 | 55 | 21 | 3 |
Defense-wide | 669 | 350 | 182 | 69 | 14 |
Army Reserve | 94 | 50 | 24 | 11 | 4 |
Navy Reserve | 32 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 1 |
Air Force Reserve | 40 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
Army National Guard | 215 | 127 | 68 | 40 | 10 |
Air Force National Guard | 198 | 87 | 38 | 16 | 8 |
Base Realignment and Closure | 815 | 415 | 205 | 97 | 77 |
NATO Infrastructure | 171 | 131 | 43 | -- | -- |
Across-the-Board Reductiona | -5 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -- |
Family Housing | |||||
Army Construction | 165 | 120 | 55 | 19 | 2 |
Army Operation and Maintenance | 289 | 65 | 19 | 8 | 2 |
Navy Construction | 339 | 244 | 125 | 58 | 25 |
Navy Operation and Maintenance | 335 | 84 | 31 | 11 | 5 |
Air Force Construction | 270 | 128 | 60 | 31 | 5 |
Air Force Operation and Maintenance | 257 | 56 | 22 | 13 | -- |
Defense-wide Construction | 3 | 1 | -- | -- | -- |
Defense-wide Operation and Maintenance | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | -- |
Homeowners Assistance | 7 | 2 | 1 | -- | -- |
Across-the-Board Reductiona | -2 | -1 | -- | -- | -- |
Revolving Funds | |||||
National Defense Sealift Fund | 393 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
National Defense Airlift Fund | 1,278 | 565 | 213 | 57 | 17 |
Defense Working Capital Funds | 457 | 104 | 30 | 10 | 3 |
Across-the-Board Reductiona | -1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Other Department of Defense Accounts | |||||
National Security Education Trust Fund | 3 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
General Transfer Authority | -156 | -168 | -76 | -36 | -20 |
Spending of Travel Card Refunds | 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Atomic Energy Defense Activities | |||||
Weapons Activities | 1,755 | 255 | -- | -- | -- |
Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation | 314 | 85 | 40 | -- | -- |
Naval Reactors | 248 | 35 | -- | -- | -- |
Office of the Administrator | 4 | 1 | -- | -- | -- |
Environmental Restoration | 1,501 | 249 | -- | -- | -- |
Defense Facilities Closure Projects | 320 | 54 | -- | -- | -- |
Environmental Management Privatization | 124 | 107 | 99 | 82 | 31 |
Other Defense Activities | 220 | 30 | -- | -- | -- |
Defense Nuclear Waste Disposal | 40 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Cerro Grande Fire Activities | 41 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Remedial Action Program | 70 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board | 8 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Across-the-Board Reductiona | -8 | -2 | -- | -- | -- |
All Other Defense Accounts | |||||
Department of Commerce Operations and Administration | 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Department of Justice Salaries and Expenses | 7 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
FBI Salaries and Expenses | 81 | 22 | -- | -- | -- |
Telecommunications Carrier Compliance Fund | 53 | 1 | -- | -- | -- |
Radiation Exposure Compensation Trust Fund | 2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Radiation Exposure Administrative Expenses | 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
NSF Research and Related Activities | 46 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
FEMA Salaries and Expenses | 4 | 1 | -- | -- | -- |
FEMA Emergency Management Planning and Assistance | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | -- |
Coast Guard Operating Expenses | 51 | 10 | 7 | -- | -- |
Ready Reserve Force | 1 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Maritime Security Program | 8 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Selective Service Salaries and Expenses | 6 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Intelligence Community Management | 59 | 13 | 3 | -- | -- |
Total | |||||
Total National Defense Outlays | 104,506 | 35,430 | 13,873 | 6,273 | 3,380 |
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SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office. | |||||
NOTE: NATO = North Atlantic Treaty Organization; FBI = Federal Bureau of Investigation; NSF = National Science Foundation; FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency. | |||||
a. These figures show the effect of the reduction in Public Law 106-554 (the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2001). | |||||
b. These figures show the effects of reductions in Public Law 106-259 (the Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2001) and Public Law 106-554 (the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2001). | |||||
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