CBO’s Agriculture Baseline

CBO’s Agriculture Baseline

1. 1. Congressional Budget Office CBO’s Agriculture Baseline Economists Summit National Council of Farmer Cooperatives National Farmers Union American Farm Bureau Federation November 4, 2016 Jim Langley Budget Analysis Division The projections in this presentation underlie CBO's August 2016 baseline for farm programs.
2. 2. 1CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO provides objective, nonpartisan information to the Congress. The agency makes baseline projections of federal spending, revenues, and deficits under current law.
3. 3. 2CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO produces three baselines during the year: • January • March • August
4. 4. 3CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO produces estimates of the effects of changes in federal policies, including: • Legislation being developed by Congressional committees; and • Conceptual proposals being discussed in the Congress or elsewhere. CBO makes no recommendations.
5. 5. 4CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Commodity Credit Corporation Support and Related Outlays
6. 6. 5CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Commodity Outlays in CBO’s August 2016 Baseline 2016-2021 2022-2026 2016-2026 (Millions of Dollars) Feed Grains 17,071 7,588 24,659 Wheat 7,896 4,592 12,488 Rice 3,401 2,009 5,410 Upland Cotton 1,454 608 2,061 Soybeans 5,048 2,262 7,310 Peanuts 3,358 2,874 6,232 Other Commodities 1,248 823 2,071 Dairy 502 130 632 Total 39,978 20,886 60,864
7. 7. 6CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Commodity Credit Corporation Conservation Outlays
8. 8. 7CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Federal Crop Insurance Corporation Outlays
9. 9. 8CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Commodity Credit Corporation and Federal Crop Insurance Corporation Outlays
10. 10. 9CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE USDA Mandatory Outlays
11. 11. 10CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Commodity Program Outlays
12. 12. 11CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Price Loss Contract Participation
13. 13. 12CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Participation in Commodity Programs Actual Projected 2014-2018 2019-2023 Corn Price Loss Coverage 6.61% 79.49% Agriculture Risk Coverage 93.08% 20.20% Soybeans Price Loss Coverage 3.10% 69.23% Agriculture Risk Coverage 96.55% 30.42% Wheat Price Loss Coverage 42.46% 84.62% Agriculture Risk Coverage 55.56% 13.40% (Percent)
14. 14. 13CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Corn Program Prices
15. 15. 14CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Corn Price – Illustrative Distribution Around the Median
16. 16. 15CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE The estimates are meant to reflect the middle of the distribution of possible outcomes.