ERS Charts of Note

Monday, December 3, 2018

As of the end of fiscal year 2017, USDA’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) covered 23.4 million acres of environmentally sensitive land. With an annual budget of $1.8 billion, CRP was USDA’s largest conservation program in terms of spending at that time. Enrollees receive annual rental and other incentive payments for taking eligible land out of production for 10 years or more. Program acreage tends to be concentrated on marginally productive cropland that is susceptible to erosion by wind or rainfall. A large share of CRP acreage is located in the Great Plains (from Texas to Montana), where rainfall is limited and much of the land is subject to potentially severe wind erosion. Smaller concentrations of CRP land are found in eastern Washington, southern Iowa, northern Missouri, southern Idaho, and the Mississippi Delta. This chart appears in the ERS data product Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, updated October 2018.

Friday, November 30, 2018

Inflation-adjusted U.S. net cash farm income is forecast to decline $10.9 billion (10.5 percent) to $93.4 billion in 2018, while U.S. net farm income (a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates non-cash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income) is forecast to decline $10.8 billion (14.1 percent) to $66.3 billion. If forecast declines are realized, net cash farm income would be the lowest since 2009; net farm income would be 3.3 percent above its level in 2016 (its lowest since 2002). Both profitability measures are forecast below their long-term averages.

The forecast declines are due to a combination of higher production expenses, which are subtracted out in the calculation of net income, as well as a decline in the value of agricultural sector production. However, direct Government farm payments are forecast to increase $1.8 billion (15.2 percent) to $13.6 billion in 2018, reflecting higher anticipated payments for supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance and miscellaneous programs, including Market Facilitation Program payments to assist farmers in response to trade disruptions. Find additional information and analysis in Highlights From the November 2018 Farm Income Forecast, released November 30, 2018.

Thursday, November 29, 2018

In recent years, farmers have reported rising labor shortages. These anecdotal reports are supported by USDA data, which show average wages for nonsupervisory farm laborers rose more quickly since 2014 than previously. Economists consider inflation-adjusted wage growth to strongly indicate labor shortages in a given industry. From 2014 to 2017, the farm wage grew faster than the nonfarm wage, rising from 55 percent to 57 of the nonfarm wage. Between 2014 and 2017, the average hourly wage for nonsupervisory hired farmworkers rose from $11.69 to $12.47, an increase of 7 percent. In contrast, over the same period, the rise in hourly wage for all nonsupervisory production workers outside of agriculture rose from $21.34 to $22.05, an increase of just over 3 percent. Inflation-adjusted wage growth slowed in 2017 because of lower rates of nominal (non-adjusted) wage growth and an uptick in inflation—a trend that has continued into 2018. As of April 2018, nonsupervisory farm wages averaged $12.74 per hour in nominal terms, an increase of 3 percent over April 2017. This chart appears in the ERS report, “Farm Labor Markets in the United States and Mexico Pose Challenges for U.S. Agriculture,� released in November 2018.

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

At the grocery store, fruits and vegetables are sold in many forms, including canned, frozen, dried, juiced, and fresh products. However, which forms are less expensive? ERS researchers estimated average retail prices paid in 2016 for 24 fresh fruits, 40 fresh vegetables, and 90 processed fruits and vegetables, measured in cup equivalents. A cup equivalent is generally the edible portion that will fit in a 1-cup measuring cup; for raw leafy vegetables, a cup equivalent is 2 cups, and for raisins and other dried fruits, it is one-half cup. As seen in the examples of spinach, carrots, and apricots, neither fresh nor processed forms turn out to be consistently less expensive to consume across fruit/vegetable types. For instance, spinach is more expensive in its fresh, boiled form than when frozen or canned, while carrots are less expensive in fresh, boiled form than when frozen or canned. Relative retail prices may reflect the different prices received by growers, as well as differences in processing, handling, and spoilage costs, which vary by form and product. This chart is based on the Fruit and Vegetable Prices on the ERS website.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Elderly households (those with at least one individual age 65 or older) tend to be less affected by economic downturns, possibly because they have more fixed incomes from Social Security or pensions that do not depend on employment. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey, ERS researchers found that from 2005 to 2010, elderly households did not significantly change their share of food spending allocated to grocery stores and other food-at-home retailers or their share allocated to eating-out options. By 2016, elderly households had reduced their share of food-at-home expenditures by about 3 percentage points and increased their share of spending at fast-food places, although the fast-food share remained below that of non-elderly households. In contrast to elderly households, non-elderly households spent less of their food budgets at full-service restaurants and more on food at home in 2010 and 2016 than in 2005. This chart appears in “Food Spending of Middle-Income Households Hardest Hit by the Great Recession� from ERS’s Amber Waves magazine, September 2018.

Monday, November 26, 2018

The United States exports a variety of agricultural products to destinations around the world. Although the total value of agricultural exports rises and falls depending on market and economic conditions, the shares of individual export categories within that total are generally more stable. The highest valued export product categories include horticultural products (like fruits and vegetables), oilseeds and oilseed products, livestock products, and grains and animal feeds. However, these top categories have trended differently in terms of value over time. In recent years, the value of grains and animal feeds has fallen by 5 percent, reducing its share of total agricultural exports from 23 percent to 21 percent since 2015. The other top commodity groups have risen in value since 2015, but their shares have remained stable due to overall growth in agricultural export value. Among the lower valued commodity groups, the cotton, tobacco, and seeds category has grown significantly since 2015, rising by 31 percent in value and increasing its share of total agricultural exports from 5 percent to 6 percent. This chart appears in the ERS report, "Ag and Food Statistics: Charting the Essentials, October 2018.�

Friday, November 23, 2018

Conservation tillage reduces soil disturbance and keeps soil covered, thereby conserving soil moisture and lessening erosion. When used in conjunction with other practices, it can also help promote soil health. No-till, a type of conservation tillage where farmers plant directly into remaining crop residue without tilling, accounted for the majority of conservation tillage acreage for wheat (45 percent of total acres) in 2017 and soybeans (40 percent of total acres) in 2012. ERS researchers found that adoption of no-till, in general, increased from 2000 to 2007—particularly for wheat (2004-2009) and soybeans (2002-2006). In later periods, no-till adoption increased more slowly for wheat (2009-2017) and may have declined for soybeans (2006-2012) and cotton (2007-2015). Data for corn indicate only modest gains in adoption of no-till between 2005 and 2016. This chart appears in the ERS report, Tillage Intensity and Conservation Cropping in the United States, released in September 2018.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Thanksgiving meals typically include such iconic dishes as pumpkin pie and stuffing, and turkey is usually the centerpiece. This year and last, wholesale turkey prices have been sharply lower than in years past. Do lower wholesale prices mean lower turkey prices at the grocery store? Not always. While wholesale and retail turkey price movements are historically correlated on a yearly basis, seasonal factors can disrupt this correlation. Commonly in the past, retail turkey prices in the Thanksgiving holiday season were near annual low points, while wholesale prices were near yearly highs. Between 2014 and 2016, the November markup from wholesale to retail prices for turkey was 18 percent, compared with an average 38-percent markup over the entire 2-year period. Beginning in 2017, however, wholesale turkey prices began a sustained decline that was not reflected in retail price movements. The retail markup in November 2017 reached 78 percent, compared with 65 percent for this year, and a higher markup is expected in 2018. The data suggest that the past relationship between wholesale and retail Thanksgiving turkey prices may be fading, as retail prices have become less responsive to downward movements in wholesale prices. This chart appears in the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook newsletter released in November 2018.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Cranberries may make a traditional appearance on many tables this Thanksgiving, but strawberries are still America’s favorite berry. According to ERS’s food availability data, 16.8 pounds of berries per person were available for consumption in 2016, up from 6.5 pounds per person in 1990. Improvements in product quality, year-round availability, and convenient packaging, along with increased awareness of the health benefits of eating berries, have contributed to the rise in consumer demand. In 2016, a total of 9.8 pounds of strawberries per person were available for consumption—more than for any other berry. Fresh strawberry availability has steadily increased over the past two decades, climbing from 3.2 pounds per person in 1990 to 8 pounds per person in 2016. Cranberries came in second in 2016 at 3 pounds available per person, representing a 129-percent increase since 1990 that was driven by growth in cranberry juice availability. Blueberries came in third at 2.4 pounds per person in 2016, up from 0.4 pounds in 1990. Most of that increase was in fresh blueberry availability. The data for this chart are from ERS’s Food Availability (Per Capita) Data System, updated October 29, 2018.

Monday, November 19, 2018

From 2015 to 2017, California and Florida accounted for 86 percent and 13 percent of U.S. avocado production, respectively, while the west-central Mexican States of Michoacán and Jalisco accounted for 78 percent and 8 percent, respectively, of Mexican production. A USDA phytosanitary workplan implemented between 1993 and 2007 allowed Hass avocados from certain municipalities in Michoacán to enter increasingly larger portions of the United States, making Michoacán the leading supplier of fresh avocados to the U.S. market. From 2015 to 2017, growers and shippers in Michoacán supplied about 72 percent of total deliveries (imports and domestic production) of fresh avocados in the United States; California supplied about 13 percent. In 2016, the United States implemented a new phytosanitary workplan that allows fresh avocados to be imported from any Mexican State subject to a “systems� approach. That is, farm-specific risk management measures are applied, which together achieve the desired level of phytosanitary protection. Growers in Jalisco are working to meet the requirements of this new workplan in the hope of joining their counterparts in Michoacán in exporting fresh avocados to the United States. This chart is drawn from data discussed in the ERS Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook newsletter released in March 2018.

Friday, November 16, 2018

As part of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), respondents are asked whether they have seen nutrition or health information about foods on restaurant menus and, if so, whether they used that information to decide what to order. An ERS analysis of NHANES data from 2007-14 reveals that adults who reported seeing and using information on a full-service or a fast-food restaurant menu consumed 284 or 307 fewer calories per day, respectively, than did adults who reported seeing but not using the information—a calorie intake gap that is 14-15 percent of a 2,000-calorie reference diet. In full-service restaurants, wait staff take consumers’ orders for food from their tables and consumers pay after the meal is eaten. In fast-food restaurants, consumers order and pay for food from a counter before eating. The energy intake gaps between information users and nonusers can be attributed to differences in calories obtained from various sources, including grocery stores, supermarkets, and other stores. For instance, fast-food restaurant menu label users consumed 271 and 1,296 calories per day from fast-food restaurants and from stores, respectively, while nonusers consumed 345 calories per day from fast-food restaurants and 1,483 from stores. The statistics for this chart are from the ERS report, The Association Between Restaurant Menu Label Use and Caloric Intake, released on October 31, 2018.

Thursday, November 15, 2018

Compared to traditional medical delivery systems, telehealth—health services or activities conducted through the internet—allows people to more actively participate in their health care. It also facilitates timely and convenient monitoring of ongoing conditions. To better understand the factors affecting telehealth use, ERS researchers examined rural residents’ participation in three telehealth activities: online health research, online health maintenance (such as contacting providers, maintaining records, and paying bills), and online health monitoring (the transmission of data gathered by remote medical devices to medical personnel). The ERS analysis looked at a number of socioeconomic factors—including family income, educational attainment, age, and employment type and status—that may affect a person’s choice to engage in telehealth activities. Findings show that participation rates for telehealth activities in 2015 increased with the level of educational attainment. For example, rural residents with college degrees were over 5 times more likely to conduct online health research than residents without a high school diploma, and more than 10 times as likely to engage in the other telehealth activities. This chart appears in the November 2018 ERS report, Rural Individuals’ Telehealth Practices: An Overview.

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

In 2017, 4.7 percent of U.S. households reported getting emergency food from food pantries. Food pantries distribute unprepared foods for families to prepare at home. Using a food pantry is more common among food-insecure households—those that have difficulty at some time during the year providing enough food for all their members—than among the general population or food-secure households. In 2017, 26 percent of food-insecure households used a food pantry—more than five times the rate for all U.S. households—which is down from 28.2 percent in 2015 but higher than the 18.6 percent that visited food pantries in 2001. The greater use of food pantries in recent years is likely due in part to greater need, as the national prevalence of food insecurity was higher in 2017 than it was in 2001. In addition to more need, greater use of food pantries over time may also be due to an increase in the number of food pantries. This chart appears in “Food Pantries Provide Emergency Food to More Than One-Quarter of Food-Insecure Households� in the November 2018 issue of ERS’s Amber Waves magazine.

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

ERS’s annual International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) estimates and projects levels of food insecurity at a national level for 76 low- and middle-income countries. Using a demand-oriented model, ERS projects per capita food consumption based on prices and income and evaluates it against a daily caloric target of 2,100 calories per person per day, a level necessary to sustain a moderately active adult. In 2018, 21 percent of the population in the 76 studied countries is estimated to be food insecure. This means that about 782 million people—out of a population of 3.7 billion in the studied countries—consume less than 2,100 calories a day. By 2028, based on projected income growth and sustained low food prices, the share and the number of food-insecure people in these countries are expected to decline to 10 percent and 446 million, respectively. Projected income growth is positive in almost all countries included in the analysis, although growth rates are lower than in the early 2000s. The biggest improvements are projected for Asia, where strong economic growth, particularly in India and Southeast Asia, combined with slowing population growth, contribute to increasing per capita incomes and expected improved food security by 2028. This chart appears in “International Food Security Expected To Improve, But Regional Differences Persist� in ERS’s November 2018 Amber Waves magazine.

Friday, November 9, 2018

Rural veterans find themselves in a better employment position today than they did in the years following the Great Recession. The unemployment rate for rural veterans has declined since peaking at 10.3 percent in 2010. In 2017, it stood at 4.6 percent, its lowest rate in the last decade. The unemployment rate for young rural veterans (ages 18 to 34) has seen a large decline too—from a high of 15.7 percent in 2009 to 7.1 percent in 2017. Young transitioning veterans can face high unemployment due to service-related disability or a lack of civilian work experience, which become greater obstacles when the economy is weak. Although the post-recession national economic upturn is driving a drop in unemployment for all veterans, a concerted national effort to hire veterans also appears to be helping close the employment gap for young veterans. That effort includes greater recognition of the skills veterans learn during their service—such as discipline and timeliness—and the value of those skills on the job. This chart provides an update to the ERS report, Rural Veterans at a Glance.

Thursday, November 8, 2018

The decline in U.S. rural population, which began in 2010, has reversed for the first time this decade. In 2016-17, the rural population increased by 0.1 percent (adding 33,000 people). This recent upturn in rural population growth stems from increasing rates of net migration, which includes urban-to-rural migration as well as immigration from foreign countries. Rural net migration increased from −0.25 percent in 2011-12 to essentially zero in 2016-17. During the same period, population growth from natural change (births minus deaths) dropped from 0.12 percent to 0.08 percent. This continues a long-term downward trend in growth rates from natural change due to lower fertility rates, an aging population, and, more recently, increasing mortality rates for some age groups. While natural change has gradually trended downward over time, net migration rates tend to fluctuate in response to economic conditions. With growth from natural change projected to continue falling, future population growth in rural America will depend more on increasing net migration—which has coincided with declining rural unemployment, rising incomes, and declining poverty since 2013. These improved labor market conditions have allowed rural areas to retain more residents and attract more newcomers. The total rural population has remained close to 46.1 million since 2013. This chart appears in the November 2018 ERS report Rural America at a Glance, 2018 Edition.

Wednesday, November 7, 2018

There will be ample cranberry supplies for U.S. consumers this holiday season. U.S. cranberry production in 2018 is forecast at 8.63 million barrels (or 863 million pounds), up 3 percent from a year ago. If achieved, 2018 production will be the third largest in history; the record of 963 million pounds was produced in 2016. Wisconsin is the leading producer of cranberries, accounting for about half of total area harvested over the past 3 years. The State’s production represents nearly two-thirds of the national total. Despite some frost damage, this year’s production in Wisconsin is anticipated to be 550 million pounds, up 2 percent from last year and the State’s third largest following record output of 613 million pounds in 2016 (and 602 million in 2013). Larger-than-usual crops are also expected in other top-producing States, except Massachusetts—the second largest producer—where weeks of dry weather limited berry size, causing a slight reduction in output. Ample production and large stocks in storage will likely continue to put pressure on cranberry grower prices during the 2018/19 marketing season (September-August). This chart is based on ERS Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook newsletter, released September 2018.

Tuesday, November 6, 2018

In 2016—of a typical dollar spent by U.S. consumers at grocery stores and restaurants on domestically produced food—50.6 cents were received by hired labor in the form of salaries and benefits. That marked the second year in a row that labor’s share was over half of the food dollar, reflecting higher spending on eating out, as well as small increases in labor costs for foodservice workers over time. Foodservice labor—servers, cooks, and others—received 22.3 cents of the food dollar in 2016, up from 21.7 cents in 2015. Salaries and benefits for non-foodservice labor were down 0.3 cent from 2015. After foodservices, the next two largest sources of labor costs in 2016 were retailing and wholesaling (11.1 cents) and food processing and packaging (8.7 cents). Farm production relies less on hired labor than other food related industries do, and—combined with agribusinesses that provide specialized farm inputs—contributed only 2.1 cents of 2016’s food dollar labor costs. Many factors drive year-to-year changes in labor’s share of the food dollar, from the adoption of labor-saving technologies to changes in average wage rates. This chart is from ERS’s Food Dollar Series data product.

Monday, November 5, 2018

Each August, ERS estimates the previous year’s farm sector cash receipts—the cash income received from agricultural commodity sales. Historical State-level estimates provide baseline information that can be useful in gauging the financial impact of unexpected events that affect the agricultural sector, such as the recent hurricane that struck Georgia and surrounding States. In 2017, cash receipts for all U.S. farm commodities totaled $374 billion. Georgia contributed about 2 percent ($9 billion) of that total, ranking 15th among all States. Broilers (chickens that are raised for meat) accounted for the largest share of cash receipts in Georgia at $4.4 billion (49 percent of Georgia’s cash receipts)—followed by cotton at $878 million (10 percent of Georgia’s receipts. Georgia led the Nation in cash receipts from broilers and ranked second in cotton cash receipts, behind Texas. Georgia also led the country in cash receipts from peanuts and pecans—accounting for 47 percent and 38 percent, respectively, of the U.S. totals for those commodities—although they amounted to a smaller share of the State’s total cash receipts. This chart uses data from the ERS U.S. and State-Level Farm Income and Wealth Statistics data product, updated August 2018.

Friday, November 2, 2018

Since Mexico imposed retaliatory tariffs against the United States in June, export volumes (June to August) of U.S. fresh and frozen pork products subject to the tariffs have maintained the same levels as last year. Typically accounting for more than 97 percent of monthly U.S. pork shipments to Mexico, these exports consist mainly of fresh and frozen ham and shoulder cuts. The lower prices of 2018 U.S. ham primal cuts—averaging 20 percent lower in June-August 2018 than in June-August 2017—are likely a significant offset to the import tariff. In contrast to stable exports of fresh and frozen pork products, a different category of pork exports, that includes some processed pork products as well as cooked hams and shoulders, is down almost 45 percent in the June-August period. This chart is drawn from data in the ERS Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook newsletter, released in October 2018.