Short-Term Energy Outlook

Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

EIA expects average U.S. solar generation will rise from 212,000 megawatt hours per day (MWh/d) in 2017 to 268,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 27%) and to 303,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 13%). In recent years, the industry has seen a shift from fixed-tilt solar PV systems to tracking systems.. Although tracking systems are more expensive than fixed-tilt systems, revenue from the additional electricity generated by following the path of the sun across the sky often exceeds the increased cost.

After declining by 0.8% in 2017, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 3.0% in 2018. This increase largely reflects more natural gas consumption in 2018 for heating during a colder winter and for electric generation to support more cooling during a warmer summer than in 2017. EIA expects emissions to decline by 1.2% in 2019 because it forecasts that temperatures will return to near normal. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

U.S. Renewables & CO2 Emissions Summary
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
^aConventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy. ^bIncludes electricity and heat generation ^cOther renewables includes biofuels production losses and co-products ^dIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
U.S. Renewables Consumption	(quadrillion Btu)
Geothermal	0.210	0.210	0.222	0.230
Hydropower^a	2.472	2.767	2.607	2.493
Solar	0.569	0.774	0.965	1.087
Waste Biomass	0.503	0.495	0.494	0.486
Wind	2.094	2.346	2.613	2.897
Wood Biomass	2.131	2.187	2.220	2.159
Electricity Subtotal^b	7.960	8.759	9.106	9.322
Biomass-based Diesel	0.291	0.280	0.283	0.350
Ethanol	1.182	1.192	1.194	1.203
Biofuels Subtotal	1.473	1.473	1.472	1.553
Other^c	0.801	0.821	0.825	0.817
Total	10.233	11.053	11.413	11.693
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel	(million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels	2,326	2,342	2,386	2,396
Natural Gas	1,494	1,474	1,617	1,618
Coal	1,354	1,316	1,284	1,208
Total Energy^d	5,186	5,144	5,299	5,234

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Related Tables
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors	PDF
Table 8a. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption	PDF
Table 8b. U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation and Capacity	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF

Related Figures
U.S. renewable energy supply	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG

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