Long-Term Economic Analysis

In addition to projecting economic developments over the next 10 years, CBO also projects economic conditions for the decades ahead—primarily as a part of developing CBO’s Long-Term Budget Outlook. Key factors affecting the long-term economic outlook include the aging of the population, productivity growth, and interest rates. CBO analyzes the long-term economic effects of alternative budget policies as well.

BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2018

(As of )

OUTLAYS

$4.1 Trillion

REVENUES

$3.3 Trillion

DEFICIT

$793 Billion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$15.7 Trillion

  • Report
    The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for Fiscal Policy

    Expanding on its earlier long-term baseline projections, CBO shows how the federal budget and the economy would evolve under three scenarios in which laws would be changed to continue certain policies now in place, leading to higher debt.

  • Report
    The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    If current laws remain generally unchanged, CBO projects, federal budget deficits and debt would increase over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP in the nation’s history by far.

  • Report
    An Overview of CBOLT: The Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Model

    CBOLT is the main analytical tool that CBO uses to make long-term projections of the economy and federal budget. Those projections help shed light on fiscal challenges that extend beyond CBO’s standard 10-year projection window.

  • Report
    The 2017 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, the United States would face steadily increasing federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP ever experienced in this country.