Released December 03, 2018 13:45 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Map 3413

Karen Lund

This geologic map of the central Beaverhead Mountains portrays a complex geologic history of depositional basin development interspersed with deformational events. Generalized geology for young basins, compiled from sources on both sides of the range, is combined with newly mapped bedrock geology to better integrate geologic development of the map area.

Successive extensional basins were obliquely oriented across deformed strata of each preceding basin and of the Paleoproterozoic basement. Strata deposited in these basins include (1) thick fine-grained arkosic strata of the Mesoproterozoic Lemhi basin deposited on Paleoproterozoic basement with shoreline exposed on the east side of the map, (2) siliciclastic and carbonate strata of the Late Neoproterozoic-early Paleozoic miogeocline that were deposited in deeper environments to the west and interfingered with cratonal basin deposits to the east, and (3) generally coarse deposits in several nested, fault-bounded Eocene to Holocene basins.

Syndepositional structural disruption including tilting and angular unconformities is present within strata and between stratigraphic packages formed during the different basin-filling events. Cretaceous, east-northeast-directed thrust faults inverted Mesoproterozoic and Neoproterozoic-Paleozoic basins and stacked strata from diverse stratigraphic packages and different depositional settings. The thrust plates rotated as they impinged on the Paleoproterozoic arch on the east side of the map, resulting in complex fault geometries that present as thrust faults to oblique reverse and tear (or ramp) fault along different fault segments. Cenozoic extension caused successive normal-fault basins of several orientations. Eocene volcanic rocks are preserved in fault-bounded depositional basins formed during the onset of Cenozoic extension. Eocene basins were obliquely overprinted by Oligocene-Miocene normal-fault basins. Holocene basins developed during steep normal faulting that formed the present Basin and Range topography.

This geologic map of the central Beaverhead Mountains is mapped at 1:24,000 scale and printable at 1:50,000 scale. These data were collected between 1997 and 2017 and synthesized to provide significant new stratigraphic and structural data and interpretations.

Released December 03, 2018 10:28 EST

2019, Journal of Hydrology (568) 877-890

Ramon C. Naranjo, Richard Niswonger, David Smith, Donald O. Rosenberry, Sudeep Chandra

Richard Niswonger, David Smith, Donald O. Rosenberry, Sudeep Chandra, editor(s)

Periphyton is important to lake ecosystems, contributing to primary production, nutrient cycling, and benthic metabolism. Increases in periphyton growth in lakes can be indicative of changes in water quality, shifts in ecosystem structure, and increases in nutrient fluxes. In oligotrophic lakes, conservationists are interested in characterizing the influence of hydrological drivers on excessive periphyton growth along nearshore areas. We collected nutrient samples bi-weekly from groundwater and surface water during a 9-month monitoring period to evaluate the timing and availability of nutrients to eulittoral periphyton in Lake Tahoe. Groundwater discharge rates were measured synoptically using seepage meters and estimated indirectly using continuous head gradient measurements and aquifer properties estimated by slug tests. The discharge measurements made from the seepage meter measurements provide information about the spatial variability perpendicular from shore along and the change in groundwater discharge due to wave action. Algal biomass sampled from substrates and observed using underwater photographs were used to correlate seasonal growth and nutrient concentrations in groundwater and lake water. Results indicate that groundwater and nutrient discharge are temporally variable due to seasonal changes in recharge within the watershed, wave action, and lake stage. Groundwater discharge was enhanced by the seasonally-low lake stage and episodic recharge caused by precipitation falling as rain in the watershed. Increases in dissolved phosphorus and nitrate in the lake during winter are attributed to groundwater discharge and correlates to increases in algal biomass in the nearshore area. Results indicate that nutrient-rich groundwater discharge appears to stimulate seasonal periphyton blooms along the eulittoral zone of Lake Tahoe.

Released December 03, 2018 09:55 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5132

Kellan R. Strauch

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 6.5-mile reach of the Salamonie River at Portland, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the Salamonie River at Portland, Ind. (station 03324200). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained from the USGS National Water Information System web interface at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN or from the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (site PORI3) at https:/water.weather.gov/ahps/.

Flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the current (2018) stage-discharge relation at the Salamonie River at Portland, Ind., streamgage.

The hydraulic model then was used to compute nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from 10.7 ft or near bankfull to 18.7 ft, which equals the highest point on the streamgage rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles then were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging data having a 0.49-ft root mean square error and 4.9-ft horizontal resolution resampled to a 10-ft grid to delineate the area flooded at each stage. The availability of these maps, along with information regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage, will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Released November 30, 2018 17:15 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5116

M. Alisa Mast

The purpose of this report is to evaluate the use of site-specific regression models to estimate metal concentrations at nine U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations on the Animas and San Juan Rivers in Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah. Downstream users could use these regression models to determine if metal concentrations are elevated and pose a risk to water supplies, agriculture, and recreation. Multiple linear-regression models were developed by relating metal concentrations in discrete water-quality samples to continuously monitored streamflow and surrogate parameters (specific conductance, pH, turbidity, and water temperature) collected at the U.S. Geological Survey stations. Models were developed for dissolved and total concentrations of aluminum, arsenic, cadmium, copper, iron, lead, manganese, and zinc using water-quality samples collected from 2005 to 2017 by several Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies using different collection methods and analytical laboratories. Model performance varied but, in general, models for dissolved metals did not perform as well as those for total metals. Dissolved metals generally were correlated to specific conductance or streamflow and total metals generally were better correlated with turbidity.

Explanatory variables in the models reflected hydrologic and geochemical processes within the basin. A larger number of regression models were statistically significant for the most upstream sites, where metal concentrations were elevated by drainage from abandoned mines and mineralized bedrock. Models generally did not perform as well at downstream sites, especially for dissolved metals, which occurred at lower concentrations than at the upstream sites. In the lower reaches of the rivers, the input of more alkaline water from tributaries and groundwater reduced metal solubility and diluted metal concentrations. The number and distribution of samples in the calibration datasets also may have been a factor in model development. At some sites on the San Juan River, calibration datasets were more limited and did not represent the full range of observed hydrologic and water-quality conditions, especially during storm events in summer and fall. Recommendations for model use are given based on estimates of model precision, biases, and adequacy of the calibration datasets in terms of the number of samples and representativeness of the observed range of streamflow and water-quality conditions.

Released November 30, 2018 15:30 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1170

Christopher G. Smith, Joseph W. Long, Rachel E. Henderson, Paul R. Nelson

Dauphin Island and Little Dauphin Island, collectively, make up a geomorphically complex barrier island system located along Alabama’s southern coast, separating Mississippi Sound from the Gulf of Mexico and Mobile Bay. The barrier island system provides numerous economical (tourism, fisheries) and natural (habitat for migratory birds, natural protection of inland and coastal areas from storms) benefits to the State of Alabama. The complex geomorphology of Dauphin Island is partly a response to temporal variations in the direction and magnitude of sediment transport along and across the barrier island system. In this report, we present open-ocean and back-barrier shoreline change rates at different time scales to evaluate the island’s dominant behavior (expansion or widening and contraction or narrowing) over the last 75 years. The spatial and temporal variability of barrier island width provides baseline and historical context for potential restoration alternatives being considered as part of the Alabama Barrier Island Restoration Feasibility Study. Open-ocean shorelines have eroded continuously over the last 75 years, with rates ranging from 1.5 to 4 meters per year. Back-barrier shorelines are less uniform than open-ocean shorelines, but are, on average, also eroding over the same period. Periods of back-barrier progradation are observed but generally occur during discrete, large altering events like hurricanes that overwash or breach narrow sections of the barrier island. Because both shorelines are eroding, the width of the island has decreased during the last 75 years. The section to the west of a breach that opened during Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina (known as Katrina Cut) exhibits a steady, rapid decrease in width while the section to the east of the breach has gone through periods of expansion and contraction and has only recently begun slowly narrowing. Although the recent trends indicate declining widths, the back-barrier progradation rates in this area were the highest compared to other time periods, which abated extreme narrowing caused by increased open-ocean shoreline erosion. These data and the interpreted results indicate that both short-term (annual) and long-term (decadal) cross-barrier sediment exchange is a key component of sustaining barrier island width. Therefore, any mechanisms that influence this exchange, whether from natural processes (overwash, breaching, or inlet dynamics) or human activities (development, post-storm recovery, restoration), should be considered when evaluating the long-term sustainability of barrier island systems.

Released November 30, 2018 15:07 EST

2018, Elementa: Science of the anthropocene (6) 1-15

Sandra L. McLellan, Elizabeth P. Sauer, Steven R. Corsi, Melinda J. Bootsma, Alexandria B. Boehm, Susan K. Spencer, Mark A. Borchardt

Despite modern sewer system infrastructure, the release of sewage from deteriorating pipes and sewer overflows is a major water pollution problem in US cities, particularly in coastal watersheds that are highly developed with large human populations. We quantified fecal pollution sources and loads entering Lake Michigan from a large watershed of mixed land use using host-associated indicators. Wastewater treatment plant influent had stable concentrations of human Bacteroides and human Lachnospiraceae with geometric mean concentrations of 2.77 × 10⁷ and 5.94 × 10⁷ copy number (by quantitative PCR) per 100 ml, respectively. Human-associated indicator levels were four orders of magnitude higher than norovirus concentrations, suggesting that these human-associated bacteria could be sensitive indicators of pathogen risk. Norovirus concentrations in these same samples were used in calculations for quantitative microbial risk assessment. Assuming a typical recreational exposure to untreated sewage in water, concentrations of 7,800 copy number of human Bacteroides per 100 mL or 14,000 copy number of human Lachnospiraceae per 100 mL corresponded to an illness risk of 0.03. These levels were exceeded in estuarine waters during storm events with greater than 5 cm of rainfall. Following overflows from combined sewer systems (which must accommodate both sewage and stormwater), concentrations were 10-fold higher than under rainfall conditions. Automated high frequency sampling allowed for loads of human-associated markers to be determined, which could then be related back to equivalent volumes of untreated sewage that were released. Evidence of sewage contamination decreased as ruminant-associated indicators increased approximately one day post-storm, demonstrating the delayed impact of upstream agricultural sources on the estuary. These results demonstrate that urban areas are a diffuse source of sewage contamination to urban waters and that storm-driven release of sewage, particularly when sewage overflows occur, creates a serious though transient human health risk.

Released November 30, 2018 14:59 EST

2019, Geoderma (338) 14-29

Alicia R. Korol, Gregory Noe, Changwoo Ahn

Identifying floodplains with high rates of denitrification will help prioritize restoration projects for the removal of nitrogen. Currently, relationships of denitrification with hydrogeomorphic, physiographic, and climate (i.e., largescale) characteristics of floodplains are relatively unknown, even though these characteristics have datasets (e.g., geographic mapping tools) that are publicly available (or soon-to-become) that could be used to understand denitrification variability. Thus, we investigated control of denitrification by these largescale characteristics in eighteen nontidal floodplains of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (i.e., at regional scale, >100 km, scale), using measurements or compiled data at the scales of the stream reach and respective catchment; floodplain soil and herbaceous vegetation (i.e., local) characteristics were additionally investigated. Soil denitrification potentials were measured in May, July, and August using complementary acetylene-based techniques under an anoxic environment. Linear largescale predictors of denitrification potential measurements included stream nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations (+), channel width-to-depth ratio (+), floodplain sedimentation (+), forested (−) and urban (+) catchment land cover, and seasonal air temperature (−). Three predictors, catchment forested land cover (strongly related to agricultural land cover), catchment urban land cover, and floodplain sedimentation were related to the most number of denitrification potential measurements. Soil structure, soil nutrient concentrations, and herbaceous vegetation characteristics that were seasonally measured (with a few exceptions) were linear predictors of denitrification potentials in May and August, with nitrogen and carbon characteristics the most consistent (positive) predictors across measurements. Nutrient amendment assays further supported the importance of nitrogen and carbon controls. Using the local characteristics as statistical mediators in path analysis, greater non-forested catchment land cover indirectly increased denitrification through greater floodplain soil nitrate, total phosphorus, and herbaceous aboveground biomass. Additionally, greater floodplain sedimentation indirectly increased denitrification through greater soil pH, total phosphorus, and potential carbon mineralization. Due to the consistency of relationships across denitrification potential measurements along with path modeling results, hotspots of floodplain denitrification should be found in urban and agricultural catchments where river-floodplain hydrologic connectivity promotes sedimentation. Largescale predictors explained 43–57% of the variation in denitrification potentials and should be useful for prediction in floodplains. Siting restoration projects in watersheds for maximum nitrate removal using publicly available largescale datasets is both feasible and effective.

Released November 30, 2018 14:54 EST

2018, Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth

Thomas E. Parsons, Eric L. Geist, Rodolfo Console, Roberto Carluccio

An estimate of the expected earthquake rate at all possible magnitudes is needed for seismic hazard forecasts. Regional earthquake magnitude frequency distributions obey a negative exponential law (Gutenberg‐Richter), but it's unclear if individual faults do. We add three new methods to calculate long‐term California earthquake rupture rates to the existing Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) efforts to assess method and parameter dependence on magnitude frequency results for individual faults. All solutions show strongly characteristic magnitude‐frequency distributions on the San Andreas and other faults, with higher rates of large earthquakes than would be expected from a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution. This is a necessary outcome that results from fitting high fault slip rates under the overall statewide earthquake rate budget. We find that input data choices can affect the nucleation magnitude‐frequency distribution shape for the San Andreas fault; solutions are closer to a Gutenberg‐Richter distribution if the maximum magnitude allowed for earthquakes that occur away from mapped faults (background events) is raised above the consensus threshold of M=7.6, if the moment rate for background events is reduced, or if the overall maximum magnitude is reduced from M=8.5. We also find that participation magnitude‐frequency distribution shapes can be strongly affected by slip‐rate discontinuities along faults that may be artifacts related to segment boundaries.

Released November 29, 2018 14:00 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5144

Michelle Sneed, Justin T. Brandt, Michael Solt

Extensive groundwater withdrawal from the unconsolidated deposits in the San Joaquin Valley caused widespread aquifer-system compaction and resultant land subsidence from 1926 to 1970—locally exceeding 8.5 meters. The importation of surface water beginning in the early 1950s through the Delta-Mendota Canal and in the early 1970s through the California Aqueduct resulted in decreased groundwater pumping, recovery of water levels, and a reduced rate of compaction in some areas of the San Joaquin Valley. However, drought conditions during 1976–77, 1987–92, and drought conditions and operational reductions in surface-water deliveries during 2007–10 decreased surface-water availability, causing pumping to increase, water levels to decline, and renewed compaction. Land subsidence from this compaction has reduced freeboard and flow capacity of the California Aqueduct, Delta-Mendota Canal, and other canals that deliver irrigation water and transport floodwater.

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources, assessed more recent land subsidence near a 145-kilometer reach of the California Aqueduct in the west-central part of the San Joaquin Valley as part of an effort to minimize future subsidence-related damages to the California Aqueduct. The location, magnitude, and stress regime of land-surface deformation during 2003–10 were determined by using data and analyses associated with extensometers, Global Positioning System surveys, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, spirit-leveling surveys, and groundwater wells. Comparison of continuous Global Positioning System, shallow-extensometer, and groundwater-level data indicated that most of the compaction in this area took place beneath the Corcoran Clay, the primary regional confining unit. The integration of measurements strengthens confidence in individual measurement methods and provides the information at spatial and temporal scales that water managers need to design and implement groundwater sustainability plans in compliance with California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.

Measurements of land-surface deformation during 2003–10 indicated that the parts of the California Aqueduct closest to the Coast Ranges in the west-central part of the San Joaquin Valley were fairly stable or minimally subsiding on an annual basis; some areas show seasonal periods of subsidence and uplift that resulted in little or no longer-term elevation loss. Many groundwater levels in these areas did not reach historical lows during 2003–10, indicating that deformation nearest the Coast Ranges was likely primarily elastic.

Land-surface deformation measurements indicated that some parts of the California Aqueduct that traverse farther from the Coast Ranges toward the valley center subsided. Some parts of the California Aqueduct subsided locally, but generally the California Aqueduct is within part of a 12,000-square-kilometer area affected by 25 millimeters or more of subsidence during 2008–10, with maxima in Madera County, south of the town of El Nido near the San Joaquin River and the Eastside Bypass (540 millimeters), and in Tulare County, west of the town of Pixley (345 millimeters). Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar-derived subsidence maps for various periods during 2003–10 show that the area of maximum active subsidence (that is, the largest rates of subsidence) shifted from its historical (1926–70) location southwest of the town of Mendota to these areas nearer the valley center. Calculations indicated that the subsidence rate doubled in 2008 in parts of the study area. Water levels declined during 2007–10 in many shallow and deep wells in the most rapidly subsiding areas, where water levels in many deep wells reached their historical lows, indicating that subsidence measured during this period was largely inelastic.

Continued groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring in the San Joaquin Valley is important because (1) operational- and drought-related reductions in surface-water deliveries since 1976 have resulted in increased groundwater pumping and associated water-level declines and land subsidence, (2) land use and associated pumping continue to change throughout the valley, and (3) subsidence management is stipulated in the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. The availability of surface water remains uncertain; even during record-setting precipitation years, such as 2010–11, water deliveries fell short of requests and groundwater pumping was required to meet the irrigation demand. In some areas, the infrastructure is not available to supply surface water, and groundwater is the only source of water. Because of the expected continued demand for water and the limitations and uncertainty of surface-water supplies, groundwater pumping and associated land subsidence remains a concern. Spatially detailed information on land subsidence is needed to minimize future subsidence-related damages to the California Aqueduct and other infrastructure in the San Joaquin Valley, as well as alterations to natural resources such as stream gradients, water depths, and water temperatures. The integration of data on land-surface elevation, subsurface deformation, and water levels—particularly continuous measurements—enables the analysis of aquifer-system response to groundwater pumping, which in turn, enables estimation of the preconsolidation head and calculation of aquifer-system storage properties. This information can be used to improve numerical model simulations of groundwater flow and aquifer-system compaction and allow for consideration of land subsidence in the evaluation of water resource management alternatives and compliance with the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.

Released November 29, 2018 13:02 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5154

Robert L. Carruth, Libby M. Kahler, Brian D. Conway

The U.S. Geological Survey monitors groundwater-storage change and land-surface elevation change caused by groundwater withdrawal in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley—the two most populated alluvial basins within the Tucson Active Management Area. The Tucson Active Management Area is one of five active management areas in Arizona established by the 1980 Groundwater Management Act and governed by the Arizona Department of Water Resources. Gravity and land-surface elevation change were monitored every 1 to 3 years at wells and benchmarks in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley from 2003 to 2016. Monitoring resulted in estimates of land-surface elevation change and groundwater-storage change. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) interferograms showing land-surface elevation change were constructed for the Tucson metropolitan area from (1) May 2003 to July 2006, (2) July 2006 to June 2008, (3) June 2008 to April 2011, (4) April 2011 to November 2014, and (5) November 2014 to March 2016. For the Tucson metropolitan area, maximum subsidence of about 2 inches occurred during May 2003 to July 2006. From July 2006 to June 2008, maximum subsidence of approximately 0.8 inches occurred in two regions in the Tucson metropolitan area. From June 2008 to April 2011, about 0.8 inches of subsidence also occurred in two regions. Additionally, for the period April 2011 to November 2014, a maximum of about 0.9 inches of subsidence occurred in the same two regions of Tucson Basin. For the entire monitoring period from May 2003 to March 2016, maximum subsidence of as much as 5.3 inches occurred in the Tucson metropolitan area south of Irvington Road between south 12th Avenue and south Park Avenue, and as much as 4 inches in central Tucson south of Broadway between Country Club Road and Craycroft Road. The InSAR data indicated that there was no significant land-surface deformation from 2003 to 2016 in Avra Valley, and no change in either basin from 2014 to 2016.

The volume of stored groundwater in the monitored part of Tucson Basin showed net zero change from spring 2003 to summer 2006. From summer 2006 to summer 2008 the volume of stored groundwater in the monitored part of Tucson Basin increased approximately 50,000 acre-feet; however, overdraft conditions resumed from summer 2008 to spring 2011, resulting in decreased storage of approximately 178,000 acre-feet. From spring 2011 to fall 2014, the volume of stored groundwater in Tucson Basin decreased about 200,000 acre-feet, following a period of lower than average rainfall in 2012 and 2013. The volume of stored groundwater in the monitored part of Tucson Basin increased approximately 167,000 acre-feet from fall 2014 to spring 2016.

Groundwater storage in Avra Valley increased during the entire monitoring period from spring 2003 to spring 2016, largely as a result of managed recharge of Central Arizona Project water in the monitored region. From 2003 to 2016, artificial recharge in Avra Valley totaled approximately 1,788,000 acre-feet, and in Tucson Basin artificial recharge for the entire period was about 636,790 acre-feet. Artificial recharge exceeded pumping in Avra Valley for each time interval. Pumping in Tucson Basin exceeded artificial recharge for every period except 2014 to 2016. Overall, long-term water-level declines have stabilized or reversed since 2000 at most areas in Tucson Basin and Avra Valley.

Released November 29, 2018 10:30 EST

2018, Fact Sheet 2018-3044

Kimberly Shaffer, Kathleen M. Rowland, B. Pierre Sargent

Explore U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) water-use websites to learn how and where the Nation's water use has changed over time!  Learn how to find and access USGS water-use data shown in maps, graphs, visualizations, and information products. Gain a better understanding of water-use terms and USGS educational resources. Learn how to find and use USGS visualizations to see how water use has changed in each State, and explore county water withdrawals during 2015 to see which areas withdrew the most or least water.   

Released November 29, 2018 09:34 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5136

John Ellis

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation and the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, (1) quantified the groundwater resources of the Rush Springs aquifer in western Oklahoma by developing a numerical groundwater-flow model, (2) evaluated the effects of estimated equal-proportionate-share (EPS) pumping rates on aquifer storage and streamflow for time periods of 20, 40, and 50 years into the future, (3) assessed the uncertainty in the EPS scenario results, and (4) evaluated the effects of (a) projected groundwater-use rates extended 50 years into the future and (b) sustained hypothetical drought conditions over a 10-year period on stream base flow and groundwater in storage.

The Rush Springs aquifer is an important source of water for municipal and irrigation use by many communities and agricultural users in the study area. The study area is composed of about 4,970 square miles (3,181,003 acres) of Rush Springs aquifer bedrock deposits located in 14 counties. The study area also includes the alluvium and terrace deposits of the Canadian and Washita Rivers, as well as alluvium along the Little Washita River, Deer Creek, and a number of smaller tributaries of the Washita River that overlie the bedrock.

A numerical groundwater-flow model of the Rush Springs aquifer was constructed by using MODFLOW with the Newton solver. Groundwater flow was simulated for January 1979–December 2015 by using monthly stress periods, and an initial steady-state stress period was configured to represent mean annual inflows and outflows. The model was calibrated to groundwater-level observations at selected wells, monthly base flow at nine streamgages, stream seepage as estimated for the conceptual water budget, and Fort Cobb Reservoir stage.

The EPS scenarios for the Rush Springs aquifer were run for periods of 20, 40, and 50 years. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year EPS pumping rates under normal recharge conditions were 0.82, 0.49, and 0.43 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Given the 2,954,545-acre aquifer area used for the EPS scenarios, the 20-year rate corresponds to an annual yield of about 2,422,727 acre-feet per year. Groundwater storage at the end of the 20-year EPS scenario was about 13,321,000 acre-feet, or about 31,516,437 acre-feet (70 percent) less than the starting EPS scenario storage. This decrease in storage was equivalent to a mean groundwater-level decline of about 152 feet. Water availability under the EPS pumping rate was primarily from the western area of the model. Saturation was sustained though the entire EPS scenario where the aquifer was sufficiently thick or a shallow hydraulic gradient was present. Fort Cobb Reservoir stage was below the dead-pool stage after about 5 years of 20-year EPS pumping.

An uncertainty analysis was conducted to assess the uncertainty in the EPS scenario results. An ensemble of 400 random sets of possible parameter values was performed for the uncertainty analysis by using a multivariate normal distribution centered on the calibrated parameter values. The parameter bounds for the uncertainty analysis were determined by using the posterior covariance matrix, which allows for the incorporation of knowledge gained during the calibration process as well as observation uncertainty and the correlation between estimated parameters. The uncertainty results indicate a 95-percent confidence interval for the 20-year EPS pumping rate between 0.73 and 0.95 acre-foot per acre per year.

Projected 50-year pumping scenarios were used to simulate the effects of selected well withdrawal rates on groundwater storage of the Rush Springs aquifer. The effects of well withdrawals were evaluated by comparing changes in groundwater storage between four 50-year scenarios using (1) no groundwater use, (2) mean groundwater use for the study period (1979–2015), (3) increasing groundwater use, and (4) groundwater use at the 2015 rate. The increasing-use scenario assumed a 38-percent increase in pumping over 50 years on the basis of 2010–60 demand projections for western Oklahoma. Simulated groundwater storage changes ranged between an increase of 6.3 percent for the scenario with no groundwater use, and 0.9 percent for the scenario with 2015 groundwater-use rates. For the Fort Cobb Reservoir surface watershed, simulated groundwater storage changes ranged between an increase of 23.6 percent for the scenario with no groundwater use and a decrease of 4.0 percent for the increasing groundwater-use scenario. Groundwater-level changes were generally greater in areas with a large concentration of groundwater wells and groundwater use such as the Fort Cobb Reservoir surface watershed.

A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on the Rush Springs aquifer groundwater storage and Fort Cobb Reservoir stage and storage. Drought effects were quantified by comparing the results of the drought scenario to those of the calibrated numerical model. To simulate the hypothetical drought, recharge in the calibrated numerical model was reduced by 50 percent during the simulated drought period (1983–1992), and upstream inflows to the Canadian and Washita Rivers and associated tributaries were reduced by 37 percent. Groundwater storage at the end of the hypothetical drought period in December 1992 was about 42,983,000 acre-feet, or about 3,525,000 acre-feet (7.6 percent) less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model. This change in groundwater storage is equivalent to a mean groundwater-level decline of 15.8 feet. Simulated mean base-flow declines at the Canadian and Washita River streamgages were between 39 and 59 percent during the drought period. The minimum stage in Fort Cobb Reservoir at the end of the hypothetical drought period was 1,311 feet, indicating a storage capacity of only 10 percent of active conservation pool storage. The Fort Cobb Reservoir storage declines mostly resulted from reduced base flows in Cobb, Lake, and Willow Creeks upstream from the reservoir.

Released November 29, 2018 08:43 EST

2018, Professional Paper 1824-Y

Kenneth J. Bird, David W. Houseknecht, Janet K. Pitman

Thomas E. Moore, Donald L. Gautier, editor(s)

The East Siberian Sea Basin, which lies beneath the continental shelf east of the New Siberian Islands, is one of the better-known basins in a series of postorogenic (successor) basins in the East Siberian-Chukchi Sea region because of a reconnaissance network of seismic-reflection profiles and outcrops on nearby islands. In spite of the seismic coverage, the basin’s petroleum potential is poorly known. It is considered a separate petroleum province for the purposes of the Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal. The probability that the East Siberian Sea Basin contains at least one undiscovered accumulation >50 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE) is considered to be ~22 percent. A single assessment unit was defined and studied, resulting in mean estimates of technically recoverable conventional undiscovered resources of ~20 million barrels of oil (MMBO) and 580 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG), nonassociated.

Released November 28, 2018 17:00 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1167

Natasha B. Carr, Lucy E. Burris, Daniel J. Manier

Information on the biophysical features of Federal lands identified as suitable for transfer to the State of Colorado was requested by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). This information is intended for use in conducting an Environmental Assessment prior to the transfer of ownership (conveyance) to the State. The Colorado State Land Board filed a selective application to obtain public land and mineral estate in lieu of lands to which the State of Colorado was entitled but did not receive at the time of statehood. To address this legal obligation, 339 parcels of Federal lands (organized into 89 indemnity units [IUs]), currently under management by the BLM, have been identified as suitable for transfer to the State. The IUs include 23,130 acres of surface and mineral estate and 6,150 acres of mineral estate only. The specific land parcels to be transferred to the State will be finalized after an Environmental Assessment and other evaluations are completed.

To provide the biophysical information necessary for conducting a future Environmental Assessment of the potential effects of the proposed land transfer, information on ecological communities, soil characteristics, and land use was summarized at three levels: (1) all of Colorado, (2) lands under the jurisdiction of the BLM, and (3) the 89 IUs. Information was also synthesized and summarized for 179 plant and animal species or subspecies of management concern to evaluate which species had the potential for occurrence on IUs. Datasets summarized for Colorado and for indemnity units and methodological details for all data summaries are provided in U.S. Geological Survey data releases available online at https://doi.org/10.5066/F7GT5MGV  and https://doi.org/10.5066/F7C24VQ0.

Released November 28, 2018 13:20 EST

2018, Fact Sheet 2018-3029

Jeffrey J. Love, Carol A. Finn

Tucked in a grove of thorny mesquite trees, on an ancient coral reef on the south side of the Hawaiian island of Oahu, west of Pearl Harbor, a small unmanned observatory quietly records the Earth’s time-varying magnetic field. The Honolulu Magnetic Observatory is 1 of 14 that the U.S. Geological Survey Geomag­netism Program operates at various locations across the United States and its territories.

Data from these observatories, Honolulu, and those operated by institutions in foreign countries, record a variety of magnetic signals related to a wide diversity of physical phenomena in the Earth’s interior and its surrounding outer-space environment. USGS magnetic observatory operations are an integral part of a U.S. National Space Weather Strategy for monitoring and assessing natural hazards that potentially threaten important technological systems.

Released November 28, 2018 12:59 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1182

Collin D. Smith, John M. Plumb, Noah S. Adams

An imaging sonar was used to assess the behavior and abundance of fish sized the same as salmonid smolt and bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) at the entrance to the juvenile fish floating surface collector (FSC) at North Fork Reservoir, Oregon. The purpose of the FSC is to collect downriver migrating juvenile salmonids (Chinook salmon [Oncorhynchus tshawytscha], Coho salmon [Oncorhynchus kisutch], and steelhead [Oncorhynchus mykiss]) at the North Fork Dam and to safely route them around the hydroelectric projects. The objective of the imaging sonar component of this study was to assess the behaviors of both smolt and predator-size fish (smolt [60–250 millimeter] and predator 350–650 [millimeter]) observed near the FSC and to determine if the presence of predator-size fish influenced the abundance of smolt-size fish. An imaging sonar was deployed near the entrance to the FSC during the spring smolt out-migration period. The imaging sonar technology was an informative tool for assessing abundance and spatial and temporal behaviors of both smolt and predator-size fish near the entrance of the FSC. Both smolt and predator-size fish were regularly observed near the entrance, with greater abundances observed during day than during night. Behavioral differences were also observed between the two fish-size classes, with smolt-size fish traveling straighter with more directed movement, and predator-size fish generally showing more milling behavior. Additionally, the presence of predator-size fish may be effecting the abundance and direction of travel of smolt-size fish, as counts of smolt-size fish were reduced in conjunction with the presence of predator-size fish and a greater proportion of smolt-size fish were observed traveling away from the FSC when predator-size fish were present than when predator-size fish were absent. Results of modeling potential predator-prey interactions and influences indicated that both the number of juvenile fish tracks and photoperiod had the strongest effects on the number of predator fish tracks, with more predator-size fish tracks observed as the number of smolt-size fish tracks increased. Overall, the results indicate that predator-size fish are present near the entrance of the FSC, concomitant with smolt-size fish, and their abundances and behaviors indicate that they may be drawn to the entrance of the FSC because of the abundance of prey-sized fish found there.

Released November 27, 2018 14:30 EST

2018, Techniques and Methods 9-A1

U.S. Geological Survey

The “National Field Manual for the Collection of Water-Quality Data” (NFM) provides guidelines and procedures for U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel who collect data used to assess the quality of the Nation’s surface-water and groundwater resources. This chapter, NFM A1, provides an overview of preparations for water sampling, which includes site reconnaissance, project work plans, quality-assurance plans, basic equipment and supplies needed for fieldwork, safety precautions, and planning for data management. It updates and supersedes USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 9, chapter A1, version 2.0, by F.D. Wilde.

Before 2017, the NFM chapters were released in the USGS Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations series. Effective in 2018, new and revised NFM chapters are being released in the USGS Techniques and Methods series; this series change does not affect the content and format of the NFM. More information is in the general introduction to the NFM (USGS Techniques and Methods, book 9, chapter A0) at https://doi.org/10.3133/tm9A0. The authoritative current versions of NFM chapters are available in the USGS Publications Warehouse at https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/. Comments, questions, and suggestions related to the NFM can be addressed to nfm-owq@usgs.gov.

Released November 27, 2018 12:00 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5113

S. Alex. Covert, Martha L. Jagucki, Carrie Huitger

In 2015–16, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Muskingum Watershed Conservancy District, led a study to assess baseline (2015–16) surface-water quality in six lake drainage basins within the Muskingum River watershed that are in the early years of shale-gas development. In 2015, 9 of the 10 most active counties in Ohio for oil and gas development were wholly or partially within the Muskingum River watershed. In addition to shale gas development, the area has a history of conventional oil and gas development and coal mining.

In all, 30 surface-water sites were sampled: 20 in tributaries flowing to the lakes, 4 in lakes themselves, and 6 downstream of the lakes. At each of the 30 sites, 6 samples were collected to characterize surface-water chemistry throughout a range of hydrologic conditions. The sampling generally occurred during low flows (periods of greater groundwater contribution) rather than during runoff events (periods of high stream stage).

Trilinear diagrams of major ion chemistry revealed three main types of water in the study area―sulfate-dominated waters, bicarbonate-dominated waters, and waters with mixed bicarbonate and chloride anions. Most sites produced samples of bicarbonate-dominated water, and 11 sites produced samples with sulfate-type waters. Mixed bicarbonate and chloride waters were found in samples from two of the six lake drainage basins studied.

The baseline (2015–16) assessment of surface-water quality in the study area indicated that few water-chemistry constituents and properties occurred at concentrations or levels that would adversely affect aquatic organisms. Chemical-specific, aquatic life use criteria were not met in only three instances: two were for total dissolved solids at sites likely impacted by coal mining in their drainage basins (hereafter referred to as “mine-impacted sites”), and one was for dissolved oxygen.

Mine drainage from historical coal mining in the region likely affected the quality of about one-third of the streams sampled. To simplify interpretation of water-chemistry results, 11 sites with sulfate-type water were identified as mine-impacted sites based on water-quality criteria established by Ohio Department of Natural Resources, Division of Mineral Resources Management, and separated out for subsequent statistical analysis. Concentrations or levels of bicarbonate, boron, calcium, carbonate, total dissolved solids, fluoride, magnesium, lithium, pH, potassium, sodium, specific conductance, strontium, sulfate, and suspended sediment in water were higher (significance level of 0.05) at mine-impacted stream sites than at non-mine-impacted stream sites.

An accidental release of oil- and gas-related brines could increase salinity (sodium and chloride), the concentration of total dissolved solids in shallow groundwater and streams, and specific conductance. For this study, chloride concentrations in the study area ranged from 2.12 to 76.1 milligrams per liter. Sources of chloride in water samples were evaluated using binary mixing curves and ratios of chloride to bromide. These ratios indicated that 13 samples from 3 sites in the drainage basin that contained the highest density of conventional oil and gas wells in the study, as well as 4 samples collected from other drainage basins, likely contained a component of brine. Concentrations or levels of barium, bromide, chloride, iron, lithium, manganese, and sodium were significantly higher (alpha = 0.05) in samples with a component of brine than in samples without a component of brine.

Benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX), compounds that occur naturally in crude oil, made up 24 of the 45 detections (53 percent) of volatile organic compounds in the study area. The BTEX detections were not associated with sites containing a component of brine. The only volatile organic compound detected in any of the 17 samples that contained a component of brine was acetone, detected in 3 (18 percent) of these samples and in 11 percent of samples not containing a component of brine. Considering that BTEX are gasoline hydrocarbons and that most of the detections occurred during warmer months in and around the lakes, the BTEX detections likely are associated with increases in outdoor activities such as automobile and boating traffic.

Radium-226 and radium-228 were included in the list of analytes for this study because production water from shale-gas drilling can contain these naturally occurring radioactive materials. Concentrations of radium-226 exceeded background levels in only two surface-water samples. Concentrations of radium-228 exceeded background levels in one surface-water sample.

A brine signature potentially indicative of oil and gas contamination was detected in samples collected at two sites that contained active or plugged waste injection wells, or both. Results from the study indicated significant differences in the median concentrations of bromide, chloride, lithium, manganese, sodium, and total dissolved nitrogen between sites with and without injection wells in their drainage areas. Median concentrations of bromide, chloride, lithium, and sodium, which are common oil- and gas-related contaminants, were higher at sites with injection wells in their drainage areas compared to sites without injection wells.

Historical (1960s, 1970s, and 1980s) chloride concentrations and streamflow data at or near five of the six sampling sites downstream from each lake dam were compared to current (2015–16) values. An analysis of covariance was done to test the effects of streamflow, time (decade), and the combined effects (cross product) of streamflow and time on chloride concentrations. Those analyses indicated that streamflow was not significant in explaining the variation in chloride concentration, likely because streamflow in those locations is controlled by dam operations; therefore, association between runoff-generating events and streamflow is less direct than in unregulated streams. From the 1980s to the study period (2015–16), data for three of the five lakes indicated an increase in chloride concentrations. The comparison of historical and current (2015–16) study data from samples collected at another lake indicated that chloride concentrations increased from the 1960s to the 1970s, but concentrations in the 1970s and 2015–16 were similar even though 13 samples from this lake drainage basin were classified as having a component of brine. Median chloride concentrations for the fifth lake, however, seemed to decrease from the 1980s to 2015–16.

Released November 27, 2018 10:11 EST

2018, Journal of Applied Ichthyology

Curtis G. Byrd, Duane C. Chapman, Emily K. Pherigo, Jeffrey C. Jolley

Bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix(together, the bigheaded carps) are invasive fishes in North America that have resulted in substantial negative effects on native fish communities and aquatic ecosystems. Movement and behavior of adult bigheaded carps has been studied previously using telemetry, while similar studies with juvenile bigheaded carps have yet to be attempted. Recent technological advances in telemetry transmitters has increased the availability of tags sufficiently small enough to implant in juvenile carps. However, the effects of surgical implantation of telemetry tags on juvenile bigheaded carps have not been evaluated. We determined tag retention and survival associated with surgical implantation of acoustic telemetry tags into juvenile bighead carp (range 128–152 mm total length) at three temperatures (13, 18, and 23°C). In addition, we assessed the effect of surgically implanted transmitters on the fitness, defined as changes in weight or critical swimming speed, of carp implanted with transmitters. Survival was high among tagged fish (85%) with 47% of tags retained at the conclusion of the 45‐day study. No substantial decline in fitness of the fish was observed in tagged fish compared to untagged fish.

Released November 27, 2018 10:08 EST

2018, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics

Dhanushi A. Wijeyakulasuriya, Ephraim M. Hanks, Benjamin A. Shaby, Paul C. Cross

Species range shifts and the spread of diseases are both likely to be driven by extreme movements, but are difficult to statistically model due to their rarity. We propose a statistical approach for characterizing movement kernels that incorporate landscape covariates as well as the potential for heavy-tailed distributions. We used a spliced distribution for distance travelled paired with a resource selection function to model movements biased toward preferred habitats. As an example, we used data from 704 annual elk movements around the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2001 to 2015. Yearly elk movements were both heavy-tailed and biased away from high elevations during the winter months. We then used a simulation to illustrate how these habitat effects may alter the rate of disease spread using our estimated movement kernel relative to a more traditional approach that does not include landscape covariates. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Released November 26, 2018 15:04 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5134

Annett B. Sullivan, Stewart A. Rounds

Executive Summary

Located southwest of Klamath Falls, Oregon, Klamath Straits Drain is a 10.1-mile-long canal that conveys water uphill and northward through the use of pumps before discharging to the Klamath River. Klamath Straits Drain traverses an area that historically encompassed Lower Klamath Lake. Currently, the Drain receives water from farmland and from parts of the Lower Klamath Lake National Wildlife Refuge. To support water-quality improvement in Klamath Straits Drain, a hydrodynamic and water-temperature model was constructed and calibrated for calendar years 2012–15 with the two-dimensional model CE-QUAL-W2 (version 4.0). Water quality was calibrated for a subset of that time, from April 1, 2012 to March 31, 2015. Flows in calendar year 2012 were within the normal range, while calendar years 2013–15 were dry years. Significant findings from this study include:

• In the years studied, only limited flow entered Klamath Straits Drain at the upstream Headworks (KSDH) site. Most flow entered the Drain between KSDH and the E-EE pumps near Township Road through several irrigation channels and ditches. Few data were available to describe the quality of this water for the period of study.
• The E-EE and F-FF pumps along Klamath Straits Drain mainly operated automatically to keep water levels relatively steady. Ten-minute flow data at streamgage 11509340, downstream of the F-FF pumps, showed high-frequency on/off switching of the F-FF pumps. Combined with daily mean flow data from the F-FF pumps, the downstream 10-minute flow data allowed estimation of 10-minute pumping rates for the F-FF pumps. Paper pump charts showed the existence of short-term variability at the E-EE pumps; however, daily pump data were used at the E-EE pump location in the model.
• Water temperature in Klamath Straits Drain varied from less than 5 degrees Celsius (°C) (with occasional ice cover in December–January) to greater than 20 °C in May–September. In the years studied, specific conductance was typically 250–850 microsiemens per centimeter, higher than Klamath River specific conductance (typically 100–200 microsiemens per centimeter).
• Increased chlorophyll a in autumn and winter, along with supersaturated oxygen concentrations, indicated algal blooms in the Drain at that time of year. The blooms were most likely diatoms, based on the timing of blooms sampled elsewhere.
• Total nitrogen concentration was as much as 5.5 mg/L, with most in dissolved organic and particulate forms, and lower amounts in ammonia and nitrate+nitrite. Total phosphorus concentrations were distributed between orthophophorus (at a median concentration of 0.15 mg/L) and organic and particulate forms (at a median concentration of 0.13 mg/L). Most of the organic carbon in the Klamath Straits Drain was in dissolved rather than particulate form.
• Newly collected water-quality data for April 1, 2012–March 31, 2015 helped provide the impetus for this modeling study. However, a lack of some data still hindered the construction and calibration of this model. The model would benefit from additional data to describe water-quality boundary conditions, water-quality calibration data upstream of the F-FF pumps, short-term E-EE pump operations, and channel bathymetry in the reach between Highway 97 and the confluence with the Klamath River.
• Klamath River water mixed upstream into the Klamath Straits Drain, up to the Klamath Straits Drain F-FF pumps at Highway 97, when the F-FF pumps were not operating for periods of hours to days. The F-FF pumps were off for many days during this study, especially during dry years.
• The boundary between Klamath Straits Drain and the Klamath River was best modeled with an external head condition, which allows exchange of water between the river and the drain in both directions, upstream and downstream.
• Currently there is a flow gage, water-quality monitor, and a water-quality sampling site located downstream of the F-FF pumps, in the reach where Klamath Straits Drain water can mix with Klamath River water. To sample solely Klamath Straits Drain water, water samples would need to be collected only when the F-FF pumps are actively pumping. Alternately, the sampling location could be moved upstream of the pumps. Interpretation and use of historical water-quality data at the Klamath Straits Drain at Highway 97 site should be done in conjunction with information on pump activity to help inform whether mixing with Klamath River water may have occurred.
• Total 2014 (a dry year) phosphorus loads from the Drain to the Klamath River were lower and closer to total maximum daily load (TMDL) allocations, as compared to 2013, a year with greater flow and pumping.
• Modeled travel time through the Klamath Straits Drain, from Headworks to its confluence with the Klamath River, ranged from approximately 24 hours at high flow to 16 days or more, depending on how many days the pumps were turned off. The longer travel times are sufficient for important water-quality transformations, such as algal growth and organic-matter decomposition.

This newly constructed model of the Klamath Straits Drain simulates flow, water levels, water temperature, and water quality with acceptable accuracy but with certain data limitations. This model should prove useful in evaluating potential strategies for flow and water-quality management and restoration.

Released November 26, 2018 12:09 EST

2018, Applied Vegetation Science

Stella M. Copeland, Seth M. Munson, John B. Bradford, Bradley J. Butterfield

Released November 26, 2018 12:06 EST

2018, Journal of Applied Ecology

Madeleine A. Rubenstein, Roger Christophersen, Jason I. Ransom

1. Climate change influences apex predators in complex ways, due to their important trophic position, capacity for resource plasticity, and sensitivity to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Bald eagles, an ecologically and culturally significant apex predator, congregate seasonally in high densities on salmon spawning rivers across the Pacific Northwest. One of the largest eagle concentrations is in the Skagit River watershed, which connects the montane wilderness of North Cascades National Park to the Puget Sound.
2. Using multiple long‐term datasets, we evaluated local bald eagle abundance in relation to chum and coho salmon availability; salmon phenology; and the number and timing of flood events in the Skagit. We analysed changes over time as a reflection of climate change impacts, as well as differences between managed and unmanaged portions of the river.
3. We found that peaks in chum salmon and bald eagle presence have advanced at remarkably similar rates (c. 0.45 days/year), suggesting synchronous phenological responses within this trophic relationship.
4. Yet the temporal relationship between chum salmon spawning and flood events, which remove salmon carcasses from the system, has not remained constant. This has resulted in a paradigm shift whereby the peak of chum spawning now occurs before the first flood event of the season rather than after.
5. The interval between peak chum and first flood event was a significant predictor of bald eagle presence: as this interval grew over time (by nearly one day per year), bald eagle counts declined, with a steady decrease in bald eagle observations since 2002. River section was also an important factor, with fewer flood events, and more eagle observations occurring in the river section experiencing direct hydroelectric flow management.
6. Synthesis and applications. The effects of climate change and hydroelectric management contribute to a complex human footprint in the North Cascades National Park, an otherwise largely natural ecosystem. By accounting for the differential phenological impacts of climate change on bald eagles, salmon, and flood events, Park managers and the operators of the hydroelectric system can more effectively ensure the resilience of the eagle–salmon relationship along the Skagit River.

Released November 26, 2018 11:52 EST

2018, Earth and Space Science

Jonathon J. Donager, Temuulen T. Sankey, Joel B. Sankey, Andrew J. Sanchez Meadorc, Abraham E. Springer, John D. Bailey

Terrestrial laser scanners (TLSs) provide a tool to assess and monitor forest structure across forest landscapes. We present TLS methods, suggestions, and mapped guidelines for planning TLS acquisitions at varying scales and forest densities. We examined rates of point‐density decline with distance from two TLS that acquire data at relatively high and low point density and found that the rates were nearly identical between scanners (pvalue <0.01), suggesting that our findings are applicable to a range of TLS types. Using unique, TLS‐adapted processing methods, we determined the relative accuracy of TLS‐derived plot‐scale estimates of tree height, diameter‐at‐breast‐height, height‐to‐canopy, tree counts, as well as treatment‐scale tree density and patch metrics, using both high point density and low point density TLS among thinned and nonthinned forest treatments. The high‐density TLS consistently provides more accurate estimates of plot‐level metrics (R² = 0.46 to 0.87) than the low‐density TLS (R² = −0.14 to 0.53). At treatment scales, tree density estimates are similar among scanners (R² = 0.95 vs. 0.71), as are canopy cover and patch metrics. We develop and present the normalized density‐distance index (NDDI), which can account for up to 59% of the variance in estimate error and can be used to guide TLS‐data acquisition plans. This index indicates whether a given location has generally higher point density (higher NDDI) relative to the distance from the scanner and can be used as a proxy for uncertainty. Using NDDI as a guide for fair comparison between scanners, both plot‐ and treatment‐scale estimates improved.

Released November 26, 2018 11:30 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5122

Justin A. Boldt, Jeremiah G. Lant, Nicholas E. Kolarik

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 7.1-mile reach of the North Fork Kentucky River at Hazard, Kentucky (Ky.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Kentucky Silver Jackets and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Louisville District. The flood-inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science website at https://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage on the North Fork Kentucky River at Hazard, Ky. (USGS station number 03277500). Near-real-time stages at this streamgage may be obtained on the internet from the USGS National Water Information System at https://waterdata.usgs.gov/ or the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) at https://water.weather.gov/ahps/, which also forecasts flood hydrographs at this site (NWS AHPS site HAZK2). NWS AHPS forecast peak stage information may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation.

Flood profiles were computed for the North Fork Kentucky River reach by means of a one-dimensional, step-backwater model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current stage-discharge relation (USGS rating no. 24.0) at USGS streamgage 03277500, North Fork Kentucky River at Hazard, Ky. The calibrated hydraulic model was then used to compute 26 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot (ft) intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from approximately bankfull (14 ft) to the highest even-foot increment stage (39 ft) of the current stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model, derived from light detection and ranging data, to delineate the area flooded at each water level.

The availability of these maps, along with information on the internet regarding current stage from the USGS streamgage at North Fork Kentucky River at Hazard, Ky., and forecasted stream stages from the NWS AHPS, provides emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for postflood recovery efforts.

Released November 26, 2018 07:27 EST

2018, Fact Sheet 2018-3067

James A. Kingsbury

Groundwater provides nearly 50 percent of the Nation’s drinking water. To help protect this vital resource, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Project assesses groundwater quality in aquifers that are important sources of drinking water (Burow and Belitz, 2014). The Mississippi embayment–Texas coastal uplands aquifer system constitutes one of the important aquifer systems being evaluated.

Released November 26, 2018 07:25 EST

2018, Fact Sheet 2018-3066

James A. Kingsbury

Groundwater provides nearly 50 percent of the Nation’s drinking water. To help protect this vital resource, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Project assesses groundwater quality in aquifers that are important sources of drinking water (Burow and Belitz, 2014). The Floridan aquifer system constitutes one of the important aquifer systems being evaluated.

Released November 23, 2018 13:00 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5131

Matthew D. Merrill, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Philip A. Freeman, Jinxun Liu, Peter D. Warwick, Bradley C. Reed

In January 2016, the Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior tasked the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with producing a publicly available and annually updated database of estimated greenhouse gas emissions associated with the extraction and use (predominantly some form of combustion) of fossil fuels from Federal lands. In response, the USGS has produced estimates of the greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the extraction and end-use combustion of fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in the United States, as well as estimates of ecosystem carbon emissions and sequestration on those lands. American Indian and Tribal lands were not included in this analysis. The emissions estimates span a 10-year period (2005–14) and are reported for 28 States and two offshore areas. Nationwide emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands in 2014 were 1,279.0 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO₂ Eq.) for carbon dioxide (CO₂), 47.6 MMT CO₂ Eq. for methane (CH₄), and 5.5 MMT CO₂ Eq. for nitrous oxide (N₂O). Compared to 2005, the 2014 totals represent decreases in emissions for all three greenhouse gases (decreases of 6.1 percent for CO₂, 10.5 percent for CH₄, and 20.3 percent for N₂O). Emissions from fossil fuels produced on Federal lands represent, on average, 23.7 percent of national emissions for CO₂, 7.3 percent for CH₄, and 1.5 percent for N₂O over the 10 years included in this estimate.

In 2005, Federal lands of the conterminous United States stored 82,289 MMT CO₂ Eq. in terrestrial ecosystems. By 2014, carbon storage, or sequestration, was estimated at 83,600 MMT CO₂ Eq., representing an increase of 1.6 percent, or 1,311 MMT CO₂ Eq. Soils stored most of the ecosystem carbon (63 percent), followed by live vegetation (26 percent) and dead organic matter (11 percent). The rate of net carbon uptake in ecosystems ranged from a sink (sequestration) of 475 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year (MMT CO₂ Eq./yr) to a source (emission) of 51 MMT CO₂ Eq./yr because of annual variability in climate and weather, rates of land-use and land-cover change, and wildfire frequency, among other factors. At the national level, the USGS estimates that terrestrial ecosystems (forests, grasslands, and shrublands) on Federal lands sequestered an average of 195 MMT CO₂ Eq./yr between 2005 and 2014, offsetting approximately 15 percent of the CO₂ emissions resulting from the extraction of fossil fuels on Federal lands and their end-use combustion.

The USGS estimates presented in this report represent a first-of-its-kind accounting for the emissions resulting from fossil fuel extraction on Federal lands and the end-use combustion of those fuels, as well as for the sequestration of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems on Federal lands. The net CO₂ emissions estimate, which is the difference between the emitted and sequestered CO₂, provides an informative combined result describing the emissions (fossil fuel extraction and end-use combustion) associated with a State’s Federal lands and sequestration on those same lands. The estimates included in this report can provide context for future energy decisions, as well as a basis to track change in the future.

Released November 22, 2018 08:07 EST

2018, PaleoAmerica (4) 12-15

Steven R. Holen, Thomas A. Demere, Daniel C. Fisher, Richard Fullagar, James B. Paces, George T. Jefferson, Jared M. Beeton, Adam N. Rountrey, Kathleen A. Holen

The Perspective editorial by Braje, T., T. D. Dillehay, J. M. Erlandson, S. M. Fitzpatrick, D. K. Grayson, V. T. Holliday, R. L. Kelly, R. G. Klein, D. J. Meltzer, and T. C. Rick (2017. “Were Hominins in California ∼130,000 Years Ago?” PaleoAmerica 3 (3): 200–202) takes issue with our argument [Holen, S. R., T. A. Deméré, D. C. Fisher, R. Fullagar, J. B. Paces, G. T. Jefferson, J. M. Beeton, et al. (2017. “A 130,000-Year-Old Archaeological Site in Southern California, USA.” Nature 544 (7651): 479–483) that the assemblage of bones and stones at the Cerutti Mastodon (CM) site implicates hominin activity in site formation 130,000 years ago. Braje et al. propose instead that features of the CM site can be better explained by geological or other causes unrelated to ancient human activity. However, we contend that their conclusion reflects an incomplete assessment of our evidence. They further propose a standard of evidence at odds with current practice in the philosophy of science, and misuse a commonly quoted aphorism that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

Released November 21, 2018 14:45 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5142

Judith C. Thomas, Peter B. McMahon

The Piceance and Yellow Creek watersheds in Rio Blanco County, Colorado, are known to contain important energy resources (oil shale and natural gas) and mineral resources (nahcolite). The primary sources of fresh groundwater in the Piceance and Yellow Creek watersheds are bedrock aquifers in the Uinta and Green River Formations. The aquifers are divided into an upper and lower aquifer separated by a regionally extensive semiconfining layer. These aquifers provide water to streams and springs in the watersheds and are an important resource to people living and working in the area. Development of energy and mineral resources has the potential to affect the quality of groundwater in several ways. The Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Geological Survey began groundwater monitoring in 2010 to characterize the groundwater quality and water-level elevations of shallow bedrock aquifers in the Piceance and Yellow Creek watersheds. The purpose of this report is to present ground-water chemistry and water-level elevations collected during 2013–16. Comparisons are made to data that were collected from the bedrock aquifers from 2010 to 2012 to identify the potential for changes in water quality and water-level elevations.

Appreciable changes in water-level elevations and hydraulic gradient were observed in early April 2015 in two wells completed in the upper and lower aquifers. The hydraulic gradient between the two wells was consistently downward from the upper aquifer to the lower aquifer during 2010–15; however, in early April 2015, the gradient changed from downward to upward between the two aquifers. Overall, water-level elevations declined by about 14 and 11 feet in the upper and lower aquifers, respectively, from 2013 to 2016. Previously published data estimated groundwater ages at 1,200 years old in the upper aquifer and 9,600 years old in the lower aquifer. These groundwater ages indicate that ground-water was recharged over thousands of years. With such long periods of time for aquifer recharge, declines in water-level elevation over short time steps (a few months) have important implications for sustainable management of this resource. Solution mining activities or drilling for oil and natural gas in the area could be related to the changes observed in water-level elevations in these wells; however, further investigation would be needed to evaluate causation.

Changes in major-ion chemistry were evaluated in the bedrock aquifer using time series plots of select major-ion data from 2010 to 2016. Major-ion chemistry was variable for a single well from 2010 to 2016 where alkalinity and sulfate were the most variable constituents. One possible explanation for the observed changes in major-ion chemistry may be that the sample depth for that well no longer represents the most appreciable flow in the borehole. On a larger scale, potential changes in flow within the borehole may indicate changes in the regional flow system. Methane and volatile organic compound concentrations were evaluated using a similar approach to that of major ions and had similar findings. Methane concentrations in wells sampled from 2010 to 2016 were generally constant. The only exception was observed at a single well where the range of methane concentrations was from 57.4 (2010) to 4.02 milligrams per liter (2013). This is the same well where changes in water-level elevation, hydraulic gradient, and major-ion chemistry were observed, providing multiple lines of evidence to indicate change in the bedrock aquifers. Sampling of a well located in an area with little energy development but where faults or fractures could provide a path for the migration of fluids indicate mixing of groundwater between the upper and lower aquifers.

Released November 21, 2018 10:30 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1109

Gordon C. Reese, Natasha B. Carr, Lucy E. Burris

The Southern Great Plains Rapid Ecoregional Assessment was conducted in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative. The overall goal of the Rapid Ecoregional Assessments (REAs) is to compile and synthesize regional datasets to facilitate evaluation of the cumulative effects of change agents on priority ecological communities and species. In particular, the REAs identify and map the distribution of communities and wildlife habitats at broad spatial extents and provide assessments of ecological conditions. The REAs also identify where and to what degree ecological resources are currently at risk from change agents, such as development, fire, invasive species, and climate change. The REAs can help managers identify and prioritize potential areas for conservation or restoration, assess cumulative effects as required by the National Environmental Policy Act, and inform landscape-level planning and management decisions for multiple uses of public lands.

Management questions form the basis for the REA framework and were developed in conjunction with the BLM and other stakeholders. Conservation elements are communities and species that are of regional management concern. Core management questions relate to the key ecological attributes and change agents associated with each conservation element. Integrated management questions synthesize the results of the primary core management questions into overall landscape-level ranks for each conservation element.

The ecological communities evaluated as conservation elements are shortgrass, mixed-grass, and sand prairies; all grasslands; riparian and nonplaya wetlands; playa wetlands and saline lakes; and prairie streams and rivers. Species and species assemblages evaluated are the freshwater mussel assemblage, Arkansas River shiner (Notropis girardi), ferruginous hawk (Buteo regalis), lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), snowy plover (Charadrius nivosus), mountain plover (Charadrius montanus), long-billed curlew (Numenius americanus), interior least tern (Sternula antillarum athalassos), burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia), black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus), bat assemblage, swift fox (Vulpes velox), and mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus).

The Southern Great Plains REA is summarized in a series of three reports and associated datasets. The pre-assessment report (available online at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151003) summarizes the process used by the REA stakeholders to select management questions, conservation elements, and change agents. It also provides background information for each conservation element. Volume I of the Southern Great Plains REA report addresses the ecological communities (available online at https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171100). Volume II (this volume) addresses the species and species assemblages. All source and derived datasets used to produce the maps and graphs for REAs are available online at the BLM Landscape Approach Data Portal (https://landscape.blm.gov/geoportal/catalog/REAs/REAs.page).

Released November 20, 2018 13:39 EST

2018, Professional Paper 1824-AA

Kenneth Bird, David W. Houseknecht, Janet K. Pitman

Thomas E. Moore, Donald L. Gautier, editor(s)

The Long Strait Basin is both a stand alone petroleum province and an assessment unit (AU) that lies offshore in the East Siberian Sea north of Chukotka and south of Wrangel Island. This basin is known only on the basis of gravity data and a single proprietary seismic line. In the absence of more specific data, its position and regional setting suggest that it may have petroleum geologic characteristics similar to the nearby Hope Basin.

Because the geology and petroleum potential of the Long Strait Basin are so poorly known, only a single AU was defined for this study area. An overall probability of ~0.08 (8 percent) of at least one petroleum accumulation larger than 50 million barrels of oil equivalent was determined on the basis of estimated probabilities of the occurrence of petroleum source, adequate reservoir, trap and seal, and favorable timing. Because this probability falls below the 10 percent probability cutoff used in the U.S. Geological Survey’s Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal, no quantitative assessment of sizes and numbers of petroleum accumulations was conducted for this AU.

Released November 20, 2018 12:38 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1184

Joseph F. Mangano, David R. Piatt, Krista L. Jones, Stewart A. Rounds

The U.S. Geological Survey collected continuous water-temperature data in select tributaries of the lowermost 80 kilometers (50 miles) of the Willamette River in northwestern Oregon, during summers 2016 and 2017. Point measurements of water temperature and water quality (dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and pH) also were collected at multiple locations and depths within the river and in the lower reaches of three major tributaries (Clackamas and Molalla Rivers, and Johnson Creek). These datasets were collected to identify potential locations of cold-water refuges for sensitive fish species, and to characterize daily, seasonal, and spatial variability in water conditions. These datasets may be useful for local municipalities that are required to identify cold-water refuges (as defined in State of Oregon water-quality standards) and determine approaches for protecting and enhancing these features as part of their Willamette River water-temperature Total Maximum Daily Load implementation plans. This report documents the data collection methods, provides summary graphs and maps of the water-temperature data, and outlines steps for accessing the data.

Released November 20, 2018 11:06 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1165

Owen P. McKenna, David M. Mushet, Eric J. Scherff, Kyle I. Mclean, Christopher T. Mills

The North American Prairie Pothole Region covers about 770,000 square kilometers of the United States and Canada (including parts of 5 States and 3 provinces: North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta). The Laurentide Ice Sheet shaped the landscape of the region about 12,000 to 14,000 years ago. The retreat of the ice sheet left behind low-permeability glacial till and a landscape dotted with millions of depressions known today as prairie potholes. The wetlands that subsequently formed in these depressions, prairie-pothole wetlands, provide critical migratory-bird habitat and support dynamic aquatic communities. Extensive grasslands and productive agricultural systems surround these wetland ecosystems. In prairie-pothole wetlands, the compositions of plant, invertebrate, and vertebrate communities are highly dependent on hydrogeochemical conditions. Regional climate shifts between wet and dry periods affect the length of time that wetlands contain ponded surface water and the chemistry of that ponded water. Land-use change can exacerbate or reduce the effects of climate on wetland hydrology and water chemistry.

A mechanistic understanding of the relation among climate, land use, hydrology, chemistry, and biota in prairie-pothole wetlands is needed to better understand the complex, and often interacting, effects of climate and land use on prairie-pothole wetland systems and to facilitate climate and land-use change adaptation efforts. The Pothole Hydrology-Linked Systems Simulator (PHyLiSS) model was developed to address this need. The model simulates water-surface elevation dynamics in prairie-pothole wetlands and quantifies changes in salinity. The PHyLiSS model is unique among other wetland models because it accommodates differing sizes and morphometries of wetland basins, is not dependent on a priori designations of wetland class, and allows for functional changes associated with dynamic shifts in ecohydrological states. The PHyLiSS model also has the capability to simulate wetland salinity, and potential future iterations will also simulate the effects of changing hydrology and geochemical conditions on biota. This report documents the development of the hydrological and geochemical components of the PHyLiSS model and provides example applications.

Released November 20, 2018 11:02 EST

2018, Ecology and Evolution

Lydia L. Stiffler, Katie M. Schroeder, James T. Anderson, Susan B. McRae, Todd E. Katzner

Reliable species identification is vital for survey and monitoring programs. Recently, the development of digital technology for recording and analyzing vocalizations has assisted in acoustic surveying for cryptic, rare, or elusive species. However, the quantitative tools that exist for species differentiation are still being refined. Using vocalizations recorded in the course of ecological studies of a King Rail (Rallus elegans) and a Clapper Rail (Rallus crepitans) population, we assessed the accuracy and effectiveness of three parametric (logistic regression, discriminant function analysis, quadratic discriminant function analysis) and six nonparametric (support vector machine, CART, Random Forest, k‐nearest neighbor, weighted k‐nearest neighbor, and neural networks) statistical classification methods for differentiating these species by their kek mating call. We identified 480 kek notes of each species and quantitatively characterized them with five standardized acoustic parameters. Overall, nonparametric classification methods outperformed parametric classification methods for species differentiation (nonparametric tools were between 57% and 81% accurate, parametric tools were between 57% and 60% accurate). Of the nine classification methods, Random Forest was the most accurate and precise, resulting in 81.1% correct classification of kek notes to species. This suggests that the mating calls of these sister species are likely difficult for human observers to tell apart. However, it also implies that appropriate statistical tools may allow reasonable species‐level classification accuracy of recorded calls and provide an alternative to species classification where other capture‐ or genotype‐based survey techniques are not possible.

Released November 20, 2018 11:01 EST

2018, Insect Conservation and Diversity

Ashley T. Rohde, David S. Pilliod, Stephen J. Novak

1. Natural resource managers sow grass, forb, and shrub seeds across millions of hectares of public lands in the western United States to restore sagebrush‐steppe ecosystems burned by wildfire. The effects of post‐fire vegetation treatments on insect communities in these ecosystems have not been investigated.
2. We conducted the first investigation of insect community responses to post‐fire seeding on public rangelands by comparing the composition of insect communities at burned‐and‐seeded (treatment) and burned‐and‐unseeded (control) sagebrush‐steppe ecological sites in southwestern Idaho. Insect communities in burned areas were compared to unburned (reference) areas.
3. Insect communities in burned plots did not resemble those in reference plots. Treatment plots had greater inter‐annual variability in insect community composition than control or reference plots, suggesting that communities may be less stable in seeded areas. The vegetation composition of the landscape surrounding plots influenced mobile species.
4. Wildfire and post‐fire seeding may have lasting effects on insect communities in sagebrush‐steppe ecosystems. Wildfires decrease shrub cover. Post‐fire seeding increases perennial bunchgrasses and, where successful, reduces non‐native annual grasses. These habitat changes influence insect community composition. Future studies are needed to expand the inference of this study.

Released November 20, 2018 10:58 EST

2018, Journal of Applied Entomology

Darin J. McNeil, Clint R. V. Otto, Erin L. Moser, Katherine R. Urban-Mead, David E. King, Amanda D. Rodewald, Jeffrey L. Larkin

Effective monitoring of native bee populations requires accurate estimates of population size and relative abundance among habitats. Current bee survey methods, such as netting or pan trapping, may be adequate for a variety of study objectives but are limited by a failure to account for imperfect detection. Biases due to imperfect detection could result in inaccurate abundance estimates or erroneous insights about the response of bees to different environments. To gauge the potential biases of currently employed survey methods, we compared abundance estimates of bumblebees (Bombus spp.) derived from hierarchical distance sampling models (HDS) to bumblebee counts collected from fixed‐area net surveys (“net counts”) and fixed‐width transect counts (“transect counts”) at 47 early‐successional forest patches in Pennsylvania. Our HDS models indicated that detection probabilities of Bombus spp. were imperfect and varied with survey‐ and site‐covariates. Despite being conspicuous, Bombus spp. were not reliably detected beyond 5 m. Habitat associations of Bombus spp. density were similar across methods, but the strength of association with shrub cover differed between HDS and net counts. Additionally, net counts suggested sites with more grass hosted higher Bombusspp. densities whereas HDS suggested that grass cover was associated with higher detection probability but not Bombus spp. density. Density estimates generated from net counts and transect counts were 80%–89% lower than estimates generated from distance sampling. Our findings suggest that distance modelling provides a reliable method to assess Bombus spp. density and habitat associations, while accounting for imperfect detection caused by distance from observer, vegetation structure, and survey covariates. However, detection/non‐detection data collected via point‐counts, line‐transects and distance sampling for Bombus spp. are unlikely to yield species‐specific density estimates unless individuals can be identified by sight, without capture. Our results will be useful for informing the design of monitoring programs for Bombus spp.and other pollinators.

Released November 20, 2018 10:40 EST

2018, Journal of Structural Geology (117) 203-218

Miguel T. Nassif, Yvette D. Kuiper, Richard J. Goldfarb, Thomas Monecke, Christopher S. Holm-Denoma

The Garrison camp comprises four structurally distinct orogenic gold deposits that formed in different host lithologies during progressive deformation. Detailed field mapping, drill core logging, and geochronological constraints suggest that the 2678 ± 2 Ma Garrison granitic stock played a fundamental rheological role in the location of the four deposits. Initial local shear movement occurred along the southwestern margin of the stock leading to the development of the NW-trending sinistral NE-side-up Buffonta shear zone, which hosts the Buffonta deposit. Subsequently, a transtensional zone formed between the NE-trending sinistral Porcupine-Destor and Munro deformation zones, which host the 903 and Jonpol deposits, respectively. Finally, a local change in shortening orientation from NE to NNW caused westerly directed extension resulting in the formation of the younger gold-bearing veins composing the Garrcon deposit. In situ U-Pb laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry performed on monazite grains formed within the shear fabric of the Munro deformation zone indicates that transtension occurred at 2657 ± 15 Ma. Therefore, at least three of the four deposits formed subsequent to crystallization of the Garrison granitic stock. The reported U-Pb dates represent the first direct age constraints on the movement along a gold-bearing deformation zone in the southern Abitibi greenstone belt.

Released November 20, 2018 10:33 EST

2018, Global Change Biology

Neal J. Pastick, M. Torre Jorgenson, Scott J. Goetz, Benjamin M. Jones, Bruce K. Wylie, Burke J. Minsley, Hélène Genet, Joseph F. Knight, David K. Swanson, Janet C. Jorgenson

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km²) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions.

Released November 19, 2018 10:53 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1175

Elizabeth R. Milano, Amy G. Vandergast

San Diego County is a hotspot of biodiversity, situated at the intersection of the Baja peninsula, the California floristic province, and the desert southwest. This hotspot is characterized by a high number of rare and endemic species, which persist alongside a major urban epicenter. San Diego County has implemented a strategic management plan that identifies species, based on low numbers of occurrences or high level of threat, for which management practices are recommended. In creating a management plan for rare species, it is important to strike a balance between preserving locally adapted traits and maintaining genetic diversity, as species’ ranges fluctuate in response to a changing climate and habitat fragmentation. This project, in partnership with the San Diego Natural History Museum, aims to provide a reference point for the current status of genetic diversity of rare plant species that will inform future preservation and restoration efforts. We focused on six threatened or endangered plant species: Acanthomintha ilicifolia, Baccharis vanessae, Chloropyron maritimum ssp. maritimum, Deinandra conjugens, Dicranostegia orcuttiana, and Monardella viminea. For each species, botanists from the San Diego Natural History Museum visited all known occurrences in San Diego County and collected leaf tissue for genetic and cytological analysis. We then developed a panel of genetic markers to estimate genetic diversity and population structure. This population genetic survey provided insight into the amount of genetic differentiation across each species’ range, identified isolated occurrences potentially subject to inbreeding or genetic bottlenecks, and identified areas that are rich sources of allelic diversity. Finally, we convened a panel of experts to review results and compatible management options for each species. A summary of the management workshop is included in this report. Overall, we found low genetic differentiation among occurrences across the San Diego region for all species, with the exception of A. ilicifolia. Relative inbreeding was low and consistent across sites, and genetic diversity across sites was variable, with noted exceptions. These findings allow for a wide array of management options that are compatible with panmictic population structure in five of the six surveyed species.

Released November 19, 2018 10:07 EST

2018, Forests (9) 1-35

Jennifer M. Cartwright

Droughts and insect outbreaks are primary disturbance processes linking climate change to tree mortality in western North America. Refugia from these disturbances—locations where impacts are less severe relative to the surrounding landscape—may be priorities for conservation, restoration, and monitoring. In this study, hypotheses concerning physical and biological processes supporting refugia were investigated by modelling the landscape controls on disturbance refugia that were identified using remotely sensed vegetation indicators. Refugia were identified at 30-m resolution using anomalies of Landsat-derived Normalized Difference Moisture Index in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests in southern Oregon, USA, in 2001 (a single-year drought with no insect outbreak) and 2009 (during a multi-year drought and severe outbreak of mountain pine beetle). Landscape controls on refugia (topographic, soil, and forest characteristics) were modeled using boosted regression trees. Landscape characteristics better explained and predicted refugia locations in 2009, when forest impacts were greater, than in 2001. Refugia in lodgepole and whitebark pine forests were generally associated with topographically shaded slopes, convergent environments such as valleys, areas of relatively low soil bulk density, and in thinner forest stands. In whitebark pine forest, refugia were associated with riparian areas along headwater streams. Spatial patterns in evapotranspiration, snowmelt dynamics, soil water storage, and drought-tolerance and insect-resistance abilities may help create refugia from drought and mountain pine beetle. Identification of the landscape characteristics supporting refugia can help forest managers target conservation resources in an era of climate-change exacerbation of droughts and insect outbreaks.

Released November 19, 2018 06:54 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5121

David L. Rus, Brent M. Hall, Steven A. Thomas

Cyanobacteria (also referred to as blue-green algae) are naturally present members of phytoplankton assemblages that may detract from beneficial uses of water because some strains produce cyanotoxins that pose health hazards to people and animals. Cyanobacteria populations observed in Willow Creek Lake during 2012 through 2014 were compared to external nutrient loading from the Willow Creek drainage basin and several other physicochemical properties within the lake, including internal nutrient loading. This report is part of a cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Lower Elkhorn Natural Resources District, the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality, the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources, the Nebraska Environmental Trust, and the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.

Cyanobacteria concentrations were quantified using weekly microcystin sampling, intermittent algal taxonomy, and hourly in-situ phycocyanin measurements. External and internal nutrient loads, lake water physical characteristics, and local meteorological conditions were evaluated as potential causes of cyanobacterial blooms. A water balance approach that estimated Willow Creek Lake inflow and outflow volumes identified Willow Creek as the major inflow and groundwater flux as the major outflow for the lake. Nutrient concentrations from several water sources were quantified and combined with flow volumes to compute nutrient loads during the study period.

Surface flows contributed most external nutrients to the lake, whereas lake nutrients were exported during groundwater losses. The main stem of Willow Creek accounted for most nitrate loads to the lake, whereas total Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, and phosphate loads to the lake were more evenly distributed between Willow Creek and the North Tributary, a smaller drainage. Sediment core incubations determined internal phosphorus loading was a negligible component of the overall nutrient load to the lake.

Cyanobacterial responses were compared to nutrient loads and other external factors that could potentially affect algal growth. A series of univariate comparisons were made by plotting those factors against phycocyanin using biweekly summaries of each and a multivariate model that incorporated seasonality and cumulative nitrate loading. Although the multivariate model only incorporated cumulative nitrate, both nitrogen and phosphorus are likely contributing to cyanobacterial population growth, and management efforts may benefit from the recognition of differences in nutrient loading characteristics between the monitored basins.

Released November 16, 2018 17:30 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1154

Leslie Hsu, Kate E. Allstadt, Tara M. Bell, Erin E. Boydston, Richard A. Erickson, A. Lance Everette, Erika Lentz, Jeff Peters, Brian E. Reichert, Sarah Nagorsen, Jason T. Sherba, Richard P. Signell, Mark T. Wiltermuth, John A. Young

The U.S. Geological Survey Community for Data Integration annually funds small projects focusing on data integration for interdisciplinary research, innovative data management, and demonstration of new technologies. This report provides a summary of the 11 projects funded in fiscal year 2017, outlining their goals, activities, and outputs.

Released November 16, 2018 17:00 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Map 3405

Mel A. Kuntz, Duane E. Champion, Brent R. Turrin, Philip B. Gans, Harry R. Covington, D. Paco VanSistine

The geologic map of the northern half of the Lake Walcott 30ʹ×60ʹ quadrangle shows the volcanic geology of the southern part of the Craters of the Moon lava field, the complex geologic features of the Holocene Kings Bowl and Wapi lava fields, and the southern part of the Great Rift volcanic rift zone. The long extent and distribution of skylights in lava-tube systems of the Horse Butte and Wapi Park lava fields are depicted on this map. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and K/Ar age determinations give detail to the Holocene, late Pleistocene, and late middle Pleistocene volcanic lava fields in this quadrangle. Most of the younger basalt eruptions (less than 150 thousand years [ka]) have occurred along the Great Rift volcanic rift zone, but two of the younger lava fields are located in the western part of the quadrangle. Kimama Butte, a shield volcano, is 87±11 ka, and Shale Butte is dated at 11±6 ka. Paleomagnetic studies have shown that the Horse Butte-Inferno Chasm eruptive fissure system has at least five paleomagnetic-correlative lava fields, the Claasen vent complex consists of at least seven correlative lava fields, and the Streifling-Flat Top vent complex includes at least four correlative lava fields.

This map provides geologic, geochronologic, and paleomagnetic data for Holocene lava fields along the southern part of the Great Rift, and for late Pleistocene and late middle Pleistocene lava fields in the central and western parts of the quadrangle. These data can contribute to wise management and preservation of the Craters of the Moon National Monument and for broad-scale understanding of the basaltic-volcanic evolution of the eastern Snake River Plain.

Released November 16, 2018 16:54 EST

2018, Continental Shelf Research (171) 63-76

Douglas A. George, John L. Largier, Curt D. Storlazzi, Matthew J. Robart, Brian Gaylord

Sediment transport past rocky headlands has received less attention compared to transport along beaches. Here we explore, in a field-based study, possible pathways for sediment movement adjacent to Point Dume, a headland in Santa Monica Bay, California. This prominent shoreline feature is a nearly symmetrical, triangular-shaped promontory interior to the Santa Monica Littoral Cell. We collected current, wave, and turbidity data for 74 days during which several wave events occurred, including one associated with a remote hurricane and another generated by the first winter storm of 2014. We also acquired sediment samples to quantify seabed grain-size distributions. Near-bottom currents towards the headland dominated on both of its sides and wave-driven longshore currents in the surf zone were faster on the exposed side. Bed shear stresseswere generated mostly by waves with minor contributions from currents, but both wave-driven and other currents contributed to sediment flux. On the wave-exposed west side of the headland, suspended sediment concentrations correlated with bed stress suggesting local resuspension whereas turbidity levels on the sheltered east side of the headland are more easily explained by advective delivery. Most of the suspended sediment appears to be exported offshore due to flow separation at the apex of the headland but may not move far given that sediment fluxes at moorings offshore of the apex were small. Further, wave-driven sediment flux in the surf zone is unlikely to pass the headland due to the discontinuity in wave forcing that causes longshore transport in different directions on each side of the headland. It is thus unlikely that sand is transported past the headland (specifically in a westerly direction), although some transport of finer fractions may occur offshore in deep water. These findings of minimal sediment flux past Point Dume are consistent with its role as a littoral cell boundary, although more complex multi-stage processes and unusual events may account for some transport at times.

Released November 16, 2018 16:00 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5097

Mary Ann Thomas

In 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Ohio Water Development Authority, investigated the hydrogeologic setting, chemical and isotopic characteristics, and origin of methane in groundwater of Ohio. Understanding the occurrence and distribution of methane in groundwater is important in terms of public safety because methane in water wells can pose a risk of explosion. In addition, documenting the chemical and isotopic characteristics of methane in groundwater can make an important contribution to future stray gas investigations.

Water samples were collected from 15 domestic water wells known to produce methane, which were in 12 counties in diverse parts of Ohio. The wells were 75–345 feet deep and tapped a range of aquifer types, including glacial deposits and bedrock of Upper Ordovician, Upper Devonian, Lower Mississippian, and Pennsylvanian ages. Although the hydrogeologic settings were varied, there was a broad similarity among the well sites in that the bedrock was predominantly shale and the glacial deposits were predominantly clay.

The wells were sampled for dissolved inorganic constituents; dissolved organic carbon; methane and other dissolved gases; stable isotopes (carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen) of methane, water, and dissolved inorganic carbon; and carbon-14 of methane. Gas composition and stable isotopes of methane were used to differentiate thermogenic and microbial methane. The degree of fractionation of hydrogen and carbon isotopes was used to evaluate the pathway of microbial methanogenesis (carbon dioxide [CO₂] reduction or acetate fermentation) and the effects of secondary processes such as oxidation, mixing, and migration. The concentration of carbon-14 of methane was used to evaluate the relative age of the carbon source.

The quality of water from the 15 wells differed greatly; water types ranged from CaMgHCO₃ to NaCl, and total dissolved solids concentrations ranged from 318 to 2,940 milligrams per liter (mg/L). Methane concentrations ranged from 1.2 to 120 mg/L. Of the 15 samples, 12 had methane concentrations greater than 28 mg/L, the level that can pose a risk of explosion.

Of the 15 samples, 12 had chemical and isotopic characteristics or "signatures" consistent with microbial methane formed by CO₂ reduction. CO₂ reduction is commonly associated with microbial degradation of organic matter in anaerobic aquifers and with the formation of microbial shale gas and coalbed methane along margins of sedimentary basins. Two of 15 samples were interpreted as having a component of thermogenic methane based on the δ¹³C of methane (−50.96 and −47.74 parts per thousand [per mil]) and gas dryness (28 and 5). One of 15 samples (from the shallowest well) had chemical and isotopic characteristics consistent with methane oxidation by sulfate reduction based on light δ¹³C of dissolved inorganic carbon (−31.6 per mil) and evidence of sulfate reduction in terms of the odor and appearance of the water.

For the 12 samples interpreted as microbial methane formed by CO₂ reduction, the δ¹³C of methane varied from −75 to −56 per mil. Multiple samples from the same aquifer demonstrated a general trend of increasing δ¹³C of methane with depth. Samples with lighter δ¹³C of methane (−75 to −62 per mil) were from shallower wells (or wells with shallow open intervals), and the isotopic signature of the water was consistent with modern or postglacial groundwater recharge. Three samples with heavier δ¹³C of methane (−61 to −56 per mil) were from deeper wells or more confined aquifers where the isotopic signature of water was consistent with older (glacial) recharge. In addition, δ¹³C of dissolved inorganic carbon was enriched (+12 to +18.9 per mil), and carbon-14 of methane was consistent with carbon associated with Paleozoic bedrock or older glacial deposits. These observations are generally consistent with increased Rayleigh-type fractionation at greater depths; however, other interpretations are possible. Isotopic signatures can be ambiguous, especially in areas with complex geologic histories that include multiple episodes of migration, mixing, and (or) oxidation.

Many of the wells were in proximity to multiple potential natural and anthropogenic pathways of methane migration; however, it is not possible to determine if the methane in any of the wells is related to human activities based on the chemical and isotopic data collected for this study.

Released November 16, 2018 13:17 EST

2019, Book chapter, PGPR amelioration in sustainable agriculture food security and environmental management

James F. White, Monica S. Torres, Satish Kumar Verma, Matthew T. Elmore, Kurt P. Kowalski, Kathryn L. Kingsley

In this chapter we present a hypothesis, and data supporting it, that vascular plants in diverse families possess symbiotic/endophytic bacteria that frequently vector on or within their seeds; seedlings degrade symbiotic bacteria within roots. Evidence of widespread microbivory was found in a survey for intracellular bacteria that we conducted including seedlings in 36 species of vascular plants distributed in 20 plant families. Experiments indicate that when seeds germinate, bacteria colonize seedlings and internalize into root cells where they are oxidatively-degraded in the periplasmic spaces of cells. The process of degradation of microbes in roots has been termed “rhizophagy”, and “rhizophagy cycle” or “rhizophagy symbiosis” in the case of symbiotic bacteria that alternate between a free-living soil phase and intracellular/endophytic phase. We hypothesize that microbivory could account for a significant portion of nutrients acquired by plants from soils—with one estimate suggesting that as much as 30% of the nutrients acquired by seedlings may stem from rhizophagy symbiosis. Developing a better understanding of rhizophagy symbiosis could lead to new ways to cultivate crops without reliance on excessive agrochemical applications. Learning how to manipulate rhizophagy symbiosis could result in new technologies for reducing growth of weedy or invasive plant species by inhibiting rhizophagy symbiosis.

Released November 16, 2018 13:02 EST

2018, Geological Society of London Special Publications (477)

Jenna C. Hill, Daniel S. Brothers, Matthew J. Hornbach, Derek E. Sawyer, Donna J. Shillington, Anne Bécel

The Cape Fear Slide is one of the largest (>25 000 km³) submarine slope failure complexes on the US Atlantic margin. Here we use a combination of new high-resolution multichannel seismic data (MCS) from the National Science Foundation Geodynamic Processes at Rifting and Subducting Margins (NSF GeoPRISMS) Community Seismic Experiment and legacy industry MCS to derive detailed stratigraphy of this slide and constrain the conditions that lead to slope instability. Limited outer-shelf and upper-slope accommodation space during the Neogene, combined with lowstand fluvial inputs and northwards Gulf Stream sediment transport, appears to have contributed to thick Miocene and Pliocene deposits that onlapped the lower slope. This resulted in burial of an upper-slope bypass zone developed from earlier erosional truncation of Paleogene strata. These deposits created a broad ramp that allowed accumulation of thick Quaternary strata across a low-gradient (<3.5°) upper slope. Upslope of one of the larger headwalls, undulating Quaternary strata appear to downlap onto a buried failure plane. Many of the nested headwalls of the upper-slope portion of slide complex are underlain by deformed strata, which may be the result of fluid migration associated with localized subsidence from salt migration. These new data and observations suggest that antecedent margin physiography, sediment loading and substrate fluid flow were key factors in preconditioning the Cape Fear slope for failure.

Released November 16, 2018 11:50 EST

2018, Book

Neal Woodman

The mammalian taxonomic order Eulipotyphla is comprised of the living taxonomic families Erinaceidae (gymnures, hedgehogs, and moonrats), Solenodontidae (solenodonts), Soricidae (shrews), and Talpidae (desmans and moles). Morphological and molecular studies continue to alter our view of relationships within and among these families, and this research has added considerably to our understanding of the diversity, distributions, and relationships of many of the New World species that belong to them. Currently, there are more than 450 recognized living species worldwide, making the Eulipotyphla the third most speciose order of mammals. New World (North and South America and associated islands) eulipotyphlans currently include 110 recognized species of shrews, seven species of moles, and both living species of solenodons. In this work, I attempt to summarize the taxonomic results of recent studies and provide a guide to the most appropriate current applications of taxonomic names in this region.

Released November 16, 2018 11:21 EST

2018, Deep-Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers

Amanda W. J. Demopoulos, Jill R. Bourque, Alanna Durkin, Erik E. Cordes

Chemosynthetic ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) support dense communities of seep megafaunal invertebrates that rely on endosymbiotic bacteria for nutrition. Distinct infaunal communities are associated with the biogenic habitats created by seep biota, where habitat heterogeneity and sediment geochemistry influence local macrofaunal community structure. Here we examine the community structure and function of seep infaunal communities in the GOM in relation to environmental drivers and estimated proximity to seeps. We modeled seep distribution within 3 major seep fields (AC601, GC852, and AT340), and examined the influence of proximity to seep and associated sediment environment on infaunal community structure and function. To model seep habitat distribution, we used known seep occurrence data from ROV and towed camera images, terrain variables derived from high resolution multibeam bathymetry (gridded to 3 m resolution), and a maximum entropy (Maxent) approach. Model performance was high, with mean area under the curve for each habitat ranging from 0.851 for mussel to 0.908 for tubeworm habitat, with the models highly influenced by terrain rugosity. Replicate sediment cores were collected from the three sites in 2007 and processed for macrofauna and environmental characteristics. A majority of the taxa (86%) occurred within 16 m of modeled seep habitat and increased distance from modeled seeps was generally associated with lower calculated seep index coupled with decreased macrofaunal densities. Distance-based linear regression indicated that patterns in macrofaunal communities were driven by proximity to modeled seep habitat and profile curvature, a metric for the shape of the maximum slope. Similarly, variance in infaunal functional traits was best explained by proximity to seep, but also sediment C:N, reflecting the relative influence of sediment chemistry, including organic content, on infaunal communities. Results suggest that northern GOM seep infaunal community assemblages and their function are structured by factors that influence food availability and habitat heterogeneity. Given the abundance of seeps in the GOM and in the world’s oceans, this study supports the premise that the sphere of influence of seeps is spatially extensive.

Released November 16, 2018 10:54 EST

2019, Science of the Total Environment (654) 763-777

Andrea Funk, Javier Martinez-Lopez, Florian Borgwardt, Daniel Traunder, Kenneth J. Bagstad, Stefano Balbi, Ainhoa Magrach, Ferdinando Villa, Thomas Hein

Large river-floodplain systems are hotspots of biodiversity and ecosystem services but are also used for multiple human activities, making them one of the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. There is wide evidence that reconnecting river channels with their floodplains is an effective measure to increase their multi-functionality, i.e., ecological integrity, habitats for multiple species and the multiple functions and services of river-floodplain systems, although, the selection of promising sites for restoration projects can be a demanding task. In the case of the Danube River in Europe, planning and implementation of restoration projects is substantially hampered by the complexity and heterogeneity of the environmental problems, lack of data and strong differences in socio-economic conditions as well as inconsistencies in legislation related to river management. We take a quantitative approach based on best-available data to assess biodiversity using selected species and three ecosystem services (flood regulation, crop pollination, and recreation), focused on the navigable main stem of the Danube River and its floodplains. We spatially prioritize river-floodplain segments for conservation and restoration based on (1) multi-functionality related to biodiversity and ecosystem services, (2) availability of remaining semi-natural areas and (3) reversibility as it relates to multiple human activities (e.g. flood protection, hydropowerand navigation). Our approach can thus serve as a strategic planning tool for the Danube and provide a method for similar analyses in other large river-floodplain systems.

Released November 15, 2018 14:30 EST

2018, Fact Sheet 2018-3061

Sandra Brosnahan, Christopher R. Sherwood

Unmanned aerial system (UAS) technology provides a rapid and low-cost solution for mapping coastal environments and assessing short- and long-term changes. The interdisciplinary nature of the data collected and the breadth of applications make UAS technology applicable to multiple scientific investigations. The Aerial Imaging and Mapping (AIM) group at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center provides UAS services to scientists to advance the science mission of the Coastal-Marine Hazards and Resources Program. Scientists at the Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center use UASs to acquire imagery of coastal and wetland environments, which is then used to produce detailed topographic and visual reflectance datasets. UAS technology supports the work of geologists, engineers, physical scientists, geographers, and geochemists who study coastal erosion, sediment transport, storm impacts, habitats, biomass, and marsh stability.

Released November 15, 2018 13:33 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5148

Brandon T. Anderson

To improve flood-frequency estimates at rural streams in Mississippi, annual exceedance probability flows at gaged streams and regional regression equations used to estimate annual exceedance probability flows for ungaged streams were developed by using current geospatial data, new analytical methods, and annual peak-flow data through the 2013 water year. The regional regression equations were derived from statistical analyses of peak-flow data and basin characteristics for 281 streamgages and incorporated a newly developed study-specific skew coefficient at streamgages located in five subregional watersheds (Middle Tennessee-Elk, Mobile-Tombigbee, Lower Mississippi-Big Black, Pearl, and Pascagoula) in Mississippi. Three flood regions—A, B, and C—were identified based on residuals from the regional regression analyses and contain sites with similar basin characteristics. Analysis was not conducted for the fourth flood region, the Mississippi Alluvial Plain, because of insufficient long-term streamflow data and poorly defined basin characteristics.

Released November 15, 2018 12:05 EST

2018, Vadose Zone Journal (17) 1-12

Jesse E. Dickinson, T.P.A Ferre

We have developed a screening tool to visualize and conceptualize the filtering properties of a layered vadose zone. Climate projections indicate that rainfall timing and magnitude may change and impact groundwater resources. This increases the importance of understanding how the vadose zone filters infiltration variability and ultimately affects recharge and groundwater resources. An approximate solution for the filtering of surface forcings through soil layers was developed previously, and the soil and conditions where its approximations are appropriate was evaluated. Here we present a screening tool based on the solution for estimating how periodic infiltration forcings filter in a layered vadose zone for different soil properties and surface flux conditions. The solutions identify time-varying elements of surface forcings that persist to the depth of the water table, leading to transient recharge. We investigated the filtering properties of the vadose zone in Central Valley, California, and identified areas where surface forcings are essentially damped and recharge can be approximated as steady. We also determined the travel time for infiltration pulses to reach the depth of the water table.

Released November 14, 2018 16:01 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1166

Michael E. Colvin, Sara Reynolds, Robert B. Jacobson, Landon L. Pierce, Kirk D. Steffensen, Timothy L. Welker

The Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP) was initiated in 2003, and full implementation began in 2006, to monitor the trend of Scaphirhynchus albus (pallid sturgeon) and native fish communities in the Upper and Lower Missouri River Basins. The original PSPAP (v. 1.0) was a catch-effort based monitoring program where population abundance and trend were monitored using a relative index, catch per unit effort. In 2013, the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP), led by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), began a reassessment of science and monitoring approaches to support a new river management plan. The need to redesign the PSPAP was triggered by the recognition that the PSPAP v. 1.0 would not be optimally effective in contributing information needed to make decisions about the pallid sturgeon fundamental management objective—to avoid jeopardizing the continued existence of the pallid sturgeon from USACE actions in the Missouri River—identified in the Missouri River Science and Adaptive Management Plan. The fundamental management objective includes two management subobjectives: (1) increase pallid sturgeon recruitment to age 1 and (2) maintain or increase numbers of pallid sturgeon as an interim measure until sufficient and sustained natural recruitment occurs. These two management subobjectives motivated the development of two fundamental information objectives for PSPAP v. 2.0: (1) to provide information needed to quantify recruitment to age 1 and (2) to quantify pallid sturgeon population abundance and trend. The charge to the authors of this report was to develop an approach to monitoring the pallid sturgeon population in the Missouri River that would contribute information toward gauging overall performance of management actions to achieve the fundamental objectives of the MRRP and to potentially improve understanding of linkages from the management activities to population responses. We used transparent and robust processes to identify alternative monitoring designs that meet the fundamental objectives for managing pallid sturgeon in the MRRP, with a focus on simulation models to evaluate the performance of varying monitoring. This report documents the process of comparing potential alternative monitoring design abilities to provide decision-relevant information for management of the species. The process includes  evaluation of information content and attendant uncertainties and considers tradeoffs in types of information valued by stakeholders. The anticipated end product of this process will be synthesized in a decision-support tool that can be used to facilitate learning and iterative revisions of the monitoring roadmap.

Released November 14, 2018 15:12 EST

2018, Ore Geology Reviews (102) 666-700

Karen Lund, Ryan J. McAleer, John N. Aleinikoff, Michael A. Cosca, Michael J. Kunk

The ore-genesis model for world-class deposits of the Butte mining district, Montana, USA, is deep pre-Main Stage porphyry Cu-Mo and overlying Main Stage Ag-Zn-Cu zoned-lode deposits, both of which formed from hydrothermal fluids driven by minor volumes of rhyolitic magma. The lode-specific model is that hydrothermal processes diminished in intensity outward from district center along lode veins, synchronously forming metal zones. The accepted models are controverted by new geologic and multi-method geochronologic studies.

The new data reveal the following sequence of events: (1) Thermal study of country rock indicates that the 76.9-Ma Butte Granite cooled to 350–400 °C by 4 m.y. after emplacement. (2) Five quartz porphyry rhyolite dikes were emplaced at 67–65 Ma and another at 60 Ma (SHRIMP U-Pb) into the cooled Butte Granite without resetting ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages in country rock. (3) Fifty-eight white mica and K-feldspar samples from alteration envelopes adjacent to Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes in outer parts of the district, Zn-rich lodes in intermediate parts, and Cu-rich lodes in the district center yield ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages of 73–70 Ma for Ag-rich lodes, 65–64 Ma for Cu-rich lodes, and complex age spectra of 69–65 Ma for Zn-rich lodes.

The data show that Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes occupied cross-district fractures by about 73 Ma, forming the greater Butte mining district. At 67–65 Ma, minor quartz porphyry dikes were emplaced into central and eastern parts of the rejuvenated fracture system but without evidence of related cupola or volcanic rocks or of thermal disturbance in the country rock. At 64.5 Ma, overlapping hydrothermal cells formed two stockwork Cu-Mo domes in deep parts of the fracture system. At 65–64 Ma and closely related to late-stage stockwork Cu-Mo activity, a penecontemporaneous hydrothermal pulse formed a high-sulfidation hydrothermal plume that (1) utilized the large re-opened fractures to cannibalize and remobilize Cu from autologous, stockwork, and older Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes, (2) deposited the rich, high-sulfidation Cu lodes, and (3) mobilized metals from early Ag-Au-polymetallic veins in middle parts of the district, transported the metals outward and redeposited them, enriching early veins, especially in the intermediate Zn plus Cu areas.

Metals zones in lodes of the Butte district are the result of an intensely focused, Cu-rich hydrothermal plume that variably reworked the center of significantly larger, 10 m.y. older, Ag-Au-polymetallic lodes.

Released November 14, 2018 15:08 EST

2018, Biological Conservation (228) 310-318

Michael L. Treglia, Adam C Landon, Robert N. Fisher, Gerard Kyle, Lee A. Fitzgerald

Habitat degradation, entwined with land cover change, is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Effects of land cover change on species can be direct (when habitat is converted to alternative land cover types) or indirect (when land outside of the species habitat is altered). Hydrologic and ecological connections between terrestrial and aquatic systems are well understood, exemplifying how spatially disparate land cover conditions may influence aquatic habitats, but are rarely examined. We sought to quantify relative effects of land cover at two different but interacting scales on habitat suitability for the endangered arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus). Based on an existing distribution model for the arroyo toad and available land cover data, we estimated effects of land cover along streams and within entire watersheds on habitat suitability using structural equation modeling. Relationships between land cover and habitat suitability differed between scales, and broader, watershed-scale conditions influenced land cover along the embedded stream networks. We found anthropogenic development and forest cover at the watershed-scale negatively impacted habitat suitability, but development along stream networks was positively associated with suitability. The positive association between development along streams and habitat suitability may be attributable to increased spatial heterogeneity along urbanized streams, or related factors including policies designed to conserve riparian habitats amidst development. These findings show arroyo toad habitat is influenced by land cover across multiple scales, and can inform conservation of the species. Furthermore, our methodology can help elucidate similar dynamics with other taxa, particularly those reliant on both terrestrial and aquatic environments.

Released November 14, 2018 14:56 EST

2018, International Journal of Wildland Fire

Jeffrey E. Lovich, Mickey Agha, Joshua R. Ennen, Terence R. Arundel, Meaghan Austin

Wind turbine-induced fires at a wind energy facility in California, USA, provided an opportunity to study the before and after effects of fire on a population of protected Agassiz’s desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in the Sonoran Desert, a species and ecosystem poorly adapted to fire. We compared annual activity areas (AAs) of tortoises in 2011 and 2013, before and after two 2012 fires, with those of tortoises in adjacent areas unaffected by the same fires. Tortoises in both AAs affected by fire or unaffected by fire occupied the same general AAs in 2013, after the fires, as they did in 2011, before the fires. Some tortoises had both their 2011 and 2013 AAs completely or almost completely within the areas burned by the 2012 fires, despite the proximity of unburned habitat. None of the tortoises with 2011 AAs subsequently unaffected by the 2012 fires shifted their AAs into burned habitat in 2013. For the fire-affected group of tortoises, the mean percentages of 2011 and 2013 AAs burned by the 2012 fires were not significantly different, showing fidelity to the burned areas. Tortoises in both groups generally occupied consistent AAs, even post fire, placing them at potential risk of exposure to unfavourable burned habitat.

Released November 14, 2018 13:43 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1157

J. Rose Wallick, Leslie B. Bach, Mackenzie K. Keith, Melissa Olson, Joseph F. Mangano, Krista L. Jones

This report summarizes a framework for monitoring hydrogeomorphic and vegetation responses to environmental flows in support of the Willamette Sustainable Rivers Program (SRP). The SRP is a partnership between The Nature Conservancy (TNC) and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to provide ecologically sustainable flows downstream of dams while still meeting human needs and congressionally authorized purposes. TNC, USACE, and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed this framework specifically for the spawning reaches and lower, alluvial reaches of the Middle Fork Willamette, McKenzie, North Santiam, South Santiam, and main-stem Santiam Rivers. This monitoring framework links stakeholder-defined ecological goals and environmental flow recommendations with measurable objectives and monitoring activities to assess whether those objectives are achieved. Monitoring activities are described for distinct spatial scales (reaches, zones, and sites), which are coupled with appropriate measurement frequency (monthly to decadal or following specific flow conditions). Initial monitoring efforts could focus on developing baseline datasets for tracking future changes and developing robust relationships between flow and hydrogeomorphic and vegetation processes. These relationships would support stakeholders in developing refined environmental flow recommendations that could be efficiently evaluated in the future using continuous discharge records and strategic field-based monitoring.

Environmental flow recommendations were developed to achieve certain hydraulic targets (generally defined through water-surface elevation and inundation extent) to support critical habitats for native species at different times of the year. Additionally, flow recommendations were created to support geomorphic processes that create and sustain important riparian and aquatic habitats. The spatial extent, depth, timing, duration, and frequency of inundation extents can be monitored using a combination of water-level loggers, crest-stage gages, surveys, and mapping from aerial photographs or satellite images. Changes in channel morphology (such as increases in gravel bars, side channels or channel width) can be evaluated through repeat mapping of aerial photographs or lidar and carried, and repeat surveys of channel-bed elevations could document patterns of incision or aggradation. Changes in bed texture (such as fining or coarsening) could focus on spawning habitats for spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Deposition of fine-grained sediment in floodplain channels could be evaluated with deposition pads, repeat surveys, or lidar.

Environmental flow recommendations also were developed to promote various stages of floodplain forest succession, with a focus on black cottonwood (Populus trichocarpa) because its life history is tightly coupled with floodplain hydrology and disturbance processes. Monitoring approaches for vegetation include strategies for tracking all phases of stand recruitment, establishment, and succession for black cottonwood. Potential recruitment sites can be identified by mapping unvegetated gravel bars from aerial photographs or lidar. Reach-scale patterns of stand recruitment and early succession can be monitored at the reach scale by mapping seral stages of floodplain vegetation from aerial photographs and lidar at the decadal scale. These monitoring approaches also could identify areas of stand recruitment or floodplain recycling. Site-scale monitoring of black cottonwood recruitment and establishment could focus on vegetation plots situated along floodplain transects within laterally dynamic monitoring zones to track seedling establishment or stem exclusion and early seral succession. Reach-scale landcover mapping from aerial photographs and lidar would complement site-scale observations and aid in characterizing overall status and condition of floodplain forests, which could be related to streamflows and hydrogeomorphic processes.

Released November 14, 2018 09:49 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5110

Esther M. Pischel, Henry M. Johnson, Stephen B. Gingerich

Groundwater is an important component of the water resources of the upper Umatilla River Basin of northeastern Oregon. As such, understanding the capacity of the resource is vital. Past studies have estimated recharge in the study area. One recent study of the upper Umatilla River Basin indicated that about 80 percent of recharge entering the groundwater system is discharged to streams in the study area through shallow groundwater-flow paths, leaving about 20 percent of recharge to infiltrate deeper parts of the aquifer system. The purpose of this work is to quantify the spatial distribution and variability of deep aquifer recharge in the study area and to understand the reasons for a relatively low percentage of total recharge reaching the deeper parts of the groundwater-flow system.

The study area is divided into two distinct physiographic regions—the highly dissected Blue Mountains and the lowland plains. Underlying both regions of the study area are basalts of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), which is the principal aquifer in the study area. Deep incision by streams in the Blue Mountains disrupts the lateral continuity of the CRBG aquifer units, and infiltrating water is more readily diverted laterally and discharged to streams and springs. In the lowland plains, incision is less pronounced. The shallow CRBG units might be disrupted, but deeper aquifer units retain their lateral continuity and enable groundwater to infiltrate deeper and flow laterally farther downgradient before discharging.

Recharge to the deep basalt aquifers is estimated as the difference between total recharge and base flow. Total recharge is the portion of precipitation and applied irrigation water that infiltrates past the root zone to become groundwater recharge. Of this total recharge, a proportion discharges to springs and streams in the study area, and the remaining water infiltrates below the base level of streams and recharges the deep basalt aquifers and contributes to the regional groundwater flow system. The portion of total recharge that recharges the regional flow system is referred to as deep aquifer recharge.

Total recharge is the portion of precipitation and applied irrigation water that infiltrates past the root zone to become groundwater recharge. It is the sum of recharge from precipitation and recharge from infiltration of irrigation water. Recharge from precipitation was calculated using a regression method developed for the Columbia Plateau. Recharge from infiltrating irrigation water was obtained from a water balance model developed for the Columbia Plateau.

Base flow, the component of streamflow that represents groundwater discharge as opposed to runoff from the land surface, was estimated using the Base Flow Index Modified (BFI-Modified) method, an empirical hydrograph separation technique. Base flow was estimated in eight subbasins with streamgages within the study area. Five of the eight subbasins in which base flow was estimated had permitted water rights for irrigation that specified surface water as the primary source of water. Maximum surface-water withdrawal for irrigation was estimated for all subbasins in which water rights for irrigation occur.

The base-flow estimate from BFI-Modified is assumed to be the minimum amount of base flow. The sum of the BFIModified base-flow estimate and the maximum permitted surface-water withdrawal estimate for each subbasin is assumed to be the maximum amount of base flow at the streamgage. These minimum and maximum estimates of base flow were used to calculate minimum and maximum values of deep aquifer recharge in each subbasin analyzed within the study area. Subbasin estimates were scaled up to the Blue Mountains and lowland plains regions, and to the entire study area.

Mean annual total recharge for 1981–2010 in the subbasins, analyzed as part of this work, ranged from 6 inches (in.) in the Patawa and Wildhorse Creek subbasins in the lowland plains to as much as 20 in. in the Umatilla River above Meacham Creek subbasin. Mean annual total recharge totaled 4 in. in the lowland plains region and 14 in. in the Blue Mountains. Mean annual total recharge for the entire study area was 11 in.

Mean annual base flow ranged from 1 in. in the Patawa and Wildhorse Creek subbasins in the lowland plains to as much as 14 in. in the Umatilla River above Meacham Creek subbasin in the Blue Mountains.

Mean annual deep aquifer recharge ranged from 4 in. in the Patawa and Wildhorse Creek subbasins in the lowland plains to as much as 8 in. in the Isqu’ulktpe Creek subbasin in the Blue Mountains. Deep aquifer recharge was 3–4 in. in the lowland plains region and 6 in. in the Blue Mountains. Over the entire study area, mean annual deep aquifer recharge was 5 in.

Most groundwater recharge (both total and deep aquifer) in the study area occurred in the Blue Mountains, which highlights the importance of the Blue Mountains as the principal source of groundwater for the study area and for aquifers farther downgradient. Total recharge in the Blue Mountains region represents 86 percent of the mean annual total recharge in the study area in an area that encompasses 65 percent of the study area. However, only 43–44 percent of the mean annual total recharge remains in the system to recharge the deeper, regional aquifer system because the rest is discharged as base flow within the Blue Mountains region. Within the lowland plains region of the study area, an estimated 67–84 percent of the mean annual total recharge remains in the system to recharge the deep, regional aquifer system. Although total recharge in the study area represents only 14 percent of the total recharge across the study area, it contributes 20–24 percent of the water to the deep aquifer.

The difference in the percentage of deep groundwater recharge in the Blue Mountains and the lowland plains is attributed to differences in the degree of stream incision. Stream channels are more incised in the Blue Mountains region than they are in the lowland plains. The dissection of the landscape in the Blue Mountains disrupts the lateral continuity of the CRBG aquifer units and allows groundwater to discharge to springs and streams rather than infiltrate more deeply. In the lowland plains region, incision is much less pronounced and deeper CRBG units likely retain their lateral continuity, enabling groundwater to infiltrate more deeply than in the Blue Mountains.

Released November 13, 2018 15:21 EST

2010, Rangeland Ecology and Management (63) 40-50

Liping Zhang, Bruce K. Wylie, Lei Ji, Tagir G. Gilmanov, Larry L. Tieszen

The Northern Great Plains grasslands respond differently under various climatic conditions; however, there have been no detailed studies investigating the interannual variability in carbon exchange across the entire Northern Great Plains grassland ecosystem. We developed a piecewise regression model to integrate flux tower data with remotely sensed data and mapped the 8-d and 500-m net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the years from 2000 to 2006. We studied the interannual variability of NEE, characterized the interannual NEE difference in climatically different years, and identified the drought impact on NEE. The results showed that NEE was highly variable in space and time across the 7 yr. Specifically, NEE was consistently low (−35 to 322 g C·m⁻²·yr⁻¹) with an average annual NEE of −2 ± 242 g C·m⁻²·yr⁻¹ and a cumulative flux of −152 g C·m⁻². The Northern Great Plains grassland was a weak source for carbon during 2000–2006 because of frequent droughts, which strongly affected the carbon balance, especially in the Western High Plains and Northwestern Great Plains. Comparison of the NEE map with a drought monitor map confirmed a substantial correlation between drought and carbon dynamics. If drought severity or frequency increases in the future, the Northern Great Plains grasslands may become an even greater carbon source.

Released November 11, 2018 09:49 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5119

Cassi L. Crow, Stephen P. Opsahl, Diana E. Pedraza, Emily C. Pease, Ross K. Kushnereit

The extensive development of oil and natural-gas resources in south Texas during the past 10 years has led to questions regarding possible environmental effects of processes associated with oil and natural-gas production, in particular the process of hydraulic fracturing, on water and other natural resources. Part of the lower San Antonio River watershed intersects an area of oil and natural-gas production from the sedimentary rocks that compose the Eagle Ford Group.

The rapid expansion of infrastructure associated with oil and natural-gas production increases potential pathways for inorganic and organic contaminants to enter surface-water systems. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, analyzed geospatial data from different years (2008 and 2015) to evaluate changes in land cover associated with oil and natural-gas production activities in the lower San Antonio River watershed. Impervious surface in this study is defined as land cover consisting of well pads, oil- and gas-related features, or roads. The areal coverage associated with impervious surface increased from 201 acres to 5,390 acres (net increase of 5,189 acres) between 2008 and 2015. The total percentage of the study area accounted for by impervious surface resulting from oil and natural-gas production activities increased from 0.034 percent to 0.912 percent, which is an increase of approximately 27-fold. Collectively, 0.878 percent of the study area was converted to new impervious surface between 2008 and 2015. If the area associated with new storage ponds (0.066 percent) is added to the estimate of total land-cover changes as a result of oil and natural-gas production, then 0.944 percent of the study area was altered.

During 2015–17, surface-water samples collected from 5 sites and streambed-sediment samples collected from 17 sites in the lower San Antonio River watershed were analyzed for a broad range of constituents that might be associated with oil and natural-gas production. All major elements, trace elements, semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured in surface-water samples were detected at concentrations less than any of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s water-quality standards. In general, the greatest SVOC and VOC concentrations were observed in samples collected from sites upstream from the area of active oil and natural-gas production and just downstream from urban areas. The lack of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and all isomers of xylene (hereinafter referred to as BTEX) for most sites within the area of active oil and natural-gas production indicates that little, if any, local runoff associated with the area of active oil and natural-gas production has contaminated the surface water with BTEX compounds. Glycols, which are commonly used in hydraulic fracturing fluids as scale inhibitors, were detected in one surface-water sample from Ecleto Creek within the area of oil and natural-gas production; however, the presence of glycols does not necessarily indicate contamination from hydraulic fracturing fluid. The glycols detected also have other potential sources including the use of diethylene and ethylene glycols in antifreeze used in vehicles and the use of triethylene glycol in antibacterial air sanitizers.

The concentrations of select constituents in the streambed-sediment samples were compared to sediment quality guidelines (SQGs). The SQGs evaluate the potential toxicity of bed sediments to sediment-dwelling organisms. Two SQG concentration levels are used: (1) a lower level, called the threshold effect concentration (TEC), below which harmful effects to benthic biota are not expected, and (2) a higher level, the probable effect concentration (PEC), above which harmful effects are expected to occur frequently. The PEC for arsenic was exceeded in a sample collected from one site on Ecleto Creek. The origin of the elevated arsenic concentration is unknown; the contamination likely is not related to oil and natural-gas production because the site of the sample collection is located upstream from the area of active oil and natural-gas production. Streambed-sediment samples were analyzed for selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) because PAHs can be used as indicators of petroleum hydrocarbons associated with produced waters. Each streambed-sediment sample was analyzed for two size fractions of PAHs: less than (<) 63 micrometers (μm) and < 2 millimeters (mm). Total PAH concentrations in all samples, regardless of size fraction, were less than the TEC for total PAHs of 1,610 micrograms per kilogram. Total PAH concentrations generally were greater in the <63-μm size-fraction samples than in the <2-mm size-fraction samples, indicating that PAHs could potentially sorb more readily to the exclusively silt- and clay-sized particles that compose <63-μm size-fraction samples than to the mixture of silt and clay and larger sized particles that compose the <2-mm size-fraction samples. Total PAH concentrations typically were greater in the samples collected from the sites upstream from the area of active oil and natural-gas production compared to those collected from sites within the area in both the <2-mm and <63-μm size-fraction samples. The smaller PAH concentrations measured in samples collected from within the area of active oil and natural-gas production in comparison to the upstream urbanized areas indicate relatively minor additional local contributions of PAHs of uncertain origin to the watershed.

Released November 09, 2018 14:57 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5115

Paul R. Stumpner, Aaron R. Blake, Jon R. Burau

Estimates of fish entrainment on the Sacramento River near the Fremont Weir are a critical component in determining the feasibility and design of a proposed notch in the weir to increase access to the Yolo Bypass, a seasonal floodplain of the Sacramento River. Detailed hydrodynamic and velocity measurements were made at a river bend near the Fremont Weir in the winter and spring of 2016 to examine backwater conditions and estimate the hydraulic entrainment zone, a zone where fish would be predicted to be entrained into the notch. Secondary circulation near the river bend was shown to shift the velocity and discharge distributions toward the outside of the bend. Variability in the stage-discharge relation was shown to be the biggest source of uncertainty in determining the location of the hydraulic entrainment zone. Outflow from the Sutter Bypass and high flow on the Feather River resulted in backwater conditions near the Fremont Weir about 25 percent of the time over the 27-year period from April 1990–April 2017. Velocity measurements used to estimate the critical streakline position (the outer edge of the hydraulic entrainment zone) were not made over a sufficient range of conditions to explicitly quantify the variability in the location of the critical streakline. The variability in the critical streakline position was therefore represented stochastically with a random effects model. The estimated position of the critical streakline and the random effects model are input parameters used in a simulation designed to estimate fish entrainment over a 15-year period. The estimates of the critical streakline and likely fish entrainment could be much improved with velocity measurements over a broader range of stage and discharge conditions.

Released November 09, 2018 14:39 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1140

Thomas M. Marston, Nora C. Nelson

Released November 08, 2018 16:54 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1152

Lawrence D. Igl, Wesley E. Newton, Todd A. Grant, Cami S. Dixon

Burning and grazing are natural processes in native prairies that also serve as important tools in grassland management to conserve plant diversity, to limit encroachment of woody and invasive plants, and to maintain or improve prairies. Native prairies managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) in the Prairie Pothole Region of the northern Great Plains have been extensively invaded by nonnative, cool-season species of grasses. These invasions were believed to reflect a common management history of long-term rest and little or no defoliation by natural processes (burning and grazing). To address the challenges associated with these invasive species, the FWS embraced a collaborative approach in 2008, in partnership with U.S. Geological Survey, to restore native prairies on lands managed by FWS. This approach is known as the Native Prairie Adaptive Management (NPAM) initiative and was based on the application of an adaptive decision-support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions despite uncertainty and in maximizing learning from management outcomes. The primary objective of this approach was to increase the composition of native grasses and forbs on native, unbroken sod while minimizing costs. The alternative management actions that were used to meet this objective include grazing, burning, burning and grazing, and rest (no action).

A major challenge for FWS resource managers participating in the NPAM initiative was the recognition that other taxa, besides native grasses and forbs, may be affected by the alternative management practices, thus complicating the adaptive-management cycle and deepening the uncertainty. Specifically, many grassland birds are sensitive to changes in vegetation composition and structure, and thus management that alters vegetation also may affect bird populations. The primary objectives of this study were to assess the effects of alternative management actions on grassland birds on FWS-owned grasslands that are managed under the adaptive-management framework, and to assess the association of vegetation structure and composition as mechanisms for triggering grassland bird responses to management.

We surveyed breeding birds and sampled vegetation on 89 native prairie NPAM units managed by the FWS during 2011–13, including 55 units in 2011, 87 units in 2012, and 87 units in 2013. The NPAM units were in 19 FWS refuge complexes and wetland management districts, including 14 complexes in FWS Region 6 (North Dakota, South Dakota, and Montana) and 5 complexes in FWS Region 3 (Minnesota). Generalized linear mixed models were used to evaluate the effects of management actions on vegetation structure, vegetation composition, and densities of common bird species. Vegetation structure and composition varied among study units and years, and many of these differences were linked to specific management activities or to the recency of those activities. We recorded 110 bird species in the 89 adaptive-management units. Models of bird abundance reflected not only disturbance-derived changes in vegetation structure and species-specific vegetation preferences but also the influence of defoliation treatments. Vegetation composition was less important to grassland birds than vegetation structure; in particular, mean vertical obstruction (vegetation height-density), bare-ground cover, and litter depth positively or negatively influenced densities of some grassland bird species. The diversity of bird responses to management in this study underscores the complexity of natural grassland systems and the need for heterogeneity management in grasslands in this region.

Released November 08, 2018 16:47 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Map 3404

Marc A. Hunter, Trent M. Hare, Rosalyn K. Hayward, Nancy L. Chabot, Christopher D. Hash, Brett W. Denevi, Carolyn M. Ernst, Scott L. Murchie, David T. Blewett, Erick R. Malaret, Sean C. Solomon, Kris J. Becker, Tammy L. Becker, Lynn A. Weller, Kenneth L. Edmundson, Gregory A. Neuman, Erwan Mazarico, Mark E. Perry

Map Descriptions

Sheet 1: This image mosaic is based on observations acquired by the Mercury Dual Imaging System (MDIS; Hawkins and others, 2009), an instrument on the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, Geochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft (Solomon and others, 2007). The Mercator projection is used between latitudes ±57°, with a central meridian at 0° longitude and latitude equal to the nominal scale at 0°. The polar stereographic projection is used for the regions north of the +55° parallel and south of the –55° parallel, with a central meridian set for both at 0° and a latitude of true scale at +90° and –90°, respectively. All features greater than 100 km in diameter or length were included unless they were not visible at the printed map scale. Some selected well-known features less than 100 km in diameter or length were also included. For listed references, please open the full PDF.

Sheet 2: This map is based on data acquired by the Mercury Dual Imaging System (MDIS; Hawkins and others, 2009) and Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA; Cavanaugh and others, 2007) instruments on the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA) MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, Geochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft (Solomon and others, 2007). The topographic shaded-relief maps were generated from the original MDIS- and MLA-based DEMs with a sun angle of 45° from horizontal and a sun azimuth of 270°, as measured clockwise from north, with no vertical exaggeration. The DEM values were then mapped to a global color look-up table, with each color representing a range of 1 km of elevation. The shaded-relief and color files were then merged and scaled to 1:20,000,000 for the Mercator portion and 1:12,157,366 for the two polar stereographic parts with a resolution of 300 pixels per inch. The two projections have a common scale at ±56° latitude. The Mercator projection is used between latitudes ±57°, with a central meridian at 0° longitude and latitude equal to the nominal scale at 0°. The polar stereographic projection is used for the regions north of the +55° parallel and south of the –55° parallel, with a central meridian set for both at 0° and a latitude of true scale at +90° and –90°, respectively. All features greater than 200 km in diameter or length were included unless they were not visible at the printed map scale. Some selected well-known features less than 200 km in diameter or length were also included. Sheet 2 is offered digitally as a layered PDF with two elevation color ramp options—the original printed version and a multicolored ramp developed by the MESSENGER team for their global products. For listed references, please open the full PDF.

Released November 08, 2018 14:19 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1174

Russell W. Perry, Edward C. Jones, John M. Plumb, Nicholas A. Som, Nicholas J. Hetrick, Thomas B. Hardy, Joseph C Polos, Aaron C. Martin, Justin S. Alvarez, Kyle P. De Juilio

Executive Summary

In this report, we constructed and parameterized the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) for the 64-kilometer “Restoration Reach” of the Trinity River, just downstream of Lewiston Dam in northern California. S3 is a deterministic life-stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density-dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily timeseries of discharge, water temperature, and useable habitat area or carrying capacity. In turn, the physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units.

The physical template of the Restoration Reach was formed by classifying the river into 356 meso-habitat units comprised of runs, riffles, and pools. For each habitat unit, we developed a timeseries of daily flow, water temperature, amount of available spawning habitat, and fry and parr carrying capacity. Capacity timeseries were constructed using state-of-the-art models of spatially explicit hydrodynamics and quantitative fish habitat relationships developed for the Trinity River. These variables were then used to drive population dynamics such as egg growth and survival and juvenile movement, growth, and survival.

Released November 08, 2018 11:19 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5133

Kathleen E. Conn, Robert W. Black, Craig A. Senter, Norman T. Peterson, Ann Vanderpool-Kimura

The sediments in the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund site in Seattle, Washington, are contaminated with chemicals including metals such as arsenic, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (cPAHs), and dioxins/furans from decades of intense anthropogenic activities. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Washington State Department of Ecology, collected new data from 2013 to 2017 to estimate sediment and chemical loads transported by the Green/Duwamish River to the Lower Duwamish Waterway Superfund site (the final 8-kilometer reach of the river) in support of sediment remediation within the site. Chemical loads were calculated as the product of river suspended-sediment loads and suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations measured at river kilometer 16.7.

Using four different approaches, annual suspended sediment-bound chemical load estimates transported by the river to the Lower Duwamish Waterway were in the range of 1,120–1,470 kilograms arsenic, 2,810–8,200 grams (g) toxic equivalent cPAHs, 205–407 milligrams toxic equivalent dioxins/furans, and 340–1,180 g PCBs. Storm events contributed a disproportionately large amount of the load of anthropogenic organic compounds such as cPAHs (54 percent), dioxins/furans (44 percent), and PCBs (52 percent) as compared to overall time (17 percent).

Chemical concentrations and load estimates often were underestimated using results from unfiltered water analysis only, especially in samples with high suspended-sediment concentrations and for hydrophobic organic chemicals such as cPAHs that prefer to sorb to particulates and are at low concentrations near or below the analytical limits of water methods. For metals and PCBs, the dissolved concentration was relatively low and consistent between sampling events, whereas the suspended sediment-bound chemical concentrations contributed most of the chemical concentration in the water column during periods of high river suspended-sediment concentrations. However, the dissolved fraction, on average, contributed more than one-third of the estimated total chemical load in the river system for arsenic and PCBs, even given the hydrophobic nature of the chemicals. These results suggest that the sum of the chemical concentrations measured on two separate fractions—the particulate fraction and the dissolved fraction—more fully represents the total chemical concentration as compared to analysis of an unfiltered water sample, especially in samples with high suspended-sediment concentrations.

Most of the suspended-sediment load (97 percent) and sediment-bound chemical load (92–94 percent) occurred during the wet winter half of the year from October 15 to April 14. However, the highest sediment-bound chemical concentrations often occurred during short intense storms or “first flush” autumn runoff events during the dry summer half of the year from April 15 to October 14. Because of the highly variable and dynamic river system characteristics (including precipitation, discharge, sediment concentration, and tidal fluctuations), it is critical to characterize the occurrence, frequency, concentrations, and loads during extreme conditions (for example, when the river is affected by storm-derived runoff) rather than time-averaged conditions. These short extreme events have a high potential for acute effects on ecological and human health, and may have a great influence on the effectiveness of the sediment remediation activities that are underway in the Lower Duwamish Waterway.

Released November 08, 2018 10:30 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Map 3399

Jeremiah B. Workman, James C. Cole, Ralph R. Shroba, Karl S. Kellogg, Wayne R. Premo

The rocks and landforms of the Fort Collins 30′ × 60′ 1:100,000-scale U.S. Geological Survey quadrangle reveals a particularly complete record of geologic history in the northern Front Range of Colorado. The Proterozoic basement rocks exposed in the core of the range preserve evidence of Paleoproterozoic marine sedimentation, volcanism, and regional soft-sediment deformation, followed by regional folding and gradational metamorphism. Mesoproterozoic time was marked by intrusion of the Berthoud Plutonic Suite into crust that was structurally neutral or moderately extending in an east-northeast direction.

Evidence of the late Paleozoic Anasazi uplift (Ancestral Rocky Mountains uplift) within the quadrangle is recorded by removal of Permian and older sediments and deposition of proximal Pennsylvanian and Permian strata unconformably onto the exhumed Proterozoic basement rocks. The Phanerozoic sediments indicate a steady progression of fluvial, eolian, and lacustrine environments throughout most of the Mesozoic Era which was a time of relatively slow sediment accumulation. Early Cretaceous time was marked by incursion of the Cretaceous Western Interior Seaway, a shallow-water marine embayment that persisted throughout the latter part of the Mesozoic Era. Sedimentation rates increased significantly in the latter part of this period during down-warping related to distant crustal loading by thrusting along the western continental margin.

With onset of the Laramide orogeny in latest Cretaceous time, mountain building resumed in this region. This deformation placed Proterozoic rock over Cretaceous and Paleocene strata along the western margin of the Front Range and Medicine Bow Mountains. Post-Laramide time was marked by a prolonged period of weathering, erosion, and planation of the basement-rock surface, extending perhaps into late Oligocene or early Miocene time.

Erosion on the eastern slope of the Front Range in late Paleogene to early Neogene time produced a broad, rolling surface surrounding residual highlands and east-trending fluvial channels filled with coarse, boulder gravel.

Significant global cooling during the Pliocene led to glaciation during the Quaternary. In the Rocky Mountain region, renewed uplift allowed erosion to accentuate the topographic relief across the high mountains of the map area and established the elevations necessary to trigger accumulation of persistent snow and ice. Mountain glaciers advanced and retreated during at least three glacial-interglacial cycles during the middle and late Pleistocene in this area.

Erosion continues to this day on the High Plains east of the mountain front, and progressive incision of the drainage is recorded by at least five major gravel-clad terrace and pediment surfaces along the major fluvial channels that connect to the South Platte River system.

Released November 07, 2018 14:59 EST

2018, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment (16) 311-311

Jill S. Baron, Catherine O'Riordan

A scientific society like ESA is not just an office, nor an annual meeting, nor one or more journals, and it cannot operate without volunteer leadership. ESA is its members. It is the collective efforts of many individuals that create a vibrant organization. Members step forward in service to the society and to the community review journal articles, organize symposia and field trips at the Annual Meeting, serve on standing program committees and as Section Officers, and make strategic and financial decisions for the society as members of the Governing Board. With a small headquarters staff, much of the work accomplished by ESA rests on the shoulders of volunteer members and leaders. The combined efforts of hundreds of individuals allow ESA to develop and advance programs and maximize the society’s impact in advancing science and engaging communities. ESA is committed to being a leader in communicating ecological science among scientists and to promoting its use in our threatened world. ESA can only achieve these goals however, if its members make it happen.

Released November 07, 2018 14:54 EST

2018, Techniques and Methods 7-C19

Juniper Simonis, Daniel Dalthorp, Manuela Huso, Jeffrey Mintz, Lisa Madsen, Paul Rabie, Jared Studyvin

GenEst (Generalized Estimator) is a software tool for estimating the total number of individuals arriving in an area during a specific time period when their detection probability is unknown but estimable. Its development was motivated by the need to accurately estimate the total number of bird and bat fatalities occurring at wind and solar energy facilities, but it is applicable in a variety of other contexts as well. Simple counts of carcasses are not an accurate measure of the true number of fatalities because some carcasses are inevitably missed in carcass searches. Furthermore, simple carcass counts do not allow comparison among locations or years because carcasses may be detected at different rates. This software uses data collected during carcass searches and estimates of detection rates to accurately estimate the number of fatalities and to provide a measure of precision associated with the estimate. These estimates are fundamental to understanding acute and cumulative effects of renewable energy development on wildlife populations. The software package is available with a user-friendly graphic interface as well as a flexible and powerful command-line implementation. GenEst includes tools for estimating searcher efficiency, carcass persistence, and other detection probability parameters from experimental field trials. Included in the software are example datasets for analyses, standard R package help files, this user guide, and vignettes detailing use at the command-line.

Released November 07, 2018 14:53 EST

2018, Environmental Science & Technology (52) 12162-12171

Peter L. Lenaker, Steven R. Corsi, Sandra L. McLellan, Mark A. Borchardt, Hayley T. Olds, Deborah K. Dila, Susan K. Spencer, Austin K. Baldwin

Hydrologic, seasonal, and spatial variability of sewage contamination was studied at six locations within a watershed upstream from water reclamation facility (WRF) effluent to define relative loadings of sewage from different portions of the watershed. Fecal pollution from human sources was spatially quantified by measuring two human-associated indicator bacteria (HIB) and eight human-specific viruses (HSV) at six stream locations in the Menomonee River watershed in Milwaukee, Wisconsin from April 2009 to March 2011. A custom, automated water sampler, which included HSV filtration, was deployed at each location providing unattended, flow-weighted, large-volume (30-913 L) sampling. In addition, wastewater influent samples were composited over discrete seven-day periods from the two Milwaukee WRFs. Of the eight HSV only three were detected, present in up to 38% of the 228 stream samples, while at least one HSV was detected in all WRF influent samples. HIB occurred more often with significantly higher concentrations than the HSV in stream and WRF influent samples (p<0.05). HSV yield calculations showed a loss from upstream to the most downstream sub-watershed of the Menomonee River, and in contrast, a positive HIB yield from this same sub-watershed emphasizes the complexity in fate and transport properties between HSV and HIB. This study demonstrates the utility of analyzing multiple HSV and HIB to provide a weight of evidence approach for assessment of fecal contamination at the watershed level, provides an assessment of relative loadings for prioritizing areas within a watershed, and demonstrates how loadings of HSV and HIB can be inconsistent, inferring potential differences in fate and transport between the two indicators of human fecal presence.

Released November 07, 2018 14:32 EST

2018, Techniques and Methods 7-A2

Daniel Dalthorp, Lisa Madsen, Manuela Huso, Paul Rabie, Robert Wolpert, Jared Studyvin, Juniper Simonis, Jeffrey Mintz

Introduction

GenEst (a generalized estimator of mortality) is a suite of statistical models and software tools for generalized mortality estimation. It was specifically designed for estimating the number of bird and bat fatalities at solar and wind power facilities, but both the software (Dalthorp and others, 2018) and the underlying statistical models are general enough to be useful in various situations to estimate the size of open populations when detection probabilities and search coverages are less than 1. In this report, we outline the statistical models and data structures underlying the estimator. The models are numerous, complex, and intricately interwoven. Discussion begins with broad, high-level overviews of the general models. The lower-level technical details are then gradually added. Broader and less technical discussions on the general context and applications of the models and the use of the software are available in the software user guide (Simonis and others, 2018), vignettes bundled with the software, and the help files within the software itself.

Released November 07, 2018 14:17 EST

2018, Heliyon (4) 1-24

Celeste A. Journey, Peter C. Van Metre, Daniel T. Button, Jimmy M. Clark, Mark D. Munn, Naomi Nakagaki, Sharon L. Qi, Ian R. Waite, Paul M. Bradley

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Southeastern Stream Quality Assessment (SESQA) collected weekly samples for nitrogen and phosphorus in 76 wadeable streams in the urbanized Piedmont ecoregion of the Southeastern United States, during April–June 2014. Total nitrogen (TN) concentrations in excess of EPA guidelines and statistically greater than at reference locations indicated nitrogen-nutrient enrichment in streams draining poultry confined animal feeding operations (CAFO) or urban centers. Nitrate plus nitrite (NO3 + NO2) dominated TN species in urban/CAFO-influenced streams. Streams that drained poultry CAFO and Washington DC had statistically higher NO3 + NO2 concentrations than streams draining Atlanta, Charlotte, Greenville, or Raleigh. In contrast, total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in Atlanta and Washington DC streams statistically were comparable to and lower than, respectively, reference stream concentrations. Over 50% of TP concentrations in Greenville, Charlotte, Raleigh and CAFO-influenced streams exceeded the EPA guideline and reference location mean concentrations, indicating phosphorus-nutrient enrichment. Urban land use, permitted point sources, and soil infiltration metrics best predicted TN exceedances. Elevated TN and NO3 + NO2 concentrations in urban streams during low flow were consistent with reduced in-stream dilution of point-source or groundwater contributions. Urban land use, permitted point sources, and surface runoff metrics best predicted TP exceedances. Elevated TP in CAFO and urban streams during high flow were consistent with non-point sources and particulate transport.

Released November 07, 2018 14:06 EST

2018, Bee World

Vanessa Corby-Harris, Julia H. Bowsher, Morgan Carr-Markell, Mark J. Carroll, Mary Centrella, Steven C. Cook, Margaret Couvillon, Gloria DeGrandi-Hoffman, Adam Dolezal, Julia C. Jones, Christina Mogren, Clint R. V. Otto, Pierre Lau, Juliana Rangel, Roger Schurch, Ashley St. Clair

No abstract available.

Released November 07, 2018 14:01 EST

2018, Journal of Coastal Research (Special issue 85) 241-245

Qian Zhang, Zheng Gong, Changkuan Zhang, Jessica R. Lacy, Bruce E. Jaffe, Beibei Xu

Understanding the influence of waves on bed shear stress is critical for predicting morphodynamical behaviours in coastal areas. Near-bed flow was measured on the middle and lower intertidal mudflats along the Jiangsu coast, China, using a three-dimensional acoustic velocimeter that collected a 3.5-cm vertical profile at 1mm resolution and sample rate of 25 Hz. On the lower and middle tidal flats, velocities from ~2.5-6 cmab (cm above bed) and ~0-3 cmab were measured, respectively. Current-induced bed shear stresses were calculated from turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) at the 11th measurement layer (i.e., 5.1 cm below the probe) using wave-turbulence decomposition and from a logarithmic fit to the horizontal mean velocity profile (LP). A wave boundary layer extended from the bed up to 3 cmab when the significant wave height was 0.23 m; when it was present the near-bed mean velocity profile was non-logarithmic. Waves suppress the development of a vertical velocity gradient and lead to an overestimation of bed shear stress when calculated using the log profile assumption. The TKE method is more accurate than the LP method when waves are present and measurements are at least partially within the wave boundary layer. Accurate calculation of current-induced bed shear stress depends on probe height and wave conditions.

Released November 06, 2018 16:20 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1156

Annie Simpson, Meghan C. Eyler

Invasive species are a subset of non-native (or alien) species, and knowing what species are non-native to a region is a first step to managing invasive species. People have been compiling non-native and invasive species lists ever since these species started causing harm, yet national non-native species lists are neither universal, nor common. Non-native species lists serve diverse purposes: watch lists for preventing invasions, inventory and monitoring lists for research and modeling, regulatory lists for species control, and nonregulatory lists for raising awareness. This diversity of purpose and the lists’ variation in geographic scope make compiling comprehensive lists of established (or naturalized) species for large regions difficult. However, listing what species are non-native in an area helps measure Essential Biodiversity Variables for invasive species monitoring and mount an effective response to established non-native species. In total, 1,166 authoritative sources were reviewed to compile the first comprehensive non-native species list for three large regions of the United States: Alaska, Hawaii, and the conterminous United States (lower 48 States). The list contains 11,344 unique names: 598 taxa for Alaska, 5,848 taxa for Hawaii, and 6,675 taxa for the conterminous United States. The list is available to the public from U.S. Geological Survey ScienceBase (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9E5K160), and the intent, though not a guarantee, is to update the list as non-native species become established in, or are eliminated from, the United States. The list has been used to annotate non-native species occurrence records in the U.S. Geological Survey all-taxa mapping application, Biodiversity Information Serving Our Nation (BISON, https://bison.usgs.gov).

Released November 06, 2018 14:55 EST

2018, Scientific Reports (8) 1-10

Laura Bianucci, Karthik Balaguru, Richard W. Smith, Ruby Leung, Julia M. Moriarty

Hurricanes passing over the ocean can mix the water column down to great depths and resuspend massive volumes of sediments on the continental shelves. Consequently, organic carbon and reduced inorganic compounds associated with these sediments can be resuspended from anaerobic portions of the seabed and re-exposed to dissolved oxygen (DO) in the water column. This process can drive DO consumption as sediments become oxidized. Previous studies have investigated the effect of hurricanes on DO in different coastal regions of the world, highlighting the alleviation of hypoxic conditions by extreme winds, which drive vertical mixing and re-aeration of the water column. However, the effect of hurricane-induced resuspended sediments on DO has been neglected. Here, using a diverse suite of datasets for the northern Gulf of Mexico, we find that in the few days after a hurricane passage, decomposition of resuspended shelf sediments consumes up to a fifth of the DO added to the bottom of the water column during vertical mixing. Despite uncertainty in this value, we highlight the potential significance of this mechanism for DO dynamics. Overall, sediment resuspension likely occurs over all continental shelves affected by tropical cyclones, potentially impacting global cycles of marine DO and carbon.

Released November 06, 2018 14:51 EST

2019, Landscape and Urban Planning (182) 101-113

Jennifer Koch, Monica Dorning, Derek B. Van Berkel, Scott M. Beck, Georgina M Sanchez, Ashwin Shashidharan, Lindsey S. Smart, Qiang Zhang, Jordan W. Smith, Ross K. Meentemeyer

Population growth and unrestricted development policies are driving low-density urbanization and fragmentation of peri-urban landscapes across North America. While private individuals own most undeveloped land, little is known about how their decision-making processes shape landscape-scale patterns of urbanization over time. We introduce a hybrid agent-based modeling (ABM) – cellular automata (CA) modeling approach, developed for analyzing dynamic feedbacks between landowners’ decisions to sell their land for development, and resulting patterns of landscape fragmentation. Our modeling approach builds on existing conceptual frameworks in land systems modeling by integrating an ABM into an established grid-based land-change model – FUTURES. The decision-making process within the ABM involves landowner agents whose decision to sell their land to developers is a function of heterogeneous preferences and peer-influences (i.e., spatial neighborhood relationships). Simulating landowners’ decision to sell allows an operational link between the ABM and the CA module. To test our hybrid ABM-CA approach, we used empirical data for a rapidly growing region in North Carolina for parameterization. We conducted a sensitivity analysis focusing on the two most relevant parameters—spatial actor distribution and peer-influence intensity—and evaluated the dynamic behavior of the model simulations. The simulation results indicate different peer-influence intensities lead to variable landscape fragmentation patterns, suggesting patterns of spatial interaction among landowners indirectly affect landscape-scale patterns of urbanization and the fragmentation of undeveloped forest and farmland.

Released November 06, 2018 08:06 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Report 2018-5137

Joshua F. Valder, William G. Eldridge, Kyle W. Davis, Colton J. Medler, Karl R. Koth

The city of Aberdeen, in northeastern South Dakota, requires an expanded and sustainable supply of water to meet current and future demands. Conceptual and numerical models of the glacial aquifer system in the area north of Aberdeen were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the City of Aberdeen in 2012. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Aberdeen, completed a study to revise the original numerical groundwater-flow model using data through water year (WY) 2015 to aid the City of Aberdeen in their development of plans and strategies for a sustainable water supply and to increase understanding of the glacial aquifer system and groundwater-flow system near Aberdeen. The original model was revised to improve the fit between model-simulated values and observed (measured or estimated) data, provide greater insight into surface-water interactions, and improve the usefulness of the model for water-supply planning. The revised groundwater-flow model (hereafter referred to as the “revised model”) presented in this report supersedes the original model.

The purpose of this report is to describe a revised groundwater-flow model including data collection, model calibration, and model results for the glacial aquifer system including the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers north of Aberdeen, South Dakota, using updated hydrologic data through WY 2015. The original numerical model was revised in several ways. The model was modified by adding four new layers, which included a surficial layer, two intervening confining layers, and a shale bedrock layer. The revised model provides an improved understanding of the groundwater-flow system in comparison to the original model.

The principal aquifers of the model area include portions of the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers. The lithologic information used to define and describe the aquifers in the model area was unaltered; however, aquifer properties and boundary conditions were reviewed and updated using geological information reported by the South Dakota Department of Environmental and Natural Resources and information obtained from geophysical investigations for this study. The horizontal extent of the Elm, Middle James, and Deep James aquifers was unaltered from the original model. The thickness of the Deep James aquifer was modified based on interpretations from the geophysical investigations. In general, groundwater in the Elm aquifer flowed from northwest to southeast and locally towards rivers and streams. Similarly, in the Middle James and Deep James aquifers, groundwater also typically flowed southeast.

The revisions made to the original model include use of the following MODFLOW stress packages: Recharge, Evapotranspiration, Time-Variant Specified Head, Wells, Drains, and Stream Flow Routing, all of which were updated from the original model except for the Stream Flow Routing Package, which replaced the River Package used in the original model. Model calibration is the process of estimating model parameters to minimize the differences, or residuals, between observed data and simulated values; therefore, Parameter ESTimation (PEST) software was used to optimize model input parameters by matching model-simulated values to observed data. Calibration parameters included horizontal hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, and vertical streambed conductance for stream and drain cells. Multipliers were used to calibrate the recharge and evapotranspiration stresses. Evapotranspiration extinction depth also was adjusted during model calibration.

Comparisons to the original model are described to highlight the changes made in the revised model. In general, the revised model adequately simulates the natural system and compares favorably with observed hydrologic data. Simulated water levels were evaluated by comparing them to single water-level observations at selected well locations. The selected wells were the same wells used in the original model. The coefficient of determination value between simulated and observed water levels for the revised model was 0.89 and included simulated and observed values from October 1, 1974 (WY 1975), through September 30, 2015 (WY 2015). The coefficient of determination value for the original model was 0.94 and included simulated and observed values from October 1, 1974, through September 30, 2009. The difference may indicate that the original model could have been overfit to hydraulic head observations because base flow was not simulated. The additional data used in the revised model included some climatically wetter, more extreme periods, such as 2011, in which annual precipitation was 30.9 inches. Average annual precipitation for the original model timeframe, which included data from WYs 1975–2009, was 20.26 inches. Additional precipitation data for WYs 2010–15, included in the revised model timeframe, resulted in an average annual precipitation for WYs 1975–2015 in the model area of 20.6 inches. The larger variability in climate data coupled with the additional water-level data could explain the lower coefficient of determination for water levels in the revised model.

The revised model was used to calculate various groundwater-budget components for steady-state and transient conditions for WYs 1975–2015. The time-variant specified-head cells in the revised model had the largest change when compared to the original steady-state model for inflows and outflows. Comparing the transient budget components between the original and the revised models indicated that inflow from recharge and time-variant specified-head cells had the greatest effect on groundwater inflows, and outflow from storage had the greatest effect on groundwater outflows. The simulated potentiometric contours from the revised model were compared with (1) the observed (interpreted) potentiometric surface (layer 2) and the hydraulic head values (layers 4 and 6) and (2) the simulated contours from the original model. The simulated hydraulic gradients and general direction of groundwater flow in the Elm aquifer in the revised model generally matched the observed potentiometric contours, the simulated potentiometric contours from the original model, and general flow directions interpreted to be perpendicular to the contours. Minor discrepancies between simulated potentiometric contours from the revised model and the observed potentiometric contours may be due to the lack of observed data in the model area.

The revised model was designed to reduce the limitations of the original model. The revisions were validated by comparing the results of the original model with the revised model. A primary benefit of the revised model is the inclusion of the surficial deposits and the confining units as explicit layers in the model. The addition of the surficial layer was beneficial for three primary reasons: (1) more accurate representation of recharge from precipitation, (2) more accurate representation of groundwater evapotranspiration, and (3) more accurate representation of groundwater and surface-water interactions. The groundwater model is a numeric approximation of a complex physical hydrologic system, and the revised model data were interpolated in regions with sparse data. Additionally, model discretization included averaged and interpolated values for water use, withdrawal rates, and hydraulic conductivity. The revised model provides a useful estimate for hydraulic gradients, groundwater-flow directions, and aquifer response to groundwater withdrawals.

Released November 05, 2018 16:30 EST

2018, Scientific Investigations Map 3417

Kenzie J. Turner, Ren A. Thompson, Michael A. Cosca, Ralph R. Shroba, Christine F. Chan, Leah E. Morgan

The geologic map of the San Antonio Mountain area in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado is located along the west-central part of the San Luis Valley. The San Luis Valley is the geomorphic expression of the San Luis Basin, an extensional basin associated with the northern Rio Grande rift. Deposits within the map area record volcanic, sedimentary, and tectonic processes over the last ~33 million years. Oldest exposed deposits include Oligocene volcanic rocks associated with the southeast San Juan Mountains locus of volcanism within the Southern Rocky Mountains volcanic field. Overlying deposits of the Southern Rocky Mountains volcanic field are volcaniclastic sedimentary rocks interbedded with predominantly basaltic lava flows of Oligocene to Miocene age. Basalt to rhyolite volcanic rocks of the Pliocene to Pleistocene Taos Plateau volcanic field unconformably overlie Oligocene to Miocene volcanic and sedimentary deposits. Superposed on the Tertiary deposits are Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial and colluvial deposits.

North- to northwest-trending faults displace rocks within the map area. Magnitude of deformation is broadly correlative with age of the deposits inasmuch as Oligocene to Miocene rocks display a greater degree of fault displacement and east tilting than Pliocene volcanic rocks. Within the map area, faults displace Oligocene to Miocene deposits 10–30 meters with generally down-to-west offset, and the units dip eastward 3–7 degrees. Pliocene volcanic rocks exhibit shallower eastward dips inferred primarily from the slope of upper lava flow surfaces that dip eastward from 1–3 degrees and lava flows are generally displaced less than 5 meters.

Released November 05, 2018 16:00 EST

2018, Fact Sheet 2018-3055

Christopher J. Schenk, Tracey J. Mercier, Phuong A. Le, Marilyn E. Tennyson, Thomas M. Finn, Michael E. Brownfield, Kristen R. Marra, Stephanie B. Gaswirth, Heidi M. Leathers-Miller, Janet K. Pitman, Ronald M. Drake II

Using a geology-based assessment methodology, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated undiscovered, technically recoverable mean resources of 10.7 trillion cubic feet of potential coalbed gas resources in the Kutei and Barito Basin Provinces of Indonesia.

Released November 05, 2018 10:30 EST

2018, Open-File Report 2018-1150

M.C. Hopkins, M.J. Adams, P.E. Super, D.H. Olson, C.R. Hickman, P. English, L. Sprague, I.B. Maska, A.B. Pennaz, K.A. Ludwig

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a pathogenic chytrid fungus, is nonnative to the United States and poses a disease threat to vulnerable amphibian hosts. The Bsal fungus may lead to increases in threatened, endangered, and sensitive status listings at State, Tribal, and Federal levels, resulting in financial costs associated with implementing the Endangered Species Act of 1973. The United States is a global biodiversity hotspot for salamanders, an order of amphibians that is particularly vulnerable to developing a disease called chytridiomycosis when exposed to Bsal. Published Bsal risk assessments for North America have suggested that salamanders within the Appalachian region of the United States are at a high risk. In May 2017, a workshop was facilitated by the Department of the Interior’s Strategic Sciences Group. During the workshop, a discussion-based incident-response exercise focused on a hypothetical Bsal disease outbreak in Appalachia was led by U.S. Geological Survey staff members. Participants included representatives of the Eastern Band of the Cherokee Indians, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Tennessee Wildlife Resources Agency, and U.S. Department of Agriculture’s U.S. Forest Service. Scenario building was used to brainstorm cascading consequences (social, economic, and ecological) of a Bsal disease outbreak in the Appalachian region. This report highlights the management and science actions that could be undertaken to ensure an effective, rapid response to a Bsal introduction into the United States.

Released November 05, 2018 09:12 EST

2018, PLoS ONE (13) 1-14

Paulo Marcos Gorresen, Kevin W. Brinck, Megan A. DeLisle, Kristina Montoya-Aiona, Corinna A. Pinzari, Frank Bonaccorso

Multi-state occupancy modeling can often improve assessments of habitat use and site quality when animal activity or behavior data are available. We examine the use of the approach for evaluating foraging habitat suitability of the endangered Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) from classifications of site occupancy based on flight activity levels and feeding behavior. In addition, we used data from separate visual and auditory sources, namely thermal videography and acoustic (echolocation) detectors, jointly deployed at sample sites to compare the effectiveness of each method in the context of occupancy modeling. Video-derived observations demonstrated higher and more accurate estimates of the prevalence of high bat flight activity and feeding events than acoustic sampling methods. Elevated levels of acoustic activity by Hawaiian hoary bats were found to be related primarily to beetle biomass in this study. The approach may have a variety of applications in bat research, including inference about species-resource relationships, habitat quality and the extent to which species intensively use areas for activities such as foraging.

Released November 05, 2018 08:56 EST

2018, Environmental Research Letters

Sara Vicca, Benjamin Stocker, Sasha C. Reed, William R. Wieder, Michael Bahn, Philip A. Fay, Ivan Janssens, Hans Lambers, Josep Penuelas, Shilong Piao, Karin Rebel, Jordi Sardans, Bjarni D. Sigurdsson, Kevin Van Sundert, Ying-Ping Wang, Sonke Zaehle, Philippe Ciais

A wide range of research shows that nutrient availability strongly influences terrestrial carbon (C) cycling and shapes ecosystem responses to environmental changes and hence terrestrial feedbacks to climate. Nonetheless, our understanding of nutrient controls remains far from complete and poorly quantified, at least partly due to a lack of informative, comparable, and accessible datasets at regional-to-global scales. A growing research infrastructure of multi-site networks are providing valuable data on C fluxes and stocks and are monitoring their responses to global environmental change and measuring responses to experimental treatments. These networks thus provide an opportunity for improving our understanding of C-nutrient cycle interactions and our ability to model them. However, coherent information on how nutrient cycling interacts with observed C cycle patterns is still generally lacking. Here, we argue that complementing available C-cycle measurements from monitoring and experimental sites with data characterizing nutrient availability will greatly enhance their power and will improve our capacity to forecast future trajectories of terrestrial C cycling and climate. Therefore, we propose a set of complementary measurements that are relatively easy to conduct routinely at any site or experiment and that, in combination with C cycle observations, can provide a robust characterization of the effects of nutrient availability across sites. In addition, we discuss the power of different observable variables for informing the formulation of models and constraining their predictions. Most widely available measurements of nutrient availability often do not align well with current modelling needs. This highlights the importance to foster the interaction between the empirical and modelling communities for setting future research priorities.

Released November 05, 2018 08:36 EST

2018, Frontiers in Microbiology (9) 1-17

Blaire Steven, Jayne Belnap, Cheryl R. Kuske

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are microbial communities that are a feature of arid surface soils worldwide. In drylands where precipitation is pulsed and ephemeral, the ability of biocrust microbiota to rapidly initiate metabolic activity is critical to their survival. Community gene expression was compared after a short duration (1 hour) wetting pulse in both intact and soils disturbed by chronic foot trampling. Across the metatranscriptomes the majority of transcripts were cyanobacterial in origin, suggesting that cyanobacteria accounted for the bulk of the transcriptionally active cells. Chronic trampling substantially altered the functional profile of the metatranscriptomes, specifically resulting in a significant decrease in transcripts for nitrogen fixation. Soil depth (biocrust and below crust) was a relatively small factor in differentiating the metatranscriptomes, suggesting that the metabolically active bacteria were similar between shallow soil horizons. The dry samples were consistently enriched for hydrogenase genes, indicating that molecular hydrogen may serve as an energy source for the desiccated soil communities. The water pulse was associated with a restructuring of the metatranscriptome, particularly for the biocrusts. Biocrusts increased transcripts for photosynthesis and carbon fixation, suggesting a rapid resuscitation upon wetting. In contrast, the trampled surface soils showed a much smaller response to wetting, indicating that trampling altered the metabolic response of the community. Finally, several biogeochemical cycling genes in carbon and nitrogen cycling were assessed for their change in abundance due to wetting in the biocrusts. Different transcripts encoding the same gene product did not show a consensus response, with some more abundant in dry or wet biocrusts, highlighting the challenges in relating transcript abundance to biogeochemical cycling rates. These observations demonstrate that metatranscriptome sequencing was able to distinguish alterations in the function of arid soil microbial communities at two varying temporal scales, a long-term ecosystems disturbance through foot trampling, and a short term wetting pulse. Thus, community metatranscriptomes have the potential to inform studies on the response and resilience of biocrusts to various environmental perturbations.