Welcome to the
2015 Technical Panel on Assumptions and Methods
Public Information Page
Members of the Panel
Panel Charter issued by the Social Security Advisory Board
Meeting schedule:
Thursday and Friday, May 7-8, 2015
Friday, June 19, 2015
Meeting information
December 12, 2014 Meeting held at SSAB, Washington, DC
3. Accuracy of past projections
4. Replacement rates
(b) OACT Actuarial Note 155: Replacement Rates for Retirees: What Makes Sense for Planning and Evaluation?, July 2014 (this is the note released ion response to the dropping of replacement rates in the 2014 Trustees Report )
5. Mortality
January 16, 2015 meeting, held at NBER, Cambridge, MA
- Agenda
- Meeting handouts
- Information from the Office of the Chief Actuary on labor force particpation projections
- LFPR model variables
- Decomposition of changes 1 (short range)
- Decomposition of change 2 (long range)
- Presentation slides:
- Katharine Abraham "Notes on labor force trends and projections"
- Claudia Goldin "Notes on the female labor force"
- John Campbell "Long run prospects for real interest rates"
- Jim Stock "The Slowdown in GDP Growth"
February 13, 2015 meeting, Washington , DC
- Agenda
- Meeting Handouts (posted on day of meeting)
- Fertility: Ron Rindfuss presentation slides on fertility assumptions
- Mortality Sam Gutterman Presentation slides on mortaltiy assumptions and methods
- OACT Differential mortality
- OACT Mortality improvement
- Disability
- OACT presentation slides
- Jeff Liebman presentation slides
- David Autor presentation slides
March 13, 2015 meeting, Washington , DC
- Agenda
- Meeting Handouts (posted on day of meeting)
- Immigration assumptions and methods
- OACT presentation slides
- Michael Teitelbaum presentation slides
- Presentation of Uncertainty
- OACT presentation slides
- Joe Silvestri presentation slides
May 7 & 8, 2015 meeting, Washington , DC
- Agenda
- SLIDES: Gary King-projection accuracy
- SLIDES: Diamond- & Brown Inflation and Interest rates
- SLIDES: Brown & Gutterman-Infinite Horizon
- SLIDES: Sam Preston -Mortality projections (not all slides in deck are part of presentation)
- SLIDES: OACT-Projections of Life Expectancy at 65 1982-2014
- SLIDES: Brown & Diamond-Replacement Rates
- SLIDES: Abraham & Goldin-Labor Force Particpation
- SLIDES: Abraham-Unemployment
- SLIDES: Silvestri-Presentation of Uncertainty
- SLIDES: Autor-Taxable Share
- SLIDES: Gutterman-Mortaltiy differentials by income and education
June 19, 2015 meeting, Washington , DC
- Agenda