Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

FY 2019 U.S. Exports Forecast Up $500 Million from FY 2018 to $144.5 Billion; Imports at $126.5 Billion

U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2019 are projected to be $500 million up from FY 2018 estimates

  • Fiscal 2019 agricultural exports are projected at $144.5 billion, up $500 million from the revised forecast for fiscal 2018. This increase is primarily due to higher exports of wheat and horticultural products, which offset expected declines in oilseeds, livestock, and dairy product exports.
  • Wheat exports in fiscal 2019 are forecast up $1.4 billion from the previous year to $7.1 billion as a result of higher volumes and reduced competition. Overall grains and feeds exports are forecast at $33.1 billion, up $1.5 billion from the revised fiscal 2018 forecast.
  • Horticultural exports are forecast up $400 million to $35.3 billion in fiscal 2019, with higher export volumes of whole and processed tree nuts and slightly higher unit values for fresh fruits and vegetables.
  • Oilseeds and products are projected down $1.4 billion in fiscal 2019; soybean exports are forecast to fall $800 million to $21.0 billion as both volumes and unit values decline, in large part due to weakening demand from China.
  • Exports of livestock, dairy, and poultry products are expected to be to be down $300 million in 2019, driven by weaker shipment values for beef, pork, and dairy.
  • The cotton forecast value is unchanged from fiscal 2018 to 2019 at $6.9 billion, as lower volume offsets higher unit values.
  • For fiscal 2018, the forecast of $144.0 billion is an increase of $1.5 billion from the previous forecast in May, largely due to higher corn, cotton, and soybean meal exports.

U.S. agricultural imports forecast at $126.5 in FY 2019, up $2.0 billion from FY 2018 estimates

  • The forecast for U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal 2019 was $2.0 billion higher than the fiscal 2018 estimate, due to increases in expected imports of the two highest value commodity groups, horticultural products and sugar and tropical products.
  • Horticultural product imports are expected to reach a new record of $61.7 billion in fiscal year 2019, $1.4 billion above fiscal year 2018 forecasts.  Continued growth of fresh fruit imports is expected, resulting in a $200 million increase above fiscal year 2018 imports.  Wine and beer shipments are both expected to be $200 million above 2018 projections, at $6.6 billion and $5.5 billion respectively, due to greater volumes. 
  • U.S. imports of sugar and tropical products are forecast to be worth $23.6 billion in fiscal year 2019, a $500 million upward adjustment from the projected fiscal year 2018 forecast.  There is an expected increase of $300 million in cocoa imports from fiscal 2018 to 2019 because of increased unit values.  Increased volumes of coffee imports are expected, resulting in a $200 million rise from the fiscal year 2018 projection. 
  • Fiscal 2019 livestock, dairy, and poultry products import value is forecast at $17.2 billion, unchanged from the previous year. Imports of beef are up $100 million on marginal growth in both volumes and unit values, while imports of pork are unchanged.  Imports of dairy products are expected to drop by $100 million as domestic demand for imported cheese and butterfat is expected to decline. 
  • In fiscal year 2019, grain and feed imports are expected to remain the same as the 2018 projection, though the distribution of products is expected to change.  Specifically, there are expected to be a $100 million increase in processed grain products and a reduction of $100 million in bulk grain products, as volumes of coarse grain and wheat imports are expected to decrease in response to a larger domestic crop. 
  • Oilseed and product imports are increased by $100 million in fiscal 2019 due to a $300 million increase in vegetable oil imports that is more than offset by reduced oilseed imports. In fiscal 2019, vegetable oil imports are expected to rise because of increased volumes of rapeseed and olive oil. 
  • U.S. agricultural imports in fiscal year 2018 are expected to exceed the previous forecast by $3.0 billion, largely due to $2.1 billion in stronger sales of horticultural imports.  However, there were also increases in the forecasts for livestock and meats, dairy products, and grains and feed, as well as oilseed and products.

U.S. agricultural trade surplus is forecast at $18.0 billion in FY 2019 and $19.5 billion in FY 2018

Canada is expected to be the top destination market for U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2019; China falls to fifth place behind Mexico, the EU, and Japan

  • The forecast for exports to China in fiscal 2019 is $12.0 billion, $7.0 billion below the revised fiscal 2018 estimate. Demand for soybeans is expected to be sharply lower due to retaliatory tariffs, which also curb demand for other products, including sorghum, pork and products, and dairy products.
  • Japan is forecast at $12.4 billion, up $400 million from fiscal 2018, primarily due to expected higher tree nut, wheat, and soybean sales. Exports to South Korea are projected to increase $500 million to $7.9 billion on strong demand for soybeans, corn, and wheat.
  • Exports to Southeast Asia are forecast up in fiscal 2019 by a collective $2.0 billion to $15.2 billion, largely due to increases in soybean and soybean meal sales to the region, particularly to Vietnam and Indonesia. Exports to South Asia are forecast up $400 million to $4.4 billion as a result of strong demand for cotton and soybeans in Pakistan and Bangladesh. 
  • In fiscal 2019, Canada is forecast up $300 million to $21.5 billion, largely due to higher sales of fresh fruit and vegetables and soybean meal. Mexico is also forecast up $300 million, reaching $19.7 billion, on expectations of increased U.S. wheat and soybean exports.
  • Exports to South America are up $400 million in fiscal 2019 to $6.8 billion, primarily due to higher soybean sales to Colombia.   
  • Exports to the EU are forecast at $13.4 billion, up $1.0 billion from fiscal 2018 estimates, on the strength of continued strong demand for soybeans, soybean meal, and tree nuts.
  • In fiscal 2019, exports to Africa are forecast up $900 million to $5.4 billion. Egypt accounts for $600 million of the increase, as demand for soybeans and corn is expected to continue to be robust. Exports to Tunisia are forecast up $200 million on strong prospects for soybeans and corn.
  • Exports to the Middle East are projected to decline by $100 million in fiscal 2019 to $6.0 billion, as reductions in Turkey from trade tensions and the depreciation of the lira is partially offset by higher soybean exports to Israel.
  • In fiscal 2018, exports are lowered $2.6 billion to China from the last projection on reduced shipments of soybeans, hides and skins, wheat, and soybean oil.  However, exports to other countries and regions were revised upward from the previous report. Exports to Southeast Asia are up $1.2 billion, largely on the strong pace of soybean and soybean meal shipments. The forecast for Africa is increased a collective $700 million, mainly as a result of surging sales of soybeans and corn to Egypt.  South Asia is raised $500 million as a result of strong cotton sales to Pakistan and Bangladesh, along with higher soybean exports to Pakistan.  The forecast for South America is raised a collective $400 million due to higher-than-expected corn and soybean meal shipments to Colombia and greater sales of soybeans, meal, and oil to Peru.

In FY 2019, Mexico is predicted to be the top U.S. agricultural supplier, with the EU moving into second place

    • In fiscal 2019, U.S. regional imports from the Western Hemisphere are expected to increase $800 million from the previous projected total, reaching $69.8 billion. 
    • Imports from Mexico are expected to grow $200 million due to continued growth in shipments of horticultural products such as fresh vegetables and malt beer.
    • Imports from South America are forecast up $400 million from the projected 2018 total. Imports from Chile and Peru are expected to be higher by $100 million each, due to larger volumes of fresh fruit sales during off-season months.  Imports from Brazil and Colombia are also each expected to increase by $100 million above 2018 projections due to higher coffee sales. 
    •  In fiscal year 2019, imports from Canada are expected to grow by $100 million due to increased shipments of rapeseed oil.  However, the growth of U.S. imports from Canada is slow in comparison to that of the EU, dropping Canada to the third-largest supplier of agricultural goods to the United States.
    • Fiscal 2019 imports from the EU are projected to increase by $500 million over the 2018 projection, with the EU member states collectively expected to become the second-largest supplier to the United States in that year.  This reflects the EU’s continued strength in supplying horticultural products, such as wine, olive oil, and essential oils, to the United States. 
    • Imports from Africa are expected to be $200 million larger than the fiscal year 2018 forecast of $2.8 billion, due to higher expected unit values of cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast in 2019. 
    • In fiscal 2019, imports from Asia are expected to increase $100 million from the 2018 projection, as increases in shipments from Indonesia and East Asia more than offset a projected decrease of $200 million in shipments from Singapore. 
    • The $3.0 billion increase in the projection for fiscal 2018 is largely due to upward revisions in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, and Southeast Asia. In fiscal year 2018, regional imports from the Western Hemisphere are projected to increase $900 million from the previous forecast.  Mexico’s projected sales total is adjusted upward $500 million to $25.2 billion, as processed grains and horticultural products are expected to be larger than previously expected.  Imports from South America are raised $400 million from the previous forecast, mostly due to strong sales of fresh fruit and vegetables as well as fruit juices.  The primary reason for the $1.2 billion increase in the 2018 forecast for Southeast Asia was a sharp rise in prepared beverage imports from Singapore starting this spring. Fiscal year 2018 imports from the EU are revised up by $800 million from the previous forecast, due to continued strength in sales of horticultural goods and processed grain products.