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News for 25 June 2004

global change news - New Version of Premier Global Climate Model Released
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo., has unveiled a powerful new version of a supercomputer-based system to model Earth's climate and to project global temperature rise in coming decades. Scientists will contribute results to the next assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international research body that advises policymakers on the likely impacts of climate change. The system, known as the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), indicates in a preliminary finding that global temperatures may rise more than the previous version had projected if societies continue to emit large quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. NCAR developed the model in collaboration with researchers at universities and laboratories across the country, with funding from NSF as well as the Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It is releasing the model results and the underlying computer codes to atmospheric researchers and other users worldwide.

"The release of CCSM3 marks a significant milestone in development of climate models," said Jay Fein, director of NSF's climate dynamics program. "The investment by the NSF, the Department of Energy and the scientific community is yielding new insight into the complexities of the Earth system and the likely responses of our planet to natural and anthropogenic influences."

CCSM3 shows global temperatures could rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) in a hypothetical scenario in which atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are suddenly doubled. That is significantly more than the 2 degree Celsius (3.6 degree Fahrenheit) increase that had been indicated by the preceding version of the model. William Collins, an NCAR scientist who oversaw the development of CCSM3, says researchers have yet to pin down exactly what is making the model more sensitive to an increased level of carbon dioxide. But he says the model overall is significantly more accurate than its predecessor. "This model makes substantial improvements in simulating atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial processes," Collins says. "It has done remarkably well in reproducing the climate of the last century, and we're now ready to begin using it to study the climate of the next century."

National Science Foundation (NSF). Press release available here.

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global change research - NASA Data Shows Deforestation Affects Climate in the Amazon
NASA satellite data are giving scientists insight into how large-scale deforestation in the Amazon Basin in South America is affecting regional climate. Researchers found during the Amazon dry season last August, there was a distinct pattern of higher rainfall and warmer temperatures over deforested regions. Researchers analyzed multiple years of data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). They also used data from the Department of Defense Special Sensor Microwave Imager and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. The study appeared in a recent issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate. Lead authors, Andrew Negri and Robert Adler, are research meteorologists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, Md. Other authors include Liming Xu, formerly of the University of Arizona, Tucson, and Jason Surratt, North Carolina State University, Raleigh. "In deforested areas, the land heats up faster and reaches a higher temperature, leading to localized upward motions that enhance the formation of clouds and ultimately produce more rainfall," Negri said.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Press release available here.

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global change news
Abrupt Climate Change: New Research Supports Hypothesis that Ocean Currents Redistributed Heat During Rapid Warming and Cooling
A paper published this week in the journal Science supports the hypothesis that heat transfer by ocean currents--rather than global heating or cooling--may have been responsible for the global temperature patterns associated with the abrupt climate changes seen in the North Atlantic during the past 80,000 years. Authored by the University of Bremen's Frank Lamy and colleagues, the paper provides new evidence that Southern Hemisphere climate may not have changed in step with Northern Hemisphere climate. Though these new measurements of ocean surface temperature off Chile are consistent with information from Antarctic ice core samples, they still contradict measurements made on land in the Southern Hemisphere--suggesting additional research will be needed to resolve the issue. Scientists have found evidence of rapid and dramatic climate change that took place in a matter of decades during cool periods of the last 80,000 years in the North Atlantic. Knowing whether climate changes took place simultaneously in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is vital to understanding the mechanism involved--and assessing whether similar abrupt climate change could be a threat today.

Georgia Institute of Technology. Press release available here.

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global change news
NOAA Serves the Nation by Improving the Understanding of Climate Change
There has been a great deal of attention given to the important topic of global climate change recently. This, however, is not a new topic for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA is leading the path in gaining a better understanding of how our planet is changing, how quickly it is happening and what this will mean for its inhabitants. How is the Earth's climate changing? The short answer is that no one is certain. We are certain, however, that climate change cannot happen in days or even years. With every day and every new data point, NOAA researchers come closer to revealing answers to this central question and many others. "NOAA employees are working tirelessly to ensure our nation and the world has the best information available to deal with the issue of climate change," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The NOAA paleoclimatology program--which studies past climates--has found that climate has, in the past, changed quickly. It can occur in a matter of decades rather than centuries or millennia."

"Given the potential social and economic impacts of changing climate, there is a pressing need to increase knowledge of the mechanics of global, as well as regional, climate change, and develop the ability to predict abrupt and gradual climate change events. Even gradual changes will affect resource distribution and even how and where people live. NOAA investments in high speed computers, improved climate modeling and extensive Earth observation systems enable its scientists and forecasters to gather and synthesize information so that the public can be better informed and prepared for climate events, whether it be a seasonal shift such as El Nino/La Nina or a potential long term trend," said Lautenbacher. NOAA Paleoclimatology provides the data and information needed to understand the climate of the past, to assess the current and potential future climate in the context of natural climate variability. Located within the NOAA Climatic Data Center, the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, in Boulder, Colo., is the central source of paleoclimatic data for researchers around the globe.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Press release available here.

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global change news
Water Quality in the Great Salt Lake Region Affected by Land Use
Water samples collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in areas surrounding the Great Salt Lake in parts of Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming generally meet existing guidelines for drinking water and the protection of aquatic life, although water quality in some specific areas have elevated concentrations of pesticides, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nutrients, chloride, and elements such as arsenic and lead, according to the results of a 5-year study of water quality by the USGS. This study provides a large dataset to area water managers that can serve as a baseline of water-quality conditions because components are being monitored for trends over time. Water quality and biological conditions are generally better in streams that drain forests and rangeland (undeveloped areas) than in streams that drain agricultural and urban areas, said Susan Thiros, a USGS hydrologist and project leader. In developed areas, including those affected by mining, study results indicate elevated concentrations of pesticides, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nutrients, chloride, and trace elements such as arsenic and lead.

U. S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Press release available here.

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