Although there are always a few independent or small party candidates who opt to run in any U.S. presidential election, the only real contenders, at least since the mid-20th century, are the Democrat and Republican nominees. For the 2004 election, the nominees are the incumbent President George W. Bush, Republi-can, and Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry, Democrat.
George W. Bush
After a presidential race in 2000 in which he garnered only three more Electoral College votes than Al Gore, his opponent, George W. Bush was sworn in as the 43rd President of the United States on January 20, 2001. He is the son of former U.S. President George H. Bush, attended Yale University, and was in the oil business before being elected governor of Texas. The most shattering hostile event on United States soil after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 occurred during Bush's first year in office, when terrorists attacked the New York World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. Events that transpired since then, including the passage and implementation of the Patriot Act and the war in Iraq have made his presidency controversial at home and abroad, yet he maintains an approval rating in the high 40 percent range, according to recent polls. Vice President Dick Cheney is his running mate.
John F. Kerry
Son of a diplomat and U.S. Senator from Massachusetts since 1984, John Kerry has spent a life in politics. After graduating from Yale and active service in the U.S. Navy, he received a law degree from Boston College, became an assistant district attorney and started a law practice. He was lieutenant governor of Massachusetts before being elected to the U.S. Senate, where he is serving his fourth consecutive term. He is on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Kerry's candidacy was winnowed from a field of nine Democratic challengers during Democratic primary elections and caucuses last year. One of these rivals, John Edwards, is now on the ticket as his vice presidential running mate. Right now Kerry and Edwards are stumping around America, introducing themselves and the Democratic Party platform to voters. The candidates are working hard to win over an almost evenly divided electorate.
It's in the Swing
"Swing states" are those that are likely to swing the election one way or another, and are where the candidates will campaign hard. In these states the contest may be close or uncertain. Especially crucial are states with a large number of Electoral College votes, like California, that has 55. In the 2000 election, Florida, with 25 electoral votes, was vital to success. Bush won the state with a narrow margin of 537 votes. With two more electoral votes in 2004, the result of redistricting, Florida remains an important state to win. Eleven other states could go either way. Missouri, while only possessing 11 electoral votes, could be called the prophetic swing state. It has voted for every successful candidate in the 20th century, with the exception of Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956.
Finally, a note about the Electoral College: this system dates back to the founding of the United States and consists of 538 electors. Electoral votes are apportioned to each state based upon the combined number of federal senators and representatives allotted to the state, which are, in turn, based upon the state's population. That is why a candidate may win more popular votes yet still lose the election, as happened with Al Gore in 2000. He won the popular vote by a small margin of 543,895 votes, but Bush got Florida, an electoral vote-heavy state. The magic number that elects the president is 270. An analogy might be drawn to the 273 seats required in the Indian Parliament for a party to form a government. Due to redistricting in the states after the recent census, some states have gained electoral votes while others lost. Because the number of seats in Congress is fixed, representation is reapportioned when population changes warrant it. Most states affected this time are swing states, making the contest all the more tense.
This year, as in the 2000 election, Ralph Nader entered the race, much to the consternation of many Democrats, who feel that his 2.74 percent of the vote helped to skew a very close election result and gave George W. Bush an advantage that got him into the White House. Nader's support has dwindled significantly, however. Bush and Kerry are the ones to watch. -L.T.