U.S. Secretary of Education Rod Paige released the following statement in response to a new study on the No Child Left Behind Act:

"The study by the group Policy Analysis for California Education (PACE) is deeply flawed. Its analysis is riddled with assumptions, rough approximations, and inaccuracies. In fact, the numbers PACE selected show that test scores are up in 14 of the 15 states they analyzed."

"Their methodology is highly questionable, and seems to be, sadly, politically motivated. For example, even though they say that they used data from 15 of the largest states, in fact only nine are the largest in terms of enrollment. The remaining six are ranked 16th, 18th, 19th, 21st, 22nd and 31st, obviously raising questions about the selection criterion. PACE also failed to uniformly compare the same grade across states.

"The authors also have redefined "proficiency" to their own liking in several states (such as Florida and Minnesota), imposing their own conceptions of what it means to be a proficient reader," Paige noted.

A group of 12 distinguished education researchers and academics from Harvard, Stanford, Northeastern, the University of Illinois at Chicago and other institutions and organizations have also analyzed the PACE study and have come to the same conclusion – that it is "misleading at best and outrageous at worst."

Paige added, "The PACE authors would like readers to conclude that No Child Left Behind has failed -- this on the basis of their flawed study, from one-third of the nation's states, without even examining math achievement or student achievement in upper elementary, middle school or high school."

A state-by-state analysis shows that the PACE conclusions are wrong for 10 of the 15 states analyzed:

California:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that California's achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a four-point increase in the state average from 2002 to 2004 (a different test was given in 2001).

Illinois:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that Illinois's achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a three-point increase in the state average from 2001 to 2004.

Iowa:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that Iowa's achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a one-point increase in the state average from 2002 to 2004 (no results are presented for 2001).

Massachusetts:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that Massachusetts's achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a two-point increase in the state average from 2001 to 2004.

Missouri:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that Missouri's reading achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a three-point increase in the state average from 2001 to 2004.

New York:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that New York's reading achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a three-point increase in the state average from 2001 to 2004.

Tennessee:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that Tennessee's reading achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a four-point increase in the state average from 2001 to 2003 (no results are presented for 2004).

Texas:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that Texas's reading achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a six-point increase in the state average from 2001 to 2003 (no results are presented for 2004).

Virginia:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that Virginia's reading achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a seven-point increase in the state average from 2001 to 2003 (no results are presented for 2004).

Wisconsin:
CLAIM: PACE press release concludes that Wisconsin's reading achievement levels "remained unchanged or declined."

FACT: PACE's own numbers show a 10-point increase in the state average from 2001 to 2004.

Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington:

These are four States that PACE correctly identified as showing gains. In fact, the gains were large.

Florida:
PACE DATA: Thirty-four percent of fourth-grade students were at levels 4 and 5 in reading in 2004.

FACT: The percentage of third-graders scoring at or above grade level (which Florida defines as reaching levels 3, 4 and 5) in reading increased three points over last year, to 66 percent; and the percentage of fourth-graders scoring at or above grade level increased ten points over last year, to 70 percent.

Michigan:
PACE DATA: Seventy-nine percent of fourth-grade students were scoring at grade level in reading in 2004.

FACT: The fourth-grade math scores for African-American students increased by 10 percentage points (43-53 percent met or exceeded state standards) over last year, while the scores for white students increased by six percentage points (73-79 percent). Eighth-grade math scores improved 13 percentage points (21-34 percent) for African-American students, compared to 11 percent (60-71 percent) for white students.

Minnesota:
PACE DATA: Fifty-nine percent of third-graders were at levels 4 and 5 in reading in 2004.

FACT: The percentage of third-graders scoring at or above grade level (which Minnesota defines as reaching levels 3, 4, or 5) in reading increased six percentage points from 2001, to 73 percent.

Washington:
PACE DATA: Seventy-four percent of fourth-graders were at grade level in reading in 2004.

FACT: The percentage of fourth graders at or above grade level has increased by eight points in reading since 2001 (to 74 percent) and by 17 points in math since 2001 (to 60 percent).

Other States with Positive Results
(that were not included in the PACE study)

Arkansas:
FACT: The percentage of students in grades four, six and eight reaching proficiency in reading/language arts increased seven, 14 and 10 percentage points respectively in 2004.

Colorado:
FACT: Major racial and ethnic groups have seen large increases in the percentage of students scoring at proficient and advanced levels in elementary reading between 2001 and 2004. At grade four, black and Native American students have seen a six-percentage point increase between 2002 and 2004 and Asian and Pacific Islanders a nine-percentage point increase. At grade five, Hispanic students scoring at proficient or advanced levels in reading have risen 11 percentage points between 2001 and 2004; black students nine percentage points; Asian and Pacific Islanders 10 percentage points; and Native Americans six percentage points.

Connecticut:
FACT: The percentage of tenth-grade students scoring at or above proficient increased in all subjects (reading, math, writing, and science) over last year.

Delaware:
FACT: In third-grade reading, 82 percent of the students who took the state test met or exceeded the standard, a three-percentage point increase over 2003. Fifth-grade reading performance climbed to 85 percent, a seven-percentage point increase from last year.

Georgia:
FACT: In 2002, there was a 13-point difference between the number of African-American third-graders meeting or exceeding state standards in reading compared to their white classmates; in 2004, that gap narrowed to only eight points. Hispanic students narrowed the gap by moving four points closer to their white classmates.

Hawaii:
FACT: The percentage of third-grade students scoring at or above proficient in reading rose to 47 percent, up from 42 percent in 2003 – an increase of five points. Additionally, the percentage of fifth-grade students scoring at or above proficient in reading rose to 49 percent in 2004, up from 41 percent in 2003 – an increase of eight points.

Indiana:
FACT: Based on a new assessment in 2003, 73% of Indiana third-graders were proficient in reading, while 67 percent were proficient in math.

Idaho:
FACT: From 2003 to 2004, fourth-grade students increased their achievement levels in reading, language arts, and mathematics. Specifically, reading achievement increased by seven points, language arts achievement increased by nine points, and math achievement increased by six points (2002 data are not available on the same scale).

Illinois:
FACT: In grade three reading, the achievement gap continued to close between white and African-American students, from 41.2 points last year to 38 points this year, as well as between white and Hispanic students, from 27 points last year to 21 points this year. The achievement gap continues to close in reading in grade five and in math in grades three and five.

Kansas:
FACT: The percentage of fifth-grade students scoring at or above proficient in reading rose from 63 percent in 2002 to 68.7 percent in 2003 (a 5.7 percentage point increase). The increases for Hispanic students were even greater--an 11.6 percentage point increase.

Maryland:
FACT: The percentage of students scoring at or above proficient in third-grade reading rose from 59 percent in 2003 to 71 percent in 2004 – an increase of 12 points. The increases for African-American third-graders were even larger. The percentage of students scoring in the proficient range for grade eight math rose from 40 percent in 2003 to 46 percent in 2004 – a six-point increase.

Mississippi:
FACT: Student achievement in reading increased between 2003 and 2004 in each of grades two through eight.

New Hampshire:
FACT: In grade three, student proficiency in reading increased by two percentage points from 2001 to 2004; student proficiency in mathematics increased by 11 points from 2001 to 2004.

New Mexico:
FACT: In grade four, student proficiency in math increased by five percentage points, and reading proficiency increased by four percentage points over 2003. In grade eight, reading proficiency increased by six percentage points and math proficiency increased by three percentage points.

North Carolina:
FACT: The percentage of elementary and middle school students performing at or above grade level in 2004 in reading and math increased over the 2003 level. Minority students continued to close the achievement gap. And the number of schools making Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) increased over last year, even when controlling for changes the state made in its accountability plan.

North Dakota:
FACT: Across the state, reading and mathematics achievement each increased by four points from 2001 to 2004.

Ohio:
FACT: Since 2001, fourth-graders have improved in mathematics by a total of six points (65.8 percent proficient in 2004), and by fifteen points in reading (70.8 percent proficient in reading). Fourth-graders showed improvement in science (5.5 percentage points) and reading (4.5 percentage points) over last year. Sixth-graders made strong gains in mathematics, improving by 12.8 percentage points.

Oklahoma:
FACT: The percentage of fifth- and eighth-grade students scoring at grade level or above increased over last year in both math and reading. Grade-five reading increased by two percentage points, and grade-five math increased by six percentage points. Grade-eight reading increased by three percentage points, and grade-eight mathematics increased by four percentage points.

Oregon:
FACT: Oregon third-graders have made consistent gains in mathematics since the passage of NCLB. In 2001, only 75 percent of third graders were at grade level; in 2004, that number had increased to 82 percent -- a seven-point increase.

Pennsylvania:
FACT: Fifth- and eighth-grade students made significant gains in both reading and math. The percentage of fifth-graders proficient in reading increased by 4.7 points, and the percentage proficient in math increased by 5.5 points. The percentage of fifth-grade students proficient in mathematics increased by nine points between 2001 and 2004. Similarly, 56 percent were proficient in reading in 2001, while 63 percent were proficient in 2004 – an increase of seven points.

South Carolina:
FACT: Among elementary school students in reading/language arts, 86 percent of third-graders reached grade-level standards in 2004, up from 82 percent in 2003; 81 percent of fourth graders met standards in 2004, up from 76 percent in 2003; and 77 percent of fifth-graders met standards in 2004, up from 68 percent in 2003. Gains for all racial and ethnic groups and for economically disadvantaged students have been even greater. For example, in fifth-grade reading/language arts, African-American students reaching grade-level standards increased 13 percentage points between 2003 and 2004, while economically disadvantaged students increased 12 percentage points.

South Dakota:
FACT: On the Stanford 10 (given in both 2003 and 2004), ,third- and fourth-grade students improved their achievement rates in both reading and mathematics. For example, third-grade students went from 54 percent proficient in 2003 to 61 percent proficient in 2004 – a seven-point increase. In math, fourth-grade students went from 66 percent proficient to 70 percent proficient – a four-point increase. On the new assessment given for the first time in 2004, 71 percent of all South Dakota students were proficient or advanced in reading; 59 percent were proficient or advanced in mathematics.

Vermont:
FACT: From 2001 to 2003, fourth-grade students showed across-the-board increases on the multi-part reading assessments. These students showed a three-point increase on reading analysis, a three-point increase on reading, a six-point increase on writing conventions, and a five-point increase on writing effectiveness. (Statewide results are not available yet for 2004).

West Virginia:
FACT: This year, West Virginia gave a new standards-based assessment. On that test, 67 percent of all students were at grade-level in math, and 77 percent were proficient on the reading assessments. Over the two previous years before that, West Virginia showed a one-point gain on its norm-referenced assessment.

Wyoming:
FACT: Student achievement in reading and math increased over last year for both fourth- and eighth-graders. This year, 47 percent of fourth-graders scored at or above proficient in reading, compared to 44 percent last year; and 39 percent scored at or above proficient in math, compared to 37 percent last year. This represents a three-point increase in reading, and a two-point increase in math.

NOTE: A copy of the researchers' letter can be found at http://hoodev.stanford.edu/oct04/paceresponse.htm

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