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NIST GCR 03-859 Economic Impact of the Advanced Technology Program's HDTV Joint Venture

NIST GCR 03-859
Economic Impact of the Advanced Technology Program's HDTV Joint Venture

William J. White, Ph.D.
Alan O’Connor, B.A.

Research Triangle Institute
Research Triangle Park, NC 27709

January 2004

Click here to view entire report in PDF format.

Table of Contents

Abstract
Acknowledgments
Executive Summary
Abbreviations and Acronyms
1 Introduction
  1.1 Government’s Role in Supporting Research and Development
  1.2 Evaluating the Effectiveness of ATP Projects
  1.3 ATP’s Investment in Digital Video
  1.4 The High-Definition Television Joint Venture
  1.5 Results of the JV and RTI’s Case Study Evaluation Approach
  1.6 Organization of the Report
2 Overview of the HDTV Joint Venture Project and Technology Outcomes
  2.1 The HDTV Joint Venture Project
    2.1.1 Rationale for ATP Involvement
    2.1.2 HDTV JV Project Research and Development Goals
    2.1.3 Organization and Mechanics of the HDTV JV
  2.2 Technology Outcomes
    2.2.1 Sarnoff Corporation
    2.2.2 IBM
    2.2.3 Sun Microsystems
    2.2.4 Thales Broadcast & Media
    2.2.5 MCI
    2.2.6 Other JV Participants
  2.3 HDTV JV Project Effectiveness
  2.4 Quantifiable JV Technology Outcomes
3 Analysis Framework for Evaluating the HDTV Joint Venture Project
  3.1 Public versus Private Benefits and Costs
  3.2 Counterfactual Scenario to the HDTV JV Project
    3.2.1 Counterfactual to AgileVision
    3.2.2 Counterfactual to Digital Adaptive Predistortion (DAP)
    3.2.3 Summary of Technical and Economic Impact Metrics
  3.3 Methodology for Estimation of Economic Benefits and Costs
    3.3.1 Measuring the Benefits from Technological Change
    3.3.2 Approach to Measuring Benefits from the HDTV Joint Venture Project
    3.3.3 Estimating Measures of Performance
    3.3.4 Primary and Secondary Data Collection
4 Economic Analysis Results and Measures of Performance
  4.1 Economic Benefits Analysis of AgileVision
    4.1.1 AgileVision Economic Benefit per Public Television Licensee
    4.1.2 Public Television Licensee Population and Digital Broadcasting Conversion Time Frame
    4.1.3 Estimated Economic Benefit of AgileVision for Public Television Licensees
  4.2 Economic Benefits Analysis of DAP
    4.2.1 DAP Economic Benefit per Digital Television Station
    4.2.2 Digital Television Station Population and Digital Broadcasting Conversion Time Frame
    4.2.3 Estimated Economic Benefit of DAP for Digital Television Stations
  4.3 Time Series of Project Costs
  4.4 Measures of Performance
    4.4.1 Time Series of Net Benefits and Measures of Economic Performance
    4.4.2 Realized and Total Net Benefits
    4.4.3 Measures of Performance
  4.5 Economic Analysis Summary
5 ATP HDTV JV Project Technologies: Looking Forward
  5.1 Markets Beyond DTV Broadcasting
    5.1.1 AgileVision and Commercial Television Broadcasting
    5.1.2 AgileVision and Datacasting
  5.2 Qualitative Review of the HDTV JV Project
References
About the Advanced Technology Program
About the Authors

Figures

Figure 3-1 Mansfield’s Approach for Evaluating Benefits of Technological Change
Figure 3-2 Simplified Equilibrium Diagram of Digital Video Television Equipment Market

Tables

Table ES-1 JV Technology Outcomes and Current State of Commercialization
Table ES-2 Time Series of Costs, Benefits and Net Benefits, 1995-2008, and Measures of Economic Return

Table 2-1 JV Project Studio Component Objectives
Table 2-2 JV Members and Years of Participation
Table 2-3 Technology Outcomes and Current State of Commercialization
Table 3-1 Example AgileVision and Non-AgileVision Studio Conversion Cost and Equipment Comparison
Table 3-2 Summary of Technical and Economic Impact Metrics
Table 4-1 AgileVision Adoption Benefit per Public Television Licensee (Control Point)
Table 4-2 Current, Scheduled, and Potential AgileVision-Adopting PublicTelevision Licensees and Stations as of February 7, 2003
Table 4-3 Estimated Conversion Time Frame for Public Television Licensees and AgileVision Market Penetration
Table 4-4 Total Estimated Public Television Licensee AgileVision Adoption Benefit, through 2013
Table 4-5 Per-Transmitter Benefit, Digital Adaptive Precorrection
Table 4-6 Estimated Digital Transmitter Benefit Population and Station Conversion Time Frame
Table 4-7 Total Estimated Economic Benefit, Digital Adaptive Precorrection, through 2013
Table 4-8 HDTV Project Costs, 1995–2000
Table 4-9 Time Series Net Benefits, 1995–2013
Table 4-10 Quantified JV Economic Benefits (Realized, Potential, and Total), Costs, and Net Benefits
Table 4-11 Measures of Performance

Date created: July 12, 2004
Last updated: July 19, 2004



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