NIST GCR 03-844 Low-Cost Manufacturing Process Technology for Amorphous Silicon Detector Panels: Applications in Digital Mammography and Radiography Prospective Economic Case Study for an ATP-Funded Project Prepared for Economic Assessment Office Advanced Technology Program National Institute of Standards and Technology Gaithersburg, MD 20899-4710 By Thomas M. Pelsoci, Ph.D. Delta Research Co., Chicago, IL tpelsoci@deltaresearchco.com Grant SB1341-01-W-1292 February 2003 View PDF version of report.

Contents

Abstract

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary

• DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-COST PROCESS
• MARKET ANALYSIS
• ECONOMIC IMPACT
• CONCLUSIONS

1. Introduction

• CASE STUDY OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE

2. Development of Low-Cost Process Technology

• HOW DOES IT WORK?
• ATP PROJECT HISTORY
• MAJOR INNOVATIONS
• LOW-COST PROCESS IMPLEMENTATION

3. Digital Mammography 

• BREAST CANCER AND EARLY DETECTION 
• BREAST CANCER TRENDS 
• CONVENTIONAL MAMMOGRAPHY 
• COMPLEMENTARY BREAST SCREENING MODALITIES 
• SCREENING MAMMOGRAPHY TRENDS
• LIMITATIONS OF SCREENING MAMMOGRAPHY
• DIGITAL MAMMOGRAPHY
• CLINICAL TRIALS: DIGITAL MAMMOGRAPHY
• COMPUTER-AIDED DETECTION
• POTENTIAL BENEFITS FROM DIGITAL MAMMOGRAPHY 

4. Digital Chest Radiography and Other Applications 

• DIGITAL CHEST RADIOGRAPHY
• DIGITAL CARDIOLOGY
• DIGITAL IMAGING FOR INDUSTRY AND HOMELAND SECURITY

5. Market Analysis

• MAMMOGRAPHY EQUIPMENT MARKET
• DIGITAL MAMMOGRAPHY MARKET
• CHEST RADIOGRAPHY MARKET
• MARKET SUMMARY

6. Economic Analysis

• METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH
• ATP AND INDUSTRIAL PARTNER INVESTMENTS
• BASE-CASE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
• STEP-OUT SCENARIO ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
• ESTIMATED PRIVATE BENEFITS TO ATP INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS
• QUALITATIVE BENEFITS

7. Conclusions

Glossary

References

Related Reading

• AMORPHOUS SILICON PANEL FABRICATION
• MEDICAL IMAGING
• MEDICAL IMAGING APPLICATIONS
• TELEMEDICINE
• NONMEDICAL IMAGING

Appendix A. Low-Cost Manufacturing Technology for the Fabrication of Amorphous Silicon Detectors

• MANUFACTURING PROCESS
• ACCOMPLISHMENTS OF ATP-FUNDED PROJECT
• COST REDUCTION FROM LOW-COST PROCESS 0
• REMAINING TECHNICAL ISSUES

Appendix B. Base-Case Calculations

Appendix C. Step-Out Scenario Calculations

Inside Back Cover

• About ATP
• About the Author

TABLES

Table 1. Benefits from ATP’s Investment in the Low-Cost Manufacturing Process Through Additional Digital Mammography and Radiography Units

Table 2. Incidence of Breast Cancer for American Women

Table 3. Projected U.S. Sales of FFDM and Senographe 2000D Units Without ATP-Funded Low-Cost Process: Counterfactual Case

Table 4. Projected U.S. Sales of Revolution XR/d Units Without ATP-Funded Low-Cost Process: Counterfactual Case

Table 5. Projected Unit Sales Enabled by ATP-Funded Low-Cost Process

Table 6. Cash Flows from Additional Unit Sales, Assuming Implementation of ATP-Funded Low-Cost Process in 2004 ($ Millions, in 2002 Dollars): Base Case

Table 7. Cash Flows from Additional Unit Sales, Assuming Implementation of ATP-Funded Low-Cost Process in 2004 ($ Millions, in 2002 Dollars): Step-Out Scenario

Table 8. Estimated Revenues to ATP Parners from Future Implementation of ATP-Funded Low-Cost Process ($ Million, in 2002 Dollars)

Table 9. Percentage of Cancer Victims Diagnosed at Various Stages, Screened Versus Unscreened Populations

APPENDICES TABLES

Table A1. Projected Equipment Utilization for a-Si Detector Fabrication

Table B1. Projected Additional Senographe 2000D Unit Sales: Base Case

Table B2. Projected Additional Revolution XR/d Unit Sales: Base Case

Table B3. Productivity Gains from Senographe 2000D: Base Case

Table B4. Productivity Gains from Revolution XR/d Unit Sales: Base Case

Table B5. Savings from Avoided False Positives with Senographe 2000D: Base Case

Table B6. Patient Savings from Avoided Time Off and Travel with Senographe 2000D: Base Case

Table B7. Summary Cash Flow Benefits with Senographe 2000D and Revolution XR/d: Base Case

Table C1. Projected Additional Senographe 2000D Unit Sales: Step-Out Scenario

Table C2. Projected Additional Revolution XR/d Unit Sales: Step-Out Scenario

Table C3. Productivity Gains from Senographe 2000D Units: Step Out Scenario

Table C4. Productivity Gains from Revolution XR/d Units: Step-Out

Table C5. Savings from Avoided False Positives with Senographe 2000D: Step-Out Scenario

Table C6. Patient Savings from Avoided Time Off and Travel with Senographe 2000D: Step-Out Scenario

Table C7. Summary Cash Flow Benefits with Senographe 2000D and Revolution XR/d: Step-Out Scenario

FIGURES

Figure 1. Principles of Amorphous Silicon Detector

Figure 2. Percentage of Women (Aged 40+) Who Had Mammograms Within Past 2 Years, by Race and Ethnicity

Figure 3. Direct Digital Mammography

Figure 4. Flow of Benefits from the ATP-Funded Low-Cost Process

Figure 5. Net Present Value Component Analysis: Base Case

APPENDICES FIGURES

Figure A1. Principles of Amorphous Silicon Detector

Figure A2. Thin Film Processing: Depositing, Patterning, and Etching of Multiple Layers

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Date created: April 25 2003
Last updated: May 22, 2003