NIST GCR 03-859
Economic Impact of the Advanced Technology Program's HDTV Joint Venture

5. ATP HDTV JV Technologies: Looking Forward

In addition to examining the quantitative impacts of the Advanced Technology Program’s (ATP’s) high-definition television (HDTV) joint venture (JV) project, this analysis also compiled information about the future directions of JV-developed technologies. Not all project outcomes were commercialized, but nearly all have had some sort of impact on the future direction of research and development (R&D) in their respective functional areas. Indeed, even those technologies that were commercialized and quantified in this report are but first-generation iterations; these technologies are evolving and may be applicable in additional markets longterm. This section serves two purposes: to revisit and encapsulate the ATP-funded HDTV technologies in a broader context and to present known details on their future application.

5.1 MARKETS BEYOND DTV BROADCASTING

This study includes an evaluation of HDTV project technologies’ potential for markets beyond digital television (DTV) broadcasting, especially corporate communications and satellite and cable television providers. In general, JV members thought that the market scope for these technologies was limited to the terrestrial television broadcasting industry. Sarnoff noted that most cable providers mainly distribute analog signals over digital networks. Satellite is broadcasting digital signals, but the equipment was up and running before the ATP project started. Some HDTV-project technologies, particularly IBM’s and Sun’s research, would be applicable in any market where routing and query of video data was needed.

The technologies with the most realistic set of future benefits are those commercialized through AgileVision. Earlier sections of this report described the impact the AgileVision system has had and will have on the costs of DTV broadcasting for public television (PTV) stations. Indeed, in terms of relative value, the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) member stations, and therefore their constituencies, may be the single-largest beneficiary of the ATPfunded HDTV project. Looking forward, AgileVision has two other prospective areas of benefit: commercial television broadcasting and datacasting.

5.1.1 AgileVision and Commercial Television Broadcasting

AgileVision’s multicasting capability, in other words its ability to simultaneously broadcast more than one channel using the same amount of allotted spectrum, and commercial television broadcaster’s search for new revenue sources may increase AgileVision’s viability in the commercial television station market. Heretofore, commercial broadcasters were opposed to multicasting on their allotted DTV signal because it would fractionalize their audience, meaning that fewer people would be watching their one channel. This would in turn have adverse implications for advertising revenues. However, a business case is developing for conditional access (pay-to-view) television in over-the-air broadcasting.

Cable system operators often sell an additional tier of cable television service called “digital cable” that delivers a larger number of channels to consumers for an additional fee per customer per month. Over-the-air broadcasters are beginning to see the business case for providing similar services to viewers using their DTV signal allotment. AgileVision’s multicasting capabilities are, therefore, attractive as broadcasters could deliver free content on a portion of the signal and then provide conditional access channels on the remaining portion of their signal.

5.1.2 AgileVision and Datacasting

Datacasting refers to the broadcast of data streams by a DTV transmitter. The phrase comes from the combination of data and broadcasting. Datacasting is the process of taking computer data stored in large files, packaging them, and sending them over the air to the public at large or subscribers (WHYY, 2003).

According to Idaho Public Television, “Television tuner cards can be plugged into a computer, a set-top box attached to an analog TV, or a DTV set to capture the digital signal. Once received, the equipment will separate the data bits from the television programming bits and either display the data on screen or save it to a hard drive for later use” (2003). Datacasting service complements the services provided by Internet-service providers.

In addition to serving homes and businesses, DTV stations may also devise methods for delivery of data to educational institutions, public services, and hospitals, among other potential end-users hypothesized by stations interviewed for this analysis. Public DTV stations may also form for-profit subsidiaries to datacast everything from stock quotes to games to local businesses and residences. PBS has formed such a subsidiary called PBS National Datacast and plans a variety of either subscription-based or advertising-supported services (PBS, 2003). Datacasting offers digital PTV stations the opportunity of additional revenue sources.

Several datacasting initiatives are currently underway. For example, WHYY in Philadelphia offers educational datacasts through partnerships with local education authorities, including those for early childhood education, workforce development, and higher education (WHYY, 2003).

Datacasting is an enormous opportunity for over-the-air broadcasters because they can supplement their revenues by leasing spectrum for delivery of data to consumers. AgileVision itself is not a datacasting tool, but it provides a platform from which datacasting can be accomplished. AgileVision is designed to complement especially-designed datacasting servers and other equipment. Adopting broadcasters can integrate supplemental datacasting equipment with the system and commence operations. One of the stations interviewed indicated that AgileVision will lower future datacasting equipment costs but could not enumerate an estimate.

Although the JV did not investigate datacasting specifically⁽¹⁾ , the commercial embodiment of several of its technical objectives provides a datacasting platform. As AgileVision would not have otherwise existed, the future benefits of datacasting through AgileVision can be attributed to the JV as well.

5.2 QUALITATIVE REVIEW OF THE HDTV JV PROJECT

A significant outcome of the project is that the knowledge generated during its course, evident in conference proceedings, journal articles, and patents, had an impact on the way R&D entities approached digital studio equipment and the theory underlying how such a studio should be organized (see Section 2.2). During and after the project, members prepared reports and articles for the technical literature as well as participated in standards-setting organizations and conferences devoted to television broadcasting. JV members contacted for this study mentioned anecdotally the comments they have received from their peers about the quality of their research and its relevance to contemporary DTV challenges. Indeed, JV members pointed to product offerings from nonmembers, technical roadmap articles, and other evidence that included kernels of their research.

This knowledge likely would not have been generated had it not been for ATP’s involvement. JV members unanimously agree that the JV would not have formed and the project would not have occurred in the absence of ATP involvement. ATP’s funding support permitted JV project participants to embark on research activities that would otherwise not have occurred or would have occurred at some unknown point well into the future. In essence, members credit the program for making the R&D outcomes possible.

The JV set for itself seven technical goals, all of which were successful, though only five of the accomplishments have been incorporated into commercial products. Those that have not found full-scale commercial outlets still have had an impact. IBM and Sun both indicated that their R&D efforts are molding approaches to new product development efforts.

It is likely that the project will have additional benefits that have yet to occur. Those benefits would come in the form of new product offerings with capabilities greater than and/or costs less than existing or future technologies. Those product offerings may be from a JV member (e.g., IBM or Sun Microsystems), or a non-JV member that applied the concepts employed in the JV and/or the published results of IBM and Sun’s research in its own efforts.

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1. Datacasting was not in the technical scope of the HDTV project, however, a datacasting demonstration was undertaken at WNJN, Trenton, NJ that used the project’s prototype equipment in conjunction with third-party datacasting equipment.

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Date created: July 12, 2004
Last updated: July 13, 2004