NIST GCR 04-863
Composites Manufacturing Technologies: Applications in Automotive, Petroleum, and Civil Infrastructure Industries

Economic Study of a Cluster of ATP-Funded Projects

Thomas M. Pelsoci, Ph.D.
Delta Research Co., Chicago, IL
tpelsoci@deltaresearchco.com
Grant SB1341-02-W-1015

June 2004

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Contents

Abstract
Acknowledgements
Executive Summary
Abbreviations and Acronyms

1. Introduction

2. Analytical Framework and Methodology

3. Vapor-Grown Carbon Fiber Case Study

4. Composite Production Riser Case Study

5. Additional Projects in the Cluster Study

6. Benefit-to-Cost Analysis for Cluster of Projects

7. Conclusions

References

Appendices

About the Advanced Technology Program
About the Author

TABLES

Table ES-1: Summary of Benefits from ATP’s Investment in a Cluster of Five Composites Manufacturing Projects
Table 1: Market Projections for VGCF Utilization in North American Automotive Production (Numbers of Vehicles in Thousands)
Table 2: Cash Flows and Performance Metrics from VGCF Use in the Automotive Industry ($ Millions, in 2003 Dollars): Base Case
Table 3: Performance Metrics from VGCF Use in the Automotive Industry ($ Millions, in 2003 Dollars): Step-Out Scenario
Table 4: Projected Gulf of Mexico Tension Leg and SPAR Platforms with Composite Production Risers
Table 5: Expected Number of Production Wells Completed with CPR on Existing Tension Leg Platforms
Table 6: Expected Number of Wells Completed with Composite Production Risers on New TLP and SPAR Platforms
Table 7: Cash Flows and Performance Metrics from CPR Deployment in Gulf of Mexico ($ Millions, in 2003 Dollars): Base Case
Table 8: Performance Metrics from CPR Deployment in Gulf of Mexico: Step-Out Scenario
Table 9: Combined Cash Flows of ATP Investments and Expected Benefits from VGCF and CPR Deployment ($ Millions, in 2003 Dollars): Base Cas
Table 10: Base Case Performance Metrics from Combined VGCF and CPR Cash Flows against ATP Cluster and ATP Program Investments (in 2003 Dollars)
Table 11: Step-Out Scenario Performance Metrics from Combined VGCF and CPR Cash Flows against ATP Cluster and ATP Program Investments (in 2003 Dollars)

APPENDICES TABLES

Table A3-1: Typical Properties of Some Engineering Materials

FIGURES

Figure 1: Flow of Benefits from ATP-Funded Composites Manufacturing Projects
Figure 2: Benefit Allocation from ATP-Funded Composites Manufacturing Projects
Figure 3: Vapor-Grown Carbon Fiber Manufacturing Process
Figure 4: Flow of Benefits from the ATP-Funded VGCF Project
Figure 5: Wound-in Metallic End Fittings with Traplock Composite-to-Metal Interface
Figure 6: Recent History of Deepwater Developments
Figure 7: Deepwater Production Rates and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Deepwater Production in the Gulf of Mexico
Figure 8: Seven Types of Offshore Oil Production Platforms
Figure 9: Market Share of Tension Leg or SPAR Platforms in the Gulf of Mexico
Figure 10: Flow of Benefits from the ATP-Funded Composite Production Riser Technology
Figure 11: Public Benefits, Investments, and Performance Metrics for Cluster of Related ATP Projects and, by Extension, Program of ATP Projects
Figure 12: Net Present Value Component Analysis: Base Case

APPENDICES FIGURES

Figure A3-1: Continuous-Fiber versus Short-Fiber Composites

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Date created: July 14, 2004
Last updated: July 15, 2004