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NISTIR
6888
Technology Adoption Indicators Applied to the ATP
Flow-Control Machining Project
Hayden
Brown
Office of Applied Economics
Building and Fire Research Laboratory
Mark Ehlen
Infrastructure Surety Group
Sandia National Laboratories
May 2003
Prepared
for:
Economic Assessment Office
Advanced Technology Program
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Gaithersburg, MD 2089
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NISTIR 6888 in Adobe Reader.
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Cover
image: Processed cylinder head combustion chamber, courtesy of Extrude
Hone Corporation.
Table
of Contents
Abstract
Executive
Summary
Acknowledgements
Glossary
1.
Introduction
2.
Industry Characteristics Affecting Technology Adoption
3.
Selecting a Case Study Using Technology Adoption Indicators (TAIs)
4.
Case Study of the FCM Technology Applied to the Lawnmower Manufacturing
Industry
5.
Summary and Conclusions
References
List
of Appendices
Appendix A: EPA Phase 1 and Phase 2 Regulations
on Nonroad Nonhandheld Small Engines
Appendix
B: Patents Issued by SIC Code
Appendix C: Research Joint Ventures by SIC Code
Appendix D: REMI Forecast Detail
List
of Figures
Figure
1. The Structure-Conduct-Performance Model
Figure
2. Four-Firm Concentration Ratios of Home Lawn and Garden Equipment
and Aircraft Engines and Engine Parts
Figure 3. Eight-Firm Concentration Ratios
of Home Lawn and Garden Equipment and Aircraft Engines and Engine Parts
Figure 4. Herfindahl-Hirschman Indices
of Home Lawn and Garden Equipment and Aircraft Engines and Engine Parts
Figure 5. Lawnmower Industry CR4, 1990
to 2000
Figure 6. Lawnmower Industry CR8, 1990
to 2000
Figure 7. Lawnmower Industry HHI, 1990
to 2000
Figure 8. Farm/Garden Machinery and Aircraft
Patents Issued 1996 to 2000
Figure 9. Lawnmower-Related Patents Issued
1996–2001
Figure 10. Number of RJV Filings, Whole
and Fractional
Figure 11. Side-Valve and Overhead-Valve
Market Penetration, 1990 to 2000
Figure 12. Market A: Class I SV Costs
Figure 13. Market B: Class I OHV Costs
Figure 14. Market C: Class II SV Costs
Figure 15. Market D: Class II OHV Costs
Figure 16. Savings in GDP from Using
the FCM Technology Instead of the EPA-assumed Conventional Technology
to Meet Phase 2 Regulations, in Market Segments A and C
Figure 17. Savings in Personal Income
from Using the FCM Technology Instead of the EPA-assumed Conventional
Technology to Meet Phase 2 Regulations, in Market Segments A and C
Figure 18. Thousands of Patents Issued
(Whole Count) for 1996 to 2000, by SIC Code
Figure 19. Thousands of Patents Issued
(Fractional Count) for 1996 to 2000, by SIC Code
Figure 20. Research Joint Venture Filings
by SIC Code
Figure 21. Market A (Class I SV): Estimated
Reductions in GDP
Figure 22. Market A (Class I SV): Estimated
Reductions in Employment
Figure 23. Market A (Class I SV): Estimated
Reductions in Personal Income
Figure 24. Market C (Class II SV):
Estimated Reductions in GDP
Figure 25. Market C (Class II SV):
Estimated Reductions in Employment
Figure 26. Market C (Class II SV):
Estimated Reductions in Personal Income
List
of Tables
Table
1. Summary of Findings Using Broadly Defined TAIs
Table
2. Summary of Findings Using Narrowly Defined Data on Lawnmower Manufacturers
Table 3. Emissions Limits under Phase
2 EPA Regulations
Table 4. Unit Costs of Meeting Phase 2
Standards Using Conventional Technology, in 2002 Dollars
Table 5. Unit Costs of Meeting Phase 2
Standards Using FCM Technology, in 2002 Dollars
Table 6. Total Industry Cost of Meeting
Phase 2 Standards Using Conventional Technology Compared to FCM Technology
in Class I, in Thousands of 2002 Dollars
Table 7. Total Industry Cost of Meeting
Phase 2 Standards Using Conventional Technology Compared to FCM Technology
in Class II, in Thousands of 2002 Dollars
Table 8. Definitions of Engine Class
I and II
Table 9. Phase 2 (1999) Emissions Regulations
for Engine Class I
Table 10. Phase 2 (1999) Emissions Regulations
for Engine Class II
About
ATP
About the Authors
Date created: June
11, 2003
Last updated:
June 20, 2003
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