Answer: Almost
certainly not. Direct historical measurements of the intensity of the
geomagnetic field have been possible ever since Gauss invented the magnetometer
in the 1830’s. Since then the average intensity of the field at
the Earth’s surface has decreased by about ten percent. And we know,
from paleomagnetic records, that the intensity of the field does indeed
decrease, by as much as ninety percent, at the Earth’s surface during
a reversal. But those same paleomagnetic records also show that the field
intensity has often exhibited significant variation, with both decreases
and increases in intensity, without there always being a coincident reversal.
So, an intensity low does not necessarily mean that a reversal is about
to occur. Moreover, the recent decrease in intensity is not really that
dramatic of a departure from normality, and for all we know the field
may actually get stronger at some point in the not-so-distant future.
It's worth remarking that predicting the occurrence of a reversal based
upon a knowledge of the current state of the magnetic field is about as
easy as predicting the next bull market on Wall Street; you don’t
know it’s happening until it’s half over! |
