Obs errors - in array OEQ
Background errors - in array FGQ
As of October 2003.
C *** This file contains tables of observation errors and 12-h forecast
C errors for use in upper-air quality control and analysis routines.
C Early 1986 K. Brewster Original version
C 31 Dec 1986 S. Benjamin Updated to include both observation
C and forecast errors.
C 1 Sep 1987 S. Benjamin Subjectively reduced temp ob error
C from 1.0 to 0.7 deg C to force
C closer fit and reduced height
C ob errors by factor of 0.8 for
C same reason.
C 22 Dec 1989 S. Benjamin Changed RH* to condensation pressure.
C Also, added SAO obs errors
C 30 May 1990 S. Benjamin Added p to forecast errors, keeping
C same ratio to obs error as for temp.
C 04 Aug 2000 S. Weygandt Change PC errors to lnQ errors
C Units: heights (m), temp (deg C), condensation pressure (mb),
C winds (m/s)
C The forecast error data is entered for summer and winter season.
C REQUIREMENTS
C 1) ATIME, the analysis time be
C available in the routine into which it is included.
C 2) Also a dummy variable integer*4 julday must be declared.
C 3) 'CONFIG1' must also be included in the routine
C This version determines whether to use
C dynamic season: 30 Sept to May 15
C or convective season: 16 May to 29 Sept
C Dissect the date to determine julian day
C by pulling the third through the 5th characters off of atime
C
READ (ATIME(3:5),'(I3)') JULDAY
C Standard deviations for 12-h LFM verification
C from NMC Systems Evaluation Branch statistics.
C North American 110 station network used for verification
C These numbers are for forecast minus observation differences.
C /------------------------------
C FE sd = \/ [(fcst-ob) var - ob err var]
IF (JULDAY.GT.135 .AND. JULDAY.LT.273) THEN
C convective season
C July 1985 statistics ***********************
C Heights
FGQ(H_P,P850MB_P) = 15.0
FGQ(H_P,P700MB_P) = 16.8
FGQ(H_P,P500MB_P) = 21.0
FGQ(H_P,P400MB_P) = 25.2
FGQ(H_P,P300MB_P) = 30.2
FGQ(H_P,P250MB_P) = 32.7
FGQ(H_P,P200MB_P) = 35.8
FGQ(H_P,P150MB_P) = 39.0
C
C Temp
FGQ(T_P,P850MB_P) = 2.7
FGQ(T_P,P700MB_P) = 1.8
FGQ(T_P,P500MB_P) = 1.8
FGQ(T_P,P400MB_P) = 1.8
FGQ(T_P,P300MB_P) = 1.8
FGQ(T_P,P250MB_P) = 2.5
C FGQ(T_P,P200MB_P) = 1.8
FGQ(T_P,P200MB_P) = 3.0
C FGQ(T_P,P150MB_P) = 1.7
C increased to account for higher temp errors in stratosphere
C 28 May 96 - Stan B.
FGQ(T_P,P150MB_P) = 3.5
C
C Pressure
FGQ(P_P,P850MB_P) = 200.
FGQ(P_P,P700MB_P) = 180.
FGQ(P_P,P500MB_P) = 120.
FGQ(P_P,P400MB_P) = 130.
FGQ(P_P,P300MB_P) = 170.
FGQ(P_P,P250MB_P) = 190.
FGQ(P_P,P200MB_P) = 180.
FGQ(P_P,P150MB_P) = 170.
C
C To estimate standard deviation errors for condensation pressure,
C I took the RH* obs errors, figured that they were appropriate for
C a scale of 0.0-1.0, and equated them to a scale of condensation
C pressure deficit of 0-300 mb.
c-----SSW Aug 2000 change to reasonable values for lnQ
C ln Q (units: none)
FGQ(qv_P,P850MB_P) =0.50
FGQ(qv_P,P700MB_P) =0.50
FGQ(qv_P,P500MB_P) =0.50
FGQ(qv_P,P400MB_P) =0.50
FGQ(qv_P,p300MB_P) =0.60
FGQ(qv_P,P250MB_P) =0.70
FGQ(qv_P,P200MB_P) =0.70
FGQ(qv_P,P150MB_P) =0.70
C --- Set precipitable water forecast background error (mm)
do k=1,nzp_p
FGQ(pwob_P,k) = 5.0
end do
C
C Winds
FGQ(U_P,P850MB_P) = 3.3
FGQ(U_P,P700MB_P) = 4.0
FGQ(U_P,P500MB_P) = 4.5
FGQ(U_P,P400MB_P) = 4.5
FGQ(U_P,P300MB_P) = 4.8
FGQ(U_P,P250MB_P) = 5.4
FGQ(U_P,P200MB_P) = 4.5
FGQ(U_P,P150MB_P) = 3.7
FGQ(V_P,P850MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P850MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P700MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P700MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P500MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P500MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P400MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P400MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P300MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P300MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P250MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P250MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P200MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P200MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P150MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P150MB_P)
ELSE
C fall,winter,spring
C print *, ' Using dynamic season LFM error stats........'
C
C Standard deviations for LFM (fcst-ob) differences for 12h fcsts
C January 1985 statistics ***********************
C
C
FGQ(H_P,P850MB_P) = 21.6
C15.0
FGQ(H_P,P700MB_P) = 22.0
C16.8
FGQ(H_P,P500MB_P) = 23.3
C21.0
FGQ(H_P,P400MB_P) = 27.4
C25.2 Heights
FGQ(H_P,P300MB_P) = 31.6
C30.2
FGQ(H_P,P250MB_P) = 33.2
C32.7
FGQ(H_P,P200MB_P) = 35.8
C35.8
FGQ(H_P,P150MB_P) = 38.4
C39.0
C
FGQ(P_P,P850MB_P) = 200.
FGQ(P_P,P700MB_P) = 180.
FGQ(P_P,P500MB_P) = 120.
FGQ(P_P,P400MB_P) = 130.
C Pressure
FGQ(P_P,P300MB_P) = 170.
FGQ(P_P,P250MB_P) = 190.
FGQ(P_P,P200MB_P) = 180.
FGQ(P_P,P150MB_P) = 170.
FGQ(T_P,P850MB_P) = 2.7
C2.7
FGQ(T_P,P700MB_P) = 2.0
C1.8
FGQ(T_P,P500MB_P) = 2.0
C1.2
FGQ(T_P,P400MB_P) = 2.0
C1.3 Temp
FGQ(T_P,P300MB_P) = 2.4
C1.7
FGQ(T_P,P250MB_P) = 2.6
C1.9
FGQ(T_P,P200MB_P) = 3.0
C1.8
c FGQ(T_P,P150MB_P) = 2.4
C1.7
C increased to account for higher temp errors in stratosphere
C 28 May 96 - Stan B.
FGQ(T_P,P150MB_P) = 3.5
C
c-----SSW Aug 2000 change to reasonable vaules for lnQ
C ln Q (units: none)
FGQ(qv_P,P850MB_P) = 0.50
C 0.13
FGQ(qv_P,P700MB_P) = 0.50
C 0.14
FGQ(qv_P,P500MB_P) = 0.50
C 0.15
FGQ(qv_P,P400MB_P) = 0.50
C 0.15 RH*
FGQ(qv_P,P300MB_P) = 0.60
C 0.15
FGQ(qv_P,P250MB_P) = 0.70
C 0.15
FGQ(qv_P,P200MB_P) = 0.70
C 0.15
FGQ(qv_P,P150MB_P) = 0.70
C 0.15
C
C --- Set precipitable water forecast background error (mm)
do k=1,nzp_p
FGQ(pwob_P,k) = 5.0
end do
FGQ(U_P,P850MB_P) = 4.0
C 3.3
FGQ(U_P,P700MB_P) = 4.5
C 3.2
FGQ(U_P,P500MB_P) = 4.7
C 3.5
FGQ(U_P,P400MB_P) = 5.7
C 4.2 ! Winds
FGQ(U_P,P300MB_P) = 6.5
C 4.8
FGQ(U_P,P250MB_P) = 6.9
C 5.4
FGQ(U_P,P200MB_P) = 6.5
C 4.5
FGQ(U_P,P150MB_P) = 5.5
C 3.7
FGQ(V_P,P850MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P850MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P700MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P700MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P500MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P500MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P400MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P400MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P300MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P300MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P250MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P250MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P200MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P200MB_P)
FGQ(V_P,P150MB_P) = FGQ(U_P,P150MB_P)
ENDIF
Cseason determination
C THE OBSERVATIONAL ERRORS ARE ASSUMED TO BE INDEPENDENT OF THE SEASON
C Units: heights (m), temp (deg C), RH* (nd), winds (m/s)
C
C Set std. deviation of height and wind observation error.
C These figures
C (for RAOBs) are taken from Dey and Morone (1985, MWR).
C They are also used for the Regional OI at NMC.
C ---------------------------------------------------------------------
C-
C Heights
OEQ(H_P,P850MB_P,RAOB_P) = 8.0 * 0.8
OEQ(H_P,P700MB_P,RAOB_P) = 8.6 * 0.8
OEQ(H_P,P500MB_P,RAOB_P) = 12.1 * 0.8
OEQ(H_P,P400MB_P,RAOB_P) = 14.9 * 0.8
OEQ(H_P,P300MB_P,RAOB_P) = 18.8 * 0.8
OEQ(H_P,P250MB_P,RAOB_P) = 25.4 * 0.8
OEQ(H_P,P200MB_P,RAOB_P) = 27.7 * 0.8
OEQ(H_P,P150MB_P,RAOB_P) = 32.4 * 0.8
C
C *** WIND OBSERVATION ERRORS FOR RAOBS FROM DEY AND MORONE ARE
C AS FOLLOWS FOR MANDATORY LEVELS 850-150 /1.8,2.1,3.4,4.2,5.2
C 5.9,5.9,5.9/
C THE VALUES USED HERE ARE MUCH SMALLER AND ARE EQUAL TO
C 8% OF THE IMPLICIT FIRST GUESS WIND ERROR USING THE
C SOAR AND LFM HEIGHT ERRORS.
C --------------------------------------------------------------
C *** RAOBS
C Winds
OEQ(U_P,P850MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.83
OEQ(U_P,P700MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.87
OEQ(U_P,P500MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.92
OEQ(U_P,P400MB_P,RAOB_P) = 1.01
OEQ(U_P,P300MB_P,RAOB_P) = 1.15
OEQ(U_P,P250MB_P,RAOB_P) = 1.20
OEQ(U_P,P200MB_P,RAOB_P) = 1.24
OEQ(U_P,P150MB_P,RAOB_P) = 1.38
c-----SSW Aug 2000 change to reasonable vaules for lnQ
c-----SGB Oct 2000 revision - higher values, esp. aloft
C ln Q (units: none)
OEQ(QV_P,P850MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.10
OEQ(QV_P,P700MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.10
OEQ(QV_P,P500MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.10
OEQ(QV_P,P400MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.15
OEQ(QV_P,P300MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.15
OEQ(QV_P,P250MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.18
OEQ(QV_P,P200MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.18
OEQ(QV_P,P150MB_P,RAOB_P) = 0.18
C
DO 31415 K =1,NZP_P
OEQ(V_P,K,RAOB_P) = OEQ(U_P,K,RAOB_P)
OEQ(T_P,K,RAOB_P) = 0.4
C DEG C
C *** changed from 0.7 to 0.4 - 28 Oct 87 - Stan B.
C because of relatively poor fit to temp obs
OEQ(P_P,K,RAOB_P) = 50.
C mb
31415 CONTINUE
C *** PROFILER
DO 31416 K =1,NZP_P
OEQ(H_P,K,PROFILER_P) = OEQ(H_P,K,RAOB_P)
OEQ(T_P,K,PROFILER_P) = 0.8
C DEG C
c-----SSW Aug 2000 change to reasonable vaules for lnQ
C ln Q (units: none)
OEQ(qv_P,K,PROFILER_P) = 0.40
C
OEQ(U_P,K,PROFILER_P) = 1.0
C Profiler wind error
OEQ(V_P,K,PROFILER_P) = 1.0
OEQ(P_P,K,PROFILER_P) = 100.
C mb
C *** AIRCRAFT REPORTS
C --- When automated aircraft reports are received, they will
C have to be treated as a whole new data type by the MAPS
C system because of their different error characteristics.
C ----------------------------------------------------------
OEQ(H_P,K,PIREPS_P) = 50.0
C m
OEQ(T_P,K,PIREPS_P) = 1.0
C DEG C
c-----SSW Aug 2000 change to reasonable vaules for lnQ
C ln Q (units: none)
OEQ(qv_P,K,PIREPS_P) = 0.40
C
OEQ(U_P,K,PIREPS_P) = 1.5
OEQ(V_P,K,PIREPS_P) = 1.5
OEQ(P_P,K,PIREPS_P) = 100.
C mb
C *** SAO
OEQ(P_P,K,SAO_P) = 20.
OEQ(H_P,K,SAO_P) = 6.
OEQ(T_P,K,SAO_P) = 0.8
c-----SSW Aug 2000 change to reasonable vaules for lnQ
C ln Q (units: none)
OEQ(qv_P,K,SAO_P) =0.08
OEQ(U_P,K,SAO_P) = 0.5
OEQ(V_P,K,SAO_P) = 0.5
C *** Satellite
OEQ(T_P,K,SAT_P) = 2.0
C DEG C
c-----SSW Aug 2000 change to reasonable vaules for lnQ
C ln Q (units: none)
OEQ(qv_P,K,SAT_P) = 0.40
C
OEQ(H_P,K,SAT_P) =30.0
OEQ(U_P,K,SAT_P) = 2.0
OEQ(V_P,K,SAT_P) = 2.0
C m/s
C *** Precipitable water observation errors - mm
OEQ(pwob_P,k,SAT_P) = 3.0
OEQ(pwob_P,k,GPS_P) = 1.5
OEQ(pwob_P,k,RAOB_P) = 1.0
31416 CONTINUE