FORT > Product Library > Publications > Modeling Uncertainty
Modeling Uncertainty: Quicksand for Water Temperature Modeling
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Abstract
Uncertainty has been a hot topic relative to science generally, and modeling specifically. Modeling uncertainty comes in various forms: measured data, limited model domain, model parameter estimation, model structure, sensitivity to inputs, modelers themselves, and users of the results. This paper will address important components of uncertainty in modeling water temperatures, and discuss several areas that need attention as the modeling community grapples with how to incorporate uncertainty into modeling without getting stuck in the quicksand that prevents constructive contributions to policy making. The material, and in particular the references, are meant to supplement the presentation given at this conference.
Citation: Bartholow, J. 2003. Modeling uncertainty: quicksand for water temperature modeling. Hydrological Science and Technology 19: 221-232.
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