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An economic analysis of alternative fertility control and associated management techniques for three BLM wild horse herds
John Bartholow1
Executive Summary
Contemporary cost projections were computed for several
alternative strategies that could be used by BLM to manage three wild
horse populations. The alternatives included existing gather and selective
removal methods, combined with potential contraceptive applications of
varying duration and other potentially useful management techniques. Costs
were projected for a 20-year economic life using the Jenkins wild horse
population model and cost estimates from BLM that reflect state-by-state
per horse removal, adoption, long-term holding, and contraceptive application
expenses. Important findings include:
- Application of currently available 2-year contraceptives appears
capable of reducing variable operating costs for wild horse populations
by about 21% on average.
- Application of 3-year contraceptives, when fully tested and available,
may be capable of reducing variable operating costs by about 27% on
average.
- Combining contraceptives with modest changes to herd sex ratio (e.g.,
55-60% males) can trim existing costs by about 31%.
- All savings are predicted to increase when contraception is applied
in conjunction with the proposed removal policy that targets horses
age zero to four, instead of zero to five.
- Reductions in herd size result in greater predicted variation in annual
operating expenses for each herd, especially below about 200 animals,
but are always at least ±20%.
- Because the horse program’s variable operating costs only make up
about one half of the total program costs (which include fixed and sunk
costs), even with aggressive contraceptive management, total program
costs could only be reduced by about 17%. This would still save about
$7.7 million per year.
- None of the contraceptive options examined eliminated the need for
long-term holding facilities over the 20-year period simulated, but
the number of horses held may be reduced by about 23% with aggressive
contraceptive treatment.
- Cost estimates are most sensitive to adoption age and per day holding
costs.
- There are opportunities to improve both the population modeling software
and the modeling processes used in assembling Herd Management Area environmental
assessments.
Citation: Bartholow, J.M. 2004. An economic analysis of alternative fertility control and associated management techniques for three BLM wild horse herds. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Geological Survey. Open File Report 2004-1199. 33 p.
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