Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program

Understanding the Geographic Pathways of West Nile Virus,
Stephen Guptill, Eastern Region Geography (WV, NY)

The recent outbreaks of West Nile Virus in the northeastern United States highlight the deficiencies in our understanding of the complex geographies of vector-borne diseases. Research is needed to obtain a better understanding of bird migration as a mechanism of virus dispersal, vertebrate host/vector relationships and range, and the current and future geographic description of the West Nile Virus. This study proposes to used advanced techniques in ecological and spatial analysis to describe, model, and develop forecasting techniques for future outbreaks and to intensively study the various host systems of the disease process and the environments in which vector-host interactions occur. Geospatial databases will provide information on land cover, land use, soil characteristics, terrain, demographics, and socio-economic factors. Weather information (temperature, precipitation) will be obtained for the study sites as factors that may influence the abundance of reservoirs and vectors, locally, when combined with the land characterization data. Results from the survey studies will be used with modeling procedures to develop an integrated process model of the disease that can predict the presence and abundance of WNV for the region.