Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191048
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT TUE 19 OCT 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...
RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 
KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 66W-70W. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 15N10W 10N19W 10N36W 12N51W 10N64W. 
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF 
GUINEA BISSAU WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 11N-13N. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N 
BETWEEN 16W-23W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 14W-35W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E OVER THE GULF. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE GULF W OF 80W. THIS IS BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR TO 
THE GULF S OF 26N W OF 85W. THUS...FAIR SKIES WITH NO SHOWERS 
FOR THE ENTIRE GULF THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL/WESTERN ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONTINUES TO NARROW 
AND THE AXIS EXTENDS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W SW ALONG 25N68W 
ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W OVER E CUBA INTO THE N 
CARIBBEAN OVER JAMAICA TO NEAR 18N79W. THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY 
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W EXTENDING SW TO 24N67W 
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MACROS THE BAHAMAS TO 
NEAR 24N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N72W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING 
NE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N56W TO 31N47W. THIS 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PROVIDING TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE REGION S OF 17N W OF 70W TO INLAND 
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. CONVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AXIS AND THE TROUGH/FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 24N65W-28N57W AND WITHIN 75 
NM OF LINE 29N58W TO BEYOND 32N52W. 

EASTERN ATLANTIC...
WEAK DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE ATLC WITH THE DEEP 
LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES PRODUCING ALMOST ZONAL FLOW 
FROM 23N-30N E OF 40W. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE 
REGION OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 30N19W THEN DISSIPATES TO 
26N24W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 
30N21W TO BEYOND 32N18W. 

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
CUTOFF MID/UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N56W COVERING THE AREA FROM 5N-18N BETWEEN 46W-62W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LESSER ANTILLES 
FROM 14N-18N. REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 
MID/UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N33W AND COVERS THE REGION S OF 
22N E OF THE ABOVE LOW. AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 35W-47W.

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WALLACE