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Updated 19 August, 2004 |
Climate
Variability and Change USGCRP Program Element |
| USGCRP
Home
Focus Areas
Climate Variability & Change |
| Search |
|
Updated 19 August, 2004 |
Climate
Variability and Change USGCRP Program Element |
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Climate Variability and ChangeOverview
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Research on climate variability and change focuses on two overarching questions:
Addressing these questions requires recognition that the problems of climate variability and change cannot be cleanly separated, and that the success of understanding each will require improved understanding of both. For example, future changes in climate variability, for example a variation in the frequency and nature of EN SO events or the severity and duration of droughts, will depend partly on changes in global (and regional) mean conditions. Conversely, climate variations influence global and regional heat and moisture distributions, and hence can substantially alter the global and regional mean response of the climate system to either natural or anthropogenic forcing. Further, demands for improved climate information span a broad range of timescales, ranging from assessments of current conditions and seasonal forecasts of climate variability that support resource management decisions, to longer-term decadal to centennial-scale projections of climate change that help inform infrastructure planning and policy development. Current research activities on climate variability and change are directed toward: understanding and, to the extent possible, reducing uncertainties in climate model projections; improving climate predictions on seasonal-to-interannual timescales; improving capabilities to detect, attribute, and project longer-term climate changes; advancing understanding on the causes of past abrupt climate changes and the potential for future rapid changes; determining whether and how climate variations alter the frequencies, intensities, and locations of extreme events; and improving the development and communication of climate information to better the needs of the public and decisionmakers. over the past year, significant advances have been made in several of these areas. Some of the research highlights are summarized below.
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CCSP-supported
research on climate variability and change focuses on how climate elements
that are particularly important to human and natural systems—especially
temperature, precipitation, clouds, winds, and storminess—are
affected by changes in the Earth system. Specific objectives include
improved predictions of seasonal to decadal climate variations (such
as predictions of El Niño and La Niña events); improved
detection, attribution, and projections of longer-term changes in climate;
the potential for changes in extreme events at regional to local scales;
the possibility of abrupt climate change; and development of approaches
(including characterization of uncertainty) to inform national dialogue
and support public and private sector decisionmaking.
Climate variability and change can profoundly influence social and natural
environments throughout the world, with consequent impacts on natural
resources and industry that can be large and far-reaching. For example,
seasonal to interannual climate fluctuations strongly affect agriculture,
the abundance of water resources, and the demand for energy, while long-term
climate change may alter agricultural productivity, land and marine ecosystems,
and the goods and services that these ecosystems supply. Recent advances
in climate science are providing information for decisionmakers and resource
managers to better anticipate and plan for potential impacts of climate
variability and change. Further advances will serve the nation by providing
improved knowledge to enable more scientifically informed decisions across
a broad array of climate-sensitive sectors.
