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NOAA TAKES LEADING ROLE IN DEVELOPING SCIENTIFIC STRATEGY OF GULF OF MEXICO HYPOXIA There is growing local, regional, and national concern about the increasing size and persistence of summer low oxygen levels (hypoxia) found on the continental shelf off the coast of Louisiana in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Deteriorating water quality in the northern GOM, the associated increasing nutrient loadings exiting the river, and a perceived threat to nationally important fisheries and fish habitat are part of this concern. The size of the hypoxic area varies spatially but on average has grown since the 1960's. Waters over the adjacent continental shelf have responded with increased biological productivity, eutrophication, oxygen stress, and species population shifts. After the Great Mississippi Flood of 1993, the hypoxic zone increased from about 3,500 to 7,000 square miles, and thus becoming one of the largest and most persistent zones of hypoxia in the world. Input of nutrients has increased about threefold since the 1950's, with much of the increase occurring after 1968. The figure below depicts the size of the hypoxic zone in the summer of 1996. While questions remain concerning the exact causes and effects of GOM hypoxia, there is consensus that nutrient over-enrichment plays a major role. Much of this understanding has been provided through the COP's Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) program. NECOP established the role of Mississippi River watershed nutrients in the eutrophication of the northern continental shelf, in part through mapping and monitoring that area since 1990, and developing a mass-balance water quality model which was used to evaluate management strategies based on nutrient inputs, primary productivity, and dissolved oxygen. Because of this involvement, COP investigators have participated in numerous interagency technical meetings and workshops which have moved the discussion of a Federal response forward. Development of an overall Federal strategy and framework is in discussion, and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has requested that the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR) conduct a scientific assessment of the causes and consequences of Gulf of Mexico hypoxia. This effort will provide scientific guidance to policy being developed by an interagency group led by the EPA. For more information, contact COP's NECOP coordinator, John Wickham (jwickham@cop.noaa.gov) or for information on the CENR assessment, contact Mike Dowgiallo (mdowgiallo@cop.noaa.gov).
From the Director's Desk. . . Time lags between first discovery of research findings and their ultimate use in support of public policy are common. Scientists can shorten those delays by ensuring that their peer-reviewed results are well known to both the scientific and policy-making communities and to the general public. Increasing attention to the vast area of low oxygen (hypoxia) in bottom waters off coastal Louisiana, known locally as the "dead zone," illustrates the important role that scientific information and the investigators who developed it can play in informing public policy debates. As part of COP's NECOP study (page 1), public interest in hypoxia was heightened by the participation of project scientists in public fora and by publishing articles in both the scientific and popular literature. The persistence of these individuals in presenting results to the public, along with an important trigger mechanism -- the growth of the hypoxic zone following the "Great Mississippi River Flood of 1993" -- raised the issue to a National priority. Interestingly, it required both persistence over a number of years on the part of the scientists and a major focusing event to make this happen. Taken alone, it is unlikely that either component would have raised the issue to a National priority. Taken together, they spurred both the environmental and policy making communities into action. Current efforts by the White House Committee on Environment and Natural Resources to conduct a first-ever integrated assessment of the causes and consequences of Gulf hypoxia is a direct result of NECOP's scientific and public outreach efforts. This assessment will evaluate policy options within a multi-agency, intergovernmental strategy for reducing nitrogen loads to the Gulf. It is also important to note that NECOP's role was not serendipitous. As far back as 1987, COP investigators identified nutrient over enrichment of coastal waters as a major issue and, soon after, gathered together the best people to work on the problem in the Gulf of Mexico. Enough structure and resources were made available to ensure the study would be a meaningful contribution to understanding and assessing the problem, and its project scientists were encouraged to keep open the channels of communication with both policy makers and the public. Replication of these efforts for estuarine and coastal ecosystems elsewhere are making a difference in policies developed for these important systems.
 SEBSCC Begins Field Season in Icy Bering Sea
SEBSCC in February began an eight-month field season investigating the southeastern Bering Sea ecosystem. Using ships from the NOAA and UNOLS fleet, and cooperative cruises aboard Japanese research vessels, investigators will deploy ocean measuring equipment and collect samples linking the physical and biological environments. An important factor in springtime Bering Sea processes is the extent of the seasonal ice pack. In cold springs like 1995, ice covers much of the operating area on the continental shelf until mid-April. This winter began with extensive ice development, but recent southerly winds have slowed the advance, and 1997 is shaping up to be a normal ice season. Begun in 1996, SEBSCC is a five-year, multidisciplinary, regional ecosystem study. The southeast Bering Sea is a major ecosystem and economic resource, boasting an abundance of high latitude marine life and some of the busiest fishing ports in the nation. This ecosystem responds to changing environmental conditions through fluctuations in abundance of commercial fish and shellfish, sea birds and marine mammals. (continued on page 4) COP Project Coordinator Profile
Mike Dowgiallo serves as COPís coordinator for three coastal fisheries ecosystem projects: the South Atlantic Bight Recruitment Experiment; Bering Sea Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated Investigations, and a new regional ecosystem study, the Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity. He also represents the Coastal Ocean Office to NOAA-level teams for major program planning for the Build Sustainable Fisheries component of NOAA's annual strategic planning. Mike joined NOAAís National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service in 1980 where he helped develop NOAA's Global Ocean Data Inventory. He also served as Project Manager for a series of marine environmental assessments, and was NOAA's Gulf of Mexico Regional Coordinator for the Estuarine Programs Office in the Office of the Chief Scientist. His interest in science began in college working for the USDAís Agricultural Research Service at one of their research laboratories. He received a B.S. degree from St. Mary's College of Maryland in 1973, and an M.S. degree from the University of Puerto Rico in 1979, with research emphasis in marine parasitology. Mike is presently completing his studies for the Ph.D. in the Marine and Estuarine Environmental Sciences program at the University of Maryland, with his doctoral research on biological processes in deep and shallow water tropical marine environments. Mike lives in Bowie, Maryland where he raises his three daughters and enjoys eating blue crabs and being on the water as much as possible.
SEBSCC cont., To manage the economic resource, we must understand what processes perturb the ecosystem and be able to predict the response. In the Bering Sea ecosystem, the dominant fish is walleye pollock, a pelagic species that is commercially fished. Because of its prevalence, pollock constitutes an integral part of the region's food chain as both prey and predator. SEBSCC researchers are studying the ecosystem from the standpoint of pollock's central role. Research is focused on measuring physical forcing and the response of marine organisms, from phytoplankton to zooplankton, pollock, and other fish, seabirds, and mammals. Techniques include retrospective analyses, ecosystem monitoring, process studies, and modeling with an emphasis on developing annual indices of pollock juvenile abundance. Results relating to short-term forecast of pollock recruitment will be applied to stock assessments by NOAA's Alaska Fisheries Science Center to recommend "allowable biological catch" estimates to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council. Other project results pertaining to the availability of juvenile pollock to upper-food-chain predators will assist Council decisions regarding interactions between marine mammals and the fishery. The Council is incorporating ecosystem factors into its management decisions, and information provided by SEBSCC will expedite this effort. The project's focus on the response of the ecosystem, and in particular juvenile pollock, to varying environmental conditions will provide a context for resource management in a changing environment. For more information, contact SEBSCC's project coordinator Allen Macklin (macklin@pmel.noaa.gov) or Mike Dowgiallo (mdowgiallo@cop.noaa.gov). COP Coordinating Harmful Algal Bloom Research Program COP is coordinating the first component of a National research program on harmful algal blooms (HABs). The Ecology and Oceanography of Harmful Algal Blooms (ECOHAB) program is an inter-agency partnership (NOAA, National Science Foundation, the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Office of Naval Research) designed in response to the detrimental effects of HABs on coastal resources, economies, and public health. Beginning in FY 1997, the ECOHAB program will provide $3 million annually for regional studies that provide data on environmental factors favoring development, persistence and collapse of HABs, effects on food webs, resource health, water and habitat quality, and public safety. The program will also focus on developing HAB predictive capabilities for more effective management of these increasingly frequent natural events as well as alleviating the detrimental impacts of the blooms and some toxins on fisheries, and their associated industries. Awards will be made by the end of the summer for studies to provide region-specific data on HABs. Results from the initial studies will provide the base for subsequent regional studies and guide future monitoring, modeling and management efforts in the studied area. Awards will also made for targeted individual studies, proving taxon- or toxin-specific information critical to further expansion of core material about the ecology, physiology, or toxin production of HAB species. For more information, contact COP's ECOHAB coordinator, Kevin Sellner (ksellner@cop.noaa.gov).
COP Projects Enhance NOAA's Operational Capabilities One of COP's operating principles is to facilitate the transfer of successfully completed research and development efforts into operational use and a number of these capabilities have recently been transferred to other NOAA offices. These capabilities have improved NOAA's ability to forecast coastal ocean and Great Lakes conditions, predict the potential hazards from tsunamis and coastal storms, and monitor environmental conditions in the coastal ocean and adjacent uplands. The Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) developed a standardized and nationally accepted protocol for consistent and reliable landcover change information for coastal wetlands and uplands. The program, now maintained by the NMFS since 1995 at NOAA's Coastal Services Center, uses Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery and aerial photography to monitor changes in the extent and location of critical coastal habitats. C-CAP is taking an important step towards providing landcover change information necessary for understanding and analyzing habitat and wetland loss, global change impacts, ecosystem dynamics, and the success of nonpoint source pollution management efforts. For more information, visit the C-CAP homepage at http://www.csc.noaa.gov/ccap/. CoastWatch is designed to provide satellite and in situ environmental
data to Federal and State decision makers and researchers in a timely and accessible
manner. CoastWatch focuses on regional and national priorities, such as unusual
environmental events and tracking harmful algal blooms. Regional coordinators
handle data requests and develop products tailored for their respective region.
CoastWatch was transferred to the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and
Information Service in 1995. For more information, visit the CoastWatch homepage
at
http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/
COP supported development of two tools for dealing with Tsunami Hazards: model-based inundation maps and improved warning systems. Inundation maps, developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), identify areas that are susceptible to flooding before a tsunami occurs and are used to develop evacuation and land-use plans. The warning system was improved by deploying deep sea sensors that detect tsunami wave passage. Earlier tsunami detection enables forecasters to alert people that threatened areas must be evacuated. Warnings are delivered through NOAA's Pacific and Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers. For more information, visit the PMEL homepage at http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/ Non-Hurricane Storm Surges - Responding to the need to improve accurate,
real-time predictions of storm surges caused by storms other than hurricanes,
COP supported the adaptation of the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes
(SLOSH) model to non-hurricane conditions. This model is now oper-ational and
being run from the National Weather Service's Techniques Development Laboratory
(TDL). For more information, The Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System (GLCFS) combines data from satellite, land, and lake-based systems with computer models for real-time prediction of the Great Lakes physical state. Output from the forecasting system includes maps and data sets tailored to display information required by particular user groups. Specific products include: lake temperatures, currents, water levels, wave height and direction, and improved over-lake winds. The Lake Erie Coastal Forecasting System is being transferred to the National Weather Service to become part of their forecast product suite. For more information, visit the Great Lakes Coastal Forecast System homepage at http://superior.eng.ohio-state.edu (Continued on Page 6).
NOAA Operational Products Cont., Similar to the GLCFS is the Coastal Ocean Forecast System (COFS) which is currently in use along the Atlantic coast with plans to implement the system in the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific coast. COFS coastal sea level prediction is proving very capable, and predictions of sea surface temperature have been significantly improved through correction of the surface fluxes. Daily operational COFS output is now available to selected developmental users on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction homepage at http://www.ncep.noaa.gov .
COP's South Florida Effort Adds New Components The COP has been working with its public and private sector partners to study the continuing degradation of South Florida's ecosystem and restore the system's valuable functions and services. Since 1995, COP activities have been addressing worsening environmental conditions in Florida Bay and human impact related risks to the coral reef community along the Florida Keys. These activities aim to define the causes of present environmental changes and quantitatively predicting consequences of Everglades restoration policies being proposed. The Florida Bay activities have a core element involving environmental research and modeling, and already has resulted in preliminary models of Florida Bay oceanographic and meteorological boundary conditions. These models, once operational, will allow accurate estimation and prediction of oceanic flow from the Caribbean into the Bay, and measure the amounts and distribution of rainfall over South Florida. Other valuable data and information from these efforts includes: estimates of fresh water flow from the Everglades into the Bay via the Shark River Slough, first order estimates of mercury accumu-lation and sources in Bay living resources, and cycling of nutrients and their impact on living resources in Florida Bay. The new education/outreach portion of this program, implemented through Florida's Sea Grant Program, will sponsor a series of activities to link the project's science products being developed with ecosystem managers and the diverse public interests of South Florida. All these COP activities are coordinated through the Florida Bay Program Management Committee (PMC), an organization comprised of representatives from all the Federal and State agencies that are studying Florida Bay conditions and are concerned with South Florida restoration policies. This committee has worked well in ensuring a coordinated approach to addressing priority Bay problems and issues. The selection of research, other activities, and principal investigators to conduct the work is accomplished through a competitive peer review process which includes participation by the Florida Bay PMC and external review by interdisciplinary experts. This process has lead to the selection of the best science and principal investigators to conduct the work. Research and modeling activities and principal investigators were selected at the end of March. For more information on COP's role in South Florida restoration efforts, contact Larry Pugh (lpugh@cop.noaa.gov) or Peter Ortner at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (ortner@aoml.noaa.gov). 
COP's Complexity and Stressors in Estuarine Systems (COASTES) project is developing a framework for predicting, understanding, and managing the effects of multiple stressors in coastal systems. The principal classes of stressors under study are inorganic toxic compounds, excess nutrients, and low dissolved oxygen. The Patuxent River, a sub-estuary of the Chesapeake Bay, is already impacted by nutrient enrichment and is currently the target of nutrient reduction strategies. During the first two years of the study, mesocosms (i.e., outdoor tanks approximately three feet in diameter) were used to simulate the estuarine system. Each tank contains different combinations of stressors and different levels of trophic complexity. In this third year, investigators will begin studies to help make the mechanistic link between the impacts of multiple stressors on the simplified ecosystems contained in the mesocosms and the predicted impacts on the Patuxent River ecosystem. This spring, experiments will be conducted in ten to twelve field enclosures approximately ten feet in diameter which will enclose portions of the river from the surface to the bottom. The enclosures are designed to be large enough to incorporate functioning communities, including the resident populations of bacteria, phytoplankton, and on up to larger animals such as fish and oysters. Preliminary results of this project were presented at a special session of the 1997 American Society of Limnology and Oceanography (ASLO) Aquatic Sciences Meeting. In addition, there are plans for an issue of Limnology & Oceanography dedicated to the topic of cumulative effects of multiple stressors in aquatic environments. The COASTES research team is headed by Dr. Denise Breitburg at the Academy
of Natural Sciences Estuarine Research Laboratory, with participating scientists
from the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, University of Maryland,
Maryland Department of the Environment, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Rutgers
University, and State University of New York Great Lakes Center. For more information.
contact COP's COASTES coordinator Susan Banahan (sbanahan@cop.noaa.gov),
or the COASTES homepage at
http://www.acnatsci.org/erd/berc/projects/ HAB Management and Mitigation Workshop is Decision Analysis Series #10 The COP continues to support efforts on the ecology and oceanography of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and to develop the knowledge base from which prevention, control, and mitigation strategies can be developed. These efforts were highlighted in the Winter 1996 edition of this newsletter under the headline ìCOP Tackles Harmful Algal Blooms from Two Directionsî (page 6) and the article on ECOHAB on page 5. As an outcome of the three regional HAB Management and Mitigation Workshops, jointly sponsored last fall by the Coastal Ocean Program and the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, a report has been issued entitled Harmful Algal Blooms in Coastal Waters: Options for Prevention, Control and Mitigation (No. 10 in COPís Decision Analysis Series). After briefly describing the nature, incidence, and causes of HABs, the report assesses management options for reducing blooms (prevention), actions that can quell or contain blooms (control), and steps to reduce the losses of resources or economic values and minimize human health risks (mitigation). A major conclusion of the report is that there is a clear need for Federal and state agencies to support applied research directly addressing prevention, control, and mitigation. For news about COP announcements of opportunity, new publications, links to project website, and more, you will find us at http://www.cop.noaa.gov
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Southeast Bering Sea Carrying Capacity (SEBSCC) engages agencies, groups,
and investigators with broad ecological interest in the southeast Bering
Sea. As described in its home page at 
