By Judy Aita
Washington File United Nations Correspondent

United Nations -- A Security Council committee has warned that the Taliban and their supporters could still have the means to stage an uprising in Afghanistan with surface-to-surface missiles and weapons of mass destruction which they are believed to have in their possession.

The Monitoring Group on Afghanistan said in a report to the Security Council released January 21 that "the Taliban and remnants of al Qaeda are likely to remain a potential threat to the peace process in Afghanistan and in the region for some considerable time to come."

The report noted that before the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, estimates of the number of Taliban troops or militia -- including members of al Qaeda and other foreign fighters -- ranged between 30,00 and 50,000. Since then, many of the Taliban who are indigenous Afghans and Pashtuns from the Pakistan provinces bordering Afghanistan have "melted back into the countryside," it said. It pointed out that a number of instances of banditry and highway robbery have been reported in the areas where the Taliban receives support.

"Past experience of post-conflict situations has shown the readiness of warring factions to use periods of a truce to re-arm and replenish stockpiles of ammunition, ready to revert to an armed struggle to settle their grievances in the event that they perceive the political settlement not to their liking," the report said.

"The group considers that support for the Taliban regime still exists in many places. Due to the strength of this support, the Taliban and al Qaeda are likely to remain a threat for some time to come," it said.

"Consequently, the possibility cannot be ignored that the Taliban and their supporters still possess the means to stage an uprising," the report said.

The Monitoring Group, which is made up of five experts appointed by the secretary general, said in its report that the "single gravest threat to the Interim Administration and lasting peace in Afghanistan" is the unregulated and uncontrolled flow of weapons and military supplies to the different factions within Afghanistan.

It also noted that after the Soviet Armed Forces left Afghanistan in 1991 the military hardware possessed by either the Afghan armed forces or the Mujahideen included 4,880 artillery pieces, 2,000 recoilless rifles, 11,000 antitank weapons, and 5,000 anti-aircraft heavy machine guns.

The group said that prior to the coalition offensive in October the Taliban had about 100 Scud missiles, which may be fitted with conventional, chemical or nuclear warheads, and at least four Scud mobile launch units in Afghanistan. Now the group does not know whether the missiles are operational or where they are located.

The group also had reports that the Taliban had stockpiles of chemical shells, Sarin and VX gas projectiles which could be fired by M46 130 mm guns and it has not been able to verify the locations or quantities of those weapons, the report said.

Citing the fear that the Taliban or their sympathizers could use the missiles to deliver the weapons of mass destruction against the International Security Assistance Force helping the Afghan Interim Authority, the Monitoring Group said that the weapons should be located and monitored.

The experts also pointed to the need to curb the production and trafficking of heroin and opiates in the region. Drug trafficking can be a source of funds for the Taliban and al Qaeda to purchase arms and supplies to continue their struggle, they said.

The Monitoring Group is also concerned about the continued presence inside Afghanistan of other terrorist groups such as the Islamic Movement for Uzbekistan, Chechnyan guerrillas, and Muslim secessionists or Uygurs from the Western Chinese province of Xinjiang, the report said.

The group urged that law enforcement units throughout the world improve their sharing of information on the Taliban, al Qaeda and other organized crime cells. "It is of utmost importance that intelligence and police services worldwide cooperate to a far greater degree in pursuing international terrorist threats," the report said.

Based on its six months of work, the five-man monitoring group recommended that the weapons embargo be maintained against the Taliban, al Qaeda and their sympathizers.

The Security Council voted unanimously to maintain the arms embargo against those groups on January 16.

The group also recommended that as soon as the situation on the ground permits, the UN undertake a process of verification of all known terrorist training facilities and said that "as a matter of priority" the Afghan authorities set up an effective border control service.

"Afghanistan's borders must be controlled from within and without the country," the report said. "Responsibility for the internal control of Afghanistan's borders rests with the governmental authorities in Afghanistan. In the current circumstances this will be difficult to achieve given that the necessary components -- customs and immigration services -- have not yet been effectively established. Consequently, the onus for effective border controls is likely to fall heavily on Afghanistan's neighbors for the foreseeable future."

Thus countries bordering Afghanistan must also reinforce their arms control measures, the group said.

The experts also recommended that UN monitoring teams be sent to Afghanistan to verify that all known terrorist training facilities in Afghanistan are inoperable.

"The presence of these facilities, if reused by factions at odds with the Interim Administration, continue to present a threat to peace and security not only to Afghanistan but to the region as a whole," the report warns. It pointed out that despite reported coalition action against these bases, the scope of damage inflicted on them and their general status remains unknown.

The monitoring group of experts was set up by the Security Council in July 2001 to monitor its resolutions imposing sanctions, especially arms embargoes, and cutting the financial links between terrorists and their money sources. The group of experts, appointed by Secretary General Kofi Annan, is chaired by Michael Chandler of the United Kingdom. Other members of the Monitoring Group are Hasan Ali Abaza of Jordan, Philippe Graver of France, Michael Langan of the United States, and Surendra Shah of Nepal.