November 15, 2002 — Currently, more than half of the population of the United States lives in a coastal zone. Unfortunately for these people, storms in coastal areas are more severe and less predictable than in the interior of the country. In particular, forecasts of storms and associated weather patterns in coastal areas lag behind those of the rest of the nation, mostly due to the difficulty of accurately observing and predicting conditions over oceans. Coastal storms also have a serious economic impact, with damages estimated between $10 billion and $50 billion each year. To help protect the people, economy and environment of coastal areas, local, regional and federal organizations need to focus on the prediction of and preparedness for coastal storms.

The Coastal Storms Initiative is a nationwide effort led by NOAA to lessen the impacts that storms have on coastal communities. To accomplish this goal, local, state and federal organizations (including NOAA’s major organizations) are working together on site-specific projects.

Coastal storms — which include hurricanes, cyclones, nor’easters, and tropical storms — often have far-reaching effects that go beyond immediate weather hazards. For instance, streams and tributaries swollen with storm water runoff carry contaminants (such as fertilizers and bacteria) into estuaries, rivers and eventually the ocean. These contaminants may adversely affect water quality, leading to closures of shellfish beds and tourist beaches. Addressing the diverse impacts of coastal storms requires not only storm prediction, but also information on flooding and water circulation, identification and mapping of vulnerable areas, and coordination of all agencies involved to ensure information is available when it is needed.

The Coastal Storm Initiative’s first pilot program began earlier this year in a watershed in St. Johns Watershed, Fla. This effort is a compilation of nine projects that address specific hazards-related issues. Taken together, the projects will result in a large suite of new and improved tools, data, information, forecast models and training for the coastal communities in the pilot study area.

CSI Projects

• Shallow Water Bathymetry for the St. Johns River: One component of CSI involves conducting a bathymetric survey of shallow water in the St. Johns River Basin. Bathymetry, or measuring water depths with sonar to determine bottom topography, is generally used to promote navigational safety in the nation’s waters by identifying obstructions and changing bottom terrain. When coupled with other CSI projects, the bathymetry will also be helpful for predicting flood ranges, erosion impacts and the possible movement of hazardous spills and harmful algal blooms. Late this spring, the NOAA Office of Coast Survey began work mapping the first portion of the river — from Jacksonville to the mouth at Mayport. When the survey is complete, the data will be used to update critical nautical charts, which will provide information for emergency response organizations to use in the wake of a marine casualty or coastal storm.
• St. Johns River Circulation Model: CSI partners are also working in the St. Johns River to develop a circulation model for the river, which will help coastal and emergency managers effectively plan for, evacuate from and respond to coastal flooding. During a coastal storm, water levels within the river begin to rise due to rain, runoff from tributaries and storm surge. This model will incorporate bathymetry and information on water levels, currents, temperature and salinity to provide real-time river conditions and forecasts. The NOAA Office of Coast Survey expects a real-time version of this model to be running in early 2003. It will provide current conditions hourly and 24-hour forecasts four times a day. By having real-time information, the pilot area will be better able to cope with coastal flooding.
• Improved Oceanographic and Meteorological Observations: While many oceanographic and meteorological networks measure the conditions of the water and atmosphere, these networks often do not use the same systems to measure, compile and store these data. As part of the CSI pilot program in Florida, area networks are working together to integrate their marine forecasting efforts by using standardized sensors and systems. The first step in this direction was taken by the NOAA National Data Buoy Center when it deployed a new weather buoy in June of this year. Data on wind speed, wave heights, air-and sea-surface temperatures and salinity is collected and used in forecasting storms. As reported by Jacksonville Weather Service staff, the buoy has already provided essential information for hurricane forecasting, and has even assisted area shipping captains in navigation and routing decisions. Overall, this enhanced network will be the foundation for an improved environmental monitoring system for northeast Florida.
• Ecological Forecasting of Coastal Storm Impacts: To help coastal communities protect their waters from pollution, NOAA Fisheries and National Ocean Service will provide ecological forecasting tools to assess and mitigate impacts from contaminants dispersed during coastal storm events. These tools investigate how coastal storms move contaminants from point and non-point pollution sources and change the concentrations of bacterial and chemical contaminants in estuarine ecosystems. After evaluating how contaminants affect natural resources, potential mitigation strategies will be identified. As a first step in this direction, the ecological forecasting team has identified three key pesticides of concern in the watershed (out of the almost 200 present) for accelerated research into their fate and transport during storm events. This research will evaluate their potential impacts on estuarine systems. This portion of the team's research will culminate this year in three pesticide fact sheets as a guide for decision makers or as an education tool for local stakeholders.
• Improved Prediction of Coastal Winds, Waves, and Flooding: For this component of CSI, the NOAA National Weather Service will produce accurate and detailed weather and marine forecasts of coastal winds, waves, precipitation and potential flooding. This project will also produce high-resolution forecasts of near shore wave heights and water levels, both of which are not currently available to forecasters. These data can be used by emergency managers, as well as recreational and professional mariners, to help prepare for and safely navigate through coastal storms.
• Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool: To help communities identify their risks and vulnerabilities to coastal storms, the NOAA Coastal Services Center is working with Brevard and Volusia counties to develop an online spatial analysis tool for conducting risk and vulnerability assessments. By engaging the community in the development of the tool, and by integrating real-time data and information from the other Coastal Storms Initiative projects, NOAA is striving to ensure that communities are equipped with the right information in the right format to improve their ability to plan for, respond to and recover from coastal storms. In addition to serving as a planning and decision-support tool for emergency and coastal zone managers, the tool will also educate residents, businesses and tourists about potential coastal storm impacts within their area. Through the tool’s interactive map, a homeowner — for instance — is able to find out how vulnerable his or her property is to coastal storm-related hazards, such as hurricane storm surge, inland flooding, coastal erosion and hurricane winds. The tool will also provide the public with more detailed information about the potential impacts associated with each hazard, including a 3-D model simulation of hurricane storm surge for one community within each county. The project team is also working to incorporate real-time hazard forecast data, such as flood forecast information from the Southeast River Forecast Center, into the prototype assessment tool.
• Outreach and Extension: While technology and information are becoming increasingly vital to most coastal resource management efforts, the human component of community issues and solutions cannot be overlooked. As part of CSI, the NOAA Coastal Services Center will coordinate an outreach program to provide the training and assistance that is necessary to help the different local project partners take full advantage of the tools and information being developed through the initiative. Working in conjunction with the local pilot coordinator, this project is conducting constituent meetings, developing an outreach and extension network, and supplying feedback for any needed training and technical assistance. For instance, if a storage tank is damaged during or after a strong coastal storm, a hazardous chemical spill could result. To be prepared for the possibility of hazardous chemical spills, the NOAA Office of Response and Restoration is conducting a workshop to prepare first responders in the Florida pilot area. The first part of the workshop identifies risks, inventories resources available and develops applicable training scenarios. The second part of the workshop uses NOAA spill response software (CAMEO, ALOHA, and Reactivity database) to work through these scenarios and their implications. The final step of this training is to develop a coastal area contingency plan for hazardous materials response.
• Integration of Coastal Data & Data Access and Standards: Coastal ocean and weather observations (often called data) are useful to coastal managers, emergency responders, land use planners and many others. These data are used in various tools to identify risks and vulnerabilities to coastal storms. However, data used for this purpose can be hard to find and use. The final two projects of CSI were designed to work in concert to help organizations find user-friendly data. The NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory is working with the local community to identify, collect, reformat, document and record coastal ocean and weather observations. Once the data is reformatted, these more compatible data will then be made widely available to the user community in a timely, user-friendly and understandable way through the NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center. This project will provide "one-stop shopping" for new and existing coastal data and information through development of an online metadata catalog, which will help users find relevant data.

The Future of CSI
The Coastal Storms Initiative was envisioned by Margaret Davidson, director of the NOAA Coastal Services Center, as a way to integrate NOAA’s capabilities under one umbrella to better address the diverse impacts of coastal storms. This more integrated approach requires coordination across NOAA's line offices, including the NOAA Fisheries, National Ocean Service, National Weather Service, NOAA Research, and National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. By combining these offices’ knowledge, skills and research, NOAA is better able to further its mission of describing and predicting changes in the nation’s coastal environment, while conserving and wisely managing its coastal and marine resources.

Once the projects of the pilot program have been successfully completed, the Coastal Storms Initiative plans to expand to the Pacific Northwest next, and then to other coastal areas across the nation. In the short term, the Florida pilot program may be useful to other southeastern states as a demonstration project.

“The Coastal Storms Initiative is bringing pertinent and up-to-date coast-related information to those who need it most,” says Davidson. “Cross program efforts like this one help NOAA maximize its efforts to protect coastal communities.”

Relevant Web Sites

NOAA's Coastal Storms Initiative

NOAA's hurricane theme page

NOAA's Office of Coast Survey

NOAA's flooding theme page

NOAA storm surge information

NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center

NOAA's Jacksonville Weather Service

NOAA's ecological forecasting activities

NOAA's marine forecasts

NOAA's Coastal Services Center

NOAA's Southeast River Forecast Center

NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration

NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Margaret Davidson, director of NOAA's Coastal Service Center

NOAA's Fisheries NOAA's National Ocean Service

NOAA's National Weather Service NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research

NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service.

Media Contact:
Glenda Tyson, NOAA's Ocean Service, (301) 713-3066