New HRSA Report Predicts Deepening Nursing Shortage

The nation’s nursing shortage is projected to worsen significantly over the next two decades if current trends continue, according to a July 2002 report released by the Department of Health and Human Services.

The report, titled Projected Supply, Demand, and Shortages of Registered Nurses: 2000-2020, says the shortage will deepen because increasing numbers of nurses are retiring while too few are entering the profession.  The national supply of registered nurses in 2000 was estimated at 1.89 million, while the demand was estimated at 2 million, for a shortage of 110,000, or 6 percent.

Based on what is known about trends in the supply of RNs and anticipated demand, the shortage is expected to double to 12 percent by 2010.  By 2015, the shortage is expected to more than triple to 20 percent and to continue growing to 29 percent by 2020.

The projected shortage in 2020 is the result of a projected 40 percent increase in demand as compared to a projected 6 percent growth in supply over the 2000 to 2020 period.  Demand will grow steadily at a rate of 1.7 percent annually.  Factors driving this growth in demand include an 18 percent growth in the population, a larger proportion of elderly in the population, and medical advances.

In contrast, all of the 6 percent growth in supply will occur by 2011, after which the nursing supply is projected to remain relatively constant through 2020 as the number of older nurses leaving the profession approaches the number of nurses entering the field.  Two factors contributing to the slow growth in supply are relatively flat earning power for nurses since 1991, and the emergence of alternate job opportunities.

The report also indicates that the national shortage of RNs is not evenly distributed across States.  In 2000, 30 States were estimated to have had shortages.  By 2020, however, 44 States and the District of Columbia are projected to have shortages.

In response to the emerging nursing shortage, HHS Secretary Tommy G. Thompson announced in June more than $30 million in grant awards to increase the number of qualified nurses and the quality of nursing across the country.

The report is available online at http://bhpr.hrsa.gov/healthworkforce/rnproject.

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