By Merle D. Kellerhals, Jr.
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- The United States is more likely to be attacked by a weapon of mass destruction from a terrorist group using conventional means such as a truck, ship or airplane than a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile, a newly released national intelligence report says.

"Some nonstate entities are seeking chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) materials and would be willing to use them without missiles," the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) report said.

The reason a non-missile delivery method is more likely to be used against the United States, its allies and U.S. interests abroad is because they are less costly, easier to acquire, and more reliable and accurate, the report said.

The new report -- Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015 -- was produced by the National Intelligence Council at the CIA and released January 10. It is the fourth annual report on ballistic missile development specially prepared for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and only the second unclassified summary published since the first report in September 1999.

It represents the current assessment of the CIA and 12 other U.S. government agencies that make up the U.S. intelligence community on new missile developments and projections of possible and likely ballistic missile threats to the United States, its allies and interests abroad and U.S. military forces through 2015. The report also updates assessments of theater ballistic missile forces worldwide; discusses the evolving proliferation environment; and provides a summary of forward-based threats and cruise missiles.

"The probability that a missile with a weapon of mass destruction will be used against U.S. forces or interests is higher today than during most of the Cold War, and it will continue to grow as the capabilities of potential adversaries mature," the intelligence report said.

While ballistic missiles remain a mainstay in military arsenals around the globe, all too often states are willing to devote scarce resources to develop or acquire them, the intelligence report said.

The mostly likely ballistic missile threats the United States will face in the next 15 years will come from North Korea and Iran -- Iraq is less likely, though possible -- "barring significant changes in their political orientations," the report said. Other likely threats come from the strategic forces of Russia and China, the report said.

"China has been modernizing its long-range strategic missile force since the mid-1980s, shifting from reliance primarily on silo-based, liquid-propellant CSS-4s to mobile solid-propellant systems," the report said.

And, North Korea has extended until 2003 a missile launch moratorium on its Taepo Dong-2, which is capable of reaching portions of the United States with a nuclear weapon-sized payload, the report said.

"The trend in ballistic missile development worldwide is toward a maturation process among existing ballistic missile programs rather than toward a large increase in the number of countries possessing ballistic missiles," the report said.

Russia currently maintains the most comprehensive ballistic missile force capable of reaching the United States, the report said. From a high of approximately 10,000 nuclear warheads in 1990, Russia now has almost 4,000 warheads on its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

"Russia currently has about 700 ICBMs with 3,000 warheads and a dozen [submarines] SSBNs equipped with 200 launchers for SLBMs that can carry 900 warheads," the report said.

By 2015, the U.S. Intelligence Community believes the Russian strategic forces will have less than 2,000 deployed nuclear warheads, the report said.

China currently has 20 CSS-4 silo-based missiles that can reach targets in the United States, and about a dozen CSS-3 ICBMs that are targeted against Russia and other states in Asia, the report said.

"Beijing is concerned about the survivability of its strategic deterrent against the United States and has a long-running modernization program to develop mobile, solid-propellant ICBMs," the report said.

While North Korea has hundreds of Scud and No Dong missiles, it has continued to develop its new, longer-range Taepo Dong-2. However, it has unilaterally extended its voluntary flight-test moratorium -- in effect since 1999 -- to 2003, the intelligence report said, "provided negotiations with the United States proceeded."

A copy of the unclassified summary of the National Intelligence Estimate is available on the Internet at 
http://www.cia.gov/nic/pubs/other_products/Unclassifiedballisticmissilefinal.htm