By Jim Fisher-Thompson
Washington File staff writer

Washington -- Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is more likely to comply with United Nations Resolution 1441, calling for the removal of weapons of mass destruction from his country, if he sees the U.N. Security Council "unified" in its insistence that he quit stalling and do so quickly, said Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Marc Grossman.

In a February 6 interview, Grossman said repeatedly that the United States does not want war. But Iraqi intransigence has engendered "the dilemma or paradox of force," which he explained means, "You have to be ready for a war to avoid a war." And he stressed, "It is the Iraqis themselves who must come to the conclusion that it is time to meet the obligation that is levied on them 15 to nothing by Resolution 1441."

The career foreign service officer made his comments during an interview with German and Mexican reporters via a digital video conference (DVC) arranged by the State Department's Office of Public Diplomacy, as a follow-up to Secretary of State Colin Powell's February 5 presentation on Iraqi noncompliance at the United Nations.

Basically, "What we're asking people to do," he said, is "support a path that will strengthen the Security Council and disarm Saddam Hussein, and, if we stay united on this, to do so peacefully."

Christoph Rabe, foreign editor of the German daily Handelsblatt, asked Grossman how the United States planned to gather more support for its case.

Grossman replied, "There was an opening yesterday, made by Secretary Powell. And people have started to understand a little better why this [Iraqi refusal to give up its weapons of mass destruction] concerns us. As to next steps, we'll have to wait and see" and, as part of that process, "we look forward to further consultations with the Security Council."

Asked about a possible U.N. deadline for Iraqi compliance, Grossman said, "I actually agree with the very good statement that was made by the U.K. Ambassador last week which is: if you look at Resolution 687 [1991], he [Saddam] has now had 600 weeks to comply and no compliance yet. He's had since November to comply with 1441, and no compliance yet. And our President and Secretary [Powell] have now talked about weeks, and not months."

Grossman reminded the German journalist, "Our purpose here is to achieve this goal of disarming Iraq peacefully. It is not to have a war. And one of the reasons Secretary Powell made this very powerful presentation yesterday was to try to remind countries like Mexico, and Germany -- Security Council countries -- that if we stay unified and if we say we are prepared to enforce Resolution 1441 then our belief is Saddam Hussein will say, 'My time is up; it is for me now to disarm.'"

The U.S. diplomat stressed, "We want to do this peacefully and do it quickly, and we want to do it in such a way that it enhances the power of the Security Council."

Asked by Rabe if the United States would push for another U.N. Resolution on the Iraqi question, Grossman said, "We've always said we would consider a second U.N. resolution." But "that is a decision our President and Secretary Powell will have to make. Secretary Powell is reporting today to the President on his impressions of the Security Council meeting yesterday. I assume he and the President will come to some conclusion quickly." [Shortly after this interview was conducted, President Bush said at the White House that the United States "would welcome and support a new resolution which makes clear that the Security Council stands behind its previous demands" for Iraqi disarmament.]

Commenting on U.S.-German relations, Grossman said, "Germany is an ally of the United States." However, "It is no secret that the bilateral relationship now has a disagreement over Iraq. But when you look at the totality of what we do together as NATO countries: we appreciate the constructive comments made by Foreign Minister [Joschka] Fischer on North Korea; we appreciate the fact that Germany, along with the Netherlands, is on the 10th of February taking over ISAF (International Security Assistance Force) responsibility in Afghanistan; Interior Minister [Otto] Schily is here, in Washington, today -- those are all good things."

When Rabe wondered if Grossman expected Germany to "fall into line" with a potential "U.S. military operation in Iraq," the U.S. diplomat responded, "Germany is a democracy and will have to take its own decision. With all due respect, the idea that somehow people would fall into line is really not a fair characterization of what we're asking here. What we're asking people to do is to support the Security Council ... and recognize that the threat of force, paradoxically perhaps, is the way to deal with this [crisis] peacefully."

But Grossman added, "Let's not assume that there's going to be a conflict or make it into a self-fulfilling prophecy. What's required to avoid a conflict is for the Security Council to stay united and for the message to Saddam Hussein to be that he must comply with 1441 ... [or] this is the end of the line for him."

Leonardo Valero, a foreign affairs reporter with the Reforma newspaper in Mexico City, asked Grossman what reaction he expected from the Mexican government after Secretary Powell's "presentation of evidence." The diplomat said, "I would assume it would consider the evidence and the next time the Security Council gets together your permanent representative would have something to say. But, it isn't really for me to say how and when Mexico should respond."

Reforma reporter Daniel Millan pointed out that the bulk of Mexican public opinion was against a war with Iraq, to which Grossman replied, "If I had a chance to speak to the Mexican people, the first thing I would say is that the American people are not in favor of a war with Iraq if we don't need one.

"So, I want to be clear here that no one says that war is the only option. There is no one who says that we're on a drive to war," Grossman told the reporter. "Our purpose here is to try to solve this thing peacefully. The second thing I would say to them is that we're in a paradox or dilemma of force, if you will, which is that we believe that the only way Saddam Hussein will disarm peacefully is if he believes we are prepared to disarm him with a military action.

"And I ask you to accept the argument that the reason there are inspectors in Iraq today is that the Security Council passed Resolution 1441 unanimously. If they hadn't passed it unanimously, Saddam Hussein would have said, 'Ah, just throw this in the trash. [It's] another Security Council resolution I don't need to abide by.' But, because they passed it unanimously, we have inspectors in Iraq today -- that's a good thing."

The question now, he told the Mexican journalists, is how do you move from inspections to disarmament. "And I believe the way to move from inspections to disarmament is to have a military coalition ready to enforce Resolution 1441. That's a paradox. It means you have to be ready for a war to avoid war. But I think that is something that peoples in democracies like the United States and Mexico can understand."