SKYWARN NEWSLETTER

National Weather Service, NOAA

Pittsburgh, PA

Summer/Fall 2004

IT HAS BEEN A RATHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER YEAR SO FAR!

As we move into fall, our yearly warning count is closing in on 1100 for 2004. This includes Flash Flood, Flood, Severe Thunderstorm, and Tornado Warnings. The following list represents the approximate number of warnings issued by the NWS in Pittsburgh over the last 7 years through 09/30/04:

2004 - 1069

2003 - 900

2002 - 469

2001 - 270

1999 - 290

1998 - 817

1997 - 318

One thing to keep in mind is that going into the 2003 year, we gained an additional warning (Flood Warning) that could be issued in addition to the Flash Flood Warning. This has slightly increased the total number of warnings since 2003. However, given the shear number of warnings we issued this year, SKYWARN has never been more important!

SO MANY FUNNEL CLOUDS, SO FEW TORNADOES!

We have always had a tendency to receive numerous funnel cloud reports. This is one reason why we spend time in the SKYWARN class discussing and viewing tornado, funnel cloud, and tornado look-alike images. However, this year in particular, we’ve received an overabundance of funnel cloud reports. As we discuss in the SKYWARN class, there are many things that resemble funnel clouds, but not many are actually rotating. There is a rule that is often used in the Central Region of the National Weather Service. It states “If it doesn’t spin, don’t call it in”. This is probably not a bad idea. We have received funnel cloud reports (sometimes even tornado on the ground reports) during every severe weather episode this year. A large portion of these reports originate with the general public. However, there are also some that come in from SKYWARN.

There are many things, which appear as funnel clouds including fractus clouds and scud clouds. There’s also a tremendous amount of shear within thunderstorms. Many times you can see the various clouds moving at different directions. However, you won’t always see “rotation”. Please try and have patience. Look for rotation and look for debris.

With so many reports of funnel clouds, you can understand why every report does not generate a Tornado Warning from the NWS. First of all, no report is taken lightly. We investigate each one using our radar and surrounding radars. We use multiple mechanisms and several resources to determine whether to issue a warning. If we had issued warnings based on all of the funnel cloud reports we have received, there would be so many Tornado Warnings that people would become complacent/desensitized and no longer believe us when there actually was a tornado. Although we have had funnel and/or tornado reports with every severe weather episode this year, we have only had two confirmed tornadoes within our county warning area.

KEEP IN MIND OUR 5-YEAR RECERTIFICATION

We continue with our 5-year SKYWARN recertification. If you haven’t been to a SKYWARN in 5 years, you need to attend in order to continue in the program and keep your name in our database.

NOAA WEATHER RADIO (NWR) OUTAGES

If you ever notice that one of our NWR transmitters is off the air, please contact us as soon as possible. We frequently quality control all our transmitters. However, many of them are far away. We do have mechanism in place to monitor the transmitters. It is a small receiver at each site. The problem is that a transmitter may be broadcasting on very low power. To us, it seems fine because our on-site receiver is picking up the signal. However, 15 miles to 20 miles away, there is no signal. That’s were you can help. You can use the SKYWARN toll free number to report any NOAA Weather Radio problems. Thanks.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CLASSES THIS FALL

This spring, I could only conduct 14 classes. I had to reschedule several classes for this fall. Check out our web site for dates and times.

I often get the question about how SKYWARN classes are scheduled. Each winter I send a letter to “every” county Emergency Management Agency. I ask them to coordinate with their county Emergency Coordinator (EC) and to please send me several potential dates. Some counties host a class every year. Other counties opt to host a class every second or third year. Once I get the list and dates of the interested counties, I then combine them with any other requests from amateur radio clubs, the Red Cross, Fire Departments, etc. As a result, the frequency and locations of SKYWARN classes are directly dependent on the interest and availability of particular organizations/groups to host the classes.

A REMINDER: THE IMPORTANCE OF REPORTING WINTER WEATHER

(Courtesy - Rich Redmond, Forecaster NWS Pittsburgh)

Well, summer has flown by and it is time to start thinking about the upcoming winter. As you know, our area is notorious for the varying kinds of precipitation that occur during the winter months. Reports of precipitation types and accumulations are extremely important for the forecast and warning process.

The area has just ended 12 consecutive months of above normal precipitation and there is no concrete evidence to suggest that this streak will end. Long-range forecasts predict an even chance that temperatures will average near normal throughout the winter months. This all adds up to what could be another busy winter across the region.

Snowfall-

Last winter snow accumulations started off slowly with only a trace of snow in October and 1.2 inches in November. However, snow amounts increased drastically into December and January with 21.3 inches and 18.3 inches, respectively. Last winter’s snowfall total of 54.2 inches was well above the normal of 43.1 inches for Pittsburgh. This was the second consecutive winter with above normal snowfall. The winter of 02-03 provided the area with 61.8 inches. These snow amounts are recorded at the Pittsburgh NWS office. These numbers do not show the full picture of snowfall across our 4 state area. An aspect of winter weather in our area is that we can experience different weather features that provide accumulating snowfall (frontal snow, lake effect snow, lake enhanced snow, orographic (mountain) snow and of course large winter storm systems). All of these features provide accumulations that can be very different across the region. This is where SKYWARN observers become and invaluable asset to the National Weather Service. We need your timely and accurate reports of snowfall. Without SKYWARN reports it is impossible for us to know exactly how much snow is falling/fallen and in what locations. This information is critical to a good forecast and accurate and timely warnings.

SKYWARN observers have always done a good job of relaying snow reports during major winter storms. We would like to hear more reports during other events. Lake effect and lake-enhanced snow is incredibly hard to forecast because its effects are so local. Generally, lake effect snow falls in bands. If you are under the band you will experience rapidly accumulating snow, however a mile or two to either side of the band and there is no snow at all. Orographic snow is another type of localized snow. It is very difficult for us to know how much snow is falling on the mountain tops. SKYWARN reports during these events provide much needed information to be used in the forecast and warnings/advisory process.

Keeping us updated on snow depth is also important. This allows us to get an idea of where the deepest snow pack is and in turn determine how much water is available if the snow melts. This is helpful in determining what locations are at risk for flooding should we experience a rapid melt.

-Mixed precipitation

As you know, mixed precipitation is a big problem for the area and a forecast headache for us. It can wreak havoc on roadways, sidewalks, and in some instances power lines and trees. What makes this type of event so hard to forecast is that precipitation type can change over small areas. One location could be experiencing rain, while another may have freezing rain and sleet. A report that includes precipitation type and temperature would help our forecasting and warning process immensely. By knowing where lines of change are, we can accurately warn the public on where dangerous conditions are possible. In addition, if we can get an idea of how the precipitation has changed during a storm and also what the temperatures are doing, we can formulate a trend that will only improve our forecasts. We need reports of freezing rain and ice accumulations. In addition, we need reports of snow mixing with rain or sleet and we need to know when snow changes to rain or visa versa.

SKYWARN reports have always been extremely helpful to us during the winter months. Your reports improve the timeliness and accuracy of warnings and advisories. This year we would like to ask you for a bit more help. Don’t forget, knowing precipitation type and temperature is very useful to us. Letting us know how much snow you have received and even how much is on the ground provides us with current conditions, but can also be very helpful for future forecasts.

Even though winter SKYWARN reports may not seem as exciting as those in the summer, they are still extremely important and critical to the forecasting and warning process.

WHAT ABOUT AN ADVANCED SKYWARN CLASS?

I’m still pondering the possibility! However, one problem is that in any given class, there tends to be a mix of veteran spotters as well as new spotters. New spotters would benefit very little from an Advanced Class. If we offer an Advanced Class, it would undoubtedly be limited to only a few locations. I’ll keep you posted on any progress.

SKYWARN LIST GROUP - PITTSBURGH

If you're not already a member, consider subscribing to the Yahoo! Group SKYWARN Pittsburgh. It's a great way for

SKYWARNers in the Pittsburgh CWA to stay connected, share information, discuss the weather, share files and pictures, and more! To join, just visit http://www.yahoogroups.com/groups/SKYWARN_pittsburgh

FROM THE MIC

Thank You!

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh would like to extend a sincere thank you to all our SKYWARN volunteers. We have tremendous technology and our scientific knowledge is continually improving; but we couldn’t conduct an effective warning service without you. In real time, you validate what we “see” on the radar and help refine what our atmospheric models are predicting. After the storm, you provide feedback that tells us how effective our warning decision making and detection techniques have been. It all fits together…the science, the technology and you, our “Eyes In The Skies”. The result is the best possible warnings - warnings that save lives and property. Thank you for your dedicated service.

Theresa Rossi

Meteorologist In Charge

AMATEUR RADIO NOTES

Many thanks to all those amateur radio operators out there, especially those local amateur radio operators who came into the office this summer. Among them were: Josh (KB3GIO), Mark (N3PBQ), Alan (KB3DHC), Jim N3KJJ, Dave WA3YER, Mike (WA3PYU), and Gorman (N3YQY). Also many thanks to Josh, Alan, Mark, and Gorman for their time, interest, enthusiasm, and dedication to the SKYWARN program. (More from amateur radio will appear in subsequent newsletters).

Rich Kane (Warning Coordination Meteorologist)

Cynthia Powell (Administrative Assistant)