NATIONAL PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH AND RECONNAISSANCE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

FOREWORD
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose
1.2 Operational Forecast Agencies
1.2.1 NOAA's Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)
1.2.2 The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
1.2.3 Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
1.2.4 Central South Pacific
1.3 Research Groups
1.3.1 Overview of AMS Papers
1.3.2 NOAA
1.3.3 U.S. Universities
1.3.4 Foreign Meteorological Services
1.4 Sources of Research Support (summary)
1.4.1 TPC
1.4.2 CPHC
1.4.3 JTWC

CHAPTER 2. CURRENT CAPABILITIES
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Data Sources
2.2.1 General
2.2.2 Aircraft Reconnaissance
2.2.3 Geostationary Satellites
2.2.4 Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES)
2.2.5 Weather Radar
2.2.6 Data Sources for TPC
2.2.7 Data Sources for CPHC
2.2.8 Data Sources for JTWC
2.3 Forecast Guidance Products
2.3.1 Forecast Guidance Products Used By TPC
2.3.2 Forecast Guidance Products Used By CPHC
2.3.3 Forecast Guidance Products Used By JTWC
2.4 Publicly Issued Products
2.4.1 Publically Issued Products From TPC
2.4.2 Publically Issued Products From CPHC
2.4.3 Publically Issued Products From JTWC

CHAPTER 3. PRESSING FORECAST AND WARNING CHALLENGES
3.1 Introduction
3.1.1 Research and Development Categorization
3.2 Position and Motion
3.2.1 Positioning
3.2.2 Initial Motion
3.2.3 Track Forecasts
3.3 Surface Wind Description
3.3.1 Intensity Estimate
3.3.2 Relationship Between Winds and Pressures
3.3.3 Intensity Forecasts
3.3.4 Radii of Surface Winds
3.3.5 Hurricane/Typhoon Vertical Wind Structure
3.4 Synoptic Environment
3.4.1 Tropical Analysis
3.4.2 Improve Forecasting
3.4.3 Tropical Cyclone Genesis
3.4.4 Other Model Upgrades
3.5 Rainfall
3.5.1 Tropical Cyclone-Specific Satellite Rainfall Estimates
3.5.2 Other Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecasting Techniques
3.6 Doppler Radar
3.6.1 Develop Algorithms
3.6.2 Interpretation of Radar Presentations
3.6.3 Data Archiving
3.7 Tornadoes
3.8 Storm Surge
3.8.1 The Coastal Effects of Reefs on Storm Surge
3.9 Sea State
3.9.1 Estimation
3.9.2 Forecasting
3.9.3 Coastal Effects
3.10 Information and Data Management
3.10.1 Data Requirements
3.10.2 Damage Assessment
3.10.3 Tropical Cyclone Typing
3.10.4 Objective Aid Evaluation
3.10.5 Global Model Evaluation
3.11 Non-meteorological Items
3.11.1 Presentation of Information
3.11.2 Action Motivation Studies
3.11.3 Evacuation Studies
3.11.4 Communications
3.11.5 Economic Aspects
3.11.6 Media Interface
3.11.7 Architectural-Engineering Studies
3.11.8 Disaster Preparedness in General
3.12 Summary of Needed Research by Category

CHAPTER 4. STRATEGY TO ADDRESS CHALLENGES
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Observations/Analyses
4.3 Forecasting
4.4 Dissemination
4.5 Verification/Documentation
4.6 Funding Profiles

CHAPTER 5. OVERALL PROGRAM ASSESSMENT
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Improvements in Motion but Not Intensity Prediction
5.2.1 Motion Forecasts (Atlantic Basin)
5.2.2 Motion Forecast (Western North Pacific Basin)
5.2.3 Motion Forecasts (Eastern North Pacific Basin)
5.2.4 Rate of Forecast Improvement
5.2.5 Intensity Forecasts
5.3 Coastal Hurricane Warnings
5.4 Costs Associated with Coastal Hurricane Warnings
5.5 Relationship Between Size of Hurricane Warning Zones and Forecast Error
5.6 Hurricane/Typhoon Warnings for Islands and Point Locations
5.6.1 Costs in the Western North Pacific
5.6.2 Costs for Hawaii
5.7 Estimates of Minimum Attainable Forecast Accuracy
5.7.1 Estimate from a Statistical Model
5.7.2 Estimate from a Dynamical Model
5.8 Cost Effectiveness of Continued R&D
5.9 Summary and Conclusions

APPENDIX A. TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH PROGRAMS
A.1 General
A.2 U.S. Universities
A.2.1 Colorado State University
A.2.2 Florida State University
A.2.3 Pennsylvania State University
A.2.4 U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
A.2.5 University of Wisconsin
A.2.6 University of Hawaii
A.2.7 University of Guam
A.2.8 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A.2.9 University of Miami
A.2.10 State University of New York at Albany
A.2.11 North Carolina State University
A.2.12 University of Rhode Island
A.2.13 University of South Florida
A.2.14 Yale University
A.2.15 California Institute of Technology/Jet Propulsion Lab
A.2.16 University of Arizona
A.2.17 University of Washington
A.2.18 Scripps Institute
A.2.19 University of Puerto Rico
A.3 NOAA Affiliations
A.3.1 Hurricane Research Division
A.3.2 Tropical Prediction Center
A.3.3 National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC)
A.3.4 GFDL
A.3.5 NESDIS
A.4 DOD Affiliations
A.4.1 JTWC
A.4.2 Office of Naval Research (ONR)
A.4.3 Naval Research Laboratory
A.4.4 Air Force Global Weather Center
A.5 Other Institutional Affiliations
A.5.1 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
A.5.2 NASA
A.6 Private Sector
A.7 Foreign Universities
A.7.1 University of Munich, Germany
A.7.2 City University of Hong Kong
A.7.3 Monash University/ University of New South Wales
A.7.4 Mexico
A.7.5 Israel
A.8 Foreign Meteorological Services
A.8.1 Australia (Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC), Perth, Darwin, Brisbane)
A.8.2 United Kingdom
A.9 Summary of Promising Technology

APPENDIX B. ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS

APPENDIX C. REFERENCES