By Darlisa Crawford
Washington File Staff Writer

On February 3 voters in Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina will vote on their preference for a Democratic nominee in primaries and caucuses. These elections will be important indicators of how different regions of the U.S. view the Democratic race.

South Carolina is the first state to hold an election in which large numbers of African Americans are expected to vote, possibly accounting for as many as half of those who cast ballots. The results in South Carolina may thus reflect which Democratic candidate this important minority will favor in later primaries throughout the South and elsewhere.

In the January 13 non-binding Democratic primary in the District of Columbia, which also has a significant African American population, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Reverend Al Sharpton came out on top, although only 8 percent of eligible voters participated and several of the candidates declined to participate.

Senator John Edwards (North Carolina), who was born in South Carolina, is currently expected to put in a strong showing there on February 3. A poll taken in January put Edwards in second place, in a tie with former General Wesley Clark. Dean was first, and Sharpton fourth. But Edwards' surprisingly strong finish in Iowa, second only to Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, and Dean's decline there will no doubt alter these rankings going into new Hampshire.

Jobs and unemployment are predicted to be key issues in South Carolina, where it is estimated that more than 100,000 jobs in the textile industry have been lost since 2000. Candidates have proposed various job creation and protection plans to court voters affected by these changes.

In Missouri, Representative Dick Gephardt was considered to be a sure winner in his home state's primary until his withdrawal from the race following his poor Iowa showing. Now, other Democratic candidates are vying for voters' attention in Missouri and for Gephardt's endorsement. Gephardt has said he will support the eventual Democratic nominee but has so far declined to endorse any of his rivals.

In the West, important issues include immigration, border security, Native American affairs and water. Minority voters will play a significant role in many of these states. In Arizona, for example, 27 percent of the population is Hispanic and 5 percent is Native American. New Mexico has an even larger concentration of Hispanics, more than 42 percent.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, a Democrat and the country's only Hispanic governor, believes the Hispanic vote will be decisive in several states. "I believe Hispanics will be the key voting bloc in four battleground states -- in New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Florida," he says. "And I believe those states will decide the presidency."

The seven states voting on February 3 have 47 Electoral College votes combined, more than four times what Iowa and New Hampshire together are allotted. Despite these relatively modest numbers (it will take 270 electoral votes to win the presidency), the primary and caucus results will be important bellwethers of how voters in these regions view the contest for the Democratic Party nominee.

Although President Bush has virtually no competition for the Republican nomination, he or his campaign managers have visited some of the states scheduled to vote on February 3. Bush traveled to Arizona and New Mexico in the days following his State of the Union address to push his proposed immigration policy and his new job-training program, both of which are of great interest to Hispanic voters.