"Parkfield remains the best
identified locale to trap an earthquake."
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National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, 1994
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The Town
of Parkfield, located on the San
Andreas fault in central California, has been the
site of an intensive, multidisciplinary earthquake study
since the late 1970's. The goal is to observe the fault
and surrounding crust at close range at the time before,
during and after an earthquake, to better understand the
earthquake process and provide a scientific basis for
earthquake prediction.
Close- up map of Parkfield study area. |
The Parkfield Experiment is
a comprehensive, long-term earthquake research project on
the San Andreas fault. Led by the USGS and the State of California,
the experiment's purpose is to better understand the physics
of earthquakes - what actually happens on the fault and in
the surrounding region before, during and after an earthquake.
Ultimately, scientists hope to better understand the earthquake
process and, if possible, to provide a scientific basis for
earthquake prediction. Since its inception in 1985, the experiment
has involved more than 100 researchers at the USGS and collaborating
universities and government laboratories. Their coordinated
efforts have led to a dense network of instruments poised
to "capture" the anticipated earthquake and reveal
the earthquake process in unprecedented detail.
Hypothesis: Moderate-size earthquakes
of about magnitude 6 have occurred on the Parkfield section
of the San Andreas Fault at fairly regular intervals - in
1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966. The first, in 1857,
was a foreshock to the great Fort Tejon earthquake which ruptured
the fault from Parkfield to the southeast for over 180 miles.
Available data suggest that all six moderate-sized Parkfield
earthquakes may have been "characteristic" in the
sense that they all ruptured the same area on the fault. If
such characteristic ruptures occur regularly, then the next
quake would have been due before 1993. However, the predicted
earthquake still has not occurred (as of June, 2002). Current
estimates of the likelihood of the next Parkfield earthquake
are about 10% per year.
These pages describe the scientific
background for the experiment, including the tectonic setting
at Parkfield, the historical earthquake activity on this section
of the San Andreas fault, the monitoring and data collecting
activities currently being carried out, and plans for future
research. Data are available to view in real-time and download.
Scientific Advances:
While the greatest scientific payoff is expected when
the earthquake occurs, our understanding of the earthquake
process has already been advanced through research results
from Parkfield. Some of the highlights are described.
Data: Real-time data from instrumentation
networks running at Parkfield are available for viewing and
downloading.
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