By Phillip Kurata
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- The U.S. Envoy to Kabul Zalmay Khalilzad is cautiously optimistic that Afghanistan's first, direct presidential election with universal suffrage will take place October 9 without major violence by insurgents attempting to disrupt it.

"This is obviously a defining moment in Afghan history and an important event for this part of the world, and I expect that things will go relatively well given the conditions in this country," Khalilzad said in Kabul October 7.

Khalilzad said Afghan and international security forces have thwarted attempts by insurgents to cancel the election but he expects minor disturbances to occur at a few of the thousands of voting stations and election centers.

"My view is that on election day there will be some disturbance, but it's not going to be significant to affect the credibility of the election," he said. "[M]y own assessment at present is that of the 25,000 stations, or 5,000 or so election centers, the opponents of Afghanistan's progress are unlikely to be able to go after more than a few such centers."

The election is taking place three years after a U.S.-led coalition toppled the Taliban regime, which provided a base of operations for Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaida terrorists to launch their attacks against the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001.

With the assistance of the international community, Afghanistan has begun to remake itself into a peaceful, moderate democracy with a market-based economy and protections for human rights, especially for those of women.

"Today, the Taliban are gone, and the Afghan people stand at the dawn of a new day," said Secretary of State Colin Powell. "Thanks to their hard work and some targeted assistance from the United Nations and over four dozen nations and friends of Afghanistan, the Afghan people will chart their own political destiny."

Eighteen candidates, one of them a woman, are competing for the votes of the 10.5 million registered voters, of whom more than 41 percent are women. In addition, Afghan refugees in Iran and Pakistan will be able to cast ballots.

The registration of the voters was accomplished in the face of violent and deadly attacks by remnants of the Taliban, al-Qaida and other extremist groups. The extremists' attempts to intimidate Afghans into not registering had the opposite effect. It reinforced their determination to obtain voting cards and get their names on the polling lists.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan reported to the Security Council in August that the high rate of voter registration showed that the groups carrying out the violence are politically isolated.

A woman named Badria was reported by the Joint Electoral Management Body as saying about the approaching election, "Yes, I am scared because some people say the Taliban are threatening." But after having taken a risky trip to the registration site, she added, "I've made it. I am determined to take part in the elections because I think elections will change our lives."

Even though getting women to register is in itself a significant achievement, getting them to come out to vote on polling day remains a challenge. An orchestrated effort by the election organizing body, community leaders, civil society groups, the international community and security groups is indispensable to creating an atmosphere in which women feel safe to vote, according to Lily Munir, a commissioner of the Joint Electoral Management Body, which is made up of Afghan and U.N. officials.

Women's participation in the elections is for more than the principle of gender equality, Munir said. Their voice is vital for the stability of the nascent democracy because they account for two-thirds of the Afghan population, she added.

In the period of time leading up to the election, irregularities were reported in the registration process that allowed an estimated several hundred thousand people to obtain multiple voting cards. But Ambassador Khalilzad said that indelible ink will be placed on the voters' fingers after they cast their ballots, preventing people from voting more than once.

The Afghan Media Commission, tasked with overseeing fair reporting in the election, has enforced a code of conduct for fair reporting during the month-long campaign from September 7 to October 6. The aim was to ensure that the public was informed of the political platforms, views and goals of the candidates in an unbiased manner.

The U.N. Development Program and the Asia Foundation developed and funded imaginative civic education programs on election-related themes such as Islam and women's participation in politics, secrecy of the vote, political rights, the purpose of government and how to choose a candidate. The BBC and the U.S. Radio Liberty along with Afghan radio, television and newspapers participated in the civic education efforts.

Street-theater companies performed plays in market places and public squares to show the importance and benefits of voting. The Afghan Films studios made movies about democracy that were screened before crowds around the country by mobile cinema vans loaded with projection equipment. Public-address speakers attached to the roofs of cars broadcast prerecorded messages or radio programs while parked in market places or driving through streets.

A nationwide survey of Afghanistan conducted in July revealed a high national awareness of the elections and signs of a growing sense of national identity and national unity. It also found that Afghans agree on ethnic pluralism in government, but there was less consensus on the role of women in society.

Khalilzad said the process of rebuilding Afghanistan is still in the early stages. He compared the task to running a 10-mile race, and the presidential election marks the three-mile point. He said the international community will not make the mistake of abandoning Afghanistan again, as it did in the 1990's after the withdrawal of Soviet forces.