(Note: In the following text, "billion" equals 1,000 million.)

Following is the text of the World Bank news release:

Donors Receive Estimates for Afghanistan's Reconstruction Ahead of Tokyo Conference

WASHINGTON, Tuesday, January 15, 2002 -- The reconstruction of Afghanistan is expected to cost about $15 billion over the next decade, according to a preliminary needs assessment prepared jointly by the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

The document was shared with the international donor community today, a week before they are hosted by the Government of Japan in Tokyo to discuss the report and make their commitments to a new start for war-ravaged Afghanistan. Japan forms the Steering Group for the Reconstruction of Afghanistan along with the European Union, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

"In the immediate months ahead, the Afghan administration will be under pressure to achieve quick results in its reconstruction efforts, meeting pressing needs in a way that gives the citizens a stake in peace and stability, and enhancing national integration," says the report. "This underlines the urgent need for up-front reconstruction activities and support from the international assistance community."

It is estimated that reconstruction will cost about $5 billion in the first two and a half years, the period spanning the current interim authority and the transitional government due to follow that in accordance with the Bonn Agreement. The 10-year figure for reconstruction costs has been put at $15 billion.

Part of the estimate for the first 30 months under Afghanistan's new arrangement will have to cover the country's recurrent costs as its authorities are unlikely to be able to collect taxes in the foreseeable future. It is estimated that the country will need about $1.8 billion to cover recurrent costs during this period, including the salaries of civil servants who lost their jobs during the Taliban era and who the interim authority plans to rehire. In earlier Afghan governments, about 43 percent of civil servants were women.

The document for discussion in Tokyo is a preliminary needs assessment, with further work on a more comprehensive needs assessment planned to take place in Afghanistan soon. The country's interim administration is expected to play a leadership role in drawing up the priorities for a reconstruction strategy based on the initial findings of the assessment. Senior officials in Kabul were consulted on the work done so far but time has been limited since the inauguration of the interim authority on December 22 last year. In addition, Afghan civil society has been consulted in an intense round of conferences and meetings since late November.

In the short term, the preliminary needs assessment expects these priorities to be focused on helping as many Afghans as possible reclaim their lives with access to health services, children -- especially girls -- going to school and adults returning to productive livelihoods, many of them in the fields and orchards. To this end, demining is expected to remain an important priority. There is a special focus in the report on a community-based approach to development and on the role of women in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, making space for them both in the economy and in the planning and decision-making processes. Another clear priority is drug control. It is expected that as the benefits of peace, security and the beginning of development activities are demonstrated, refugees will return home in larger numbers.

The challenge of Afghanistan's development ranges from the reconstruction of infrastructure to the delivery of social services and the creation of an environment which allows the private sector to flourish productively.