A Profile of Families Cycling on and off Welfare

By:
Lashawn Richburg-Hayes and Stephen Freedman
MDRC

April 2004

Submitted to:
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation

This report is available on the Internet at:
http://aspe.hhs.gov/hsp/cyclers04/

Printed Copy (in PDF format)

Contents

Executive Summary

Chapters

1. Introduction
2. What do we currently know about families who cycle on and off welfare?
   1. Leavers
   2. Recidivism
   3. Cyclers
3. Data, Samples, and Methods
   1. Background
      1. Connecticut's Jobs First Program
      2. Florida's Family Transition Program (FTP)
      3. Vermont's Welfare Restructuring Project (WRP)
      4. Urban Change
   2. Data
   3. Research Samples
      1. Pooling the research samples
      2. Characteristics of the full sample
      3. Comparison to the national welfare caseload
      4. Observation and follow-up periods
      5. Measuring welfare spells
      6. New recipients and ongoing recipients
   4. Program environments
   5. How do we define cyclers relative to other recipients?
      1. Defining cyclers, short-term, and long-term welfare recipients
      2. What is the incidence of cycling?
4. Who are the families and individuals who cycle on and off of welfare?
   1. What are the demographic characteristics of cyclers?
   2. Who is more likely to be a cycler?
   3. What are the patterns of welfare receipt and employment among cyclers?
      1. Do these differences persist when we control for variation in sample members' background characteristics?
   4. What are the employment and job characteristics of cyclers?
   5. What are the living arrangements and conditions of cyclers?
   6. What are the employment and welfare outcomes after cycling?
5. How have welfare reforms affected recipients?
   1. What is the impact of pre-PRWORA welfare reform policies on cycling?
   2. Has the incidence of cycling changed after PRWORA?
      1. Descriptive results
      2. How do patterns of cycling differ before and after PRWORA?
6. Discussion of results
7. References

Appendix: Calculating Regression-Adjusted Means

Tables

Table ES-1. Outcomes for Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients During Years 1 to 4 After Sample Intake ES-4
Table 1. Cycler Definitions and Estimates from Past Studies
Table 2. Report Sample Sizes
Table 3. Program Environments
Table 4. Percentage of Cylers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients During Years 1 to 4 After Sample Intake, by Site and Welfare Status at Sample Intake
Table 5. Selected Baseline Characteristics of Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and and Long-Term Recipients
Table 6. Odds Ratios for Becoming a Welfare Cycler Versus Becoming a Short-Term Recipient or a Long-Term Recipient During Years 1 to 4 After Sample Intake, For Selected Sample Member Characteristics and Environmental Conditions
Table 7. Patterns of Welfare Receipt, Employment, and Food Stamp Receipt for Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients During Years 1 and 4 After Sample Intake
Table 8. Differences Among Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients In Selected Employment and Public Assistance Outcomes During Years 1 to 4 After Sample Intake
Table 9. Measures of Employment for Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients, Recorded from Survey Responses at the End of the Observation Period
Table 10. Measures of Household Membership, Medical Coverage, Material Hardship, and Food Insecurity, For Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients, Recorded from Survey Responses at the End of the Observation Period
Table 11. Differences Among Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients In Selected Employment and Welfare Outcomes During Year 5 After Sample Intake
Table 12. Program Impacts on the Percentage of Sample Members Who Became Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients During Years 1 to 4 After Sample Intake
Table 13. Percentage of Sample Members in Cleveland and Philadelphia Who Became Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients During Years 1 to 4 by Timing of Sample Intake Month
Table A.1. Selected Characteristics of Sample Members, by Site
Table A.2A. Odds Ratios for Becoming a Welfare Cycler Versus Becoming a Short-Term Recipient During Years 1 to 4 After Sample Intake, for Selected Sample Member Chartacteristics And Environmental Conditions, by Site
Table A.2B. Odds Ratios for Becoming a Welfare Cycler Versus Becoming a Long-Term Recipient During Years 1-4 After Sample Intake, For Selected Sample Member Characteristics And Environmental Conditions, by Site

Figures

Figure ES-1. Percentage of Sample Members Who Became Cyclers in Years 1 to 4 After Sample Intake, by Site
Figure 1. Percentage of Sample Members Who Became Cyclers in Years 1 to 4 After Sample Intake, by Site
Figure 2. Percentage of Sample Members Who Became Cyclers by Site
Figure 3. Change Over Time in the Percentage of Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients, Among Sample Members That Received a Welfare Payment: January 1993 through December 2000
Figure 4. Percentage of Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients for Cleveland, by First Month of Welfare Receipt: January 1993 through December 1996
Figure 5. Change Over Time in the Percentage of Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients, Among Sample Members That Received a Welfare Payment: January 1993 through December 2001
Figure 6. Percentage of Cyclers, Short-Term Recipients, and Long-Term Recipients for Philadelphia, by First Month of Welfare Receipt: January 1993 through December 1997

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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS)

Last updated: 10/07/04