SPC AC 150050
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0750 PM CDT THU OCT 14 2004
   
   VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
   CEW 35 ENE MAI 25 NNE VLD 30 WNW JAX 30 ENE GNV 55 SSW GNV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BVE SEM BHM 35
   ENE HSV 25 SSE BWG OWB 30 N EVV BMG 10 ENE MIE FDY 35 N CLE ERI BFD
   30 ENE PSB 30 NE CHO 40 S CHO 50 N RWI 30 ENE ECG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
   FLORIDA AND SRN GEORGIA....
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK HAS
   DEVELOPED AROUND SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CLOSED LOW. THIS IS OCCURRING AS ANOTHER STRONG
   MID/UPPER JET STREAK DIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  AS
   UPSTREAM FEATURE CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS
   TONIGHT...CONSOLIDATING IMPULSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FORMATION OF
   HIGH AMPLITUDE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY 15/12Z.
   
   STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL SUPPORT
   AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...LACK OF
   WARMER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LACK OF MORE
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EVEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
   MEXICO...LIKELY WILL REMAIN LIMITING FACTORS.
   
   ...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS...
   MOISTURE...REFLECTED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 50F...IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ONGOING ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED IN BAND OF
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
   ADVECTION...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA...
   WHICH WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.  THOUGH VERY WEAK CAPE WILL MINIMIZE VIGOR
   OF UPDRAFTS...PRESENCE OF CONVECTION IN RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
   REGIME WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER
   MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...VAD WIND DATA SUGGEST WIND
   FIELDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AHEAD OF LINE
   ARE GENERALLY BELOW 30 KTS...SO LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
   SEVERE LIMITS SEEMS LOW.
   
   ...NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...
   MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
   ALONG AN AXIS EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY
   15/06Z.  ZONE OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS AXIS MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING...
   WHICH COULD POSE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BEST POTENTIAL MAY
   BE NEAR NORTHERN/WESTERN FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
   TO MODIFYING GULF AIR MASS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS...
   MODELS STILL SUGGEST INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
   FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL JET.  GIVEN
   CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH 70F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
   POINTS...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE.  THIS
   WILL COINCIDE WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES... WHICH
   MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS NEAR COASTAL AREAS.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/15/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0600Z