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VADM
Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr (Ret.) |
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Thank you, Rick (Dr. Rosen). Good afternoon, everyone. I’m delighted to be here. It’s an honor to address the American Meteorological Society’s 31st Broadcaster’s Conference. I want to thank Rick (Dr. Rosen, AMS president) for that kind introduction. And my congratulations to Rick, Ron McPherson (AMS executive director) and the AMS members for hosting this forum. This is certainly an impressive crowd. I see some familiar faces from the AMS Annual Conference in Orlando, Fla. last January. And some of you I recognize from television. Many of you I’m meeting for the first time. I thank all of you for being here. And I look forward to working with you. I’ll say right up front — I’m a strong believer in building partnerships and coalitions. As Rick said, I’ve had experience as a longtime Naval officer, and academic, with the Consortium for Oceanic Research and Education and (for the last six months) as part of President Bush’s administration at NOAA’s helm. In each of these posts, I’ve consistently found that working together is the best way to generate new ideas, develop strategies and — most important — get something done. Personal History I worked in D.C. before, and know both the budget process and learned my way around budget issues and the Hill. My Ph.D. is in Applied Mathematics, so I have a great appreciation for the sciences, for education; and I also have a deep respect and belief in plain hard work, accountability and remaining honest and transparent in operations. My main agenda at NOAA is to help NOAA best align itself and its mission to serve the emerging and changing world of tomorrow. SLIDE II We have a strategic mission at NOAA. Our job is to further the nation’s safety, welfare and commerce. We do this by observing the oceans we rely on for business and pleasure, the skies we depend on for travel and protection, and the weather we enjoy or whose effects we protect ourselves against. More precisely, NOAA’s mission is to describe and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, and conserve and manage wisely the nation’s coastal and marine resources to ensure sustainable economic opportunities. We have five line offices in NOAA to achieve our eclectic mission — The National Weather Service with which you are most familiar with; the National Marine Fisheries Service where we rebuild and maintain sustainable fisheries, promote the recovery of protected species, and protect and maintain the health of coastal marine habitats; the National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service where we ensure timely access to global data and run our nations weather satellites; the National Ocean Service where our mission is coastal and ocean stewardship, and protecting the environmental and economic health of our coastal and ocean resources; and our Oceanic and Atmospheric Research where the scientific research underlying all of our functions is conducted. The one prevailing theme: saving lives and property. We fulfill our mission today through providing the best weather forecasts and warnings possible, by continuing to improve on that performance, by continuing to expand our knowledge of the Earth’s fundamental climate processes, climate change, and relating that back to its ultimate effects on human life, human health, and the protection of not just the property of Americans — but our coasts, wheat fields, rivers, mountains and parks. Maybe even our way of life. We study and look for ways to mitigate the effects on earth of this most invasive species known as mankind. As we strive to understand enough to predict or perhaps more accurately to project farther into the future, with the inherent uncertainties involved in those forecasts and the calls for appropriate mitigating action, we rely on you to be able to communicate effectively the important information in terms the public will really understand. You are our translators. Ask any legislator on the Hill, ask your friends. Even though we think we’re talking in plain language most people’s eyes glaze over. Effectively reaching the public is where you excel. That’s why I am especially pleased to address, for the first time, you who are such critical partners to NOAA; and not just NOAA but really to the entire scientific community — federal and even non-federal. Like the Emergency Managers, our work at weather forecasting and environmental prediction is nearly meaningless without our partners who can effectively communicate with the American Public. We say repeatedly that the very best forecast, the best science, and the biggest computers are really useless if no one receives and understands the products we produce. So today, I intend to tell you about what we’re doing at NOAA to strengthen communication between our agency and weather broadcasters, and between you and the community at large. SLIDE III I consistently stress within NOAA the power of partnerships. Whether among Federal government agencies, between government and Universities, interlacing Federal, State and Local governments, partnerships with the private sector and industry, and with academia — all play very critical parts in the success of any truly meaningful endeavor by an agency. Issues like homeland security and global climate change cannot be addressed by any one entity. SLIDE IV As you may know, AMS is supporting an effort to expand and elevate the role of the TV Weathercaster to that of station scientist — the go-to person for solid reporting of breaking news in the science world. NOAA supports this effort. In this same vein, as part of a pilot project, we are partnering with the AMS, the National Environmental Education Training Foundation, StormCenter.Com, the Chesapeake Bay Program Office, EPA, the U.S. Forest Service and others to merge television weather reporting and environmental science into a state of the art program called an “Envirocast.” The purpose of this program is to bring user-friendly information about the environment into the weather forecasts, so viewers can understand how the environment affects their daily lives (i.e., like links between drought and water supply and drinking water or breathing hazard days and toxic health risks). I use this as an example — not as a commercial — to underscore what partnerships can achieve, and to say we are ready and anxious to do much more with many more of you. Some of
the topics weathercasters would begin to cover include:
The pilot project will cover some local Washington topics in August with issues like coastal development, habitat protection, watersheds and the growing vulnerability of an increasing coastal population to storms, floods and hurricanes. I understand the AMS’ intention is to have the majority of their seal-holders take environmental training (as part of their continuing education) so they in turn can communicate the importance of environmental issues to the public. I think this is a great start. However, there are many more scientific and environmental topics that need to be translated to the public, more than even could be covered through a nightly newscast. As new “station scientists” we will look to you increasingly among others to raise the level of public awareness of critical environmental issues. Now let me tell you about some of the exciting programs going on in NOAA where we have a particularly heavy reliance on you both to “get the word out” fast in terms of warning dissemination, and to translate the words of science and deliver a meaningful message to the public regarding other environmental information issues. SLIDE V First, and most familiar, are the “emergency” messages, including our weather and all hazard warnings. Through the Emergency Alert System, and through our automated warning creation and dissemination procedures, we issue lifesaving warnings of impending severe storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, flash floods, avalanches, winter storms, tsunamis, dangerous rip currents, marine warnings and even civil emergency messages. We can now issue highly specific warnings including a “pathcast” of a forecast storm or tornado track, marking its expected arrival times by town or city name. We do very well at tornado warning lead times, and we can quantifiably show that we are improving as we upgrade technology and improve scientific algorithms of storm structure and potential for danger. Our most obvious example, tornado lead times, essentially doubled with the advent of Doppler radar and subsequent science upgrades. We have similarly improved our track forecasts on hurricanes, working to lessen the economic impact of unnecessarily evacuating miles of coastline. We’ve introduced new hydrological science into our flood prediction system — allowing not only more accuracy, but a longer range forecast for river conditions. Each day, we provide you not only with text and graphic information on these events, but also satellite imagery of events around the world for use in your newscasts. Particularly with severe weather watches and warnings, we rely on our broadcast media partners to reach the American Public at home, in their cars and elsewhere keeping them alert to those rapidly changing conditions and impending severe weather. And, just as important, what to do and what action to take should the weather turn threatening. We’ve had a few tornadoes in the Washington area over the last several months, most recently we had one that went right through a town called La Plata, Md. The local broadcast media was alerting the public all day to that storm system as it came across the mountains in Virginia, especially since it had already spawned one tornado. I can’t say enough about how important that sustained effort is for public awareness and public safety. Our partnership was in perfect form that day, as it continues to be throughout the country during severe weather outbreaks. We truly work together to save lives. Our NOAA Weather Radio supports all hazards, not just weather hazards, through playing its supporting role to the Emergency Alert System. In today’s post-Sept. 11 world, that means in partnership with emergency management, we are ready (if needed) to carry all forms of emergency messages from tornadoes and hurricanes, to chemical spill warnings, to alerts of abducted children, to civil emergency messages. NOAA Weather Radio can continue to play its vital part of waking a sleeping public at 3 a.m. for any emergency. NOAA also supports the Office of Homeland Security through LIDAR mapping, supporting port security with observations, weather and wave forecasts and navigational charts, and atmospheric transportation and dispersion modeling. Again,
we rely on you to disseminate these warnings to the largest audience
through radio and television. Second, expanding well beyond the immediate weather warning, we look to you to help us reach audiences who may be affected in the future and inform them of their vulnerabilities — from such events as coastal erosion, slow moving coastal storms or flooding. In Louisiana (in the New Orleans area) we know we have a large area vulnerable to a hurricane or tropical storm strike. A storm surge or significant tropical rainfall could cause serious damage in that area — and without very comprehensive evacuation plans and mitigation strategies, they will remain in a highly vulnerable state. According to the State’s Emergency Managers, the levees that protect the city from flooding are also a flood threat themselves. Storm surge from a slow moving strong hurricane could create storm surge more than 30 feet high in a city already 6 feet below sea level on average. Approximately one million people live behind hurricane protection levees. Our NOAA Storm Surge Model (SLOSH) indicates that most levees offer protection from Category 1, and Category 2, and most fast moving Category 3 hurricanes. Overtopping of levees can occur in slow moving Category 3, Category 4, and Category 5 storms. Once over the levees, the city simply fills. Flood waters will have to be pumped out — which could take days to weeks. Pumping capacity is generally 1 inch of rainfall (area wide) the first hour, then a half inch of rainfall thereafter. High ground, +20 feett MSL, is more than 30 miles from New Orleans and 60 miles from many coastal communities. NWS/FEMA/COE studies indicate evacuation lead times range from 36 to 60 hours. Evacuation and awareness are critical. We look again to you to help the populous, to raise their awareness to the reality of a “someday” scenario, and move them to prepare for the day “someday” is “today.” And, in
your role as station scientists, you could help educate the public about
subjects like non-point source pollution. My guess is many of you here
are not familiar with the term. It is caused by runoff from natural
and human-made pollutants into our lakes, rivers and oceans, and even
our underground sources of drinking water. It could come from excess
fertilizers, construction sites, even pet wastes. Unlike pollution from
industrial and sewage treatment plants, it comes from many diffuse sources
such as:
Interestingly, Admiral Watkins of the Ocean Commission recently noted that testing of the runoff into the Gulf of Mexico has shown the presence of fertilizers uniquely used by two provinces in Canada— this stuff carries a long way. Atmospheric
deposition and hydromodification (acid rain) are also sources of non-point
source pollution.
Third, the Scientific community and NOAA have learned much about El Niño/La Niña, or the Southern Oscillation, and its effect on climate. So much so, that we have been able to improve markedly our skill score, or success rate, on our seasonal forecasts in years when there is a moderate to strong ENSO signal. What does this mean to America? Well, it depends on the strength of the signal. We can’t yet forecast specific mud slides on specific days or weeks in southern California, but we can indicate increasing likelihoods for those kinds of impacts over a seasonal time frame. We successfully predicted the major El Niño of 1997-1998 which had significant impacts. We are now forecasting a weak to moderate El Niño for 2002-2003. El Niño conditions typically recur every four to five years and can last up to 12 to 18 months. The last El Niño of 1997-1998 was followed by three years of La Niña. The first signs of an El Niño are an unusual warming of the water in the tropical Pacific Ocean — which results in rising air and convection. Once mature, typical El Niño effects include a drier monsoon season for Southwestern US, a drier fall and winter in the Pacific Northwest, wetter than normal conditions from Louisiana to Florida and also in central and southern California if the El Niño is strong. Late fall and winter become warmer than usual in the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. The impacts of the 1997-1998 El Niño were estimated to be on the order of $10 billion in the United States alone, $3 billion of which was in the agricultural sector. We can mitigate these losses by preparing for the expected conditions. In California, prior to the 1997-1998 El Niño, EMs and FEMA spent an estimated $165 million preparing for storms and heavy rain. This resulted in losses much less than those incurred during the previous strong El Niño of 1982-1983. City planners feel these actions mitigated the damages in the amount of approximately $1 billion. Economists estimate that improved El Niño forecasts in the U.S. are worth nearly $300 million annually. Worldwide, a lower bound estimate of annual economic benefits of improved forecasts for agriculture is $450 to $500 million per year. We need to work closely with emergency managers and with you in the media to continue clarifying what we do and don’t know, and ensure we take appropriate precautions when our certainty factors are high enough. When the time is appropriate and certainties are great enough that impacts will be felt, property owners can be advised to repair or improve structures where rainfall is expected to be excessive, gas and oil producers advised to adjust production, water managers to adjust stream flows, farmers to adjust crop planting, growing and storage decisions, and in our own fisheries we can make adjustments to offset negative effects. Wetter or drier, warmer or cooler, we rely on you to help us help america to understand and exploit its newfound scientific discoveries. Slide VIII Fourth, on February 14 (Valentines Day) of this year the President came to NOAA to announce the Clear Skies and Global Climate Change initiatives from our campus in Silver Spring, Md. The new Global Climate Change initiative seeks to reduce greenhouse gas intensity by 18 percent over the next decade. It calls for the United States to provide funding for high-priority areas of climate change science over the next five year, in order to provide reliable scientific data for decision making to policy makers. NOAA, America and the World had a success story from a similar effort to study the ozone hole. Once scientists, actually it was our own Dr. Susan Solomon, discovered the real cause, CFCs, you in the media went to work educating the public about the harm these compounds have caused and the Federal Government went about controlling their use. We now have evidence these actions have produced a recovery in the ozone levels. Global climate change is a much larger issue, however, and the answers already have many layers. We must first build on the success we had with shorter term climate forcing, like El Niño. From there we can move on to decadal phenomena, and longer. To understand and diagnose global scale climate, we must first take a complete view of the current and changing conditions of the entire globe. We must take the global “pulse of the planet,” if you will. We must find a way to monitor its changes over time over large areas. To do so, we need a global observing system. Existing systems are not enough, we need data from the equatorial pacific — like what we receive from our TAO/TRITON array only over a much more expansive area. Basically, we need observations for the following reasons: the upper 10 feet of the ocean has the same heat capacity as the entire atmosphere. That means it can hold as much heat as all the air surrounding the globe. Therefore, it has an enormous influence on both short- and long -term air temperature changes. Likewise, the ocean holds a significant amount of carbon dioxide, which can influence future atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas. Observing and then collecting this data and incorporating it into models, analogous to weather models, is critical to our being able to predict the future climate — whether El Niño, decadal changes or other even longer term projections. Therefore, the accuracy of future climate forecasts and projections — and understanding global climate change — will depend on improving the number of our ocean observations (especially of temperature, salinity, and currents) within the upper layers of the ocean. We look to you in the media again for help in explaining this somewhat complicated subject to the American public. To help the farmer in the heartland understand the importance to his/her crops of an ocean observation in the equatorial pacific, and the overall importance of closely monitoring our planet’s health. Since the analysis — understanding and forecasting of our climate and natural environment does not respect any national boundaries — another real challenge is to link together with our international partners to develop one integrated observation plan for the atmosphere, ocean and land that everyone can support. This means full and open sharing of data between nations, including making the data available within sufficient time to be of operational use. We need to develop one integrated observation plan for the atmosphere, ocean and land which everyone can support. The Global climate Observing System (GCOS) and Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), working with the Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) Partners and others, have developed international consensus on overall needs. There is still much to be done. On June 11, I addressed the Executive Council of the world Meteorological Organization in Geneva, where I told them of the President’s budget proposal for FY03 and its $18 million request for new climate research funding for NOAA, including $8 million to improve the global observing system. As I told them, our greatest challenge will be to develop a coherent plan, which integrates space and in-situ observations and delivers in a timely way. We need to convey the importance and interrelation of these activities to the American Public. Again, that’s where we often rely on you. Fifth, one large part of climate initiative will be to ensure the American public and industry is able to make full use of these new data and newfound climate knowledge. This means opening a new area of Climate Services beyond what is currently available. We will work with you as we move ahead into this new territory to ensure the greatest benefit from the investment can be achieved by all. SLIDE IX Lastly, another new arena for the meteorological community is the area of air quality forecasting. Globally, this is coming to be recognized as a serious issue, spawning new scientific studies in places (like Mexico City) and a new commitment on the part of policymakers to institute measures to address the problems. In America, air quality is being taken seriously as a matter of human health, and that is part of public safety and part of our mission, as well. Air quality
forecasting is part of NOAA’s mandate to provide a solid scientific
climate service. Again we are working with our partners to ensure the
best approach for providing the American public with information it
needs to ensure health and safety. Headline story....I just returned from the NOAA M launch... [personal reflection] Fires... Heat Index... In closing I’d just like to say we have no real way of counting how many lives have been saved by your broadcasts of severe weather warnings and NOAA weather radio. But we know those numbers are significant. Each year we receive hundreds of stories of how NOAA Weather Radio has saved lives, and timely warnings disseminated by you have saved countless hundreds or thousands beyond that. We do know our NOAA Search and Rescue Satellite helped rescue 166 people in 2001, and six in one incident off of North Carolina in January 2002. SARSAT as it is called is often an unsung hero. Thank you for your time today. At NOAA, we look forward to strengthening the partnership we have with all of you and your colleagues. We will continue to work to improve on the weather and warning services we provide. Let’s work together to continue improving on the excellent warning services we provide and to expand that to increased public awareness of an array of environmental issues important to our communities, our country and the world. Thank you.
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