Back ||NOAA Home 2003 American Meteorological Society Conference "The Need for a Global Observing System" Vice Admiral (Ret.) Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., U.S. Navy Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator Long Beach, Calif. February 11, 2003 Good Evening. I am delighted to have the opportunity to join you at today's session, and to participate in the 83rd AMS Conference. I am especially honored to be one of your "headliners" on the AMS Conference web page - and since I care very much about the topic for today, I thank you for attending this session and welcome your engagement on the topic of my remarks. We have several distinguished visitors here. Dr. Obasi, Director General of the World Meteorological Organization; Dr. Marburger, Science Advisor to the President. The AMS and the weather community play an important role on the international scene and have a special place in our hearts at NOAA — especially since over the past year or so we have had the great privilege of having one of your own — former AMS President, Dr. Jim Mahoney's expertise as Assistant Secretary at NOAA. Among his many duties, he has focused on leading the interagency plan on Climate Research... His experience and breadth of knowledge is invaluable to us at NOAA. Topics of Discussion Today, I will discuss a few things of importance to NOAA. First, I will give you an update on recent strategic planning at NOAA. Second I will outline NOAA's broad vision for the future of global environmental monitoring of the Earth and third, share some thoughts on how we can build upon observation efforts to achieve a Global Observing System. For some months now, I have been talking about the need for a Global Observing System — and it is now time to flesh out some of the details about NOAA's vision for what that would entail. But first, I know that you are interested in hearing an update on NOAA's priorities and plans for the near future, so before I step onto my Global Observing System "soapbox" let me share a few NOAA highlights. NOAA Update — Mission The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration of the United States Department of Commerce has a mission to understand and predict the environment, and manage our nations resources, in order to protect lives and property, enhance commerce, and provide information that serves as the basis for a healthy economy. NOAA's work directly touches $2.7 trillion of our nation's economy. In large measure, we rely on advances in technology for our observing and operational systems, management tools and capabilities to better understand and predict environmental change...and ultimately, to aid decision—making at all levels of our society, both in the public and private sectors. For over 30 years, our geostationary and polar—orbiting satellites, along with other assets, have provided critical Earth information on weather, extreme events, natural disasters, climate and other environmental phenomena that has saved lives and reduced economic losses. In addition, the unprecedented availability of timely and accurate environmental information has greatly benefited investment and management decisions for many sectors of our economy, including energy, utilities, agriculture, transportation, municipalities, and other industries. At NOAA, we recognize that we have clearly moved into a new era for Earth Science. Over time, our collective understanding of the "Earth system" has increased to the point that the boundaries between disciplines have blurred and the need to understand and manage at the ecosystem level has emerged. NOAA is a unique agency that deals with the whole Earth System. Our collective challenge now is to predict environmental change across the globe. With this in mind, NOAA has undergone a new Strategic Planning process to meet the environmental monitoring and management challenges of the future. Our new strategic focus is on four cross—cutting NOAA priorities based on 2 principles — which is to reduce the organizational focus on "stovepipes" and look across our functions and tie them together: Ecosystem Management Climate Variability & Change (to better plan and respond for our collective future). Weather & Water information (permeates everything we do at NOAA) Safe & Efficient Commerce and Transportation The planning process has been conducted in an open way that has included thousands of our stakeholders across the country. We are committed to keep moving on this and meet the needs of our stakeholders. Our Strategic Planning team has provided a number of copies for you at this conference, so I encourage you to pick one up at the NOAA exhibit. For the purpose of highlighting the value of NOAA, I want to share some details of the Fiscal Year 2004 requested budget increases in a couple of our priority areas aimed at improving our services to the nation. The importance of NOAA to our nation's economy and the public benefit is reflected in the 6% growth here — and we attribute much of this to the work we have done on the Hill to defend these numbers — and your help will continue to be invaluable to sustaining a budget for NOAA that will allow us to meet our collective needs: For Environmental Monitoring and Prediction we have asked for: $1.3 million for The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX). It is a global atmospheric research program designed to double the rate of improvement of global weather forecasts and to make reliable forecasts up to 14 days ahead $3.7 million for NEXRAD radar technology and systems that will result in increased tornado detection accuracy from 68 percent to 75 percent and improve tornado warning lead time from 11 minutes to 14 minutes by FY 2007. $31.0 million overall increase for our Polar Orbiting Satellites and next generation National Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program. $50.2 million increase for the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to support continued post launch requirements, the continued procurement of GOES —N series satellites, instruments, ground systems, and systems support. For Climate Change, Research, Observations & Services we are asking for an increase of $16.9 million over a base funding of $279 million, for a total of $295 million. This increase of $16.9 million is focused on 5 key areas: $6.3 million for Global Ocean Observations that would document long—term trends in sea—level change, ocean carbon sources and sinks, and heat uptake and release by the oceans to better understand long—term climate variability. $5 million aimed at the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle, focused on North America, to define carbon dioxide sources and sinks in and around the U.S., in order to gauge the effectiveness of future carbon emission and sequestration strategies. $3.5 million for Climate Change Computing to enhance computing capability by 1/3 for better simulations that address policy and business issues, such as verifying models against paleoclimatic (historical) records and exploring links between climate and extreme events for better seasonal forecasts — the focus here will be to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey. $1 million for Reducing Uncertainties in Climate Scenarios for Aerosols and Tropospheric Ozone. This will help to measure the distribution of soot and related aerosols and better quantify links between climate and air quality. And finally, $1.1 million for the Climate Change Science Program Office to support the nation's interagency climate and global change program. This will ensure that the benefits of scientific research are applied to climate change policy issues and decision support. Many of you know the Commerce Department has been designated to lead the $1.8 billion administration—wide climate research program that spans 14 agencies. These modest increases to our climate budget will help NOAA continue to build upon its legacy of excellence in monitoring weather and climate conditions and will further enhance climate research. I will not be going into any detail on that here, since Dr. Mahoney will be speaking about the Climate Research Initiative on Thursday, so I encourage you to go and listen to him. GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM — INTRO Now on to the primary topic I want to talk about today — the need for a Global Observing System. Surely, as we look back over the past century we can see that many significant advances in Earth Science were preceded by improvements in observational capability (we need data — good data). When we talk about a global observing system, I know that for many of you, it seems like a climate system. Climate is a major beneficiary that drives the increasing need to build a global network — it is not only a global science issue, but it is also a global policy and political issue — but, as I said before, climate is only one part of a true Global Observing system. In order to fully "take the pulse of Mother Earth" such a system must encompass physical, chemical, and biological parameters— carbon cycle, water cycle, open ocean nutrients, atmospheric chemistry, chlorophyll, and even space weather. These are essential to fill—in the data gaps for more accurate modeling, and ultimately, to provide the information products necessary for ecosystem management. What I am talking about is an integrated global information and data management system that provides the foundation for sound decisions. This would require that we go beyond weather and climate for inclusion of observations of the entire Earth System. A global observing system needs to be a step up from today — the pieces are in place. But we need to think beyond climate — think beyond the pieces and think about the actual network. ACHIEVEMENTS We have seen many great achievements in space exploration and space program applications over the past 40 years — not only manned space flight, but also the dramatic advancement of the Earth Sciences. Meteorology is one of those sciences that has shown tremendous growth as a consequence, and the value of that increased knowledge when applied to the public benefit has been incalculable. We see evidence of this every day in the amount of "TV face—time" meteorology gets in America today — this is unsurpassed in the world of science! The question we all face now, across our disciplines, is what will our collective legacy be over the next 40—50 years? What further benefits will we leave for our grandchildren and will we match the great achievements of those who came before us? If we can manage to organize ourselves to put in place a true Global Observing System, then we can match those achievements of previous decades and pave the way for improved understanding of this planet we live on....I like to "steal" the expression used by my friend NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe at our sister agency, where he describes our planet as a "lifeboat in space" — and it is one that we're not likely to get off of soon! We are all here — so we should get the questions right up front... Perhaps the greatest challenge we typically face as humans is to organize ourselves. Often, it is not just a science or technology challenge, but it is people, politics, and institutions. Throughout history, those groups that have organized the best have achieved great things. The AMS has great stature and credibility...I often point to the disciplines of astronomy and physics as examples of communities that rallied toward a common goal and achieved great things — the Hubble telescope, the linear accelerator... I think we in the Earth Science community can organize in the same way. The Earth Science community needs to enter a new phase of cooperation to organize, build, and connect the network of nodes, sensors, and communications that will comprise a Global Observing System. This means that no one entity can do this alone and we need the satellite and in-situ communities speaking together, and assimilating their data. It is for this reason that we could say we are entering a "new decade of observations." Now, within the Earth Sciences, individual disciplines have certainly made some tremendous advances. You are aware of the instruments, sensors, models, and computers we use today to predict El Nino cycles. We have achieved a level of sophistication that allows us to accurately forecast general seasonal winter and summer conditions 3 — 6 months in advance. This has been invaluable to business travelers, individual households, risk managers, and financial managers. It has been 20 years, but it was a big effort and the major investments in weather prediction — and the observing platforms that provide the data — allowed us to reach our current capabilities to describe El Nino. So, we have a level of sophistication in place today — but we need to build upon these pieces to diagnose significant climate effects. Even so, it is not enough. For as much as we know about the Earth's climate system — and we have achieved a significant base of knowledge thanks to national and international partnerships — there remain critical uncertainties. And these uncertainties derive from the incomplete nature of our global observation systems. It is well known that we have many "blind spots" around the globe where we are missing data. So, to do this, as in the case of El Nino, we have a compelling rationale to build from existing infrastructure that has been developed piecemeal by separate national, institutional, and international partnerships over the years and move together towards an integrated global information and data management system for the Earth. Science has shown leadership in many areas and addressed many technical issues. We cannot do everything or please everyone, but let's pull together what we have now and do something! INSTITUTIONAL EXAMPLES It is not only individual disciplines that have made great strides in laying a foundation for where we need to go, but institutions as well. We do not need new institutions, they are in place: The World Meteorological Organization manages the World Weather Watch to coordinate space and in situ observations for weather forecasting, and the Global Atmosphere Watch to provide long—term observations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the International Oceanographic Commission which houses the Global Ocean Observing System or GOOS, which has worked for observations, modelling and analysis of marine and ocean environments to support operational ocean services worldwide; and with WMO houses JCOMM which is the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology; the Global Climate Observing System or GCOS has been working to upgrade and expand the global network of measurements of climate; 41 leading space agencies and other organizations around the world have joined under the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites or CEOS to coordinate space assets and resources more efficiently; and all of these entities are members of the global effort to bring satellite and in-situ data and information together under the Integrated Global Observing Strategy or IGOS, which has organized under various themes — oceans, water cycle, Coasts/coral reefs — to study the full range of current and planned observations, identify gaps, and move from research to operational environmental prediction. What we've seen in these multiple examples are a variety of communities working to coordinate existing platforms within their field to improve their collective understanding. These platforms include: the Climate Reference Network for near—surface air temperature and precipitation measures for long—term climate, Automated Surface Observing System for fully automated weather observations, environmental and space weather satellites, seismic observing stations, Doppler radar to provide wind information for severe storms, the PORTS system for safe navigation, Argo climate ocean profiling floats, TAO/TRITON floats to measure ocean—atmosphere interaction, the COOPS network to determine Great Lakes sea levels, and Deep—Ocean Assessment and reporting of Tsunamis. GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE While, these individual platforms have resulted in great benefits to all of us, it is now time to optimize these separate systems. This is fundamental and calls for a 5—step process to guide us: 1) Together, we orient ourselves by taking an inventory of existing network locations that observe a particular parameter; 2) Then we identify requirements that are not being met by current observing systems; (really, the world's requirements evolve and change just as individual nations and constituencies); 3) Next, we build the additional components into the system to fill the gaps, and 4) Then we develop the products and services that meet the needs of decision—makers and managers. 5) Finally, in the long run, it is the data management system (collection, distribution, archiving) that is necessary to tie together separate data formats, various space and in situ data collection systems, and different policies regarding access and sharing of data. Databases from current and past programs are neither complete, accessible or sufficiently quality controlled. Large observational gaps in space and time are the norm according to international science groups. We need to combine on—going national efforts with international cooperation to develop data standards and formats so that data can truly be used on a global basis for research and operations. By the way, that is another issue that we could talk about at length — the transition from research to operations — but I will save that for another day. NOAA's NEW APPROACH What I am really talking about here is how to work from a total systems perspective — that is, how to best develop a system of systems. This is something that NOAA is actively pursuing under a cross—management approach. In response to this problem, a cross—NOAA team undertook a review to centrally plan and integrate all observing systems within NOAA. They found that we did not have a well—coordinated observing system architecture with a single comprehensive requirements process. The NOAA team found that 99 separate observing systems are measuring 521 different environmental parameters — at a sub—optimal level. Only when we identify where systems are duplicative, can we target the gaps in our observations. Once we know where the gaps are, we can put platforms and sensors in place to fill them. For example, we can use the same buoy for more measurements — have it pull "double duty." The sensors on those platforms can be flexible and we need to look at all systems. If we have a single system, fully wired and networked together without duplication, in the long run we have the freedom to place on it whatever sensors we need, to meet the scientific, political, and social imperatives of the time. From there, the data are easier to process, distribute, and archive in an accessible and affordable manner to all customers. Now, I raise this issue because I am certain that NOAA is not the only agency that struggles with this problem. The same can probably be said of any agency, nationally or internationally, or any group of agencies, such as the ones I listed before. I also do not say this to imply that NOAA's vision defines the best method for everyone. Really, the strength of the approach that I have outlined... setting requirements, eliminating duplication, filling in the gaps, meeting imperatives, and developing sound products... comes from dialogue and communication between the service provider — organizations like NOAA (and there are many others), and partnerships with users like yourselves — industry, government at all levels, and academia. That allows us to improve our business processes and to improve our products that in turn benefit our partners and the citizenry. Partnerships are what count here, which brings me to my next point — a planned Earth Observation Summit. It takes you, the science community, and inclusive leadership to focus on what we can do to take remote and in situ data and make use of both for better information. GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM — EARTH OBSERVATION SUMMIT I have announced in previous months an Earth Observation Summit to be held on July 31st 2003 in Washington DC. The objective is to bring it to the political level — to bring together high—level science advisors and ministers of the G—8 and other nations to develop an optimized global observing system for wide use, with international support, and strategies for commitment by governments. If the discussions at the Earth Observation Summit are successful, we will succeed in taking national ideas and combine them with international ideas to form a coalition that will make serious commitments to improving the global observations of terrestrial, ocean, and atmospheric phenomena around the world. I hope that you will support this process. We need to be sure and not skip the Life Sciences...organize the people who are interested in solving real problems, and take the science to the next level. I am "bullish" that the opportunities are there. This makes me think about an analogy to my previous role in the military — what we need is to collectively find our "Battle Rhythm" — that is, we need to attack the enemy early and fast before they expect it...and the "enemy" here is time, poverty and population growth, and growing demand for scarce resources across the globe. We need to improve our capability in understanding the Earth, otherwise we will see no advances in answering these important questions. The more we can piece together the air/sea/land interaction puzzle, the better we will be able to shape the critical decisions of policy leaders, businesses, and the public. This is especially crucial in this age where our economies are increasingly global in nature. Ultimately, this will require agreement on data sharing, and high quality data management systems to link observing system outputs to the decision—making process. CONCLUSION Achieving accurate and useful environmental observations of our planet and its complex systems is no small task. Only by building upon the significant time and talents of past and current efforts will we be able to realize the next big step in Earth Science. This will require your commitment and your expertise. That means also the expertise of scientists from different fields within the Earth Sciences community working toward our common goal. A goal for a fully integrated global information and data management system. In closing, I invite you to engage with us and other Partners on this topic. We face a test for what we can do for our future. NOAA is committed to working on this together with you and our partners around the globe and I look forward to working with you in leaving our grandchildren a rich inheritance of expanded knowledge, understanding, and management ability of Mother Earth, our "lifeboat in space". Thank you for your partnership and for your participation in AMS and this conference.