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Canadian
Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
38th Annual Congress
“Strategies for Stewardship – Development of a Global
Observation System”
Plenary Session
Wednesday, June 2, 2004
8:35 a.m. – 9:20 a.m.
Introduction
Thank you. Marc Denis, for that kind introduction, and good morning
to you all. I am delighted to have the opportunity to join you for
this 38th Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic
Society. I’d like to especially acknowledge Geoff Strong, Chair
of the Science Program Committee, for putting together such an important
and interesting session. In reading through the robust agenda for
this meeting, I was struck by the diversity of topics represented
by such a distinguished group of scientists. Another thought occurred
to me while scanning the list of presentations that is pertinent to
the topic I will address this morning – the unquestionable link
between the work that you do and the observation of the processes
of the Earth.
Before
I begin, I would also like to recognize the significant contributions
Canada is making in the field of Earth observations: the US enjoys
several strong partnerships with Canada in the fields of Great Lakes
research, drought and invasive species research, RADARSAT, to name
only a few.
Canada
has also played a key role in the ongoing international activities
towards the development of a comprehensive global system of Earth
observations. Canada’s active engagement and our two countries’
collaboration on observations have proven invaluable in providing
a unified North American input into the process.
Development
of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
Nearly
two years ago, I had the pleasure of addressing the World Summit on
Sustainable Development (WSSD) event on the Global Information for
Sustainable Development project. After my presentation, I had the
opportunity to hear about the different applications for the data
and information provided by the GISD, and the extraordinary amount
of international collaboration for making scientifically sound public
policy decisions.
As you
all know, the results of WSSD charged the participating countries
with fostering strengthened cooperation and coordination among global
observing systems and research programs for integrated global observations.
In the following year, the G8 ministers meeting at Evian also issued
a Science and Technology Action Plan calling on the nations of the
G8 to strengthen cooperation on global observations.
Earth
Observation Summit I
Heeding that call, in July of last year, the United States hosted
34 countries and 20 international organizations at the first-ever
Earth Observation Summit at the State Department in Washington, DC.
This meeting marked an important first-step in bringing the nations
of the world together for the purpose of establishing a comprehensive
Earth observing system. The heads of national delegations participating
in the summit agreed to a declaration that called for a commitment
to developing a comprehensive, coordinated Earth observation system
built on existing systems.
The declaration
reaffirmed the need for Earth systems data and information for sound
decision-making, set forth principles for long-term cooperation in
meeting these goals and committed to improving Earth observation systems
and scientific support in developing countries. It also established
the ad hoc Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to prepare a ten-year
implementation plan for a comprehensive, coordinated Earth observation
system.
The sense
of cooperation and goodwill was palpable – not exactly a small
feat when dealing with such a large and diverse group of international
partners. As an excellent example of the goodwill present in the room,
Canada’s Environment Minister, David Anderson announced the
commitment of his nation to make its climate data – dating back
to 1840 – freely available. This desire to put actions behind
words is what makes Canada such a valuable partner in this venture
and the most important reason why I believe we will ultimately achieve
success.
Group on Earth Observations (GEO)
In the nine months between the first and second Earth Observation
Summits, the GEO gathered four times around the world, meeting very
aggressive schedules for outputs, and, sometimes, “making it
up as we go.” I have the distinct pleasure of serving as one
of four intergovernmental Co-Chairs of GEO, along with Mr. Akio Yuki,
Deputy Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
(MEXT), Japan; Mr. Achilleas Mitsos, Director-General for Research,
European Commission; and Dr. Rob Adam, Director of Science & Technology,
Ministry of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology, South Africa.
One of
the defining characteristics of GEO is that membership is open to
any country that expresses an interest and designates a point of contact.
Participating countries are not bound by geographic characteristics,
population, wealth, or world status – only by a desire to be
a part of the future. This philosophy has caused GEO to continue to
grow and expand and we also have participation by a growing number
of international organizations that have observations and/or an Earth
science focus. We want everyone to have a seat at this table because
that is the only way to ensure that we meet our ultimate goal of complete
global coverage.
We have
accomplished much in the first leg of our mission:
- At
GEO 1 in Washington, we approved Terms of Reference and established
five working subgroups to address Architecture, Data Utilization,
User Requirements & Outreach, Capacity Building and International
Cooperation components of the Plan.
- At
GEO 2 in Baveno, we received initial reports from those subgroups,
and reached consensus on a societal benefit / user focus for the
Plan. Initial discussions also began on an international cooperation
mechanism for post-GEO implementation of the Plan.
- At
GEO 3 in Cape Town, the Framework document and accompanying Communiqué
were fully negotiated and prepared for distribution to countries
for comment/clearance. In addition, GEO agreed that each Co-Chair
would designate a representative for the Implementation Plan Task
Team, to serve as the Co-Chair’s point person organizing the
writing of the Plan.
- At
GEO 4 in Tokyo, we held final discussions on the negotiated text
of the Framework and Communiqué, which would be presented
to ministers at the second summit, and received the first reports
of the Implementation Plan Task Team. Discussions also continued
on a governance structure for a successor mechanism to GEO, and
we decided to hold a special session this summer to come to agreement
on that issue.
Earth
Observation Summit II
Earth Observation Summit II in Tokyo this past April welcomed 44 ministers
and heads of national delegations, along with 26 international organizations.
The convening of the Tokyo Summit delivered on the charge from the
initial Washington meeting to have a Framework for the 10-Year Plan
agreed to by Spring of 2004. This Framework for what is now called
the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) focuses on
the benefits of a global system, noting current key areas of observations
and pointing out the shortcomings of our existing systems. The Framework
also offers a picture of what GEOSS will look like:
GEOSS
will be:
- Comprehensive,
by including observations and products gathered from all components
required to serve the needs of participating members;
- Coordinated,
in terms of leveraging resources of individual contributing members
to accomplish this system, whose total capacity is greater than
the sum of its parts; and
Sustained, by the collective and individual will and capacity of
participating members.
The Framework
states that the GEOSS will be a distributed system of systems, addressing
data utilization challenges, and facilitating and building-on current
and new capacity building efforts. Specific outcomes of an operational
GEOSS are identified in the document including enabling global, multi-system
information capabilities for:
- Disaster
reduction, including response and recovery
- Integrated
water resource management
- Ocean
monitoring and marine resource management
- Air
quality monitoring and forecasting
- Biodiversity
conservation, and
- Sustainable
land use management
Other
outcomes include, but certainly are not limited to, the tracking of
invasive species, global and regional climate monitoring (on annual,
decadal and longer-time scales), improving our in situ system coverage
and integration and better meeting the needs of the developing world.
GEO
5
As I mentioned earlier, there will be a special session of the group
to discuss governance structures, but I am pleased to report that
the next meeting of GEO is scheduled for November 28-29th in Ottawa.
Speaking on behalf of the United States and as a GEO Co-Chair, I greatly
appreciate Canada’s generous offer to host this next very important
meeting.
In continuing
with the aggressive pace we have set thus far, we have much to do
in the upcoming months before GEO 5.
At our
last meeting, the Co-Chairs recommended, and the GEO agreed to a suite
of three documents to be presented to the third and final summit next
year:
- The
10-Year Implementation Plan [negotiated by member countries]–
about 10 pages in length, mapping out the key principles of GEOSS
- The
Technical Blueprint [not negotiated]– a fuller description
of the details of the plan and the foundation for the Implementation
Plan
- The
Communiqué of the Third Earth Observation Summit [negotiated
by member countries]– a one-page ministerial statement announcing
the adoption and approval of the 10 Year Implementation Plan.
The
Ottawa meeting is a critical step in our process – it is at
this meeting that we will fully negotiate the Implementation Plan
and Communiqué for distribution to countries. In addition,
we will be reviewing and providing direction to the writing teams
for completion of the Technical Blueprint. The period between GEO5
and the final Summit in 2005 is only about 75 days, and that includes
the winter holiday season, so achieving consensus and some degree
of finality by the time we leave Ottawa is essential to our success.
I’m looking forward to returning to Canada in November for a
productive GEO 5 session.
Earth
Observation Summit III
The third and ultimate summit will be hosted by the European Commission
and is slated to take place in Brussels, Belgium in mid-February 2005,
leaving us just under a year to finalize our task of completing the
10-Year Implementation Plan. The schedule is compressed; the task
is daunting, but the enthusiasm of GEO over the course of the first
phase of our effort has been encouraging. There’s an ancient
Chinese proverb that translates: “The person who says it cannot
be done should not interrupt the person doing it.” That seems
to be the mindset of this group, and I am confident we will meet our
2005 goal.
I’d
like to turn now for a few moments and talk about why I believe the
support and enthusiasm for GEO and GEOSS continues to grow: primarily,
our ability to identify tangible examples of how the world will benefit
from a better understanding of Earth.
Environmental,
Societal and Economic Benefits of a Comprehensive Earth Observation
System
Canadian Prime Minister Martin was recently in Washington DC to meet
with President Bush, and in a side-event, made some comments that
are pertinent to the work of GEO. The Prime Minister mentioned that
we need to stop blaming our international mechanisms for not working
– we are those organizations. In referencing the G20 meeting
held several years ago to address the Asian financial crisis, he noted
that, while scripted meetings are important, much work can be done
by bringing the right people around the table without scripts to address
a problem. He recommended identifying an international challenge and
bringing ministers to the table to achieve results. The global observation
initiative is just such an effort that will flourish primarily due
to the enormous benefits that may be realized.
And we
do have a good group of the right people around the table, with an
open invitation to all interested countries. GEO, which began last
August with 34 countries plus the European Commission, is steadily
growing, largely due to interest from the developing world. At the
Tokyo meeting, we had grown to 47 countries (plus the European Commission),
with 29 international organizations adding their expertise to the
mix.
We have
generated a great deal of political will in support of this effort
and it is imperative to this process that we maintain it. Highlighting
the human dimension and the benefits to society from a comprehensive
system will be the key. At the third meeting of the Group on Earth
Observations in Cape Town in February, Deputy Minister of Science
and Technology Sonjica noted in her keynote remarks that this effort
is dedicated to “finding solutions to human problems.”
As you
in this room well know, a comprehensive understanding of weather and
climate is an integral part of the GEOSS equation - but only a part.
In the US, we are working at the national level to develop a plan
for an interagency observation strategy to understand weather and
climate, but also recognizing other tangible outcomes, which are global
in nature, as well. These outcomes, based on solving human problems,
also make up the focus of GEOSS.
I often
think of the proverb that says “Where there is no vision, the
people perish” as an effective way to communicate the need for
a global observation system. Clearly, in our current state we are
operating somewhat blindly and as those of you in the weather community
especially well know, our blindness may be costing lives. Unfortunately,
such esoteric reasoning does not hold up to the scrutiny of the American
taxpayer and I’m sure the Canadian ones would feel the same.
Therefore, we must focus on the tangible benefits that affect people
on a daily basis.
I’ll
give you a few examples:
Agriculture
[Canadian drought]
A recent
article by the Associate Press noted that this year, British Columbia
may face its worst drought since the Great Depression. This will affect
planting and harvesting decisions, put serious restraints on water
use, and could likely cause a more active forest fire season. I don’t
have global figures on costs associated with drought in front of me,
but estimates of costs in the US range from $6 to $8 billion annually.
But what
if we knew years in advance that these patterns would be occurring
and could take the necessary precautions to mitigate the effects?
Understanding
the El Nino/La Nina patterns have allowed us to save millions of dollars
in the US alone. Worldwide benefits to agriculture due to El Nino
forecasts are at least $450 to $550 million per year. As an example,
crop planting decisions, seed selection, fertilizer application, etc.,
can be adjusted to reduce vulnerability to abnormal weather conditions,
making both producers and consumers better off. It also may be possible
to adjust storage of crop inventories in anticipation of changed yields
due to El Niño.
A comprehensive
system of Earth observations may just give us the rest of the missing
pieces to that puzzle, allowing us to predict and plan for droughts
and other phenomena affecting our agricultural outputs.
Health
[Malaria and Ebola research; Air Quality forecasting]
The health
of our citizens will also benefit from an integrated system of observations
that will be used for novel applications such as disease tracking
and prediction. These projects have already begun, but are still in
their infancy. Take for instance the following two examples:
Malaria
killed more than a million people last year, primarily in the developing
world. Weather patterns – temperature, soil moisture and rainfall
patterns – often set the stage for optimal conditions for the
spread of diseases like malaria. Earlier this year, NASA and the University
of Alabama-Huntsville announced a program for using satellite-based
monitoring to alert at-risk communities when the conditions are right
for outbreaks.
By feeding
information such as soil-type and recurring standing puddles in to
a GIS database, and adding to this satellite based information, such
as temperature and rainfall, a computer simulation may be used to
estimate the risk of outbreak. The combination of satellite and land
observations gives us a glimpse of the power of a truly integrated
and comprehensive observation system.
Similarly,
in a project called Epidemio, the European Space Agency is working
in the Central African country of Congo to provide GIS information
to the International Center for Medical Research in Gabon to aid in
determining the long-term carriers of the Ebola virus. Ebola, the
fatal hemorrhagic disease, continues to be a mystery due to the fact
that most carriers die quickly after infection, and it is unclear
how it spreads from region to region.
The use
of remote sensing data will hopefully shed new light on the ecological
aspects of the infection sites, allowing prediction of potential outbreaks
in environmentally similar areas.
These
two initiatives are focused on predicting and understanding the movement
of two deadly diseases, but what if we could effectively eliminate
them or at the very least severely restrict their movement? A comprehensive
Earth observation system may provide the tools to accomplish that
goal.
Another
exciting new initiative was recently announced in the US Northeast.
NOAA and our colleagues from other government agencies, academia,
and the international science community announced in March plans to
conduct the largest ever air quality study in New England this summer.
Such research is collected by a wide variety of methods such as ground-based
sensors measuring ozone, ships and aircraft monitoring the flow and
transformation of air pollution and satellites collecting data on
climate and atmospheric changes.
Collecting
this data is very important for making policy and business decisions
on the local level, but what if we could make global air quality forecasts
in the same way we currently make weather forecasts? The real benefit
comes by integrating this data with similar information collected
all over the globe. Air quality monitoring systems will provide real-time
information, as well as accurate forecasts days in advance. These
forecasts will allow for mitigation of harmful effects by proper transportation
and energy-use planning, again saving lives, and avoiding losses in
productivity worth many billions of dollars.
Energy
(resource management)
On a somewhat related topic, it is not really news that worldwide
energy prices are escalating. What if understanding our planet a little
better could save us enormous sums of money all the while allowing
us to be better stewards of our natural resources? Utilities typically
use weather forecasts to determine what mix of coal, hydroelectric,
nuclear, wind, natural gas and oil plants will be used to meet consumer
needs. According to the Tennessee Valley Authority, annual costs of
electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if we could improve
the accuracy of weather forecasts by one degree Fahrenheit.
That
difference in just one degree of accuracy could affect the decision
a utility must make in determining whether to buy electricity from
the wholesale market or fire-up an expensive natural gas facility
to meet increased demand. That same difference in forecasting can
prevent the unnecessary purchase or bringing online of a facility,
which wastes both the energy and the consumer’s money.
Likewise,
our more accurate 5-day forecast for hurricanes can save the offshore
oil and gas industry countless sums of money by notifying them when
and if a facility must go offline for a storm. Not only is this a
direct benefit to the company operating the platform, it’s an
indirect benefit that extends to the entire globe, preventing a ripple
in the world energy market that can take weeks or months to recover.
These
are only a few examples of some identified benefits from a truly integrated
system. But what about the gaps? What do we know we don’t know?
Gap
Analysis
Earlier this year, a UCLA seismologist made a controversial prediction
of a 50-50 chance of a 6.4+ magnitude earthquake in the San Andreas
Fault by September 5, 2004. This prediction was made by studying movements
of the Earth and making statistical calculations based on the data
assembled. Although the announcement has been met with a great deal
of skepticism, the fact is earthquake prediction is one of the many
gaps in our predictive capabilities, demonstrating the need-for and
value-of long-term, sustained observations of the Earth.
In addition,
ocean observations represent the largest gap in our current global
observation efforts. This data is needed to effectively manage ocean
and coastal resources. In the United States, coastal and marine waters
support over 28 million jobs, generate over $54B in goods and services,
and provide a tourism destination for 180 million Americans each year.
Over half of the U.S. population lives within the coastal zone, and
more than 95 percent of US overseas trade by volume and 37 percent
by value is waterborne, contributing more than $742 billion to the
US GDP and employing 13 million citizens.
Observations
for Science: Humankind’s Natural Curiosity
Just as our environment and our global challenges know no geographical
boundaries, the benefits of a comprehensive system of Earth Observations
are similarly boundless. The potential of such a system for protecting
our environment, safeguarding our human health and well-being, and
promoting sustainable economic growth is immense. But there is yet
another incentive for understanding our Earth and its processes: the
sheer scientific value of an understanding of the planet is immeasurable.
Man has
long been fascinated with the Earth and its remarkable phenomena.
The unearthed tombs of the ancient Egyptians indicate a reverence
for the Earth and what we now understand as natural processes, such
as the rising and setting of the sun.
Similarly,
in ancient Greece, the changing seasons and transition from night
to day were considered awe-inspiring. [Interestingly, the ancient
Greek goddess of the dawn was EOS (also the initial acronym for the
Earth Observation System) – this Earth Observation System we
are building can truly be described as the dawn of a new era of Earth
understanding.]
In the
times of Aristotle and Ptolemy, the geocentric theory of Earth was
generally accepted as absolute truth. Nearly 2000 years later, Copernicus
turned that certainty on its head with his now proven theory that
the sun and not the Earth was the center of our galaxy. Likewise,
until Galileo posed his preposterous notion that the Earth was a sphere,
our wisest scholars were convinced that this planet was a flat disc!
Since
then, monumental advances in our understanding of the Earth have been
made, but we still know relatively little about the island planet
we call home. The moon is more familiar to us than our own oceans.
When Neil Armstrong made that small step for man, we gained a new
perspective on Earth. But it’s time for yet another fresh perspective
– time to turn the telescope around and examine the marvels
of the Earth’s complex systems.
We are
standing on the shoulders of our forefathers and the scientific discoveries
that have led us to this point in time. I’m reminded of a quote
by the American author and naturalist, Henry David Thoreau:
"All
this worldly wisdom was once the amiable heresy of some wise man."
What
will our children and our children’s children know that we do
not know now? What are our “flat earth theories” that
we take for granted as truth, but may in fact prove someday to be
false? What “amiable heresies” will prove to be tomorrow’s
accepted wisdom?
The Global
Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) will indeed provide a
fresh perspective of the mysteries of Earth, and will put us on a
path to new discoveries and a new understanding of the planet.
Again,
I am delighted to be here with you today, and I thank you very much
for your interest in the exciting international venture. |