Back ||NOAA Home Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society 38th Annual Congress “Strategies for Stewardship – Development of a Global Observation System” Plenary Session Wednesday, June 2, 2004 8:35 a.m. – 9:20 a.m. Introduction Thank you. Marc Denis, for that kind introduction, and good morning to you all. I am delighted to have the opportunity to join you for this 38th Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. I’d like to especially acknowledge Geoff Strong, Chair of the Science Program Committee, for putting together such an important and interesting session. In reading through the robust agenda for this meeting, I was struck by the diversity of topics represented by such a distinguished group of scientists. Another thought occurred to me while scanning the list of presentations that is pertinent to the topic I will address this morning – the unquestionable link between the work that you do and the observation of the processes of the Earth. Before I begin, I would also like to recognize the significant contributions Canada is making in the field of Earth observations: the US enjoys several strong partnerships with Canada in the fields of Great Lakes research, drought and invasive species research, RADARSAT, to name only a few. Canada has also played a key role in the ongoing international activities towards the development of a comprehensive global system of Earth observations. Canada’s active engagement and our two countries’ collaboration on observations have proven invaluable in providing a unified North American input into the process. Development of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Nearly two years ago, I had the pleasure of addressing the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) event on the Global Information for Sustainable Development project. After my presentation, I had the opportunity to hear about the different applications for the data and information provided by the GISD, and the extraordinary amount of international collaboration for making scientifically sound public policy decisions. As you all know, the results of WSSD charged the participating countries with fostering strengthened cooperation and coordination among global observing systems and research programs for integrated global observations. In the following year, the G8 ministers meeting at Evian also issued a Science and Technology Action Plan calling on the nations of the G8 to strengthen cooperation on global observations. Earth Observation Summit I Heeding that call, in July of last year, the United States hosted 34 countries and 20 international organizations at the first-ever Earth Observation Summit at the State Department in Washington, DC. This meeting marked an important first-step in bringing the nations of the world together for the purpose of establishing a comprehensive Earth observing system. The heads of national delegations participating in the summit agreed to a declaration that called for a commitment to developing a comprehensive, coordinated Earth observation system built on existing systems. The declaration reaffirmed the need for Earth systems data and information for sound decision-making, set forth principles for long-term cooperation in meeting these goals and committed to improving Earth observation systems and scientific support in developing countries. It also established the ad hoc Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to prepare a ten-year implementation plan for a comprehensive, coordinated Earth observation system. The sense of cooperation and goodwill was palpable – not exactly a small feat when dealing with such a large and diverse group of international partners. As an excellent example of the goodwill present in the room, Canada’s Environment Minister, David Anderson announced the commitment of his nation to make its climate data – dating back to 1840 – freely available. This desire to put actions behind words is what makes Canada such a valuable partner in this venture and the most important reason why I believe we will ultimately achieve success. Group on Earth Observations (GEO) In the nine months between the first and second Earth Observation Summits, the GEO gathered four times around the world, meeting very aggressive schedules for outputs, and, sometimes, “making it up as we go.” I have the distinct pleasure of serving as one of four intergovernmental Co-Chairs of GEO, along with Mr. Akio Yuki, Deputy Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan; Mr. Achilleas Mitsos, Director-General for Research, European Commission; and Dr. Rob Adam, Director of Science & Technology, Ministry of Arts, Culture, Science and Technology, South Africa. One of the defining characteristics of GEO is that membership is open to any country that expresses an interest and designates a point of contact. Participating countries are not bound by geographic characteristics, population, wealth, or world status – only by a desire to be a part of the future. This philosophy has caused GEO to continue to grow and expand and we also have participation by a growing number of international organizations that have observations and/or an Earth science focus. We want everyone to have a seat at this table because that is the only way to ensure that we meet our ultimate goal of complete global coverage. We have accomplished much in the first leg of our mission: At GEO 1 in Washington, we approved Terms of Reference and established five working subgroups to address Architecture, Data Utilization, User Requirements & Outreach, Capacity Building and International Cooperation components of the Plan. At GEO 2 in Baveno, we received initial reports from those subgroups, and reached consensus on a societal benefit / user focus for the Plan. Initial discussions also began on an international cooperation mechanism for post-GEO implementation of the Plan. At GEO 3 in Cape Town, the Framework document and accompanying Communiqué were fully negotiated and prepared for distribution to countries for comment/clearance. In addition, GEO agreed that each Co-Chair would designate a representative for the Implementation Plan Task Team, to serve as the Co-Chair’s point person organizing the writing of the Plan. At GEO 4 in Tokyo, we held final discussions on the negotiated text of the Framework and Communiqué, which would be presented to ministers at the second summit, and received the first reports of the Implementation Plan Task Team. Discussions also continued on a governance structure for a successor mechanism to GEO, and we decided to hold a special session this summer to come to agreement on that issue. Earth Observation Summit II Earth Observation Summit II in Tokyo this past April welcomed 44 ministers and heads of national delegations, along with 26 international organizations. The convening of the Tokyo Summit delivered on the charge from the initial Washington meeting to have a Framework for the 10-Year Plan agreed to by Spring of 2004. This Framework for what is now called the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) focuses on the benefits of a global system, noting current key areas of observations and pointing out the shortcomings of our existing systems. The Framework also offers a picture of what GEOSS will look like: GEOSS will be: Comprehensive, by including observations and products gathered from all components required to serve the needs of participating members; Coordinated, in terms of leveraging resources of individual contributing members to accomplish this system, whose total capacity is greater than the sum of its parts; and Sustained, by the collective and individual will and capacity of participating members. The Framework states that the GEOSS will be a distributed system of systems, addressing data utilization challenges, and facilitating and building-on current and new capacity building efforts. Specific outcomes of an operational GEOSS are identified in the document including enabling global, multi-system information capabilities for: Disaster reduction, including response and recovery Integrated water resource management Ocean monitoring and marine resource management Air quality monitoring and forecasting Biodiversity conservation, and Sustainable land use management Other outcomes include, but certainly are not limited to, the tracking of invasive species, global and regional climate monitoring (on annual, decadal and longer-time scales), improving our in situ system coverage and integration and better meeting the needs of the developing world. GEO 5 As I mentioned earlier, there will be a special session of the group to discuss governance structures, but I am pleased to report that the next meeting of GEO is scheduled for November 28-29th in Ottawa. Speaking on behalf of the United States and as a GEO Co-Chair, I greatly appreciate Canada’s generous offer to host this next very important meeting. In continuing with the aggressive pace we have set thus far, we have much to do in the upcoming months before GEO 5. At our last meeting, the Co-Chairs recommended, and the GEO agreed to a suite of three documents to be presented to the third and final summit next year: The 10-Year Implementation Plan [negotiated by member countries]– about 10 pages in length, mapping out the key principles of GEOSS The Technical Blueprint [not negotiated]– a fuller description of the details of the plan and the foundation for the Implementation Plan The Communiqué of the Third Earth Observation Summit [negotiated by member countries]– a one-page ministerial statement announcing the adoption and approval of the 10 Year Implementation Plan. The Ottawa meeting is a critical step in our process – it is at this meeting that we will fully negotiate the Implementation Plan and Communiqué for distribution to countries. In addition, we will be reviewing and providing direction to the writing teams for completion of the Technical Blueprint. The period between GEO5 and the final Summit in 2005 is only about 75 days, and that includes the winter holiday season, so achieving consensus and some degree of finality by the time we leave Ottawa is essential to our success. I’m looking forward to returning to Canada in November for a productive GEO 5 session. Earth Observation Summit III The third and ultimate summit will be hosted by the European Commission and is slated to take place in Brussels, Belgium in mid-February 2005, leaving us just under a year to finalize our task of completing the 10-Year Implementation Plan. The schedule is compressed; the task is daunting, but the enthusiasm of GEO over the course of the first phase of our effort has been encouraging. There’s an ancient Chinese proverb that translates: “The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it.” That seems to be the mindset of this group, and I am confident we will meet our 2005 goal. I’d like to turn now for a few moments and talk about why I believe the support and enthusiasm for GEO and GEOSS continues to grow: primarily, our ability to identify tangible examples of how the world will benefit from a better understanding of Earth. Environmental, Societal and Economic Benefits of a Comprehensive Earth Observation System Canadian Prime Minister Martin was recently in Washington DC to meet with President Bush, and in a side-event, made some comments that are pertinent to the work of GEO. The Prime Minister mentioned that we need to stop blaming our international mechanisms for not working – we are those organizations. In referencing the G20 meeting held several years ago to address the Asian financial crisis, he noted that, while scripted meetings are important, much work can be done by bringing the right people around the table without scripts to address a problem. He recommended identifying an international challenge and bringing ministers to the table to achieve results. The global observation initiative is just such an effort that will flourish primarily due to the enormous benefits that may be realized. And we do have a good group of the right people around the table, with an open invitation to all interested countries. GEO, which began last August with 34 countries plus the European Commission, is steadily growing, largely due to interest from the developing world. At the Tokyo meeting, we had grown to 47 countries (plus the European Commission), with 29 international organizations adding their expertise to the mix. We have generated a great deal of political will in support of this effort and it is imperative to this process that we maintain it. Highlighting the human dimension and the benefits to society from a comprehensive system will be the key. At the third meeting of the Group on Earth Observations in Cape Town in February, Deputy Minister of Science and Technology Sonjica noted in her keynote remarks that this effort is dedicated to “finding solutions to human problems.” As you in this room well know, a comprehensive understanding of weather and climate is an integral part of the GEOSS equation - but only a part. In the US, we are working at the national level to develop a plan for an interagency observation strategy to understand weather and climate, but also recognizing other tangible outcomes, which are global in nature, as well. These outcomes, based on solving human problems, also make up the focus of GEOSS. I often think of the proverb that says “Where there is no vision, the people perish” as an effective way to communicate the need for a global observation system. Clearly, in our current state we are operating somewhat blindly and as those of you in the weather community especially well know, our blindness may be costing lives. Unfortunately, such esoteric reasoning does not hold up to the scrutiny of the American taxpayer and I’m sure the Canadian ones would feel the same. Therefore, we must focus on the tangible benefits that affect people on a daily basis. I’ll give you a few examples: Agriculture [Canadian drought] A recent article by the Associate Press noted that this year, British Columbia may face its worst drought since the Great Depression. This will affect planting and harvesting decisions, put serious restraints on water use, and could likely cause a more active forest fire season. I don’t have global figures on costs associated with drought in front of me, but estimates of costs in the US range from $6 to $8 billion annually. But what if we knew years in advance that these patterns would be occurring and could take the necessary precautions to mitigate the effects? Understanding the El Nino/La Nina patterns have allowed us to save millions of dollars in the US alone. Worldwide benefits to agriculture due to El Nino forecasts are at least $450 to $550 million per year. As an example, crop planting decisions, seed selection, fertilizer application, etc., can be adjusted to reduce vulnerability to abnormal weather conditions, making both producers and consumers better off. It also may be possible to adjust storage of crop inventories in anticipation of changed yields due to El Niño. A comprehensive system of Earth observations may just give us the rest of the missing pieces to that puzzle, allowing us to predict and plan for droughts and other phenomena affecting our agricultural outputs. Health [Malaria and Ebola research; Air Quality forecasting] The health of our citizens will also benefit from an integrated system of observations that will be used for novel applications such as disease tracking and prediction. These projects have already begun, but are still in their infancy. Take for instance the following two examples: Malaria killed more than a million people last year, primarily in the developing world. Weather patterns – temperature, soil moisture and rainfall patterns – often set the stage for optimal conditions for the spread of diseases like malaria. Earlier this year, NASA and the University of Alabama-Huntsville announced a program for using satellite-based monitoring to alert at-risk communities when the conditions are right for outbreaks. By feeding information such as soil-type and recurring standing puddles in to a GIS database, and adding to this satellite based information, such as temperature and rainfall, a computer simulation may be used to estimate the risk of outbreak. The combination of satellite and land observations gives us a glimpse of the power of a truly integrated and comprehensive observation system. Similarly, in a project called Epidemio, the European Space Agency is working in the Central African country of Congo to provide GIS information to the International Center for Medical Research in Gabon to aid in determining the long-term carriers of the Ebola virus. Ebola, the fatal hemorrhagic disease, continues to be a mystery due to the fact that most carriers die quickly after infection, and it is unclear how it spreads from region to region. The use of remote sensing data will hopefully shed new light on the ecological aspects of the infection sites, allowing prediction of potential outbreaks in environmentally similar areas. These two initiatives are focused on predicting and understanding the movement of two deadly diseases, but what if we could effectively eliminate them or at the very least severely restrict their movement? A comprehensive Earth observation system may provide the tools to accomplish that goal. Another exciting new initiative was recently announced in the US Northeast. NOAA and our colleagues from other government agencies, academia, and the international science community announced in March plans to conduct the largest ever air quality study in New England this summer. Such research is collected by a wide variety of methods such as ground-based sensors measuring ozone, ships and aircraft monitoring the flow and transformation of air pollution and satellites collecting data on climate and atmospheric changes. Collecting this data is very important for making policy and business decisions on the local level, but what if we could make global air quality forecasts in the same way we currently make weather forecasts? The real benefit comes by integrating this data with similar information collected all over the globe. Air quality monitoring systems will provide real-time information, as well as accurate forecasts days in advance. These forecasts will allow for mitigation of harmful effects by proper transportation and energy-use planning, again saving lives, and avoiding losses in productivity worth many billions of dollars. Energy (resource management) On a somewhat related topic, it is not really news that worldwide energy prices are escalating. What if understanding our planet a little better could save us enormous sums of money all the while allowing us to be better stewards of our natural resources? Utilities typically use weather forecasts to determine what mix of coal, hydroelectric, nuclear, wind, natural gas and oil plants will be used to meet consumer needs. According to the Tennessee Valley Authority, annual costs of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if we could improve the accuracy of weather forecasts by one degree Fahrenheit. That difference in just one degree of accuracy could affect the decision a utility must make in determining whether to buy electricity from the wholesale market or fire-up an expensive natural gas facility to meet increased demand. That same difference in forecasting can prevent the unnecessary purchase or bringing online of a facility, which wastes both the energy and the consumer’s money. Likewise, our more accurate 5-day forecast for hurricanes can save the offshore oil and gas industry countless sums of money by notifying them when and if a facility must go offline for a storm. Not only is this a direct benefit to the company operating the platform, it’s an indirect benefit that extends to the entire globe, preventing a ripple in the world energy market that can take weeks or months to recover. These are only a few examples of some identified benefits from a truly integrated system. But what about the gaps? What do we know we don’t know? Gap Analysis Earlier this year, a UCLA seismologist made a controversial prediction of a 50-50 chance of a 6.4+ magnitude earthquake in the San Andreas Fault by September 5, 2004. This prediction was made by studying movements of the Earth and making statistical calculations based on the data assembled. Although the announcement has been met with a great deal of skepticism, the fact is earthquake prediction is one of the many gaps in our predictive capabilities, demonstrating the need-for and value-of long-term, sustained observations of the Earth. In addition, ocean observations represent the largest gap in our current global observation efforts. This data is needed to effectively manage ocean and coastal resources. In the United States, coastal and marine waters support over 28 million jobs, generate over $54B in goods and services, and provide a tourism destination for 180 million Americans each year. Over half of the U.S. population lives within the coastal zone, and more than 95 percent of US overseas trade by volume and 37 percent by value is waterborne, contributing more than $742 billion to the US GDP and employing 13 million citizens. Observations for Science: Humankind’s Natural Curiosity Just as our environment and our global challenges know no geographical boundaries, the benefits of a comprehensive system of Earth Observations are similarly boundless. The potential of such a system for protecting our environment, safeguarding our human health and well-being, and promoting sustainable economic growth is immense. But there is yet another incentive for understanding our Earth and its processes: the sheer scientific value of an understanding of the planet is immeasurable. Man has long been fascinated with the Earth and its remarkable phenomena. The unearthed tombs of the ancient Egyptians indicate a reverence for the Earth and what we now understand as natural processes, such as the rising and setting of the sun. Similarly, in ancient Greece, the changing seasons and transition from night to day were considered awe-inspiring. [Interestingly, the ancient Greek goddess of the dawn was EOS (also the initial acronym for the Earth Observation System) – this Earth Observation System we are building can truly be described as the dawn of a new era of Earth understanding.] In the times of Aristotle and Ptolemy, the geocentric theory of Earth was generally accepted as absolute truth. Nearly 2000 years later, Copernicus turned that certainty on its head with his now proven theory that the sun and not the Earth was the center of our galaxy. Likewise, until Galileo posed his preposterous notion that the Earth was a sphere, our wisest scholars were convinced that this planet was a flat disc! Since then, monumental advances in our understanding of the Earth have been made, but we still know relatively little about the island planet we call home. The moon is more familiar to us than our own oceans. When Neil Armstrong made that small step for man, we gained a new perspective on Earth. But it’s time for yet another fresh perspective – time to turn the telescope around and examine the marvels of the Earth’s complex systems. We are standing on the shoulders of our forefathers and the scientific discoveries that have led us to this point in time. I’m reminded of a quote by the American author and naturalist, Henry David Thoreau: "All this worldly wisdom was once the amiable heresy of some wise man." What will our children and our children’s children know that we do not know now? What are our “flat earth theories” that we take for granted as truth, but may in fact prove someday to be false? What “amiable heresies” will prove to be tomorrow’s accepted wisdom? The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) will indeed provide a fresh perspective of the mysteries of Earth, and will put us on a path to new discoveries and a new understanding of the planet. Again, I am delighted to be here with you today, and I thank you very much for your interest in the exciting international venture.