Back ||NOAA Home Space Weather Week Vice Admiral (Ret.) Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere NOAA Administrator May 19, 2003 Introduction Thank you Ernie, and Good morning. It is indeed a great pleasure to speak to you today. I am honored to be in the opening session of Space Weather Week this morning with such distinguished guests as Representative Udall, Lieutenant Governor Norton, Brigadier General Johnson, Rear Admiral Donaldson, and Dr. Lanzerotti. Thank you to all of the co-hosts of this Conference — SEC, NSF’s Division of Atmospheric Science, the Air Force Research Laboratory, and NASA’s Sun-Earth Connection Program — you have done a superb job of bringing folks together with what I hear is a record turn-out — nearly 300 participants. That shows the importance of this area and how it is growing, and I am appreciative of all the work required to put together a conference of this magnitude. I am a big supporter of building large-scale cooperative programs to leverage available funding and expertise. Therefore, Space Weather Week is a unique and very important conference from my perspective because it brings together state of the art researchers and scientists, government service providers, users and operational industry representatives, in a productive and collegial forum. I commend the efforts made by this group to bring together varying expertise as you promote a growing industry and continue to enhance operational services. FY03 Status At the opening, I must address our own SEC staff, so please indulge me for a moment. Fiscal Year 03 has been a very challenging year for SEC and I am personally proud of the way that you have conducted yourselves under conditions of adversity, and I am proud of the way that you have continued with SEC’s mission working for the benefit of science and for the good of the Nation. We would all like to believe that this has been what I hope is an anomalous year in terms of budget, but I wouldn’t count on it. In a time when our nation is engaged in a war on terrorism, heightened Homeland Security, and a sluggish economy, we must be prepared for our budgets to reflect those challenges. I think we have to be well prepared for budget realities in the future. I’m not here this morning to look back however, but to look forward, and as of right now, the Space Environment Center is fully supported in the FY04 President’s Budget Request and SEC remains an important part of NOAA’s mission. The president has asked us to continue this work in FY04, at a higher level. Overall, this year is most likely indicative of the tough budget battles we will face in the future. First, to our partners in the audience this morning — your presence here is a strong endorsement of critical need for space weather information, products and services that together we provide. I encourage you to share your ideas at this forum and “build a larger tent” to get even more people together with a solid rationale to gain the support we need for the future. For all here today, how can we be better prepared to compete in this new environment? Allow me to share with you some of my thoughts in answering this difficult question. Let’s talk about a few. NOAA’s Approach to Looking Ahead I have had the opportunity and great honor as a member of the NOAA team a year and a half. This is a difficult and marvelously important job. Many of you may be aware of the changes we have initiated to move NOAA forward to be relevant in the 21st century. We have installed a system and organizational changes that will enable us to take full advantage of our skills, both across our own agency, and in company with other agencies and partners to meet our environmental missions now and in the future. Strategic Business Management Process When I came to NOAA we conducted a thorough top-to-bottom review. We have installed a customized version of a Strategic Business Management Process. While we do not have the time today to discuss all of the changes, in brief, it has three phases: Planning, Programming, and Budgeting. The fundamental step is to build a Strategic Plan, which is updated each year. We then develop programs that support the Strategic Plan, and finally we develop a detailed budget request that reflects those priorities and is fully justified. After that, we start over again with the next Planning, Programming, and Budgeting cycle. If you wait until the Budgeting part of the process to compete for resources, you’ll be too late. These steps will be critical to our success as an agency in the future, which is dependent on our ability to fulfill the needs of the nation in a cost effective manner. The missions of the future are clearly much broader than any individual Line or Program office within NOAA. Meeting them will require breaking down our stovepipes, empowering cross-Line program efforts, and building a broad range of partnerships outside of NOAA. We have created two new offices within NOAA that will facilitate our vision for the future. Matrix Management The first is a new Line Office in NOAA - Program Planning and Integration, or PPI. Mary Glackin, who previously served as the Deputy AA for NESDIS, is the new Assistant Administrator for PPI. Her office will house the stable of matrix managers and will also be responsible for the Strategic Planning process. What is Matrix Management? Matrix Management is not a new concept; it has been a fixture in the private sector for 20 years or more. It is a flexible way to structure and execute programs that cut across the stovepipes of an organization. The Manager in charge of each program has the budget, schedule, and execution authority to ensure that the desired outcomes of the agency’s programs are being addressed in the most effective way. This is a new concept in NOAA; a new wrinkle. Program Analysis and Evaluation (PA&E) The second new office that we have created is titled Program Analysis and Evaluation, or PA&E, headed by Bonnie Morehouse. PA&E is in charge of ensuring that NOAA develops an organized program plan that addresses both the broad and specific mission goals of NOAA as laid out in the Strategic Plan. The NOAA Program, with a capital “P” must contain tangible initiatives with performance metrics and outcomes tied to it. That’s the background we’re working with in NOAA. How the new process relates to the provision of products and services Now, I just outlined our organizational modifications and a number of new process steps, not simply to demonstrate that NOAA has changed for the sake of change, but to give you some context for how that process translates into improved development and provision of relevant products and services. Space weather is an admittedly smaller part of an overall process that starts with discoveries and an improved suite of information, products and services that the Air Force, the Navy, NSF, NOAA, and the Commercial Space Weather Service Providers can offer. But it needs to be a growing part, with a mission-critical component to protect critical energy infrastructure, satellite hardware, the lives and property of astronauts, aviators, and flight passengers to name a few, and to promote the health of our economy. How do we grow those resources? We have to show that there is a direct public benefit. A few examples of the critical, economic-driven nature of space weather services are: It is estimated to cost up to an additional $100K every time a transpolar flight is diverted from a polar route due to space weather disturbances, and this figure does account for the economic loss to the passengers for the additional time spent in delays. Increased accuracy in space weather services allowing for a 1% gain in continuity and availability of GPS would be worth $180M per year. US Department of Defense spends $500M per year to mitigate space weather effects (Storms from the Sun, Carlowicz and Lopez, 2002, 128). We have the elements of a solid message to tell and we need to work for the day when that message is clearly understood by the general public. In much the same way that there is a need for terrestrial weather forecasts, there is a need for Space Weather forecasts. Just as people use terrestrial weather forecasts, people, perhaps not as many, DO use space weather forecasts. Brigadier General Johnson will tell you that every morning when the head of the Air Force receives his weather briefing it includes space weather. Two critical steps for Space Weather: Vision and Rationale So how do we get where we’re going? With vision and rationale, using Cost, Schedule, and Performance. Using the process that we’ve put in place internally to raise the level of communication and partnership of our programs within NOAA, I see two important steps for Space Weather. First we must document the Space Weather vision that includes all of the pieces of NOAA as well as all of our partners. Internally to NOAA this means not only SEC but the piece of NOAA Satellites that keep GOES 12 with the Solar X-Ray Imager in the air and operational, and the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) that formats and archives the data - both of which are critical to our mission. In addition, SEC is part of the Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction that are recognized for their mission to protect life and property from severe weather. This Space Weather Week forum is a good one to discuss that collective vision and I encourage you to join the efforts. Secondly, we must build a solid collective rationale for the Space Weather program based on that vision. There are a number of efforts already completed which can serve as a foundation: The NOAA Strategic Plan for 2003 to 2008 instructs us to: Increase the volume of forecast and warning information formatted to clarify the uncertainty of a space weather event; and improve the performance of NOAA’s space weather prediction suite. The National Research Council report— A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics, 2003, which you are all familiar with, calls for NOAA to assume responsibility for space-based solar wind measurements. It also suggests that NOAA should expand its facilities for integrating data into space weather models, and says that NOAA, NASA, and our other partners should work to transition research into operations. NASA’s Living With a Star program invests Hundreds of Millions in Sun-Earth system research and it is incumbent upon NOAA and our operational partners to transition their research data and results into operational user support. The National Space Weather Program, a collaboration of 7 agencies, is run out of the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology is tasked with coordinating the national efforts of space weather. The National Security Space Architect Study of 2000 found that the current and planned activities of SEC and its partners are essential to meet DoD’s space weather needs. I understand that it is difficult for a program the size of Space Weather to compete with mandates in other areas such as severe terrestrial weather, but that just makes it all the more important to build a logic for space weather that can compete in this difficult fiscal environment. Other ideas Allow me to discuss three other ideas for building a vision and a rationale: Increased Observations and the Earth Observation Summit More Effective Transition from Research to Operations Stronger Partnerships The value of improved observations I have been an ardent supporter of the value of Global Observations. It is one of the Grandest Challenges that we face as agencies, as the wider community of “Earth Scientists”, and as part of the body of international governments and organizations. Two weeks ago at the World Meteorological Organization Congress in Geneva, Switzerland, where I spoke to them about the need for an “Earth Science Renaissance” — a new era where human ingenuity must be applied to developing a deeper understanding of the complex systems of Planet Earth. All scientific understanding begins with observation. Model builders can build models, but without the observations, the models are not useful. Space Weather observations should be one of the integral parts of a complete Earth Observing System. When I talk about an earth observation system, I mean a system that includes all environmental parameters. That is one of the reasons that I was so thrilled to celebrate when the Solar X-Ray Imager went on-line. Minute by minute imagery of the sun provides us with a truer look at the activity on the sun that enables us to provide warnings and forecasts never before feasible. As part of our process of looking forward, Earth scientists must admit that collectively, we need to do much more in the area of observing. We must build a system of systems that will give us data, including Space Weather, that we need to “take the pulse of the planet." To this end, The U.S. will host an Earth Observation Summit on July 31 in Washington DC that will bring together Government Ministers of the G-8, other nations, and international organizations to promote the concept of Global Observing. The summit will give us a chance to discuss the value and need to commit to building an optimized observing system for the Earth. On the day after the Summit, an international Ad Hoc Working Group will hold its first meeting to develop a 10-year international plan for developing such a system. You need to start thinking about how the Space Weather community might get involved. For example, we are in the midst of planning for our next generation GOES and NPOESS satellites right now. Space Weather parameters must be in the mix of requirements to be discussed. We also recognize the need to link observing system outputs to effective data management, and then to the decision-making process. An integrated system that is fully wired and networked together will provide for data processing distribution, and archiving in an accessible and affordable manner which should meet the needs of decision-makers and managers. A current example of cooperation in this arena is between this community and our National Geophysical Data Center. NGDC serves as DMSP data archivist and supplier for both SEC and the Air Force — a partnership critical to meeting user needs. More effective transition of research to operations Another important focal area for the Space Weather Community is more effective transition of research to operations. One of the best features about Space Weather Week is that it brings together both sides of that evolution with research scientists as well as operators from academia to the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group that tailors products for market. Our ability to fulfill our mission is a measure of the success of our joint research and technology development programs. To that end, we must facilitate the transition and translation of our collective science output, such as the transition of an externally developed technology to operational forecast use. I know that SEC, in collaboration with its partners, is already working hard on this challenge. You should know that internally we have an initiative request for FY05 budget that would bring the more complex models into operational status. That will take a great deal of work and support from all of you in this room. A prime example is the Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements, (GAIM) model that will be ready for transition within two to three years from a university consortium including Utah State University, the University of Colorado in Boulder, the University of Texas in Dallas, the University of Washington, USC, and the Jet Propulsion Lab, to the Space Environment Center. This model will provide forecasts of the ionosphere in 3-dimensions, where previously only in situ measurements were available. I support these efforts. You have the benefit of being in a relatively new field, as compared to the terrestrial weather community, and also the benefit of a burgeoning, enthusiastic Commercial Space Weather Group that is eager to provide a ready market with new products. Stronger partnerships As I talk about end-to-end approaches and collective thought, I’ll introduce my last suggestion for improving our vision and program rationale. That is through stronger partnerships. A partnership to me, is a situation where all parties involved benefit from the arrangement. It is obvious that I am preaching to the choir about the value of partnerships. The Space Weather community has grown up together and I have been advised that you have been superb in supporting each other as the field has developed but we need to do more. An effective partnership is measured by the results. With increased reliance on GPS and satellites, and the increasing understanding of geomagnetic storms and their effects, the need for Space Weather Services will continue to grow. Only through a totally united partnership can we succeed in growing this community. Many of you may have seen the NRC Fair Weather report, which says that through the cooperation of the federal government, the private weather industry, and academia, we as a Nation have the best Weather services possible. If we were to include the military in that equation, I submit that we are capable of moving Space Weather services to the same level. Closing The message I want to leave you with is a simple one. As I look around my own organization I am always amazed at the power of people collectively working together on challenging issues. I see the same thing as I look at the agencies and organizations represented by this community and I encourage you to continue to build on that foundation. In terms of how we continue to strive to build a vision and a rationale, there are some fundamental pieces. Better observations lead to more relevant data, increased efficiency and accuracy of information. Successful transitioning from research to operations leads to more effective products with more value to the customers; and stronger partnerships, including government, academia, and the private sector will lead to greater public support. It is my sincere hope that you will take the opportunity this week to continue to work together and build the Plans and solid rationale that will move us forward. With that, I am happy to answer any questions that you have. Thank you.