Back ||NOAA Home World Meteorological Organization 56th Executive Council “Strategies for Stewardship – Development of a Global Observation System” Plenary Session—Committee of the Whole Tuesday, June 15, 2004 9:30 a.m. [As prepared for delivery] Introduction Thank you and good morning. It is a great pleasure and privilege to be with you. I thank the WMO for inviting me to meet with you here to address the WMO Executive Council. I have been deeply impressed by the achievements that have resulted from the long-standing partnerships within the WMO and its member countries over many decades – with one of the most notable being WMO’s World Weather Watch Global Observing System for weather that has brought so many benefits to the nations of the world. In short, the WMO is a model international organization demonstrating to the entire world the enormous benefits that can be gained by serious cooperative efforts. Before I begin, I would also like to recognize some other significant contributions of the WMO is making in the field of Earth observations: the creation of the WMO Space Programme, efforts to improve and maintain surface and upper air systems, and improvements to the GTS to name only a few. Last year, I addressed the WMO Congress speaking on behalf of the US Government and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Today I am honored to be here as a representative of the 47 countries and 29 international organizations that make up the intergovernmental ad hoc Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GEO has truly become an international movement towards the development of a comprehensive, coordinated and sustained global system of Earth observations. The WMO has played a key role in this. The WMO’s active engagement in all of the GEO working groups & Secretariat, its key role in facilitating dialogue with other agencies of the United Nations, and in offering its significant ability to convene world experts to address the key issues has been a model for all involved. Development of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Nearly two years ago, I had the pleasure of addressing the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) event on the Global Information for Sustainable Development project. After my presentation, I had the opportunity to hear about the different applications for the data and information provided by the GISD, and the extraordinary amount of international collaboration for making scientifically sound public policy decisions. As you all know, the results of WSSD charged the participating countries with fostering strengthened cooperation and coordination among global observing systems and research programs for integrated global observations. In the following year, the G8 ministers meeting at Evian also issued a Science and Technology Action Plan calling on the nations of the G8 to strengthen cooperation on global observations. Earth Observation Summit I Heeding that call, in July of last year, the United States hosted 34 countries and 20 international organizations at the first-ever Earth Observation Summit at the State Department in Washington, DC. This meeting marked an important first-step in bringing the nations of the world together for the purpose of establishing a comprehensive, coordinated and sustained Earth observing system. The heads of national delegations participating in the summit agreed to a declaration that called for a commitment to developing a comprehensive, coordinated and sustained Earth observation system built on existing systems. The declaration reaffirmed the need for Earth systems data and information for sound decision-making, set forth principles for long-term cooperation in meeting these goals and committed to improving Earth observation systems and scientific support in developing countries. It also established the ad hoc Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to prepare a ten-year implementation plan for a comprehensive, coordinated Earth observation system. The sense of cooperation and goodwill was palpable – not exactly a small feat when dealing with such a large and diverse group of international partners. As an excellent example of the goodwill present in the room, Canada’s Environment Minister, David Anderson announced the commitment of his nation to make its climate data – dating back to 1840 – freely available. Putting actions behind words is one reason why I believe we will ultimately achieve success. Focusing on the benefits of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems is another. Earth Observation Summit II The convening of the Second Earth Observation Summit delivered on the charge from the initial Washington meeting to have a Framework for the 10-Year Plan agreed to by Spring of 2004. This Framework for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) focuses on the benefits of a global system, noting current key areas of observations and pointing out the shortcomings of our existing systems. The Framework states that the GEOSS will be a system of systems, addressing data utilization challenges, and facilitating and building-on current and new capacity building efforts. The Framework also offers a glimpse of what GEOSS will look like: GEOSS will be: Comprehensive, by including observations and products gathered from all components required to serve the needs of participating members; Coordinated, in terms of leveraging resources of individual contributing members to accomplish this system, whose total capacity is greater than the sum of its parts; and Sustained, by the collective and individual will and capacity of participating members. Societal Benefits: Weather as Benefit and Crosscut: A comprehensive, coordinated and sustained system will address nine societal benefits areas: Reducing loss of life and property from natural and human-induced disasters; Understanding environmental factors affecting human health and well being; Improving management of energy resources; Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate variability and change; Improving water resource management through better understanding of the water cycle; Improving weather information, forecasting, and warning; Improving the management and protection of terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems; Supporting sustainable agriculture and combating desertification; and Understanding, monitoring, and conserving biodiversity. You will notice that improved understanding of weather was identified as one of the nine most important benefits areas, but I believe it is clear that weather is also an important cross-cut of the remaining 8 benefits areas. I could discuss these linkages at length, but given the short amount of time I have with you today, I’d like to focus on just a few: Weather and Disasters: Last month, the Dominican Republic and Haiti suffered the loss of 1500 lives from a weather related disaster. But what if we had space-based hyperspectral sounders and imagers with advanced physics capable of measuring temperature and moisture ahead of the storm. Space-based and in situ aircraft wind measurements from commercial aircraft are fed into the models. At the same time, space-based radiance data detects abnormally high soil moistures along the northern slopes of the Honduran and Guatemalan highlands. The numerical forecasts indicate that the tropical storm will not develop into a major hurricane, but will become a major rain producer. Using the soil moisture data and input from the new high-resolution global weather models, hydrological models predict massive run off and a high probability of major mud slides for a 300 kilometer band. The peak danger for this potentially disastrous flooding is forecasted to be from 18 to 24 hours following landfall. Warnings are issued 4 days in advance of the predicted heavy rains. As expected, the storm makes landfall with rain totals reaching up to 10 inches in 6 hours over the higher elevations. Residents in the floodplains have been evacuated and losses are greatly reduced by advance flood warnings. Weather and Health: The health of our citizens will also benefit from an integrated system of observations that will be used for novel applications such as disease tracking and prediction. These projects have already begun, but are still in their infancy. Take for instance thefollowing two examples: Malaria killed more than a million people last year, primarily in the developing world. Weather patterns – temperature, soil moisture and rainfall patterns – often set the stage for optimal conditions for the spread of diseases like malaria. Earlier this year, NASA and the University of Alabama-Huntsville announced a program for using satellite-based monitoring to alert at-risk communities when the conditions are right for outbreaks. By feeding information such as soil-type and recurring standing puddles in to a GIS database, and adding to this satellite based information, such as temperature and rainfall, a computer simulation may be used to estimate the risk of outbreak. The combination of satellite and land observations gives us a glimpse of the power of a truly integrated and comprehensive observation system. Similarly, in a project called Epidemio, the European Space Agency is working in the Central African country of Congo to provide GIS information to the International Center for Medical Research in Gabon to aid in determining the long-term carriers of the Ebola virus. Ebola, the fatal hemorrhagic disease, continues to be a mystery due to the fact that most carriers die quickly after infection, and it is unclear how it spreads from region to region. The use of remote sensing data will hopefully shed new light on the ecological aspects of the infection sites, allowing prediction of potential outbreaks in environmentally similar areas. These two initiatives are focused on predicting and understanding the movement of two deadly diseases, but what if we could effectively eliminate them or at the very least severely restrict their movement? A comprehensive Earth observation system may provide the tools to accomplish that goal. Weather and Energy: On another important topic, it is not really news that worldwide energy prices are escalating. What if understanding our planet a little better could save us enormous sums of money all the while allowing us to be better stewards of our natural resources? Utilities typically use weather forecasts to determine what mix of coal, hydroelectric, nuclear, wind, natural gas and oil plants will be used to meet consumer needs. According to the Tennessee Valley Authority, annual costs of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if we could improve the accuracy of weather forecasts by one degree Fahrenheit. That difference in just one degree of accuracy could affect the decision a utility must make in determining whether to buy electricity from the wholesale market or fire-up an expensive natural gas facility to meet increased demand. That same difference in forecasting can prevent the unnecessary purchase or bringing online of a facility, which wastes both the energy and the consumer’s money. Likewise, our more accurate 5-day forecast for hurricanes can save the offshore oil and gas industry countless sums of money by notifying them when and if a facility must go offline for a storm. Not only is this a direct benefit to the company operating the platform, it’s an indirect benefit that extends to the entire globe, preventing a ripple in the world energy market that can take weeks or months to recover. Weather and Agriculture: Drought is a worldwide issue affecting planting and harvesting decisions. It puts serious restraints on water use, and in some countries resulting in a more active forest fire season. I don’t have global figures on costs associated with drought in front of me, but estimates of costs in the US range from $6 to $8 billion annually. But what if we knew years in advance that these patterns would be occurring and could take the necessary precautions to mitigate the effects? Understanding the El Nino/La Nina patterns have allowed us to save millions of dollars in the US alone. Worldwide benefits to agriculture due to El Nino forecasts are at least $450 to $550 million per year. As an example, crop planting decisions, seed selection, fertilizer application, water allocation, etc., can be adjusted to reduce vulnerability to abnormal weather conditions, making both producers and consumers better off. It also may be possible to adjust storage of crop inventories in anticipation of changed yields due to El Niño. A comprehensive system of Earth observations may just give us the rest of the missing pieces to that puzzle, allowing us to predict and plan for droughts and other phenomena affecting our agricultural outputs. The international community has been talking about the benefits of observations for years from a scientific perspective. This GEO process is working to capture the imagination of the decision-makers who will use the information to make sound policy based on sound science. Developing the 10-Year Plan: In the nine months between the first and second Earth Observation Summits, the GEO gathered four times around the world, meeting very aggressive schedules for outputs. I have the distinct pleasure of serving as one of four intergovernmental Co-Chairs of GEO, along with Mr. Akio Yuki, Deputy Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan; Mr. Achilleas Mitsos, Director-General for Research, European Commission; and Dr. Rob Adam, Director-General of the Department of Science & Technology, South Africa. One of the defining characteristics of GEO is that membership is open to any country that expresses an interest and designates a point of contact. Interestingly, the fastest-growing sector of our membership has been the developing countries – again, evidence that people understand the societal benefits to be derived from such a system. I should also acknowledge the growing number of intergovernmental organizations such as yourselves who have provided the support and institutional leadership necessary to get where we are today in the process. I’m especially encouraged by the joint statement communicated by the WMO Secretary General, Michel Jarraud, on behalf of the Executive Heads of FAO, UNESCO (including its IOC), UNEP and WMO at the recent Earth Observation Summit II in Tokyo. We want everyone to have a seat at this table because that is the only way to ensure that we meet our ultimate goal of complete global coverage. GEO Highlights: We have accomplished much in the first leg of our mission. At GEO 1 in Washington, we approved Terms of Reference and established five working subgroups to address Architecture, Data Utilization, User Requirements & Outreach, Capacity Building and International Cooperation components of the Plan. At GEO 2 in Baveno, we received initial reports from those subgroups, and reached consensus on the societal benefit / user focus for the Plan. Initial discussions also began on an international cooperation mechanism for post-GEO implementation of the Plan. At GEO 3 in Cape Town, the Framework document and accompanying Communiqué were fully negotiated and prepared for distribution to countries for comment/clearance. In addition, GEO agreed that each Co-Chair would designate a representative for the Implementation Plan Task Team, to serve as the Co-Chair’s point person organizing the writing of the Plan. At GEO 4 in Tokyo, we held final discussions on the negotiated text of the Framework and Communiqué, which would be presented to ministers at the second summit, and received the first reports of the Implementation Plan Task Team. Discussions also continued on a governance structure for a successor mechanism to GEO, and we decided to hold a special session this fall in Brussels to come to agreement on that issue. Governance: The members of GEO are currently considering and providing comments on the following 9 principles that converged from the discussions at the last GEO meeting – High level participation Government primacy, with open participation by organizations Membership open to all countries Regular meetings at senior official level, with periodic ministerial meeting Coordinate, not duplicate work of existing mechanisms Draw fully on international scientific community No new international organization, but clearly defined terms of reference Should evolve incrementally, following Framework guidelines Form should follow function GEO 5 Once an agreement to the governance question is in place, we will be working towards finalizing the Implementation Plan, the Technical Blueprint and the ministerial Communique. Both the Implementation Plan and ministerial Communique will be fully negotiated, and hopefully agreed to for the most part by the conclusion of GEO 5 which is scheduled for November 29-30 in Ottawa, Canada. Only 75 days separate the GEO 5 meeting and the final Earth Observation Summit in February 2005, so much work will have to be done between now and then, and GEO 5 in Ottawa is critical to our success. Near Term Observation Activities: In the meantime, we need to be thinking about near-term observation projects that will fill some of the most pressing gaps in our capacity – as my South African Co-Chair puts it the “low-hanging fruit.” Just before the Earth Observation Summit II in Tokyo, the US hosted a G8 Science Ministers meeting to discuss progress on the Science and Technology Action Plan from the Evian meeting. The participants in that meeting strongly endorsed the activities of GEO in working toward a comprehensive long-term plan, but they also discussed areas of partnership that can be undertaken somewhat quickly, and at relatively low cost compared to the benefit gained. Each minister was asked to forward ideas in advance of that meeting to facilitate the discussion. The US submitted four papers on monitoring sea level rise, operationalizing satellite altimetry, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) use in addressing disasters, and improving global land observing capacity. Although I was unable to attend that meeting due to the ongoing GEO meeting in Tokyo, my understanding is that the discussion on these and other ideas was productive and plans are being made for a follow-up meeting later this year. U.S. Discussion Papers for G8: Sea Level Rise Just for a moment, I’d like to take off my “GEO hat” and put my “NOAA hat” back on to talk a little about the US discussion papers at that meeting. Global sea level rise is a high priority issue that requires strengthened international cooperation in the sustained collection of high-quality observations as the basis for sound decision-making. Present estimates of globally averaged sea level rise – based on historical tide gauge records and a decade of observations by the U.S. (NASA)/France (CNES) TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason-1 altimeter satellites – are anywhere from 1 to 3 mm/year, more likely 1.5 to 2.0 mm/year. The major causes of uncertainty in these estimates result from inadequate observations of: Sea level by tide gauges, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, due to poor data reporting (both quality and timeliness), as well as vertical movement of the land Sea level by satellite altimetry, due to the relatively short record Changes in the volume of the ocean, due to changes in the temperature and salinity structure of the ocean Changes in the mass of the oceans, due to changes in the volume of glaciers and ice caps, as well as storage by lakes and reservoirs. The U.S. discussion paper pointed out several specific steps that can be taken to address these observational gaps: About 170 tidal gauges, reporting hourly data in real time, and with co-located GPS receivers to measure the vertical movement of land At least three decades of coverage by satellite altimetry Continuing observations of the upper-ocean temperature and salinity structure by a global array of 3,000 Argo profiling floats Improved understanding of the re-distribution of water mass on the surface of the Earth U.S. Discussion Papers for G8: Operationalizing Altimetry The discussion paper on operationalizing altimetry pointed out that, beginning in 1960, the U.S. has launched a continuing series of more than 50 operational polar-orbiting satellites. While these satellites serve a range of users, their principal purpose has been to provide meteorological observations in support of operational weather forecasting. But with limited exceptions, the international community has not yet implemented a continuing operational capability to collect oceanographic observations. The paper suggested that the G-8 nations should build on the partnerships already in place (such as the extensive collaboration between the U.S. and France with TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1), and strongly support the participation of operational environmental agencies in programs that bridge between research and operations. G8 Science & Technology for Sustainability Action Plan/Progress Report As you all know, the G8 just concluded its 2004 meeting in Sea Island, Georgia, and released its 2004 Science and Technology for Sustainability Action Plan and Progress Report. The Action Plan/Progress report noted the two Earth Observation Summits held since the Evian Summit, the work of GEO, the adoption of the Framework, and the ongoing progress at developing a 10-year plan. Wrap Up: A comprehensive system of systems will necessarily build upon and capitalize on the work that organizations like the WMO have been conducting for many years. In essence, we are standing on the shoulders of groups like yours and the scientific discoveries that have led us to this place in time. As an author, a naturalist and a keen observer of the great outdoors, Henry David Thoreau once said: "All this worldly wisdom was once the amiable heresy of some wise man." We’ve come a long way from the “flat earth” theories of the past, but we still have so much to learn about this planet. The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) will indeed provide a fresh perspective of the mysteries of Earth, and will put us on a path to new discoveries and a new understanding of the planet Conclusion: I hope I have provided you with some insight as to where we have come from over the past year and where GEO is going. I’d like to encourage those of you who are from countries who are not members in GEO to take this information back and consider joining us. Again, speaking as a co-chair of GEO, your active engagement in developing GEOSS is greatly appreciated within our community, and we look forward to WMO’s continued contributions and leadership in the field of Earth observations.