Emergency Managers

National Situation Update: Sunday October 10, 2004

Orange (HIGH) for Financial Services Sector of New York City, Northern New Jersey, and Washington, DC.
Yellow (ELEVATED) for the rest of the country.

FEMA Weather Updates for Tropical Storm Matthew Will Be Issued at: 5:30 a.m., 11:30 a.m., 5:30 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. daily.

Tropical Storm Matthew
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located 90 miles southwest of Grand Isle, Louisiana.

Matthew is moving toward the north-northeast near nine mph. The storm’s northward motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts and little change in strength is expected before landfall. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles mainly to the east of the center.

The center of the storm will reach the coast within the warning area later this morning, Sunday, October 10, 2004.

A Tropical Storm warning is in effect from the Alabama-Florida border westward to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. Coastal flooding of two to four feet above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous waves will continue in portions of the warning areas. Additional rainfall accumulations of three to five inches with isolated higher amounts can be expected near and to the east of the path of Matthew.

The collapse of an earthen dam on Friday October 9, 2004 in Lamar County, Mississippi was the result of a contractor attempting to install new drain equipment and not the result of rising waters or rain generated by the approach of Tropical Storm Matthew. Local residents and law enforcement officials scrambled Friday afternoon to keep watch over the area's bridges, streams and homes when the dam gave way, sending the contents of the 90-acre lake downstream into the Bay Creek community. No damages or injuries were reported when the dam gave way. The state’s Department of Environmental Quality had not been notified in advance of the work, as required. (NWS/NHS and DHS/NICC)

Other Tropical Activity
Western Atlantic:
At 5 a.m. EDT, the center of Subtropical Storm Nicole, the fourteenth named storm of the season, was located about 80 miles west-southwest of Bermuda. The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph. A mostly northward motion is expected for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 345 miles center. Based on this forecast Nicole is not a threat to U.S. interests, equities, or territories.

Central North Pacific between 140 and 180 West:
A tropical disturbance near 10°N 164°W, about 875 miles south- southwest of Honolulu Hawaii, continues to move west near 10 mph. Although thunderstorms are occasionally developing with this system, it remains unorganized, and development, if any, will be slow to occur.

A tropical disturbance near 17°N 149°W, about 475 miles east- southeast of Hilo Hawaii, is moving west near 15 mph. Upper level winds are not favorable for development, and this system is becoming an open trough. Therefore, it is no longer being considered as an area that will develop into a tropical cyclone.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Monday evening, October 11, 2004.

Western Pacific:
The final warning has been issued on Typhoon 26W (Ma-On) as it dissipates in the North Pacific is not a threat to U.S. interests, equities, or territories. (NWS/NHC/CPHC/JTWC)

Mount St. Helens Update
Mount St. Helens Update, Saturday, October 9, 2004, 8:30 p.m., EDT.

Current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE.

Seismic activity has remained at a moderate, but variable rate. Currently earthquakes up to magnitude 2 are occurring at a rate of about one every two to three minutes. No visual observations of the crater, the 1980-86 lava dome, or the intensely deforming and uplifting area on the south side of the dome, were possible due to low clouds. No Federal or State scientists worked in the field on Saturday, October 9, 2004.

Additional analysis of LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) and photographs of the intensely uplifting area on the south side of the lava dome suggests that the total volume change represented by the deformation between late September and October 6, 2004 is about 16 million cubic meters (21 million cubic yards).

The average rate of change is about two million cubic meters per day (2.6 million cubic yards per day). If this figure represents the rate of intrusion of magma into shallow levels of the dome and/or underlying crater floor, it is an intrusion rate about twice that measured during dome-building eruptions at Mount St. Helens in the 1980s.

As a result of the intense unrest of the past 11 days, the US Geological Survey (USGS) infers that magma is at a very shallow level.

USGS characterizes the earthquake activity as being low until Friday, indicating molten rock was moving upward with little resistance. By Saturday, October 9, 2004, however, quakes of magnitude 2.4 were occurring every one to two minutes at levels equal to or higher than the October 5, 2004 steam and ash eruption.

A bubble on the south side of the dome has also risen to at least 100 meters (330 feet) since scientists first spotted it on September 30, 2004 and is now almost as tall as the dome's 300-meter (1,000-foot). According to USGS, the blister is a rather remarkable event as it infers magma is less than a mile below the surface. Scientists will monitor the bubble’s bulge to see how its movement relates to the seismic activity.

Mount St. Helens’ earthquake activity is expected to ebb and flow, and the most likely scenario now is weeks or months of occasional steam blasts and possibly some eruptions of fresh volcanic rock. In order to raise the alert level, USGS said an eruption would have to be imminent or occurring. However, USGS geologists and seismologists have said there is little chance of anything similar to the blast on May 18, 1980, that blew 400 meters (1,300 feet) off the top of the peak, killing 57 people and covering much of the inland Pacific Northwest with gritty volcanic ash.

During times of unrest, Mount St. Helens and similar volcanoes elsewhere typically go through episodic changes in level of unrest over periods of days to weeks, or even months. Such changes are in part driven by variations in the rate of magma movement.

USGS continues to expect fluctuations in the level of unrest to continue during coming days. Escalation in the degree of unrest and perhaps an eruption could occur suddenly or with very little warning.
There may be little time to raise the alert level before a hazardous event occurs. Therefore, USGS will continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert level as warranted.

Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), combined with eruption models, show winds early this evening will remain westerly becoming northwesterly later. Any ash clouds will drift eastward (tonight, Saturday, October 9, 2004) and southeastward (early tomorrow morning, Sunday, October 10, 2004).

Temporary flight restrictions are in effect within five nautical mile radius of the lava dome, but no impact to international airports in Oregon and Washington.

Limited road, trail, and area closures are in place within 12 miles of Mount St. Helens to protect public safety and limit incidental access to the area.

There are no evacuations underway and no shelters are open.

Until further notice, the USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory will be open normal business hours.

Region X Regional Operations Center (ROC) is staffed at Level III. ROC staffing is at ‘Watch’ level between 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m., Saturday, October 9, 2004 through Monday, October 11, 2004.
The Unified Command of the Emergency Coordination Center and the Joint Information Center for the Mt. St. Helens incident is comprised of the USGS, the US Forest Service, and Federal, State and county agencies.

The Washington State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is open and operating at a Phase II. They are working with the Unified Command of the Emergency Coordination Center and the Joint Information Center in Vancouver, Washington to monitor the situation.

Although no county EOCs are open, the following Washington state agencies are participating in the development of a contingency incident action plan: Washington State Emergency Management Division, Department of Natural Resources, Military Department, Department of Transportation, Washington State Patrol, Department of Ecology, Department of Health, Department of Agriculture, Department of Parks and Recreation, Department of Fish and Wildlife.

The Sunday, October 10, 2004 media briefing will be held at the Headquarters of the Gifford Pinchot National Forest at 10:30 a.m. (U.S. Geological Survey, Vancouver, Washington, University of Washington, Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network, Seattle, Washington, Region X)

Glaciers
In addition to its recent seismic activity, Mount St. Helen’s is also growing the nation's newest glacier growing in its crater. Although the 1980 eruption that blew the top off Mount St. Helens also destroyed the 13 glaciers on the volcano's flanks, by 1982, the crater floor had cooled enough to allow snow to begin to stick. Now, even as the volcano stirs to life, the nation's newest glacier is growing between the lava dome and the crater's south wall.

At a time when most of the nation's glaciers are receding, this one has advanced as much as 135 feet annually, flowing downhill toward the blasted north edge of the crater encircling the neck of the lava dome. It is the only growing glacier in the contiguous United States according to the USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory.

Mount St. Helens, a 8,364-foot volcano, is an ideal incubator for the fledging glacier as the crater's walls have protected the snow, preventing it from melting year to year and rockfall from the crater walls and the dome provides sufficient insulation in conjunction with the complementary insulation provided by the ever-present volcanic ash.

The glacier is 3,500 feet wide between the south side of the lava dome and the crater wall. Some parts are 600 feet deep, although the average is 325.

The still-unnamed glacier contains about 120 million cubic meters of snow, ice and rock, of which 40 million cubic meters of that is rock. Federal, State, and private sector scientists are calculating now how much water that is present in the growing glacier.

Researchers were trying to evaluate the glacier's potential hazards even before Mount St. Helens became active again on September 23, 2004 with thousands of small earthquakes, followed by intermittent venting of steam clouds sometimes mixed with ash. The south side of the lava dome has been rising for the past week, indicating molten rock within the volcano is moving upward. Currently, underground pressures are lifting both ice and stone almost as high as the 1,000-foot-tall lava mound.

Although the recent activity at Mount St. Helens is lifting part of the glacier, melting of the glacier would require an eruption having the energy to break up an enormous amount of material.

According to USGS, the rate of melt is the critical factor in the hazard analysis. About half of any glacial melt would flow into Spirit Lake, just north of the crater, and the rest would flow west, down the valley formed by the North Fork of the Toutle River, to a sediment retention dam.

Although a lake has formed in one of two explosive pits in the glacier and is now bubbling with carbon dioxide gas from the magma, there is little likelihood that the heat of the volcano will melt a significant amount of the glacier. (USGS, USGS-CVO, and Various Media Sources)

Earthquake Activity
Typical activity along the Pacific Coast from Southern California to Alaska and Hawaii, the most significant was a magnitude 3.3 event in central Alaska. (USGS)

Wildfires
National preparedness level 2 on a scale of 1 to 5. The National Fire News will be updated on Mondays and Fridays unless wildland fire activity increases. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Major Disaster Declaration Activities:
No Activity Reported (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs)
No Activity Reported (FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grants
No Activity Reported (FEMA HQ)