Emergency Managers

National Situation Update: Monday, October 11, 2004

Orange (HIGH) for Financial Services Sector of New York City, Northern New Jersey, and Washington, DC.
Yellow (ELEVATED) for the rest of the country. (FEMA HQ)

The FINAL warning on Tropical Depression Matthew was issued at 5:30 p.m., October 10, 2004.

Tropical Depression Matthew causes flooding southeast Louisiana
Tropical Storm Matthew, the thirteenth named storm of the 2004 hurricane season which runs between June 1 and November 30, weakened Sunday, October 10, 2004 after making landfall in and then moving into southern Louisiana, causing scattered flooding as heavy rain drenched the area. Up to 12 inches of rain flooded streets and homes in southeastern Louisiana, according to the National Weather Service. No injuries were reported.

The tropical storm warning along the Gulf of Mexico from the Alabama-Florida state line westward to Intracoastal City, Louisiana has been discontinued and the flood watch that was in effect for south-central Louisiana has been cancelled.
All tropical storm warnings for states bordering the Gulf of Mexico have been discontinued.

The National Hurricane Center issued what it expected to be its last advisory for Matthew late Sunday morning, when its sustained wind had slowed to about 35 mph and its poorly defined center was about 40 miles west of New Orleans.

The storm was expected to continue to weaken as it moved farther inland

Reported damages included a canal levee that breached in Terrebonne Parish, causing flooding in about a dozen homes. Officials patrolled flooded streets and blocked motorists from driving into lower St. Bernard Parish southeast of New Orleans, where up to two feet of water filled the roads. New Orleans received about three inches of rain Saturday and Sunday and saw scattered power outages.

Some locally heavy rainfall associated with the remains of Tropical Storm Matthew will affect portions of the South from Oklahoma to the Florida panhandle, but any thunderstorms should remain below severe limits. The same areas are likely to be affected by rainfall during the day Monday, with heavy rain moving into the Florida peninsula. However, severe weather is not anticipated on Monday, October 11, 2004. (NOAA and Various Media Sources)

Subtropical Storm Nicole to brush by Bermuda, New England, Maritimes
Subtropical Storm Nicole, is the fourteenth named storm in an active Atlantic hurricane season which runs from June 1 to November 30, brought gusty winds across Bermuda on Sunday, October 10, 2004, and could slightly impact parts of eastern New England and Canada's Maritime provinces by Wednesday, October 13, 2004.

Nicole may build and strengthen as it merges with another Atlantic system on a track that takes it north and then northeast over the next few days. Nantucket and Cape Cod in Massachusetts and the coasts of Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia may feel the storm's outer effects, with 45 mph winds stretching out 200 miles from the center.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, October 10, 2004, Nicole's center of circulation and convection was about 100 miles west of Bermuda and the system was nearly stationary. A northward motion was expected later Sunday evening into Monday.

Nicole does not meet the definition of a tropical storm and probably will not because it lacks the classic strong core winds and heavy showers. However, the empty-centered storm, defined as subtropical, is ringed by bands of 45 mph winds that could generate wind-driven rain showers and storm surges in and along coastal areas in it path. (NOAA and Various Media Sources)

Mount St. Helens Update
As of October 10, 2004, 8:00 p.m., EDT: Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE.

Seismic activity remained at a low level yesterday, Sunday, October 10, 2004. Currently, small earthquakes (about magnitude 1) are occurring on or near the mountain at a rate of about one per 5 to 10 minutes and very small earthquakes are occurring at a rate of about one per minute.

Visual observations and thermal imaging of the crater, the 1980-86 lava dome, and the intensely deforming and uplifting area on the south side of the dome were made during the early afternoon.
The deforming area has increased in area by about 10 percent since last seen on 7 October. Estimate of change in height awaits further analysis. A steam plume originating at vents on the deforming area is rising above the crater rim and drifting to the southeast.

A dusting of ash on new snow high on the volcano suggests that minor ash emission may be occurring intermittently. Installation of a remotely controlled video camera provided by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory began late in the day at “Sugar Bowl,” which lies at the eastern side of “The Breach,” the open north end of the 1980 Crater.

As a result of the intense unrest of the past 11 days, the US Geological Survey (USGS) infers that magma is at a very shallow level. During times of unrest, Mount St. Helens and similar volcanoes elsewhere typically go through episodic changes in level of unrest over periods of days to weeks, or even months.

Such changes are in part driven by variations in the rate of magma movement. USGS expects fluctuations in the level of unrest to continue during coming days. Escalation in the degree of unrest and perhaps an eruption could occur suddenly or with very little warning. There may be little time to raise the alert level before a hazardous event occurs.

USGS continues to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert level as warranted.

Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), combined with eruption models, show winds early this evening will remain northwesterly. Any ash clouds will drift south-southeastwardly to southeastwardly.

Observed Volcanic and Seismic Activity, Sunday, October 10, 2004:

• Mount St. Helens vented a new column of steam.
• The billowing column of steam rose from an area where a large upwelling or bulge of rock has been growing on the dome-shaped formation of rock in the crater. The plume rose several hundred meters (feet) above the 2,509-meter (8,364-foot) volcano, and light wind slowly blew it toward the south and southeast.
• The venting reminded scientists of the volcano's activity 20 years ago, when it built the dome following its catastrophic 1980 eruption.
• Geologists and seismologists with the US Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory (USGS-CVO) stated that the activity and view were reminiscent of the years in the 1980s during dome-building and a few years after when the system was hot and water was being heated and vapor was rising and steam clouds were forming.
• The plume appeared to be mostly steam, and scientists said any volcanic ash that was included was probably from past eruptions during the 1980s. The venting probably was produced by a combination of rainwater percolating down to hot rocks and volcanic gas coming from deeper levels.
• The steam emission followed an increase in earthquake activity over the previous two days, with quakes of magnitude 2.4 occurring every two minutes until Sunday, when the vibrations were more frequent but weakened to magnitude one or less.
• USGS-CVO and Washington State personnel stated that it is peculiar that a disproportionate number of these earthquakes are uniform in size indicating that the pressure in the system is very uniform and suggesting that magma is constantly moving upward.
• Although scientists do not know exactly where the magma is, they do not anticipate anything similar to the May 18, 1980, blast that killed 57 people, blew 400 meters (1,300 feet) off the top of the peak and covered much of the inland Pacific Northwest with ash. (USGS, USGS-CVO, and Various Media Sources)

Hurricanes Result in Emergency Work in Pennsylvania Coalfields
Rain from Hurricanes Ivan and Jeanne last month have kept emergency workers from the Department of the Interior's Office of Surface Mining, Reclamation and Enforcement (OSM) busy responding to reports of subsidence and flooding from abandoned coal mines in northeastern Pennsylvania.

Hurricane Jeanne caused two to three inches of rainfall to fall on already saturated northeastern Pennsylvania September 28, 2004 adding to flooding problems already caused by six to eight inches of rainfall from Hurricane Ivan on September 17-18, 2004. Six of the 13 projects related to Hurricane Ivan have been completed and six of the remaining seven are scheduled to be completed during the week of October 11, 2004.

As a result, emergency operations staff from OSM's Wilkes-Barre Office investigated 14 new emergency situations caused by Jeanne at the same time that 13 projects resulting from Ivan were being reclaimed. Thus far, only one other Abandoned Mine Land (AML) emergency has been declared from the Jeanne rains.

Since September 20, 2004, the office has investigated 68 AML complaints and incidents. The majority of these incidents involved the creation of voids and gaps, sinkholes, and near-surface earth movements (subsidence) and surface erosion due to flooding.

• Subsidence: Any surface expression such as caving, potholes, troughs, tension cracks, or shearing faults caused by AML underground mine voids.
• Erosion: Any expression caused by AML-originated silt and debris sedimentation carried downstream by surface runoff or by mining spoil pile and bank, mine waste, or earth material disturbed by mining activity that would be eroded and carried downstream by surface runoff and deposited in a stream bed.

By and large, all AML-related land mass slide of surface-subsurface soil, mine waste pile or bank, or surface mine spoil are naturally unstable due to their own weight and/or the or lubricating effects of mine drainage water.

Although no one knows the exact number or location of all abandoned surface and underground coalmines in this country, Federal, State, local, and private sector experts do know that hundreds are scattered across the American countryside, primarily in the eastern coal-producing states, such as Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, and Kentucky.

In western states like Colorado, Arizona, Montana, and Utah there are also abandoned "hard-rock" non-coal mines that pose additional dangers.

Hazardous abandoned mine problems include open shafts and horizontal openings resulting from underground mining and high, unstable, vertical cliff-like walls, dangerous water bodies, rusting machinery, and defective explosives from surface mines.

Many of these hazards are the result of mining that occurred many years ago -- some before the turn of the century. (US Department of the Interior, Office of Surface Mining)

Winter Weather Notes
Sunday, October 10, 2004 was the 25th anniversary of the earliest snowfall ever in the metropolitan Washington, DC area. On October 10, 1979, up to three inches of snow fell on Prince George's, County, Maryland and Fairfax County, Virginia and 0.3" was recorded at Reagan National Airport. Only two other times had measurable snow accumulated in Washington, DC in October: October 19, 1940 and October 30, 1925.

At present, there are no organized snowstorms, or winter weather patterns in the lower 48 states.
The heavy snow warning has been cancelled for the Ruby Mountains and the East Humboldt Range, northern Elko County, southwest and south central Elko County, and the independent cities of Elko and Jackpot, Nevada have been cancelled.

The low-pressure system and associated frontal system have weakened and no further threat of heavy snow is expected. (NOAA and Various Media Sources)

Other Tropical Activity
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves in the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific for development. Conditions are not favorable for further development and strengthening.

In the Western Pacific, there are no active tropical cyclones. (NWS/NHC/CPHC/JTWC)

Earthquake Activity
Typical activity along the Pacific Coast from Southern California to Alaska and Hawaii, the most significant was a magnitude 3.6 event near Kodiak Island Alaska.

Although September and October 2004 have experienced a significant number of noticeable earthquakes, over 30 registering 5.0 or more on the Richter Scale, along the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” no tsunamis have been generated by these seismic activities.

There are currently no tsunami watches or warnings in effect for the US West Coast (Washington, Oregon, and California), Alaska, and British Columbia, Canada. (US Geological Survey)

Wildfires
National preparedness level 2 on a scale of 1 to 5..

The National Fire News will be updated on Mondays and Fridays unless wildland fire activity increases.

Critical fire weather (high and/or gusty winds and low relative humidity) areas have been identified and forecasted by the National Weather Service for northern California and central and southern Arizona. These areas will be in place for the next 24 hours. (National Interagency Fire Center and NWS)

Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs)
No Activity Reported (FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grants
No Activity Reported (FEMA HQ)