Emergency Managers

National Situation Update: Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Orange (HIGH) for Financial Services Sector of New York City, Northern New Jersey, and Washington, DC.
Yellow (ELEVATED) for the rest of the country. (FEMA HQ)

Weekly Weather Outlook
Yesterday the National Weather Service issued an Outlook for the Week. Highlights include:

• Much below normal temperatures expected for the eastern half of the nation October 15 - 17.
• A coastal storm with strong winds and locally heavy rain is anticipated from the mid-Atlantic coastal states to New England October 15 - 16.
• Continued flooding is forecast over portions of Florida, southern Georgia, and southeastern South Carolina October 15 - 17.
• Although timing is uncertain, one or more strong storms typical of the season are likely to bring gales to the Aleutians and parts of the west and south coast of Alaska.
• The wildfire risk continues across much of the far Southwest due to dry fuels and long-term drought.
• Long-term drought in the interior West will continue throughout the assessment period, with limited relief possible in some areas. (NWS)

Mount St. Helens Update
As of 5:45 pm, PDT, October 12, the current Volcano Advisory is Alert Level 2.

Volcanic rock has flowed to the surface of Mount St. Helens' crater, creating a new lava dome after weeks of seismic activity. Scientists had known for days that magma or molten rock was nearing the surface, as a bulge grew on the south side of the existing 300-meter (1,000-foot) lava dome and the increasingly hot rock gave off steam as it met water and ice in the crater. The bulge is now considered a new lava dome,

Seismic activity remained at a low, but gradually increasing level yesterday. Steam clouds hampered visual observations and thermal imaging of the 1980-86 lava dome and the new lava extrusion first seen yesterday afternoon. Conditions appeared similar to those of Monday afternoon, with high temperatures (up to 600 degrees C) around the fin-shaped lava extrusion in the western part of the uplift. The area of high temperature appears to have increased in size. Abundant steam continued to rise from the fin area to the crater rim.

A new instrument array was lowered onto the uplifting area Tuesday by helicopter. It contains telemetered seismic, GPS, and tilt instruments, as well as a microphone. It will provide critical information on rate of movement of the uplift as well as a close-in seismic station. Other fieldwork concentrated on improving satellite and radio telemetry systems. (USGS, media sources)

Wildfire smoke prompts modified Shelter in Place order for Bay Area
As of 1800 EDT, the Rumsey Fire has consumed 25,000 acres of brush and grass in steep hilly terrain in Napa and Yolo Counties north of San Francisco and Oakland and the fire had produced large amounts of smoke. An upper level inversion layer has trapped the smoke close to the ground and a north wind has pushed the smoke over the Bay Area prompting health officials to issue a modified ‘Shelter in place’ order for affected residents. At risk individuals, (Elderly and infants) were urged to stay indoors. So far, there are no issues with smoke either at San Francisco International or Oakland International Airports. The fire is burning in an area just north of Lake Berryessa (40 miles due north of Oakland).

Fire officials issued a voluntary evacuation for Lake Berryessa Estates, a community of 75 near the lake's northwest shore. A California Type-1 Incident Management Team is assigned with 754 firefighters. FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor the situation. (Region)

Active Tropical Cyclones
There are no active storms in the Atlantic or Caribbean.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression Fifteen-E intensified today and has become Tropical Storm Lester. At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Lester was about 50 miles northwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

Lester is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph along the coast of Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds are 40 to 45 mph.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches are possible. The current track shows Lester turning west and moving into the Pacific Ocean and away from U. S. interests by Thursday.

Western Pacific: Tropical Storm 27W (Tokage) was upgraded from a Tropical Depression Tuesday with maximum sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph. The center of TS 27W passed from east to west about 50 miles north of Guam and was more than 200 miles northwest of Guam at 5:00 am EDT today.

The National Weather Service in Guam issued a flood watch for the Mariana Islands effective 1:00 am through 4:00 pm Wednesday local time (11:00 am Tuesday to 2:00 am Wednesday EDT). The Watch includes Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have moved westward into the Mariana Islands head of Tropical Depression 27W. Total rainfall in excess of six inches is possible.

Earthquake Activity
A 5.7 magnitude earthquake occurred in the in the Samoa Islands at 5:03 pm EDT on Monday. The quake was more than 600 miles southwest of American Samoa. (US Geological Survey)

Major Disaster Declaration Activities:
No new activity. (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs)
No Activity Reported (FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grants
No Activity Reported (FEMA HQ)