Emergency Managers

National Situation Update: Friday, October 15, 2004

Orange (HIGH) for Financial Services Sector of New York City, Northern New Jersey, and Washington, DC.
Yellow (ELEVATED) for the rest of the country. (FEMA HQ)

Hurricane Update
According to the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center (NWS/NHC), the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been one of the busiest, deadliest, and most destructive in history.

While late in starting, there have now been 14 named storms thus far this season. Eight of these storms (Alex, Bonnie, Charley, Frances, Gaston, Ivan, Jeanne, and Matthew) made landfall in the US and Puerto Rico.

These devastating storms have resulted in 21 federal disaster declarations covering 13 states and Puerto Rico. Typhoons in the South Pacific have also caused considerable damage.

Over one million registrations for disaster assistance have been received from individuals seeking aid for hurricane disasters this year and total aid disbursed has exceed $1 billion.

Hurricanes and affected state/commonwealth/territory:

Jeanne: Florida and Puerto Rico
Ivan: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and New York,
North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia
Gaston: South Carolina and Virginia
Frances: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio
Charley: Florida and South Carolina
Pacific Typhoons Tingting: Guam (National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center and FEMA HQ)

Assessment of Hurricane Damage to the Gulf Oil Industry
In the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan, the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Minerals Management Service (MMS) continues to monitor the progress made by the oil and gas industry in returning to normal levels of operation in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

The Minerals Management Service is the federal agency in the US Department of the Interior that manages the nation’s oil, natural gas, and other mineral resources on the Outer Continental Shelf in Federal offshore waters.

Oil output in the GOM region has been reduced by 19.9 million barrels since September 13, 2004 because of Hurricane Ivan.

Daily production remains 471,328 barrels, or 28 percent.

It may take six months to restore production to 96 percent of pre-hurricane levels.

About 475,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) and about 1.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day (BCFPD) remain shut-in. Based on preliminary information supplied by operators, perhaps as much as 150,000 BOPD and 1.0 BCF/D of the shut-in production may be back on line by the end of October. For the longer term, about 96 percent of the normal daily GOM production, which is approximately 1.7 million BOPD and approximately 12.3 BCFPD of gas, should be back on line within six months.

During the past several weeks, industry has continued to assess damage to their Gulf of Mexico facilities caused by Hurricane Ivan. Of the 4,000 structures and 33,000 miles of pipelines in the Gulf, the MMS estimates that 150 platforms and 10,000 miles of pipelines were in the direct path of Hurricane Ivan.

Pipelines in mud slide areas off the mouth of the Mississippi River experienced failures and will take a significant effort to locate and repair because the pipelines are buried by as much as 20 to 30 feet of mud. Overall, twelve large diameter pipelines (10 inches or larger) were damaged in Federal waters.

Industry reports to MMS that seven platforms were destroyed and six platforms had major damage. Five drilling rigs had major damage. Production lost from five of the destroyed platforms is about 3,100 BOPD and nine million cubic feet of gas per day (MMCF/D). The other two destroyed platforms did not produce – one was a single disposal well and the other was a gathering facility.

Major damage examples include bent structural supports, rig derricks collapsed, production vessels and piping destroyed, helicopter landing decks overturned, and living quarters collapsed. Major damage does not include the loss of handrails or deck grating for example. (US Department of the Interior/Minerals Management Service)

Mount St. Helens Update
As of October 14, 2004, 9:15 p.m., EDT the current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE

Seismic activity remained at a low level.

Visual observations and thermal imaging of the crater were focused on the intensely deforming and uplifting area on the south side of the 1980-86 lava dome and the new lobe of lava in the western part of that area.

The area of both the uplift and the new lobe of lava have increased slightly since October 13, 2004.

Yesterday’s gas-sensing flight detected low levels of sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide, but no carbon dioxide.

Abundant steam continues to rise from the area of lava extrusion to the crater rim, from which it is being dispersed downwind.

Measurements taken yesterday of flow-rate and temperature in streams draining the crater showed no significant change from late September values.

Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), combined with eruption models, show that any ash clouds will drift southeastward.

Magma continues to be at a very shallow level and is extruding onto the surface and forming a new lobe of the lava dome.

Small emissions of steam and ash are possible. Reflection onto steam clouds of incandescence or glow from the hot rock and gases will be visible at night from some locations.

Lava-dome growth is a dynamic process and, as we observed in the mid-1980s, Mount St. Helens and similar volcanoes elsewhere typically go through episodic changes in level of activity over periods of days to weeks, or even months.

USGS expect fluctuations in the level of eruptive activity to continue. Escalation could occur suddenly. Therefore, we continue to monitor the situation closely and will issue additional updates and changes in alert level as warranted.

Under current conditions, small lahars (volcanic debris flows) could be triggered if hot material from the new lava extrusion swiftly melts glacier ice. Such lahars pose negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS), but could pose a hazard to people working or recreating along the river channel upstream of the SRS. Furthermore, due to weather and stream-flow conditions at this time of year, it is not unusual for rivers draining the volcano to contain high concentrations of sediment that turn the water murky.

Trails within a five-mile radius of the peak remained closed, with the alert level at mid-range. The Forest Service, however, reopened some roads and trails near the mountain.

Mount St. Helens has been the most active volcano in the lower 48 states and Canada during the past 4,500 years. Its 1980 eruption hurled debris nearly 20 miles north, killed 57 people and paralyzed much of the Northwest with gritty, machine-clogging ash.

A media briefing will be held October 15, 2004 at 1:00 p.m. PDT at Castle Lake Viewpoint in the Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument. However no additional such briefings are planned until conditions warrant them. Beginning October 15, 2004 there will be only one daily update, at approximately 11:00 a.m. (US Department of the Interior/US Geological Survey and National Park Service, US Department of Agriculture/US Forest Service, FEMA Region X, and Various Media Sources)

Major Disaster Declaration Activity
Effective October 11, 2004, Amendment No. 1 amends the notice of a major disaster for the State of South Carolina (FEMA-1566-DR), dated October 7, 2004, and related determinations. Notice is hereby given that the incident period for this disaster is closed effective October 11, 2004.

Effective October 14, 2004, Amendment Number 2 amends the notice of a major disaster declaration for the State of Louisiana (FEMA-1548-DR) to include the following area among those areas determined to have been adversely affected by the catastrophe declared a major disaster by the President in his declaration of September 15, 2004: Plaquemines Parish for [Categories C-G] under the Public Assistance program (already designated for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance (Categories A and B) debris removal and emergency protective measures, including direct Federal assistance, at 100 percent Federal funding of the total eligible costs for a period of up to 72 hours.

Effective October 14, 2004, Amendment Number 4 amends the notice of a major disaster declaration for the State of Florida (FEMA-1561-DR) to include the following areas among those areas determined to have been adversely affected by the catastrophe declared a major disaster by the President in his declaration of September 26, 2004: Brevard, Citrus, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Indian River, Lake, Levy, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Polk, Seminole, St. Lucie, Sumter, and Volusia Counties for Public Assistance [Categories C-G] (already designated for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance [Categories A and B], including direct Federal assistance, at 100 percent Federal funding of the total eligible costs for a period of up to 72 hours.)

Effective October 14, 2004, Amendment Number 5 amends the notice of a major disaster declaration for the State of Florida (FEMA-1561-DR) to include the following areas among those areas determined to have been adversely affected by the catastrophe declared a major disaster by the President in his declaration of September 26, 2004: Collier, Lee, and Miami-Dade Counties for emergency protective measures (Category B) under the Public Assistance program and Charlotte and Sarasota Counties for emergency protective measures (Category B) under the Public Assistance program (already designated for Individual Assistance.)

Effective October 14, 2004, Amendment Number 6 amends the notice of a major disaster declaration for the State of Florida (FEMA-1561-DR) to include the following areas among those areas determined to have been adversely affected by the catastrophe declared a major disaster by the President in his declaration of September 26, 2004: Broward County for Public Assistance and Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Clay, Columbia, Dixie, Duval, Flagler, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Madison, Nassau, St. Johns, Suwannee, Taylor, and Union Counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance.) (FEMA HQ)

Other Tropical Activity
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a number of tropical waves in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Eastern Pacific for development.

An area of convection near 12.3 north 102.9 west, approximately 370 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has improved over the past 12 hours. Formation of a significant tropical cyclone is possible within 140 nautical miles either side of a line from 12.1 north 102.5west to 13.8 north 106.8 west within the next 24 hours. Although available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time, the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good as the system continues to move west-southwest at five knots (six mph).

In the Western Pacific, Typhoon 27W (Tokage) and Tropical Depression 28W are not a threat to U.S. interests, equities, or territories. (National Weather Service/National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, and FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity
Typical activity along the Pacific Coast from Southern California to Alaska and Hawaii, the most significant was a magnitude 4.4 event near Rat Island in the Aleutians.

On October 15 2004, at 12:09 a.m., EDT, a 6.7 magnitude earthquake on the Richter Scale occurred in the Taiwan region (24.6 N / 122.7 E) 75 miles east-southeast of Taipei. No damage or injuries were reported and the earthquake was not sufficient to generate a damaging tsunami for the US west coast. (US Department of the Interior/US Geological Survey)

Wildfires

• National preparedness level 2 on a scale of 1 to 5.
• Rumsey Fire
• As of 7:00 a.m. local time Thursday, October 14, 2004 (10:00 a.m. EDT) the Rumsey Fire had consumed 38,616 acres in Napa and Yolo Counties, just north of Lake Berryessa, California.
  • Containment is estimated at 65 percent, with full containment projected for October 16, 2004. There are two injuries reported. The fire destroyed the Berryessa Lookout and damaged a radio repeater site.
  • The community of Guinda, Berryessa Estates, and Hidden Valley are no longer identified as threatened and the voluntary evacuations for Lake Berryessa Estates have been lifted.
  • There are no reports of any sheltering issues.
  • No homes are currently threatened. Major issue identified is the breezy north winds and inaccessibility to fire engines.
  • Reports indicate that wind may continue to drive the fire to the south/southwest and topography to drive the fire to the northwest.
  • FEMA Region IX will continue to monitor the situation. No request for a Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG) has been received at this time.
• Fred Fire
  • Wildfire closes U.S. 50 in the Northern California mountains
  • The Fred fire started Wednesday between Wrights Lake Road and Kyburz, and because of its proximity to U.S. 50, a main link between the San Francisco Bay area and South Lake Tahoe, the highway was shut down Wednesday, October 13, 2004 evening.
  • Fire officials told residents of this tiny Northern California mountain town to evacuate their homes Wednesday night because of a wildfire in the Eldorado National Forest that forced the closure of U.S. 50.
  • Besides Kyburz and the nearby hamlet of Silver Fork which also was evacuated, there are about 150 cabins in the area, mainly along the South Fork of the American River.
  • By Thursday, the fire had increased to about 1,500 acres. There was no estimate on containment.
• Powder Fire
  • To the south, firefighters are in their second week of fighting another wildfire that has burned more than 3,000 acres near Highway 88, another trans-Sierra highway.
  • That fire is located 17 miles east of Pioneer, between Bear River Reservoir and Salt Springs Reservoir.
  • The Power fire, named because of a nearby hydroelectric powerhouse, was 10 percent contained Wednesday night. Fire officials estimated that it would be fully contained October 30, 2004.
• The National Fire News will be updated on Mondays and Fridays unless wildland fire activity increases. (National Interagency Fire Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs)
No new activity. (FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grants
No new activity. (FEMA HQ)